[000:00:00;00] er, we do not choose the whole er for the use of the weapons that we give to the ukrainians, but they can shoot at any targets, including in crimea, and there journalists questioned several times because the rhetoric has changed a little before and from our leaders, we have heard that there is such a gentleman's agreement that we will not use that dekabin weapon in the crimea, you know the crimean sacred thing, and if we guess, and we have already done it more than once, and hm, the truth is not, not by western systems, and the same kerch bridge and these airfields, and nothing happened, that is, there was no escalation and in principle it cannot happen and it could only be the use of weapons of mass destruction. again, we return to the question of deterrence and western deterrence, and we have heard more than once from former military personnel that this is american, this

is well, a good signal that even if weapons of mass destruction are used against ukraine, the answer will be that the russians will not be jealous, and absolutely, that in such a case putin's friends will fall away, the same hindus and the same the chinese and by the way, after the conversation between fizippin and biden, there was a statement that, in fact , a little cold shower fell on the head of this fuhrer of the russian peace, so i think that we should constantly remind the world and our western partners that nuclear deterrence works in both directions and is blackmail what is happening now in relation to ukraine cannot be tolerated because after a certain time something may happen, god forbid, for example in estonia, and what will they say then again why do we need the third world war which will destroy the whole world because putin can threaten

with nuclear weapons and let's give him this history or some other territory, that is, the logic is very simple, despite the fact that we are not members of nato, the issue of nuclear weapons is such a genie that cannot be let out of the bottle, and therefore this umbrella has a nuclear umbrella in relation to us to work as well moreover, the budapest memorandum was actually about this mr. oleksandr , the ukrainian authorities, in particular , the secretary of the national security and defense council oleksiy danilov, also reported on the accelerated russian offensive , and the minister of defense oleksiy reznikov spoke about it, literally in the next 10 days this can to take place on the eve of the anniversary of the full-scale invasion, we are talking only about the east, about the donetsk region directly, they say that from the south, from the southern part of the donetsk region, they can increase the escalation, also the melitopol region, the vicinity of bakhmut and ughledara, and maybe a-a hmm liman in the west of the luhansk region

are other regions of ukraine also under threat ? well , you know, there is a very good film by harrichi . what happened on february 24, 2022, none of them, even in ukraine and not in the west, could have predicted from the point of view of understanding the approximate potential of ukraine and the forces that the russians did not recruit or were not able to perform such tasks, and therefore we did not we can rule out that despite the year that has passed for the defeats that befell the russians, the second army of the world and definitely that they can do something like that yes, but if we say more or less eh, you smart people will definitely say yes in our own

this is the donetsk region because political is putin came to protect the danes from the ukrainian fascists, and that is why he has to get closer in a year at least not 500 m , as happened there in the last month, and a little more. the donetsk region to the crimea is certainly what is there and they understand that we are concentrating and we have to do something there, i certainly would not rule out some attempts here in the north, but they will definitely be useless because here it is more complicated. ready, most likely, if they do something like that, it will be such a scare of half of the attention, and here in this context, some people write here that this attack on the island is snake-like. it may somehow be a preparation, of course, such a threat is constant, but definitely not now , because

well, you know that the black sea was originally called an inhospitable sea by the greeks, because for most of the year it is a bit agitated there and does not give, and thank god , of course, that it is an advantage for us, but we cannot rule out some subversive actions in the direction of the snake is located in a strategic place at the entrance to the danube and it is certain that they would like to further harm the ukrainian export of the same grain and not at all give us the opportunity to operate in this area, it is certain that these actions that took place during the day and they aimed at this but also they are probing they are looking into our system beer er they definitely want to keep us at the threshold to what extent can it be considered in principle that er the russians do not want to hide with reality well, we see that it is you yevgeny

prigozhin says that it takes two years for the russian armed forces to occupy the entire donbas, to what extent do vladimir putin himself and the russian generals agree with this point of view. what do you think ? well, here the answer may actually be krylov. about how you don't sit down there and the musicians are not good there , that is, in principle. can not radically something to change because, in principle , the culture of this hierarchy, which is the most important problem, how can you say this is achilles' heel, and in the russian russian system, the political and you are so definitely and military, and therefore definitely that he may not see certain things, and secondly, i am sure that such tyrants are their disease of all tyrants, the patches of sick people are that they limit themselves to the closest such environment

that does not want to annoy and probably also provides distorted information to the fact that there is still a distorted picture of the world, what is there, for example they are fighting with nato yes there and all these are, well, i am absolutely sure that this is not a propagandist call, they really believe in it because there are no ukrainians in ukraine, and they cannot seize the year why because african americans are fighting there, there are poles and definitely nato weapons of another explanation, well, logically, you cannot have them in the world , that's why i think that this is a distorted and, in fact , a key point, why they can't win in ukraine, because they are fighting a war with the country that they created in their heads , ukraine. it's so much fun. yes, definitely that they can't win with such a ukraine. since we are completely

different . moreover, we are still changing. thank you. thank you. mr. oleksandr hara, an expert of the defense strategy center on foreign and security policy, was in touch with us. in the usa during 2015-2019 congratulations mr. valery good evening i congratulate you glory to ukraine glory to the heroes let's start with the topic of victory because it has become active again just today the deputy minister of foreign affairs of the russian federation serhiy vershinin in in an interview with the zvezda tv channel, he said that russia is ready to win from ukraine without any preconditions, but taking into account territorial realities, and in ukraine they say that there can be no such negotiations in the united states, they say that ukraine must decide for itself when the moment comes negotiations in general, will it ever come, the question is absolutely correct, because we know historically that many such conflicts, especially such large-scale wars, ended without negotiations in cases when there was no such

clear capitulation as it was during the second world war world and then not everything happened so unambiguously, that is why the option when there will be a de-occupation of the territory of ukraine from the ukrainian border and there will be no formal negotiations is possible, but of course it needs to strengthen ukraine's capabilities with weapons and our capabilities at the front, and the second option, about which period the question arises in my opinion, it simply cannot be implemented now, and not only because in ukraine there is finally a very clear official position of volodymyr zelenskyi and the authorities that the peace formula introduced by the president does not involve the loss of territory ukraine, that is, very clearly de-occupation back in march, you remember in istanbul it was very slippery such flight or er, well

, there were very dangerous lines where they said that ukraine could discuss some kind of partial loss of territory there, some kind of discussion now there is no such thing thank god why i say thank god because i can't imagine the situation. well, let 's be pragmatic. all of us on the outside don't want peace. in fact , they don't want peace. what do the brazilian president want? well, today he discussed with the us president, he suggested that we form a coalition of peacekeeping countries, and let's just stop it, as the russians want . well, as you said, they are controlled, that they control, including stolen ukrainian objects, such as the zaporizhia npp, the territory and everything is fine. but now the question arises , can anyone in the world guarantee some line drawn on the map, we are told some stories about the kergeya, which is absolutely not

suitable for ukraine, you understand even with from the point of view of pragmatism, the only line that will somehow be able to be controlled is the borders of ukraine , which are sovereign, fixed by international law. some will be even difficult, that is why i believe that it is completely inappropriate and impossible, even from a fragmentary point of view. security, so that each of us will not go out there until 3-5-7 years to stop this horde. and you do understand that russia is a big country, they will stamp their weapons there again, they will crawl again. therefore , such conversations do not suit us, and the fact that

the partners, first of all the usa, understood this a good signal, but on the other hand, mr. valery, there is a statement from the white house that ukraine will supposedly decide on its own when the moment of peace negotiations comes, and on the one hand it is good that we are delegated to solve this issue on our own, but on the other hand, they allow why are we going to sit down at the negotiating table with the russian federation, even though our president and representatives of our government and the entire ukrainian people demonstrate that we are not going to do this and we will go all the way to our victory, why then are there such statements, well, there is such an established phrase, whatever what kind of soldiers do the negotiations end? well, i already said that there are cases when they do not end with a formal treaty, such as the current state of war between japan and russia. well, it is left over from soviet times, and in principle there is no peace

treaty. and is not today, therefore, there are such cases in the world where this has been going on for decades, the impact of the sea will be needed from the point of view that it will already remain a lot of moments and for prisoners of war and for uh, some kind of well, really , compensation, i don’t know in the form of retort or restitution or how will it be compensated? well, most likely, there will be other mechanisms here , just er, let's say the right to freeze the selection of those russian assets that were left without control and at the expense of compensation for losses . although this is very insufficient to compensate for all that they didn't do it here, some conversations are needed, or there is another option, there is a great desire. for example, the so-called grain corridor is such a strange

decision during a large-scale war to find a loophole for some individual sectors where there are interests of third parties of the parties so that they are there, well, the interests of the belligerent parties are actually what they want now. we want to expand to metals. and the russians want to expand to their needs. they want to pump steel ammonia through odessa. well, the truth is that they did not agree to this, so let them now to show with these blows about the snake is completely inappropriate from a military point of view, but from my point of view, this is a signal that they are showing that they can attack the reliability of that grain corridor, or the possibilities there further on this southern flank, that is, the options they had that we they also give, so i, uh, i don’t want to say that i

rule out some kind of negotiations, but i just don’t see that in such a war as it is developing, that it will be possible, it will not end like the second world war, it will be a different scenario, and if our the allies, i say again, have taken this position. well, rather, strategic partners, what ukraine will determine, and in our case, we all know that it will be determined, no matter what, not even the president himself, ukraine , only the ukrainian people, then this formula is suitable for us to help as much as possible we need it, the formula is suitable, only i would like to add how much the ukrainian people need p valery, let's evaluate what is happening today between washington because uh, we were preparing for the visit of the secretary of state anthony blinkin of the united states to beijing, where his talks are a continuation of the conversation about the ukrainian crisis. this was an important part of these talks. all the more so against the background

of the american media reporting that china is secretly helping to diffuse this war, and here this famous balloon actually destroyed the e- in this situation, what's next? well, i'll say that i can't pretend that i know, in detail , what happens there on a daily basis, yes, that is, in beijing itself, what is the struggle for proposals, and we just see the manifestations, and the manifestations are such today, after all, china is what you think. well, you say it secretly helps, but so far the facts we have from the front, well, there are some chinese devices there, but to say that china is as involved as iran or even north korea. we cannot , that is, china does not want to be

in an effort to enter this war on putin's side in order to lose, that is, they definitely do not want this and it is clear that they have completely different goals, they are trying to regulate the intensity of the war in their own way they want advocate for territorially, the whole of ukraine, but in fact , i do not take such a tri-neutral position as an object of china. has it changed? unfortunately, it has not changed for the better for us after the congress, and i carefully read the materials of the congress . well, my conclusion is this. from all of this, in fact, behind the lines, in the chinese manner, there is a promise, these promises, to solve the thai question in the coming years, that is, what does it mean to solve the taiwan question, this is the control of china by beijing

to taiwan, that it will be done by military measures or other well, it is not disclosed the question, but the whole reform of the reform of the armed forces in china and where it is now in such a way with america, they have always had a relationship of competition and conflict for a long time, well, sometimes we have already seen manifestations of such hostility. the letter is being groped to what extent the usa will be ready to react . the usa is reacting by introducing sanctions against the companies that helped the russians. they really helped these private chinese companies. but there is also the european jurisdiction of the chinese company on pictures from space, uh, conducting an operation on the territory of ukraine, that is, there are such moments. and thank you that the usa imposed sanctions on this

company. now they will have big problems in order to continue supporting russia in this way , you know. well, let's be honest, it is not prohibited under international law, that is, to provide for example, to a private company , pictures, space pictures, but you all understand that this is help to an aggressor who has violated the un charter , so i am sure that the situation with this incident with the object is lethal it's just a balloon and the current tension will not lead to something so extraordinary that it could affect china's position on supporting russia, not now, but in the future. well, it seems to me that china is currently determining its final position with these tests, plus assurances of what it will do there are still steps to correct the mistakes and go on the offensive again. well, when this offensive fails again, i

thought that china will clearly adjust its position and then already in our favor you have no questions, because i wanted to to communicate with america and valeria, because there trumpists, let’s say from trump’s wing, the republicans have registered a draft law, or rather a resolution on that from ukraine, which of course refers to stopping funding us, providing us with military weapons , and so on. this is now carrying some kind of threat , given that before they did not succeed in unbalancing the aid to ukraine, and yet we had bipartisan support, now they still have a slight majority in the house of representatives, will it be a threat to us, well, i will say the same formation

name it is not very pleasant i do not remember such a thing in the congress of the united states what they are called it is characterized like this no i know i read this project of such a project he is not against it it is directed against ukraine no that is to say the republic supports ukraine and even personally we saw each of participants of the signatories of the initiators of this bill during this pp with the approval of the speaker, yes, they saw everyone standing up and saying their name, that is, i think that everyone who is interested in everyone has already understood who is who i know some of them from the previous period, i will say that they are not simple people there, and we must take seriously their ability to shake up the situation, because in the usa there are elections and during the bidding for mccarthy's support, they bargained for the speaker of the house of representatives, in principle

positions on the regulatory committee on some others, that is, to extend something like that. well, there is a lot of support from all republicans. they will not be able to do some things . yes, it blows cold, in fact, despite all our thanks and the fact that the usa has allocated huge support resources for today, but this is the support of american security, national security , including these consuls , understand this very well, so they are obviously playing against president joseph biden, and it will be escalate, that is, as it was explained to me at one time, there is nothing against ukraine. this is our internal struggle, but i am sorry when it affects the interests of world security. this is very

serious. therefore, we must work with them. we must not to allow this draft law to go to the vote, our work is needed, our diplomatic capabilities are needed to stop this kind of initiative. i know from my own experience that it was possible to stop more serious things that were being prepared there in the congress itself. there were always certain groups, well, actually, if even one senator blocked the voting procedure , well, there is such a procedure that they start according to the fast procedure, one senator can say no , the voting does not take place, and it was possible to remove it even in such difficult cases because i think that it is necessary to work on our services to the embassy and to work on individualizing to connect kyiv more now we have entered another period of cooperation with the usa already a period when it was easy when there were about two chambers of tenresti

, well, that is, there is such a single government, it was two years yes, it has already passed, now we will have to work more actively, but one point is very important, we still have to understand this timing, the time frame in the usa, the elections were approaching the elections, when the focus of people's attention is just shifting to internal economic issues jobs are a purely american issue, and this will take place in france , where there are also elections. that is, we have to make sure that the victory of ukraine becomes a commonplace for the main candidates in the elections in these countries, so that they go to the elections with such a slogan, and then we win on the fronts, they are there and supported ukraine well, regarding the usa , i will say briefly in conclusion that the time has come to apply the lend-lease procedure there, now our diaspora has written off

one group opposite, i will say the time has come because the abrams tanks would be possible now quickly deliver according to this procedure 200 tanks of the us marine corps, which were recently transferred to storage, will give the opportunity to do so uh, sometimes it is possible that republican criticism can and will be beneficial, but it should be for ukraine, so i really hope that this bipartisan support will remain and joseph biden is wise a politician , he will do this in order to er take anticipatory steps, we will hear his speech in poland in the near future. i think some messages that are pleasant to us will sound like this. joined our air valery chaliy, the ambassador of ukraine to the usa during 2015 in the 19th year was with us as a line of communication number let's move on our guest director of the center for middle eastern studies ihor samami volos congratulations mr. ihor

good day good evening so the tragic earthquake in turkey, which has a political dimension, many people are thinking about its consequences, and we are talking about the fact that any such tragedy affects the possibilities of the president's power, udogan still wants to hold elections in may. what do you think about this tragedy, it improves his possibilities to keep the government or not to keep the government or vice versa. you know, there is no clear answer here. on the one hand, they essentially led a regime of emergency time, and within this regime it is very difficult to actually hold elections and conduct normal campaigning . therefore, this regime will definitely play in favor of the government. well, we see how does the government behave sharply, arresting various uh and architects who uh, in their opinion, are guilty of the fact that

most of the buildings that were built after uh, 99 fell down, and a lot of other things that uh are aimed at demonstrating such readiness of the authorities to keep their finger on the pulse, on the other hand, without a doubt, it can be remembered that erdogan actually came to power to a large extent and criticizes the policies of the previous prime minister even before erdogan's time, who actually lost the elections against the background of criticism of his unpreparedness of the country before the earthquake that happened then and it was then that numerous norms were changed that provided for changes in construction and we see that in principle nothing happened, considering that construction companies usually

try to be closer to the authorities here, of course there are big questions for erdoğan, for those companies that built all these houses, well, in other words, this is nutritious food and opportunities for the opposition, er, to issue the hamburg bill already, actually, er, when jergu already issues this bill, he is talking about it, er, he took advantage of this opportunity , how successful it will be, only time will tell, well, you take into account the fact that in fact the key problem of the turkish position is not the lack of material for criticism, including niches, they criticize the lack of a single candidate for poor quality you have already mentioned the construction, but how far can the current government manage to overcome the consequences of the earthquake, because at the beginning there were complaints against rydogan that they say rescuers are arriving late and not on the necessary scale and so on, but now

it will become so-so for him check and his success in the upcoming elections will depend on this. well, we already understood that this is the black swan in everyone in the manifestations of the black swan itself, and how much is it in the well, maybe, maybe, maybe it will affect the election is possible, this is how you can say the mess that was observed, although the mess is er-er turkish glass, that is, it is a little different story, er-er, that is, actually what we observed during this very active phase, and gentlemen, it will be affected in some way, it is possible now we see just different pictures that are starting to appear in the turkish press, where

the first thing that comes to the fore is the activity of the police there to prevent murder, there is theft and the like , that is, it is not completely clear here how it will work, but it is clear i can say for sure these are huge economic losses, both infrastructural and housing stock, and actually people, and if ertugan had planned to give out, let’s say conditionally , to his clients , to make social payments, that’s exactly what happened during the elections here. carried out now, in fact, in these social elections, most likely, it will not be done, it can also hit the positions of the virtual, well, it is clear that what is in front of the gyporotogam is definitely not well, let's say, i did not expect that the situation could return in