[000:00:00;00] only they really believe it, because there is no ukraine, there are no ukrainians, and they cannot seize the year. why, because african-americans are fighting there, poles, and definitely with nato weapons of another explanation. in fact, here is the key, we are the key point, why they cannot win the battle in ukraine, they are fighting with a country that they have created in their heads, ukraine is so, so funny yes, and of course they cannot win with such a ukraine because we absolutely others especially since we are still changing, thank you, thank you, mr. oleksandr , we were in touch with the defense strategy expert center on foreign and security policy . well, we have valeriy chaly, send ukraine to the usa during 2015-19. congratulations, mr. valeria. good evening. congratulations, glory to ukraine. let's start with the topic of victory, because

it has become active again. just today, the deputy minister of foreign affairs of the russian federation, serhiy vershinin, in an interview with the zvezda tv channel, said that russia is ready to win from ukraine without any preconditions, but taking into account territorial realities, and in ukraine they say that no such negotiations can take place, and in the united states they say that ukraine itself must decide when the moment for negotiations will come, and in general, if it will ever happen, well, the question is absolutely correct, because we know historically many such conflicts, the more such large-scale wars, ended without negotiations in cases when there was no such clear capitulation as it was during the second world war, and then not everything happened so unambiguously, so the option is when there will be de-occupation

territories of ukraine even beyond the borders of ukraine and formally there will be no negotiations, it is possible, but of course it requires the strengthening of ukraine's capabilities with weapons and our capabilities at the front, and the second option, about which the question arises from time to time, is, in my opinion, now, well, it simply cannot be implemented and not only because in ukraine there is finally a very clear official position of volodymyr zelenskyi and the authorities that the peace formula introduced by the president does not affect the loss of the territory of ukraine, yes, that is, very clearly de-occupation back in march, you remember in istanbul it was very slippery such flight or uh, well, they walked a very dangerous line where they said that ukraine could discuss some kind of partial loss of territory there, there is no such discussion now thank god why am i saying thank god because i can’t imagine the situation well let’s

approach it pragmatically but all of us on the outside don't want peace , in fact they don't want peace, they want to stop a large-scale war , well, that is, a freeze, in fact, they want, just like the brazilian presidents, today i discussed with the president of the united states, he suggested let's form a coalition peacekeeping countries, let's just stop it as the russians want. as you said, they control everything they control , including stolen ukrainian objects such as zaporizhzhia. well, the territory and everything is fine , but now the question arises, can anyone in the world guarantee some kind of line is drawn on the map, we are told some stories about the kergeya, which is absolutely not suitable for ukraine , you understand, even from the point of view of pragmatics , that the only line of some kind will still be able to be controlled somehow, the borders of ukraine are sovereign

enshrined in international law, everything else - it will be so fujital, that is, it is very unreliable that it will even be difficult to even establish a truce for years or at least for a few months, so i think that it is absolutely not inappropriate and impossible even with from a pragmatic point of view, i am not talking about the fact that the ukrainians who are fighting, who are in the rear, they do not want to fight forever. we need a stable peace, provided with reliable security, so that we do not go out there until 3-5-7 years to stop this horde. and you understand that russia - this is a big country, they are there again they will stamp with their weapons and lick again. that is why such conversations do not suit us, and the fact that the partners, first of all the usa, understood this is a good signal, but on the other hand, valery , there is a statement from the white house that ukraine will supposedly decide on its own when the moment comes for peace talks and

on the one hand, it is good that we are delegated to solve this issue independently, but on the other hand, they allow us to sit down at the negotiating table with the russian federation, although our president and representatives of our government and the entire ukrainian people demonstrate that we are not going to do this do and we will go all the way to our victory, why then are there such statements, well, there is such a well-established phrase that any warriors end with negotiations well, i already said that there are cases when they do not end with a formal agreement, such as, for example, now the state of war between well, it remained with japan and russia during the soviet era, and in principle there was no peace treaty there, and it was not, and it is not to this day, that is why there are such cases in the world where it has been going on

for decades. i believe that there will be a lot of time left for prisoners of war and some kind of compensation. i don’t know in the form of retort or restitution or how it will be compensated. well, most likely there will be other mechanisms. it’s just that, let’s say , legal selection of the freeze. of those russian assets that were left without control and at the expense of this compensation for losses although this is very insufficient to compensate for everything that they did not do here, for this, certain conversations are needed, or there is another option, there is a great desire. for example, what is called grain corridor er, well, it’s like this. hmm, some strange decision during a large-scale war to find a loophole for some individual sectors where there are interests of third parties, so that they are there, well , the interests of the actually fighting parties. this is such a surrogate option, er, now they want. we want

to expand to metals a the russians want to expand to their needs, they want to pump steel ammonia through odessa, well, the truth is, they didn’t agree to it, so let ’s show them with these blows, uh, about the snake, which are completely inappropriate from a military point of view, but from my point of view, this is a signal that they show that they can attack the reliability of that grain corridor, well, or the possibilities there further on this southern flank, that is, they had such surrogate options that they also give us, so i don’t want to say that i rule out some negotiations there, but i just don’t see it in such a war as it is developing, will it be possible, it will not end like the second world war, it will be a different scenario, and if our allies, i say again , have taken such a position, well, rather, strategic

partners that ukraine will determine and in our in this case, you and i all know that it will already be determined , no matter what, not even the president himself, ukraine, only the ukrainian people, then this formula is suitable for us to help as much as we need, this formula is suitable, only i would like to add how much the ukrainian people need, valery, let's evaluate what is happening today between washington because we were preparing for the visit of the secretary of state of the united states anthony blinkin to beijing where his talks with this dengpin to talk about the ukrainian crisis by the way this was important part of these negotiations, especially against the background of the american media reports that china is secretly helping to disperse this war, and here this famous prisoner actually destroyed the situation, what's next. well, i'll say that

i can't claim to know the details what is happening there on a daily basis, yes, that is, in beijing itself, what is the struggle for proposals, and we just see the manifestations, and the manifestations are such for today, after all, china. how about you? well, there you say it secretly helps, but so far the facts that we have from the front are, well, hmm some chinese devices there but to say that china is so involved as iran or even north korea. we cannot, that is, china does not want to be. well, enter this war on putin's side in order to lose, that is, they definitely do not want this, and it is clear that they have completely different goals. they are trying to regulate the intensity of the war

in their own way. politically, in essence, russia yes. well, we see that they want to advocate for the territorial integrity of ukraine, but in essence , they should not engage in such a tri-neutral position towards china. has it changed ? unfortunately, it has not changed for the better for us after the congress and i carefully i read the materials of the congress well, the conclusion for me is the following from all of this, in fact, the lines are so filled up in the chinese manner, there is a promise that all the worries will solve the thai question in the coming years, that is, what does it mean to solve the thai question, is it control of china by beijing to taiwan, or will it be done by military measures or other well, this issue is not revealed, but the whole reform of the reform of the armed forces in china and where it is now in such and such a direction with

america, they have always had a relationship of competition and conflict for a long time, well, sometimes hostile, we have already seen manifestations of such pilosya went to thailand, took a test, they have now done their test, the e-mail is being groped to what extent the usa will be ready to react . the usa is reacting by introducing sanctions against companies that helped the russians. it was private chinese companies that really helped. but there is also european jurisdiction of a chinese company on pictures from space. -e conducting an operation on the territory of ukraine, that is, there are such moments. and thanks to the fact that the usa has imposed sanctions on this company . now they will have big problems in order to continue supporting russia in this way you know well, let's be honest, it's not prohibited by international law, that is, to provide, for example , space pictures to a private company of dreams, but we all understand that this is help

to the aggressor who violated the statute, so i 'm sure that the situation with this incident with the object is lethal it's just a balloon and the current tension will not lead to something so extraordinary that could affect china's position on supporting russia, not now, but in the future. well, it seems to me that china right now is these determines its final position with tests, plus, for sure, what are the steps in order to correct mistakes and go on the offensive again well, when this offensive fails again, i thought that china will clearly adjust its position and then already on our train, there are no questions because i i wanted to ask valeria about communicating with america, because the trumpists there

, let’s say from trump’s wing, the republicans registered a draft law, or rather a resolution about that from ukraine, which, of course, refers to stopping funding us and providing military weapons and so on. this is now a threat, considering that earlier they failed to balance aid to ukraine, and yet we had two-pronged support. now they still have a slight majority in the house of representatives. will it be a threat to us? well i will say the same wording of the name, it is not very pleasant. i do not remember that we are in the congress of the united states, something happened, it is characterized like this, no, i know, i read this draft of such a project, he is not against it, it is directed

against ukraine, no, that is, let's say yes the republic supports ukraine, and even personally we saw each of the signatories and initiators of this bill during this meeting with the approval of the speaker, and we saw each of them stand up and say their name , that is, i think that everyone who is interested in everyone has already understood who is who, i know some of them in the previous period, i will say that there are not ordinary people there, and we must take seriously their ability to shake up the situation, because in the usa there are elections and they are bidding for mccarthy's support for the speaker of the house representatives, in principle, they bargained for themselves positions according to the regulations of the committee on some others, that is, to extend something like that

. well, there is a lot of support from all republicans. they will not be able to work on some things , and they will be able to. yes, it blows cold , in fact, despite all our thanks and the fact that the usa has allocated huge resources for support today, but this is support for american security, national security, including these consulates, this is great understand, that is why they are obviously playing against president joseph biden and it will escalate , that is, as they explained to me at the time, there is nothing against ukraine. this is our internal struggle, but i am sorry when it affects the interests of world security. this is very serious. that is why we must work with them. we must not allow this bill went to the vote, we need our work, our diplomatic opportunities to stop this kind of initiative. i know from my experience if they managed to stop more serious things that

were being prepared there in the congress itself. there is always there were certain groups, well, actually, if even one senator blocked the voting procedure, well, there is such a procedure that is launched according to the fast procedure, one senator can say no and the vote does not take place, and it was possible to remove it even in such difficult cases, so i think that we need to work on our of services to the embassy and work individually , it is possible to connect kyiv more now another period of cooperation with the usa has come, already a period when it was easy when the president had full support from the two chambers of the tenrest, well, that is there was one government for two years. yes, it has already passed . now we will have to work more actively, but one point is very important . we still have to understand this timing, the time

frame in the usa, the elections were approaching the elections, when the focus of people's attention is just shifting to internal economic issues. jobs are a purely american issue and this will take place in france, where there are also elections . that is, we have to make sure that the victory of ukraine becomes the agenda of the main candidates in the elections in these countries, so that they go to the elections with such a slogan, and then and we were winning on the fronts, they were there and supported ukraine, well, regarding the usa, i will say briefly in conclusion that the time has come to apply the lend-lease procedure there, now our diaspora has written off one group opposite, i will say the time has come because abrams tanks could now be quickly delivered according to this procedure, 200 of the us marine corps were recently transferred to storage, they will give the opportunity

to do so er, sometimes it is possible that republican criticism can and will be beneficial, but it must be er with the support of ukraine, so i really hope that this bipartisan support will remain, because the task will be and the politician will do so in order to take anticipatory steps , we will hear his speech in poland in the near future. i think there will be some pleasant messages for us. we are looking forward to it . thank you, valeria. valery chaliy, the ambassador of ukraine to the usa during 2015-19 was in direct contact with us number we are moving on our guest director of the center for middle eastern studies ihor sami volos greetings mr. ihor mykolaya good evening so the tragic earthquake in turkey, which has a political dimension, many people are thinking about its consequences, and we are talking about the fact that any such

tragedy affects the power of the president , but he still wants to hold elections in may. do you think this tragedy improves his chances of getting vlad or not? you know, there is no definite answer here. on the one hand, they essentially led a state of emergency, and within this regime it is very difficult to actually hold elections and conduct normal campaigning. therefore, this regime will definitely work in favor of the government. c c we see how the government behaves sharply arresting various er and tectors who er in their opinion are guilty of the fact that most of the buildings that were built after 1999 fell down and a lot of other things that er are

aimed at demonstrating such willingness of the authorities to keep their finger on the pulse, on the other hand, without a doubt, it can be remembered that erdogan actually came to power to a large extent and criticizes the politician-admirer before the prime minister even before erdogan's time, who actually lost the elections against the background of criticism about the unpreparedness of the country for the earthquake that occurred then and precisely then, numerous norms were changed that provided for changes in construction, and we see that in principle nothing happened, considering that construction companies usually try to be closer to the authorities, of course big questions arise here to erdoğan to those companies that built all these houses , well, in other words, this is nutritious food and opportunities for the opposition, er, to issue the hamburg bill

already, actually, when jergu is already issuing this bill, he is talking about it, er, he took advantage of this opportunity, how successful will it be for the time being, well, you take into account the fact that in fact the key problem of the turkish opposition is not the lack of material for criticism, including devastating criticism , the lack of a single candidate regarding poor-quality construction, you have already mentioned, but how to overcome the consequences of the earthquake the current government is succeeding now, because at the beginning there were complaints to rydogan that the rescuers were arriving late and not on the necessary scale, and so on, now for it will become a kind of test for him and his success in the upcoming elections will depend on this. well, we already understood that this is the black swan in everyone in the manifestations

of the black swan itself, and to what extent is it in the well possible maybe maybe it will affect the elections maybe eh this is so you can say mess that was observed although mess is eh turkish glass that is it is a little different story yes eh well that is actually what we observed during this very active phase er, well, it will affect in some way , maybe now we see just different pictures which are starting to appear in the turkish press, where the first place is the police action to prevent murders, thefts and the like, that is, it is not completely clear how it will work, but it is clear that i can

to say that there are huge economic losses, both infrastructural and housing stock, and actually people, and if erdoğan until this moment planned to give out, let's say conditionally , to his clients , to make social payments, that's right. it was during the elections it has been done here, now, in fact, in these social elections, it will most likely be done, it can also hit the positions of the virtual, well, of course, that is already in front, it has already been perfected, definitely not hmm well, let's say i did not expect that the situation could return in this direction, because in last year, as we know, his rating began to rise again and already his team rubbed their hands and believing that the victory was not in their pockets. well, if we talk about the turkish syrian track, this is what it will

look like, and look here, the turkish syrian track does not look like anything yet. uh, if we look at uh, certain uh, elements of the interaction that we are currently observing between turkey and syria in connection with the earthquake, it is quite possible, as well as in other cases, such as armenia, turkey, yes, where the armenians also provide help and this is perceived very gratefully by the turks, and here, in principle, the help of the turks by the sergians can also be a part of such a strategy of interaction and policy changes between these two countries. taking into account the fact that first of all if the negotiations so far

have ended in nothing and the hrytzgan under the pressure of russia well, i was ready to join with the as of the au, but i demanded preliminary requirements, the release of the territory, how will it be now, well, it is quite possible that this will actually have a positive effect on the relations between these two countries. i mean in a broader sense in the future this will allow us to quickly restore the full scope of relations . and tell me, how do you view the current situation in the middle east in connection with this tragic event? we can say that such a period of reconciliation is beginning, and turkey, israel, turkey, well, usually this is often the case. it happens, that is, these massive mass disasters, such human, great human grief, because it forces the countries that were at war to at least forget for a while about their

enmity, to return to some common human ideals and show their best qualities. but i, well i believe that this is a short period, after some time the situation will stabilize a little in the country , it will return to its usual rams , have you seen this interview with natalie benet, i say it became a sensation everywhere it could happen, even in hebrew, were you listening, are you not surprised that a person with the israeli government was led by such ideas about life . to be honest, i am in such a difficult situation .

they are fired upon every day ihor well, yes, it’s true, i don’t agree well, we have the same history as the history of any electoral democracy, when such a golden card can be played, and a man with his small a-a resource can as a result of interesting diplomatic moves, apida became prime minister, yes, well, that is, clearly he did not win those elections, but as a result of the difficulties and somersaults of the israeli electronic system , he became well, we have what we have, or rather, we had here in relation let's finally talk about china, and one of the last statements of the head of the chinese mission to the european union, futsun, and the politico publication quotes that in china , of course, they are concerned about the situation and the escalation

of russia's war against ukraine. for them, this is also an economic a-a certain inconvenience and so on. further i they are allegedly trying to convince the european union to put ukraine and russia at the negotiating table and not to provide weapons there, not to help and not to wait for our complete victory . do you think it has any kind of media under its belt? can china express whatever it wants and the european union does not pays attention well, i think uh well, china's position is important in any case even if we can not pay attention to it now ah because well, besides the fact that china is a permanent member of the un security council and in the future in any schedule china will play an important role in the negotiations, the final negotiations are already possible after the ukrainian victory, because at least i think for sure the americans will want

to see china among those countries that will determine the customs and peace of the world order or will confirm the counters of the existing world order, that is, in this case well, you can’t help but pay attention to the position of china on the other hand , there is nothing new here, that is, what we hear is nothing new there and they are constantly talking about it. and this is the usual rhetoric on the part of the chinese side, hmm, who obviously understands that the scenario that existed at the beginning of last year, that is, at the beginning of the war, it finally broke down and the chinese, in conditions where they do not know how they will develop, they take an otaku rather well

, such a cautious position with the maximum conciliatory rhetoric, but it should be remembered that china and india and other countries from this region, and in most cases , consider ukraine as a kind of imperial project of imperialism to destroy the great russia, and from these positions, it is also necessary to understand all these all their considerations, even the situation when they are grazing, it is possible that they secretly support moscow yes. in beijing, they began to take a tougher view of all these russian actions in central europe , fearing that they threaten chinese economic interests. well, for now, this will be