[000:00:00;00] where they begin to write that this is russia's invasion of ukraine, putin personally prepared it in secret, no one was involved. let's say it was admitted, and when there, this russian elite seemed surprised to react to putin's statements that we are starting a special operation. lavrov explained that you know that putin has three advisors there, ivan the terrible, peter i, catherine the great, but what surprised me was the feeling that even the foreign press is beginning to narrow the area of ​​responsibility of the russian leadership for what is happening with the beginning of the aggression and its course. how would you rate this kind of publication and such a general background ? i would rate it as follows. we must clearly understand what the publications

there are. those people who make decisions in the political and business circles of our countries and our partners , the change scenario is planned to be explained in that language with those examples that will be clear to them or that can somehow influence us i think you understand very well that putin would not be able to plan even his own visit to the sorties , i am not saying that even the movement of one battalion of a tactical group from one district to another. to solve the conflicts and end them by transferring all the blame to one person and the real state of affairs. therefore, now

i think that the russian political elites will also deal with this. let's tentatively call it peace talks, it will be easier, that is, extremely easy to find one person who will be guilty of everything, or even say that he has a lot of doppelgangers, he was once abducted by aliens. people with whom they will negotiate here, i think that the problem should be sought at this level that they are trying to open a window of opportunity for people for people with whom it is possible to negotiate in post-putin russia or with those

or with those elites who can be provoked to some actions of the opposing military-political regime in russia. that is, these are the ones you are showing them here. here the question will be how ready they are for this and how dependent they are, well, personally from putin there in certain elements of his life and his activities. but if we now take putin's speech before the federal assembly, what is it, as far as i was concerned , no new guidelines, no assessments from putin of this special military operations agree with the mention of losses, i.e., nothing so new that it somehow fixes any new priorities , except for the mention that russia should create for itself these and historical territories, it is not clear according to which history, i.e. how would you rate this

putin's current rhetoric at these speeches, what does this show, ah, the current rhetoric tells us that nothing has actually changed in them, they cannot offer a vision of the future, they offer a vision of the past , even the quote you gave about the fact that we we have to return our historical lands there, this does not in any way mean a look into the future , they are generally building everything that is possible to bind you in some way, it is trying to consolidate and bind itself at the level of historical memory of historical politics but which in no way is not aimed at the future, even there in this speech there are any references to the second world war, they are in the version of the worst stamps of soviet propaganda, despite the fact that this propaganda machine created a lot of

elements and technologies that could be use even against us, as it is not surprising, but for some reason the situation is such that in this year of this full -scale war, of all possible options, they always choose the worst, but for me it is a mystery and i would be very interested to know the answer to it there are some parallels between the war of the soviet union against finland and the war of russia against ukraine, because sometimes i see these parallels in some foreign publications, which they try to impose on us , saying that finland restrained the first offensive inflicted colossal losses on the enemy, then the enemy regrouped and finland was forced to cede part of its territory in exchange for some such peaceful coexistence with the aggressor, your vision of the appearance of such

parallels again. everything is very simple here . well, more or less master the situation that is happening there on the book and information market of the countries where these expressions are published, well, let's say , then they spread because the winter war or it can be used very successfully through which you can explain something. if you remember last fall, there were a lot of comparisons with the netflix film on the western front without changes , that is, our partners in the information space pollinate emotions to emotions that are explained by means of mass culture, and this greatly simplifies the perception of the population of those or other facts, therefore, in any war, you yourself

know this very well, you can find parallels to anything, the only question will be : what is the task for you to find a parallel or cannot find this parallel, and accordingly if we are talking about finland well, it is convenient for us, we are describing events that are in the historical memory of ukrainians and we are describing the history of success, we are talking about what countries and the western value system says about the fact that to a certain extent it is possible not to fulfill one's obligations in the political arena to save face and look good , although this does not lead to any global result, because if we take the soviet-finnish war and the present day, then

we get that the direct consequence was the introduction in finland before nato. this is absolutely correct conclusion. but at the same time, the question arises. if we talk about the fact that the west operates with emotional components in the perception of something else in the fact of history, then it is possible and we must somehow shape and package our history of courage in those emotional messages that will be perceived by a european viewer or reader, in particular , the story of the defenders of mariupol, i have the impression that for some reason we are leaving this area for later, although it is also an element of influence on our partners so that they would be faster in praise of these or other decisions, what do you think about this well, i will say this, taking into account the existing two pastasias, we are trying to do it, but some moments , some narratives, theirs, well, the west is ready

to accept the history of sacrifice and the history of torture and death, but the west is not quite ready to accept the history of the heroism of resistance and a certain militarism, that is, here you see that even there on the supply of military equipment , the evolution of perception by western society and western politicians of certain events in our of modern history and i think that as the supply of military-technical assistance to ukraine changes , so will the understanding of this war. similar works and the resistance of ukrainians, it is interesting. let's say from the point of view of civil resistance , it is still a fugitive as you show it, and it is interesting from

the point of view of organized armed resistance that the armed forces of ukraine - this is the only modern army that successfully resisted the armed forces russia in the full-scale war that was being waged. well, let's talk conditionally about the use of all types of convection weapons by all rules, because russia has already used probably everything except nuclear weapons against us. well, as far as i know , ukraine also responded to russian strikes with everything that was in our weapons there is uh at least it is there if it did not look funny from a jar of cucumbers from a meme that a grandmother dropped on a russian drone completing a high-precision weapon that sent the cruiser moscow to the bottom or that struck the russian airfield here to things are just as nuanced because there were really different conclusions that we could say that we

started to form territorial defense there late , that is, we did not quite have time to ensure the creation of the so-called or, well, resistance movement, that is, systemic work that is connected with the possibility of our actions there of citizens in the captured territories, but de facto we see that there was a resistance movement and resistance forces and territorial defense even there is little time for training. it really played a key role there in the protection of our territory, that is in fact, we say that the internal readiness of the ukrainian people to resist is much greater and wider than even these recommendations that our partners prepared for us in one way or another, even in the preparation of the resistance movement . let's talk about the fact that some parts of our territorial defense entered the battle not that from wheels i don't know how to call it correctly they entered the battle in the state in which they were, that is, people gathered

er received or looked for weapons where they entered the battle in the same way if we talk about movement resistance, uh, again, you have enough knowledge of history . you must clearly remember when it was possible to establish a resistance movement in france. are compressed in the historical and temporal space, so what i am talking about is that the experience of the ukrainians in this war will be possibly decisive for the 21st century. just like the formation of the experience of resistance, the experience of intercepting the initiative, the experience of opposing the army which well, conditionally speaking, it is not ready for war on such a scale

from the army, which conditionally at least proclaimed that it is always the heir of a certain army, having enormous power. it has the best, even more technological links of weapons, but it all does not work in specific conditions and here it is it is definitely worth remembering about yesterday's statement from the national security council of oleksiy danilov, who said that internal destabilization in ukraine is actually the only salvation for russia from a military defeat , and the cream is just now launching the virus of the idea of ​​the possibility of such a compromise on your opinion when we talk about seeds, how our people, citizens fought with the enemy, to what extent can we talk about any compromises, but at the current stage of hostilities with the russian federation, it is considered that i would like to enter into which stereotyping i will say purely practically, in

my environment with the people with whom i i talk there every day, or more or less constantly. there are about a thousand people, even i say according to my phone contracts . there is not a single person from this environment who was ready to stop the resistance. exists. i am saying that i am in my environment. i understand that we are all there in one or another bubble, but even sociological polls from ukraine, which enter the public space and are conducted by western agencies, they claim that the population of ukraine is not ready. to compromises at the expense of the loss of our national dignity of the territory and the violation of our identity and that a significant number of the ukrainian population is ready to resist under any conditions and it is actually possible and these sociological

surveys, including them, encourage our partners to do what they are doing. therefore, in this war, it probably depends on us much more than we ourselves imagine . in fact, this year, we have demonstrated stability in terms of resistance in the fence of aggression. but in some parts of society, in particular , dad. in our circle of people, where we had something to do, we unanimously see the future, and there is a part of people who believe that the actual victory will come by itself . that is, we just have to wait, so i have the impression that we need to add certain opportunities and capacities on the part of the state in order to expand work on preparing the population for defense and even preparing for the fact that the war will not end, the war will not end tomorrow, we need to prepare for this, because we need to prepare for a long confrontation, and here we need additional mechanisms, there are gravitational ideological mechanisms, what do you

think about how to strengthen this preparation of the population for a long-term defense well, i won't say what i think, i'll say what i know. in the 21st year , the cabinet of ministers adopted a resolution on basic and initial and basic military training of the population in the system of national sports e.e. at the end of december 2022, the president of ukraine signed into law the law of ukraine on state policy in the field of formation of the foundations of national and civic identity, these are exactly the two components that you are talking about, it is practically ideological now. the question is: how quickly will the necessary institutions and well i will not be afraid of this word, how

much are the public organizations that are too worried about the citizen or, on the contrary, too excited public organizations will interfere with this process, that is, the state should work here these ministries, all the centers of power of the states, and let's say this, our citizens who, for one reason or another, are not yet involved in active resistance to the enemies, are working here to perform their functions. they have , well, at least they do not interfere except for what we mentioned about researched in finland, there is another narrative that also appears in the assessments of experts and politicians, in particular that the war between russia and ukraine can, in principle , be based on a variation of the confrontation between north and south korea

. and v the situation is becoming a stalemate, how likely are such risks. in my opinion, there are extremely several reasons. the first of them is geography. if we are talking about korea, then it is the 38th parallel, or let's take other options there , let's take vietnam on the 17th parallel. this is an extremely limited geographic territory, when we talk about russia and ukraine, we have a very long line of the state border , which in this state, if we say war , it will turn out to be a two-chicken option, and it will be extremely difficult to keep this option of two koreas - this is the maximum, it is a respite for several

months, well, maybe for several years, but not more, because getting such a line of contact and then we turn it into a state border is extremely difficult . let's not forget that in addition to the purely military component, we also have a socio-economic one, and this is the population of the occupied temporarily occupied territories is the population of the adjacent territories - this is the population of russia itself, which will not feel any improvement from this option, and accordingly here we will say that we quite often despise the russians . but in my opinion, sooner or later it will come at the moment, i don’t know what the triggers are for its launch, but the russians can really, as they say in our country, start rocking the boat inside their own state, that is, most likely it will be something social and economic that

will finally break the agreement between putin and russian society - and the refusal of freedom in exchange for comfort and when this comfort has finally ended, then the russians may begin to, let's say, turn to their own authorities with questions and why did this happen and maybe this will lead to certain changes you also assume that this new social contract that putin is now trying to impose on his subordinates about the holy war will actually crack at the seams quite quickly and even these flirtations with the symbols of the second patriotic war will not really work in russian society and such there is a chance that the boat, e.e., the russian boat, will start to shake symbols , they do not work, you can see for yourself

that they can at most work somewhere where their consumer is limited in his reaction, that is, relatively speaking, they work in schools where students one way or another dependent on the teachers, respectively, they express a certain version and a certain reaction , if we even take a luzhniki concert, some recent one, then excuse me , russian rap with katyusha's chorus, but it looks like well, i don't know, it's not that it's not that it's not that you trash it to god and it's a pity and the population of russia, i think that at some point they will stop perceiving it not at the level of awareness, but at the level of immediate awareness, but we see these faces here, uh , to imitate it, and here, right away, and insult

to the fact that they are the best feelings at the expense of which they gave up even there their primitive freedom, this can push them to some actions, and information about defeats on the front line , about losses, about these problems with ammunition , these are some factors that continue to somehow influence russian society, that is what but most likely he is not decisive, again we see that the war is actually being waged live both in us and in them and despite all the restrictions of the internet they receive information more or less quickly eh plus no one canceled information on a personal level, even there at the level of communication of the wives of military personnel of one unit, it is still a certain conglomerate there, which in one way or another is connected with other groups, for example, there

through school, through work, and keeping all this information in some limited field, well, really it is impossible for me to speak there , kadyrova, speak prigozhina, er, there are russian anonymous or not-so-anonymous telegram channels that are fighting between different well, as they like to say there, the kremlin towers or the kremlin towers, they are all the same they cast information and cast doubt precisely the combination of information and doubt opens up a window of opportunity for us to have a more vigorous influence on russian society . if we paid attention to putin's speech there without clear guidelines regarding the achievement of any goals there, in fact it was confirmed that

putin is trying to turn this war into the format of long-term hostilities should simply be prolonged long-term hostilities, that is, with hints that this will cause the exhaustion of the ukrainian army in particular, the exhaustion of europeans regarding the expectation of a successful outcome of this war, but it turns out that she says whether the war of attrition today is sufficiently risky for putin himself for the very top of the russian top, because there will really be more and more cracks in its system, you can draw the following conclusions: the war for putin is risky, in my opinion , nasa before that he does not know or does not want to know the real state of affairs they have a situation where everyone is deceiving well, to put it another way, they are deceiving each other and accordingly they have lost touch with reality in assessing

the real situation and having false information they cannot make the right decisions for the future , do you remember that there, at the beginning of the special operation, we will speak in russian , there was a lot in the information space that russian economists are against, the national bank of russia is against, but then it all gradually came to nothing because we will say yes well, i do i think that it was explained to them that their economic knowledge is worthless in front of the ideological orientation of this war, precisely what you said about the concept of a holy war in the russian sense of the word and its translation, this is precisely the moment of translation into such a long duration that in russia still stretches from

times of serfdom, and god was patient and led us to this just right. and here it is the brightest. in my opinion, it is expressed in the fact that well, only in the word god for today's russians, they can put the word putin for themselves, and then the question arises. to look like the optimal form of achieving results in this war from the point of view of our victory, this is an exit to the borders of 1991. that is, what format and how is this format then in addition to drinking in international legal practice, that is , there are many nuances that are actually so far so shaky that you you are leading, you see very well, but the achievement of the results of the war from the point of view of our victory. that is, you deliberately avoided such a word as peace. that is , everyone clearly understands that uh, this situation will be

quite so shaky, and here we have to speak about several aspects about the aspects of the purely military defeat of russia what the defeat of russia on the battlefield speaks of is a military political defeat is about, as konstantin moshovets of the russian armed forces aptly says , the impossibility of launching hostilities before bringing them to a state of full capability and this is not always achieved exclusively by military means, there are a lot of components of this, and it is the inability or unwillingness of the average russian to continue there, well, let's say so, or to tolerate or support these actions because, well, in my opinion in my opinion, the situation is such that neither ukraine nor the allies are able, due to a number of reasons, to stop the war because we did not

start it and we did not determine, let's say , its certain landmarks, and russia can do it, but then it arises the question what will happen to russia itself? and most likely the cessation of hostilities there under any conditions will mean the end of the existing system of internal agreements in russia between the government and society and the end of the existence of russia as a political and legislative reality, i mean especially these terms, and then we have to get ready to interact with what will end up at this place, that is, how then can we predict the results of this year, what can we expect, what should be the main result of this year from the point of view of

military actions there and political i have already changed once in the literal sense of the word, i will try to do it, let's say it figuratively, the armed forces of the russian federation will not be able to impose the initiative of conducting hostilities on the armed forces of ukraine with the help of military-technical superiority and intelligence information of the allies will be able to control the course of hostilities and whether the armed forces of ukraine will be able to go into a full-scale offensive in order to solve operational and strategic goals in specific areas .

most likely, it will be a combination of long-range weapons in the form of artillery or rocket artillery troops and a motivated and prepared e-e reserve of mechanized troops aviation in the form of the so famous the expected f-16 is unlikely to affect this course of hostilities personally if i thank you very much for your attention tenth thank you very much for your time for your professional comments on this difficult topic and i would like to remind our viewers that our interlocutor on the espresso channel was vasyl pavlov , military historian, chairman of a public organization, the center of military history. so , the conclusions and trends are quite interesting and important, and further on our broadcast, watch olga lenin with her chronicles of the information war