[000:00:00;00] until you solve the old problems. that's the conclusion from our conversation. thank you. these were ivan krychevskyi, a military expert, defense express, ihor laping, a special officer, an officer of the armed forces of ukraine, a people's deputy of the eighth convocation . good health today , march 1, 371 days of heroic resistance of the ukrainian people to the russian occupiers. during the past day, our aircraft struck 11 areas of concentration of the occupiers, and rocket artillerymen hit nine areas. the concentration of manpower and the area of ​​concentration of weapons and military equipment to the enemies of the defense forces in a day repelled more than 85 enemy attacks , meanwhile, the russian occupiers

continue to lose manpower and equipment in ukraine as of the morning of march 1, russia has already lost 149,890 people in ukraine, almost 150,000 only in the last day, the armed forces of ukraine destroyed 650 orks with the beginning of the great war , the russians have already lost in ukraine 3,395 tanks , 6,638 armored fighting vehicles, 2,393 artillery systems, 479 jet systems volley fire 247 means against air defense 300 airplanes 288 helicopters 5257 units of automotive equipment 18 ships of boats 873 cruise missiles 2055 drones 230 units of special equipment about the situation on the eastern front and in particular around bakhmut , however, how drones attack russia and what

the americans predict about the further development of russian- ukrainian war , we will talk about it all over the next hour . i want to introduce today's first guest - andrii illenko, an officer of the freedom battalion of the national guard politician of ukraine, people's deputy of ukraine of the seventh and eighth convocations , mr. andriy, good day. good health to you. thank you for joining the broadcast. good day , mr. serhiy. so, mr. andriy , an extended meeting of the stake was held yesterday, and volodymyr zelenskyi in his evening address spoke about what is happening on on the front in the bakhmut area, as he says, the enemy does not count his enemies , the intensity of the fighting is increasing, let's hear zelenskyi held another meeting of the stake today, again in an expanded format,

the gur of the ministry of defense reported to the head of the commanders directions, we deal with the situation on each of the front lines in detail, the most difficult as before bakhmut and the battles that are important for the defense of the city, i will not be just one example , now we conduct the stake quite often , at least twice a week, the meeting was on thursday, today general syrsky reported that since last betting only on his direction, about 800 killed enemies , russia does not count people at all, sending them to constant assaults on our positions, the intensity of the battles is only increasing. now i understand that you are on rotation correctly in kyiv so that we are more accurate on the air yes, mr. sergey, i always emphasize this so that if there were no unethical moments our

unit battalion was for a long time exactly in this direction now we are on deployment, they are retrained, but i really know the situation because, in particular, our comrades from our brigade of the fourth brigade of the national guard, the iron border , are there now, so of course , i know enough about other units as well. the situation, how is the situation around the city now? and what can you actually say on the air, what can you talk about ? well, the situation doesn't change. it's just that you understand what the situation is. every time you ask what the situation is, it doesn't change much. every day or every week , there are heavy battles. and in fact, if you compare there with the period when, in particular, i was in that direction and er, look at what

is happening now, that is, the intensity continues, the battles are as intense as possible and the enemy continues to try to surround bakhmut continues to try to bypass the flanks, and there are battles for every landing, for every height, for every meter of actually ukrainian land, and in this regard, nothing changes , so the situation is very difficult, but despite all the attempts to surround the enemy, it does not work. because well, let's look at the dynamics of the battle it has been going there since the middle of summer, winter has already ended today is the first day of spring and we see that the enemy is not able to fulfill the tasks he sets before himself despite the fact that he is throwing there practically everything he can and carries

huge losses, that is, in essence, his strength is established, the enemy is bleeding, and this is the heroism of the ukrainian army, which , in particular, in this direction, actually makes the enemy bleed until march 1. putin wanted the russian army to enter the administrative borders of the luhansk and donetsk regions or the so-called lpr and dpr are virtual pseudo-republics that exist , this did not happen as it did not happen the previous time when he wanted to time this exit to the occupying troops on the border of donbas, what do you think will be the further actions of the russian army, they will continue to advance and will continue to try to pass bakhmut and go further to kramatorsk and slavyansk , will they still change their tactics, well

, over the next few months , it seems to me that they have not had a clear plan for a long time strategic, on which they do not act, that is, they act based on the situation that exists today, and in fact their whole plan consists in the fact that they try to drag out the war as long as possible for as long as possible to do it in order not to admit it is obvious that they have already suffered a strategic defeat by not being able to defeat ukraine in the blitzkrieg, in fact they have already had their strategic defeat well, but you know this while the football match is going on until the final whistle is blown, the team that loses has not yet formally lost, but it is about the same it's happening now, that is, there is a delay in time , i understand very well that i don't want my words to be perceived as a kind of relaxation, that they say we

have already won and everything is fine, no, we are still far from saying that we have won there are still many tiring days, weeks, and months of a terrible war ahead and, unfortunately, we are suffering losses and all this is happening at a huge cost, but it is obvious that the enemy does not have a clear plan according to which he acts, that is, they act absolutely impulsively, they act based on the situation that is drawn up for a specific moment on a specific day, and they still have political tasks, they unequivocally put before the military because, in principle, this whole war is a political task for them, first of all, therefore they can declare anything, well, if they they declared that they would capture ukraine in general in a few days or a week at the most. well, there was little they declared there, they declared that they would take bakhmut. they were the first statements that they would take bakhmut, they were not even in

july, they already said everything there from day to the day will already be bakhmut so it's in our hands and what's next well, that is, you can declare anything , but the reality on the field is a little different , that's why i don't see the point in seriously if it's all things to discuss, it's obvious that they won't stop, it's obvious that at that very moment when they will finally understand that their defeat is near, they will rush into the last attack like a wounded animal, and there is no need to have any illusions here, but think that they have some super plan, a super strategy, according to which they act, there is no plan, there is no strategy well, what was the plan a year after they thought they would capture ukraine in a week , they couldn't take bakhmut for six months, that's the plan they had from the very beginning, well, it's obvious that if

they had any plans, they were all long ago gone to dust and they act impulsively intuitively just coming out of each specific day we have a message dated march 1 from andriy babichev this is a youtube call sign he is a soldier of the 93rd separate mechanized brigade kholodny yar which is located in bakhmut let's see we have already been waiting for this spring spring waited for it thank god it will come spring will come , summer will come and there will be victory, but for now we are fighting not only with the enemy, but with the consequences of the first warming, it turns out that we have such

stories, this is not the worst option, because today the rain is gone, everything is warming, the marshes are getting used to nothing, we have gotten used to it, i congratulate everyone on march 1, the city of bakhmut, i want to say that the enemy has been silenced a little, it is a little calmer, but on the outskirts, if you can hear more shooting battles , isolated showers, mines are flying, but we are standing in bakhmut itself, then no one is going anywhere leave for the time being we are standing still ukraine glory to ukraine glory to the armed forces and putin, well , it is difficult to disagree with the last statement, mr. andriy , but in this situation, we have already entered spring today, march 1, survived the winter and the spring of 2023 began, on the eve of spring there were a lot of predictions that russia

would go on a big offensive, there would be massive strikes on the territory of ukraine, that the enemy would come from different areas in the east, in the south , maybe in the north, in the northeast , where chernihiv region according to you, is the sumy region already there? i looked at the dynamics of february, because they lost more than 20,000 of their military there, and if you multiply it by three, well, probably 100,000, they lost people on the battlefield, along with the wounded chi chi started this big offensive that everyone was talking about or are they constantly in this big offensive, well, again, i think that uh, you understand, a big role is played by the information

war and their propaganda, ah, it still has a strong enough influence, that is, when they start talking that a major offensive is about to take place, of course, this worries many, and in principle, for sure, it should be so, because we must always be prepared for the most difficult , most complex options for the development of events , but on the other hand, it seems to me that what what has been happening there, in particular, for the last month and a half. well, this is probably the objective maximum that they are capable of. that is, i do not think that now they will show anything more than what they are showing today if we are talking about the possibility of an offensive in some areas other than the east if to do it suddenly now it is almost impossible because in order to gather forces for some serious offensive, they need to be transferred there, for example, to the same belarus, so in

order to try to start an offensive again, for example, as they did in in february 22, in order to do this, it is necessary to carry out a large operation to transfer visas there and place them there. that is, it is not possible to do it. in the current conditions , let's not hide it. obviously, all nato satellite intelligence works in our interests, and not only satellites, they are pluses and the capabilities of our intelligence, as the war appeared, they are also serious enough to do it inconspicuously , it is impossible. that is, it will still be noticeable , anyway, we will understand that similar steps are being taken. therefore, i do not know imperceptibly relative inconspicuously, you can transfer there , i don’t know a company, a battalion , maybe even within the framework of some small direction and that’s all the same. it can

be noticed. in this case, i do not see the possibility of making any sudden new directions of attack so that we are not ready for this, on the other hand, it is constant pumping, constant throwing in once a month and a half, it is standard throwing in our information space through telegram channels and so on, this is the story. what, for example, there is about to be a new attack on kyiv. it seems to me that this is done simply with elementary keys, first of all, to keep our people in tension - secondly, so that we are forced to keep a certain part of our reserves, a certain part of our troops for cover, in accordance with these directions, we cannot use them where intense battles are now going on. that's all and i think it 's obvious. can't go to some new e similar steps can be taken, but we will know about it, it is impossible to do it suddenly and covertly. mr. andrii, in

the united states of america, they said that the war in ukraine may last two or three more years. 2-3 years is difficult to predict because we do not know exactly the trajectory of the conflict, the conflict may end in 6 months or maybe in two or three years , president biden said that we will to support ukraine as much as it is necessary to declare during the congressional hearings of the deputy secretary of defense of the united states of america according to your feelings and observations what you see how long will this russian-ukrainian war last and i mean the finalization of this war because we understand that one way or another this spring, it will be determined when the end of this war will be, or let's say, at least some guidelines for

how events will develop on the eastern, southern and northern fronts of ukraine, serhiy, we don't know when it will be to solve this question, no one knows it. and if we ask any person, even the most informed, to answer the question when will the war end, well, if i don't think that anyone can give an answer to this question, if we do not take some, well, statements that are made from for some purpose, but really this is some kind of impartial analysis well, no one knows anything, no one, and we should not set any time limits for ourselves, what will be decided in the spring, god forbid, god forbid that everything will be resolved in the spring and we will already be there at the borders of our constitutional e-e and and and everything and we would and russia capitulating is fine and everyone wants it, but there is no need to set any

time limits for ourselves so that later if suddenly these limits are not fulfilled, we will be disappointed, the war will last as long as we do not win. that's all, victory is our duty it will definitely be. and how long it will take, no one knows. don't think that it's spring . they recently said that there will be a big russian pump, something else. well, in any case , everyone should do everything in their place in order to bring victory closer, and this victory will be and when it will be, well, no one knows, and i am not going to give any predictions here, because i do not know this and no one knows this , then yesterday, speaking to colleagues of the fsb, he called on the security forces to fight even more actively against those who, er, oppose the policy of russia federation of the current russian leadership by those who, according to him, are trying to divide society by calling them abominations

, we will listen to putin and of course it is necessary to identify and cut down the illegal activities of those who are trying to split up, will weaken our society used as a weapon, separatism, nationalism, not in nazism, xenophobes, it was also always applied in the relations of our country, now the demands are of course, the most active lives to activate all this, the frost on our land , mr. andriy, at the same meeting , another telling moment occurred when putin said that fsb employees also die during this war and there are, as he said, losses, although russian propaganda usually reproduces enough of one popular servant among them - it

will be lost, as the statistics show they have already lost almost 150,000 killed in ukraine of the general staff of the armed forces of ukraine, and if you multiply it by three, well, that's somewhere around half a million wounded military personnel. according to you, i already asked you, but i will repeat it until, probably, until the end of the war, is there a limit in general, for the russian federation, for putin , the losses will become critical when the society will already feel when they will understand that this is absolutely senseless, absolutely , great losses, huge losses since the second world war, this is the biggest war in in europe after the second world war, is there a limit beyond which russia will not be able to go, and will they go to the last soldier, relatively speaking, again, i do not know if there is a limit, i

can only appeal to some historical events because there is, for example, the history of the first world war where in general, if we take the current war as a matter of fact, it is in some ways similar to the first world war, because the result of the first world war was not that the countries that lost in this war went to their capital and put up a flag there is victors on the ruins of their capital, as it happened, for example, since the second world war, no one entered germany in berlin in the 18th year, and no one entered petrograd in the 17th year, when the russian empire hmm went to a de facto separate peace and de facto capitulation in front of the german-austrian bloc

, the collapse of the empire actually began, that is, it is possible. here is such an option . i think it is one of the most likely options for the development of events. although no one knows how these events will unfold , we can also recall the same russian the japanese war ended in a military disaster for the russian empire, although it was somewhere very far in the far east, it seemed as if it did not directly threaten the existence of the empire and a vital center there, but it ended with the first revolution of the russian empire, which also, well, actually put it on the verge of collapse, so i again, it's not that i believe in some kind of russian revolution, it's obvious that i don't believe that this population is capable of some kind of meaningful action, but some grandiose pogrom, grandiose civil the war that may be in russia as a result of a series of humiliating military defeats, the next ones that have already happened and the next ones, eh , i completely allow this against the background of economic problems, against the background of international isolation, and

so on and so on and actually what putin talked about eh he said that they want to divide us into muscovites , uralians , sibirsk into siberians, and they want to destroy russia. now he said what you showed about the rise of separatist sentiments in russia. it is very telling that they have already talked about it before. they talked about it, they just said that everything is great, everything is great, there are no problems, everyone supports putin, russia is monolithic, there is no separatism in russia , everything is fine. have to fight this means that this means that these trends are growing and it seems to me that this is actually very good and one of the results of this year's war that putin and his colleagues are already

saying directly that russia is threatened collapse and collapse at different levels, and this level is national. and this level is not only because the same, for example, there are all private military companies that are actually not subordinate to the official authorities, and we already see these internal conflicts, this is also one of the future lines of the civil war in russia, because of course, this is also one factor that plays a very serious role, that's why there is another factor that can influence the russian-ukrainian war . the territory of the republic of belarus was entered by russian troops today, self-proclaimed president lukashenko flew and arrived in china more faithfully to the chinese ceremony, the first person lukashenko met on the square was a wreath in beijing on the famous

tiananmen square, and this is also telling because it reminded me of another figure of our yanukovych in the past. well, the self-proclaimed president of the belarusians of china has already proposed the agenda of the meeting: support for china in the international arena, support for the chinese so -called peace plan without aggression and sanctions and china's support for taiwan , the so-called one-china principle, let's hear

what lukashenko said. the international agenda is fully supported by us. we condemn actions aimed at increasing tension around taiwan, belarus followed the one-china principle, advocated a peaceful solution and was categorically against interference of foreign countries in the internal affairs of the chinese people's republic well, of course, lukashenko is not such a global player, to put it mildly, as a sit-and-go and belarus is not china, but in this situation , we consider lukashenko's visit in the context of the statements of american officials who say that through belarusians and wants to bring lethal weapons to russia , as anthony blinken said, according to your opinion, if china

joins the russian-ukrainian war , how can all this end and what kind of war can it all turn into, or to transform well, i think that lukashenko definitely did not go to china to negotiate on the supply of weapons. i think that he went to china in order to mean armaments for russia. i think that he went to china in order to establish relations with a more serious suzaren, because susan, is lukashenko’s master, putin, er, at the same time, he himself is actually already a vassal of china, or is he becoming a vassal of china, and why would lukashenko talk to er, the master, they wrote something there , maybe it makes sense to try to speak as the strongest master, which obviously there is china and to somehow try to establish relations with him directly, so that it is possible in the event of the inevitable collapse of russia and putin

to try to loop around and somehow try to stay in power already at the expense of chinese support, although, to be honest, i still don't believe it, because lukashenko completely tied himself up after 20- th year and then after already 22 he completely connected himself with the fate of putin and the collapse of putin will automatically literally mean the collapse of lukashenko in a matter of days and in this situation if we are talking about the position of china then china behaves very cautiously all the time and i can say that it is very unlikely that china will start supplying russia with weapons, because china did not do this for the whole year of the war, including when russia's position was much stronger than it is now and now in to this situation, well, in fact, let it be indirect, but to get into a war that is clearly a losing proposition for putin and

to support putin. well, to be honest, if china has not done this before, i am very unlikely that it will do any work. this is further , so china is a much more powerful player than russia, much more powerful incredibly powerful but on the other hand, china is very cautious and china understands that 85% of its economy is related to its exports to western markets , and if china takes such risky steps , it risks very serious economic consequences for itself. the consequences can certainly be difficult for europeans, americans, and australians, canadians, and so on, but it is obvious that the test will also be difficult for the chinese, so i don't think that it makes sense for them to associate themselves so strongly with russia. it seems to me that the last statement is the opposite

of course, she is very like that of china. well, she is not specific, it is like that, for all the good against all the bad. of course, you cannot say that she is there for us, just as you cannot say that she is unequivocally pro-russian, she is very, well, in different directions and can be interpreted very optically, but the bottom line is that this whole statement does not in any way imply that china will suddenly take and start supplying putin with weapons there. well , somehow it does not come out of this statement at all, so i think that the americans rather do certain such informational steps to be and so these are basically statements at the level of the press to show that we celebrate this issue carefully and once again to remind the chinese that it is not worth it, it is not worth supplying russia with weapons , it is not worth crossing certain certain borders. i don't know if there are similar things , that is, it seems to me that, on the contrary, china will