[000:00:00;00] situations in ukraine during the war are not alone and fortunately we have many such stories when children born under similar circumstances were found, one of these stories is about seven-year - old dima filonov. and now the boy is safe with his parents, of course such stories with a happy ending inspire hope that happy endom will end this search for other children who are still wanted , in particular nastya obryi from mariupol, by the way it is especially encouraging that a few months ago we noticed activity on nastya's facebook page, namely, this photo of a girl appeared, did nastya herself add this photo or is this her real page on the social network at all? we are not sure at the moment our messages on facebook nastya unfortunately not

i read it, but i ask you to pay attention to the fact that, judging by this inscription on the wall, this photo was taken in izmail, so please the residents of odesa and izmail itself, i ask you to look especially carefully into the face of nastya, the opera is not excluded that after the evacuation from mariupol, the girl and her parents live in the odesa region and, for one reason or another, cannot report that everything is okay with them . that nastya is now in odesa is only an assumption, which has not yet been confirmed . it is also not excluded that the girl still remains in mariupol, and it is possible that this is why she cannot report herself, or probably does not even know that she is wanted, because in mariupol does not broadcast ukrainian tv, so if

you live in mariupol and are able to see us on the internet, i also ask you to look carefully at the photo of nastya opry , any information about her will be important to us and you can report it 24 hours a day to our hotline by dialing a short number 116,000,000 calls from all mobile operators in ukraine are free, don't be indifferent , let's try together to find nastya opir , and finally, i want to give you an algorithm of actions if, god forbid, you have a missing child first of all, try to get a hold of yourself, in no case should you panic, call everyone who may have information about your child, if the child is lost in a public place or a shopping center, immediately contact the security service and ask for help with the search, if possible , contact the child via loudspeaker if during hours, it was not possible to find the child, immediately

contact the police and the children's search service at 116 000, our consultants will tell you exactly how to act in such a situation i also ask you to go to the website of the child tracing service, there are photos of all the boys and girls who are wanted , spare just a few minutes of your time to look at the faces of these children, maybe you will recognize someone and help you find the number of our hotline 116,000,000 calls from all mobile phones operators are free greetings dear viewers of the espresso tv channel, the program, the studio, the event , we will analyze the most important events of this week, there were many of them, at the same time, we will

try to predict what the weeks will be like our next guests are matthew bryza , the secretary of state of the united states , and andriy piontkovsky, a political scientist who is in washington. now you will go to the espresso tv channel . praise the president of the united states made a historic visit at a historic moment during a full-scale russian invasion yes, but most importantly not even that he flew to the eastern flank of nato, not even that he came to kyiv , although this also commands great respect, but he held extremely important coordination meetings, in particular, this concerns the entire eastern flank of nato, and we understand that there are certain additional things that are not

got into the official protocols regarding the visit to kyiv, as president zelensky said. this is probably the most significant visit of any american official to ukraine, and i agree with this because biden as the leader of trans the atlantic family, unlike other european leaders, has not yet been to kyiv . he had to go there to demonstrate his courage and, of course, oppose moscow's statement that biden is already a frail old man detached from the people and therefore cannot be a global leader. but the most important thing for ukraine, of course, is that for the first time in american history the president of the united states was able to visit a combat zone that is not under the control of the american military , showing that he is ready to take such risks and demonstrating his strong support ukraine, which is constantly growing, so president biden's visit to kyiv was an extremely important political symbol when it comes to the meeting of the bucharest nine, that is

, the advanced nato states closest to ukraine. i believe that this is also an extremely important strategic symbol of nato unity, and these countries as a whole historically concerned and most aware of president putin's aggressive claims against ukraine and the threat he poses to nato territory, these are also countries that were occupied by russia during of the soviet union, therefore they need to be reassured, these countries must understand that the nato leader takes their concerns into account and even if in some other parts of nato the support of ukraine may change somewhat but remain strong , it is important to show them that, as biden said , all nato countries have united to deter russia from of any aggression against nato territory, the last reason why both visits of president biden were so important the thing is that the far right is the most extremist part

of the republican party in washington that we have already discussed before they assume that it is possible that the usa should reduce its aid to ukraine and if donald trump is re-elected as president, i am very worried about what the support from the usa will be in such circumstances , but these elections are still far away, i would not now predict that president trump will win, what could lead to the president of the united states to kyiv, we understand that this is important. this is historic and this is a huge risk for president joseph biden, but he took this risk, and accordingly, this means that we have a historical moment, i.e. it is possible that we are talking about major geopolitical negotiations with the russian federation, possibly with china and so on, that is, the president of the united states manifested himself by coming to kyiv . what is the western world here on the one hand, on the other

hand? i know to transcarpathia or to lviv. no, he came to kyiv , and the most interesting moment was that the kremlin did not make a military provocation. and here, i would like to ask you, dear ambassadors, in your opinion, why the kremlin did not go on a missile strike shelling of kyiv and what could be the response from the united states? did the biden administration warn or warn russia that president biden was going to visit kyiv ? the white house warned the kremlin in advance, which clearly indicates the responsible behavior of washington if moscow, in turn, carried out airstrikes or missile strikes. in kyiv at the time when biden was there, she would have suffered a huge blow from the point of view of international public opinion and possibly even inside russia, since there is

international political and legal understanding that countries do not try to kill major powers, despite the fact that russia grossly violated international law by invading ukraine, it tries to manage international relations with the public and , frankly, they do well because outside of europe, the usa, japan, australia, new zealand and other countries almost two-thirds of the world sympathizes with russia, the kremlin well understood that it would lose this favor if it did something so imprudent as launch missiles after being warned about biden's visit, but on the other hand, putin did not give any clear, comprehensible, tough answer, so everyone expected that putin would very harshly start , well, at least in rhetorical terms, to try to realize his persian fantasies or ambitions , the only thing he did of such an important thing was to freeze or suspend the operation of the treaty on

strategic offensives weapons, it is important to focus on your words. putin decided to freeze and suspend the implementation of the treaty on the reduction of strategic offensive armaments, but not to withdraw from it and not cancel this treaty. i think that putin sends a signal to the united states that the entire arms control system that existed since the 1970s, starting with the 1972 missile defense treaty, from which the usa withdrew in 2002, by the way, no longer works, he wants to sow fear, especially in europe, that the usa is behaving dangerously, what can lead to a nuclear confrontation not only between the usa and russia, but also between europe and russia, that is why putin is using this threat to try to undermine the unity of the trans-atlantic community in support of ukraine, however, as he already said, he did not

mention that russia withdrew from the agreement because in in such a case, he would work against his goal of driving a wedge between europe and the united states, in fact, however, the pectic impact of this step is small , since at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, russia did not allow any inspections that were foreseen earlier, namely several times a year, each side and russia and the united states, according to the treaty, have the right provide notice that in the near future they will make a visit to observe whether the other party is complying with the agreement or not russia did not allow this at first during the pandemic and then when the pandemic went into decline when russia invaded ukraine the continuation of this kind of political cooperation became impractical this is another symbolic gesture aimed at sowing fear and has no reason why strategic stability will be

undermined in any way if russia freezes the implementation of the treaty well in any case sir ambassador , i don't see you looking terribly i don't see the united states being overly alarmed by this extremely undiplomatic and dangerous russian move, that is , as far as i understand, the united states is not surprised and in case of something would be ready to give an adequate answer according to the treaty each side can keep 1550 nuclear warheads russia has kept this number while the united states has 1420 nuclear warheads at its disposal so this is enough to deter any russian attack on the usa with the use of nuclear weapons weapons the question of whether russia will tactically use nuclear weapons in ukraine is a completely different question and it depends entirely on whether

president putin will come to the conclusion that, frankly, he himself will face an existential a threat if ukraine defeats the russian army on the battlefield, in your opinion, for what purpose did the head of chinese diplomacy, the head of the so-called foreign department of the central committee of the people's republic of china, ivan, carry out his great european voyage now, and what could one bring and what could be this chinese peace plan that everyone is talking about a lot of people say that the chinese peace plan can affect something, first of all, it is unlikely that xi jinping is really interested in playing the role of a mediator, as turkey tried to do it, they did not find any

interest in active involvement, instead, china is trying to balance from the point of view of its own strategic interests, the other day there was a meeting of the minister of foreign affairs of china with president putin and minister of foreign affairs lavrov, so the minister of foreign affairs of china, speaking about the sino-russian partnership, used a term that translates as strong as a rock but this time, he did not repeat the phrase that sidin-pin and vladimir putin used during the meeting before russia's invasion of ukraine, but it is precisely that china and russia have a partnership without restrictions, it is obvious that the 7 bells are trying to limit russia, and this is exactly what i see as the balance of china's approach to war. as for the use of nuclear weapons, it is no secret that these depins persistently advise president putin not to do this under at the time of their last meeting, as in the render mode , china wants the end of the war from the point of view of balance, it wants to maintain its principle

of supporting the territorial integrity of states, and here the matter concerns taiwan, and the balance is that china is not a supporter of russia occupying and dividing ukraine is another very subtle side of chinese thinking that few academics pay attention to. from the point of view of putin, who, as we know , violated international law with his invasion of ukraine by his assertion that ukraine has no right to exist, inclines the international community to accusations of genocide, but in chinese strategic thinking, the conflict there is no clear interpretation of territorial integrity, and that is why china would simply like the war to end without pushing ukraine away, as it conducts active trade with it . china wants peace, but does not show readiness

for active mediation, however, everyone knows that there is no chance that ukraine will simply say , ok, let's stop the war now without the spring offensive, which aims to restore the territorial integrity of ukraine, forgive me for trying for so long to explain my opinion that the chinese peace plan will lead nowhere well, it is a strange but characteristic moment, so we understand that the chinese would like to sell themselves as great peacemakers in quotes , of course, on the other hand, well, it is extremely strange that the van flew to moscow and not to kyiv , that is, as far as i understand, if china had serious intentions to intervene i do not know how to try to extinguish russian aggression , and first of all, i should have talked with the leadership and the top political leadership of ukraine. this is what i tried to prove in my

previous answer that china does not have serious intentions to be a mediator or peacemaker china's fundamental strategic interest at this stage is to help counter the dominance of the united states on the world stage through its support for russia and president putin, who are a global figure seeking to undermine the international system of rules multilateralism that emerged after world war ii wars and all the efforts made by the usa at that time. beijing will always lean towards moscow in this conflict and will never be a peacemaker. but again, as i said, beijing is conflict and because of its support for the principle of territorial integrity, including in ukraine, but of course, first of all, for myself , regarding taiwan, i agree that if beijing wanted to play the role of a peacemaker, the minister of foreign affairs would come to kyiv, but this is not the case. beijing simply wants to avoid being against russia and at the same time not to be too favorable to russia in this

nsc conflict. in your opinion, when this moment will come , what will be its most characteristic signs that would prove that russia will be ready or russia will be forced to enter into negotiations because we understand, well, in general, there are two bloody scenarios before us, i.e. big battles or attempts by the russians to freeze and somewhat reduce the intensity. for the destruction of ukraine and he will do it if he is not stopped. he will never sit down at the negotiating table in the spirit of goodwill if he wins on the battlefield, we have already learned from the minsk process. putin simply

used the time between 2014 and 2022 to strengthen russia's military presence, increase it, and perhaps prepare for an invasion of ukraine, this is exactly what he would do now. if a ceasefire was reached as a result of some negotiations , the only option is to defeat him on the battlefield russia is facing serious challenges and difficulties it has run out of regular troops it has little ammunition and cannot manufacture ammunition due to sanctions adventures recently stated that they can no longer recruit even with prison, there is an intense political struggle between the adventurer and the military of russia, especially minister shoigu and the chief of the general staff and the head of the military operation in ukraine, gerasimov. i think that putin knows that in a totalitarian or authoritarian state like his russia, such competing centers of power must be separated by people who control the military the force must be divided, otherwise they may rebel against him, i am trying

to say that russia's military situation is quite dangerous in russia, there are many more people whom putin is willing to sacrifice as cannon fodder during attacks on ukraine's defense lines, putin hopes that ukraine will be exhausted on the battlefield and that its friends and partners will at some point stop providing it with such decisive military assistance, i think ukraine is ready for a decisive victory this spring, then the difficult question will be whether ukraine will continue advance and liberate crimea, for which my dear friend stands for i have great respect for general benhoj , will a collective measure put pressure on ukraine to stop hostilities at this moment it will be a difficult political decision and that's when putin can sit down at the negotiating table, in particular, understanding that if he loses crimea, it will be for him both an exceptional political defeat and a physical existential

threat after ukraine wins a decisive victory over russia on the battlefield outside crimea, there will be a very tense moment of deciding whether to continue liberating crimea on the screen, as far as i understood, president joseph biden, when he arrived in kyiv and in warsaw, he demonstrated something, but the issue is not only the demonstration, but also the readiness to use specific forces, in particular, it is also about ground forces of course, this is necessary, it is connected with the amazing behavior of ukrainian society both on the battlefield and with its unity in supporting military efforts. to say ok, now we see that ukraine is capable of winning and therefore we are ready to take the risks of escalating the conflict by providing ukraine

with the weapons it needs ukraine can defeat russia on the battlefield therefore this is a risk worth taking because we must see ukraine's victory on the battlefield and ukraine can do it. therefore, more powerful weapons should be provided to ukraine, and we have seen how the usa and its european allies step by step cross each of their red lines. at first, no longer-range missiles were foreseen, and then the usa provided heimers then there were anti-ship missiles provided by denmark and great britain and you remember that a few years ago the obama administration did not even want to provide chivelin anti-tank missiles and president trump agreed to it do then there were statements that no nato tanks would be provided, the last ones spoke to you just before the rammstein contact group meeting and were of the same opinion that germany would eventually provide leopard 2 tanks following the us decision to provide

m1 abrams tanks and then the us provided patriot missiles now we are talking about strengthening the ukrainian air defense system with f-16 fighters. i think that soon the us will agree to transfer f-16 aircraft to ukraine . so as ukraine succeeds on the battlefield, its friends in the west and the future nato allies are more and more ready to risk a greater escalation of the war on the part of president putin to make sure that ukraine can defeat the terrible earthquake in turkey , as far as i understand he has weakened certain positions of president erdogan as of now god is changing or on the contrary weakening the position of president erdogan and turkey as the key black sea negotiator at the moment at the highest level of the turkish government system , there is no ability to think about anything outside the borders

of turkey, this is an unprecedented natural disaster in the history of the turkish republic and some experts claim that it can become the biggest natural disaster in the history of mankind, there have been many major natural disasters, but now an area larger than the whole of bulgaria has been affected, where almost all buildings were destroyed or seriously damaged only in the city of antalya, for example, the local mayor announced that 80% of buildings were destroyed or require destruction and reconstruction of 80%. in a region with a population of more than a million, previous international disputes between turkey and greece, cyprus, armenia , and israel now look quite trivial and in fact these countries were one of the first to offer turkey help by providing both rescue teams and other humanitarian aid. erdogan will be preoccupied

with his upcoming elections, which are politically existential for him. will be as determined as now after the first complaints that not enough aid has come to this huge region that was affected by the earthquake, it will be very good erdogan promises to start the reconstruction of two hundred thousand destroyed houses within a month. he is going to strengthen his status in the upcoming elections, that is why all eyes at the top of turkish politics are now focused on reconstruction and then on the upcoming elections, so yes, however, foreign policy continues, the minister continues active turkish diplomacy, but i do not think that turkey will be ready at the level of president erdoğan to return to the role of mediator that he played between kyiv and moscow until the rescue mission that takes

for at least a few months, turkey is preparing for the elections that were originally scheduled for june 18. they should be held by june 18, but erdogan postponed them to may 14 due to the cataclysm, the elections will most likely take place after june 18, on the other hand, this is impossible under the turkish constitution because that the elections can be postponed after the announced date only in the event of a war in turkey, but the people who wrote the constitution did not foresee a disaster of such a scale, it is appropriate that if the elections are postponed, then erdogan most likely will not be able to play the role of a mediator until the elections are held, president joseph biden in some ways reminds me of such a better version of president woodrow wilson, who returned america to great global politics and who was not afraid. but unlike president wilson in the morning , president joseph biden is supported in the united states. we remember we know that more than 100 years ago, president wilson wisely began to normalize the world, so

to speak, at the same time when his relations with his native politicians and congressmen deteriorated, and accordingly the domestic political situation in the united states will not be able to negatively affect the idea of ​​president biden to return the united states truly to a major global policy , the activity of the united states in foreign policy is the natural state of things after the first world war and much more after the second world war. what exactly then did the united states become a world leader however, in us foreign policy there has always been a tendency towards isolationism, the desire to use, as they said in the 19th and 18th centuries, america's geographical isolation

that is, the oceans that isolate the united states from conflicts elsewhere, recalling the farewell speech of the first president of the united states, george washington, one of the key things he said in that speech was that the united states should avoid external entanglements, that is , focus first on the domestic situation , this trend was reversed by donald trump he restored the policy of isolationism due to ignorance, due to a lack not only of understanding how the world works, but also due to a complete lack of interest. thus, biden returned us to the natural state of foreign us policy after the second world war will be the leader of the trans-atlantic community, which is based on nato, as well as on the american treaty on the defense of the treaties on the defense of japan, south korea, australia, and new zealand. pays a lot of attention to the rest of the world members of the us congress

do not even have passports for international travel which is a cause for concern the foreign policy of the united states has been a kind of sphere of activity of the intellectual elite and the whole president trump's political approach has been to criticize the elite, even if he himself is the economic elite of the country, and he has built a significant part of his political support among people who feel that the american intellectual elite treats them with contempt, and it is this intellectual elite who cares most about foreign policy there is a constant trend and tension in american politics between isolationism and internationalism. but as i said, as long as donald trump is not the president , internationalism will remain for a long time. default position in the foreign

policy of the united states. in the affairs of europe and eurasia at the national security council of the united states and now our guest will be andriy piontkovsky, a political scientist who is in washington. glory to ukraine andriy andriyovich , i welcome you to the espresso studio. to the heroes of glory. good evening. good evening. at the same time, it is not clear what putin's babbling in moscow is about