[000:00:00;00] hall a, but in fact, it seems to me that in addition to super military questions, there is a big political issue here, because, well, look , russia has for a very long time convinced everyone with its propaganda that ukraine is some kind of fake state that is here it's a complete mess, anarchy, some uncontrolled battalions that don't obey anyone, that the state has completely lost control over the monopoly on the use of force, and so on . of course, this was all a lie, but now let's look at russia, some uh, completely incomprehensible status, and private armies that not it is clear to whom they were subordinated, who are entering into a direct public conflict with the military leadership. we are even with the political leadership, ah, who actually lead some kind of their own, including

a political group, that is, to imagine something similar today in the ukrainian army, it is impossible to avoid it, but in russia this is today's reality and a striking example is the same orphans of garnora. although it is not only them who can be said to be against the kadyrovs and many other things, accordingly in this situation we see that this degradation of the russian state the degradation of russian society and the russian army has led to the fact that in fact we can already see the contours of a possible future civil war in russia and the assessments of the conflict of the same wagners with the military leadership when they will open your gerasimo there they say that they are specially given ammunition there in order to somehow limit their actions and the like. this all shows that

russia today is slipping into such an absolutely bad sense, children of the middle ages, and it is, in principle, even this civil the war is actually almost underway because, well, when there is an organized armed group of people that allows themselves to publicly , well, actually enter into a public conflict with the military and political leadership there, it is essentially a civil war, so i think that it is actually good. this indicates how much there are big internal problems in russia , including in the military and political sphere , but of course this does not mean that we just have to wait until they finally quarrel and start shooting each other, we have to i am convinced that one of the direct results of the military defeat of the final military defeat of russia in ukraine

will be a bloody civil war in russia, where there will be many franks, many directions of this war, and we will see something much more brutal than it was even during the civil war that was in russia 100 years ago. well, i will tell you that such an example of military-political thought in general is interesting. i guess you , andriy, will appreciate it when the chairman of the state duma committee from defense, he says that private companies should probably buy air defense complexes for their own defense, well, that is, but here it’s just here, i’m just wondering how all these conflicts are in general, oleksandr to you, or whether they are already in some way, er, felt on the battlefield, that is, how do they directly affect on the battlefield, there is definitely an influence on the battlefield, that is, any army is

a management system, it must act as a whole when there is an internal one . what his gerasimo in er prigozhin then it is interdepartmental why because well just now gerasimo is actually the frunzen embankment - this is the ministry of defense of the russian federation a-and prigozhin is a man of the fsb, that is, lubyanka and thus there is an inter-departmental confrontation, but there are also internal a-a confrontation in every person a-a department has its own let's say er-e groups of influence that are also in conflict with each other and the most vivid example is this su it seems that he is also a representative of the ministry of defense

of the russian federation but he is a character he is in conflict with gerasius and shoigu, there are very difficult relations there, why? because he is a representative of a completely different group of influence, and this directly affects the course of hostilities in general in the hostilities zone, the most striking example from the past. by the way, this confrontation is syria. in syria it was the largest. this is the reason. from the ministry of defense, it was the wagnerites. it happened near the sight of the sight near which the group of the wagner pvk was destroyed , numbering up to 200 personnel. american apache attack helicopters were operating in the airspace near this city

, and the americans, er, gave a request to the er, russians, because they are communicating in syria, isn’t it your units that are moving in the direction of the rezor, the russians answered no, it’s not ours, because it was the ministry of defense of the russian federation it's the military no it's not the military, well in fact they said so and i see then they destroyed this column with the wagnerites then it was quite such a powerful scandal that many media outlets wrote about it but the most interesting thing is that it was a hundred percent reason from the ministry defense of competing organizations. let's say that wagner and the same situation is now observed, for example, even near bahmu. we all know about the tactics of wagner, which was used by prigozhyn, that is, he took from these prisoners in correctional colonies, he recruited them and everything else after their life. they sent everyone to soledar so that they would pelt soledar with their live meat, but who

really profited from this? when this happened in the first place, it was prigozhin who profited, he thus won this great victory for himself but what is happening now? and now there already, wagner is not a dominant element . he is not a monopoly. he does not have a monopoly on the conduct of hostilities. a monopoly who has a monopoly has 51 and 51 units. troops, the ministry of defense, they now have a full monopoly of hostilities there, but they catch pvk wagner just as he lives, as they are sent to waste on the first line, but

prigozhyn already has no profit from this, yes it has no effect on his reputation. so they will now continue. this is how they are used as a banal element for disposal , i.e. here is an illustration of when there is this confrontation and this confrontation in one way or another, but it leads to the fact that the resource is used inefficiently and well and uh from this and their er definitely also slowing down the progress of the defeat fiasco and other problems by the way, er, i read that there is a man named khodakovsky oleksandr who once led alpha and then fought there, then the vostok battalion and such. well, in short, a traitor in essence, but he fights all this time on the part of the russians and then he said that uh well, in principle, the fact that prigozhin is complaining is the only problem for him is that before he was in a privileged position and now he is just like everyone else and in this version, like everyone else, he

cannot fight as it turned out well, it’s like that, i want to talk about such an element because it’s often said that the weather there favors someone. it doesn’t favor someone. andriy, tell me, uh, from your experience, is there any influence of the weather at all on the battles that take place around bahmut , that is, or will there be for example there uh more more so more wet weather or stopped working is she able to slow down the russians, who is she playing right now? well, of course, the weather affects the nature of hostilities very seriously and probably still has a greater effect on the side that conducts offensive actions, although in fact the agreement has the same effect on defense , because anyway, even when you stand on the defensive, you have a huge amount of equipment involved that is constantly driving and constantly moving and it

needs either a road on which it can move or solid ground on which it can move if the weather is wet when there is completely swamp of course this very strongly limits the possibilities of using any technique, starting from ordinary cars and ending with tanks and everything else, therefore the weather in principle affects both sides , it is probably still more important for the one who leads us , but what is important is that now if we take the battle into account, then mainly my infantrymen will be there now, who are going at fairly close distances, and there is, uh, well , the use of artillery, which takes place with, well

, according to a certain rather large distance and it cannot be said that it somehow directly affects the soldiers who are in the trenches, because when there is knee-deep swamp it is very difficult . take into account the only thing that it is clear that when some large offensive operations are planned, they try to guess on their own. so it was a period of dry weather. now we cannot say that there are some uh-uh, i don't know what kind of giant tank columns there are, what kind of people there will be battles in mainly infantry. now these groups of infantry are relatively small. well, of course, there are artillery duels, but the weather also

affects it, of course, but probably not so radically. that he slowed down a little due to the fact that winter became difficult to move and, in principle , it became difficult to advance. offensive actions in this small such a period of time when it was a little as if something froze there, they started and were exhausted to a certain extent and what is the situation there now, that is, on what what now affects the possibility of a russian offensive in the area there in these territories, what about the russians? well, first of all, they continue

to accumulate their resources there, the forces and means are gathering there quite seriously. well, there are representatives of 50/7 mzd e-e 400 of the 28th msp. 124 msbr there are representatives of the barsu akhmat of the 76th airborne assault division i.e. a large, rather large number of forces and means but really they were unable to implement offensive actions why because, first of all, the terrain well, even if we talk about the freezing of the soil, it needs to be more er let's say more such a large-scale er more serious should there will be frosts because there is a lot of marshy terrain there, especially in the direction in which they were supposed to, for example, advance in the direction

of the estuary and also carry out offensive actions in the direction of srebynka there, especially through the forest through the swamps, well, in fact, the weather conditions exactly for minusing their entire history with offensive actions, and this is during the waiting period, the fact is that waiting also has an effect on combat capability and the potential for further advancement, so accumulation is indeed taking place, but at the same time, they are in a static position, and they are, in fact , every day the armed forces of ukraine are pressing with regular strikes, that is

, they are in a static position. yesterday it was open sources. we saw how russian tanks were destroyed near chernopovyka. this is the right bank of the red river. the most interesting thing is that it is the result of the effective training of our artillery units. well, it is located six kilometers from the contact line, this location, but it demonstrates how they try to use the old the soviet tactics of using heights like kholmiev and so on, but at the same time they use old soviet methods that do not work in modern conditions. and when independence from height, it is controlled what is behind this hill. what is behind that height and it is impossible to somehow hide tanks or equipment and others there. therefore, all this has a negative effect on their er-er combat capability and in fact er-er it can be said

that they have a sufficiently large the chances of successfully carrying out offensive actions in the direction of the estuary in the near future and, moreover, to go, for example, to the left bank of the oskil river, in fact, to completely occupy the left bank of the oskil river. no, i can’t have such options. i don’t see what they have for it oleksandr's resource is enough. and what do you think in general, is this, well, this shade of the matchmaking crime front, or can we expect it to be like this? so, when it gets a little warmer there, one of the hottest areas is it still a distraction ? that there really are possibilities of the armed forces of ukraine for a counteroffensive, it all depends on what conditions will be formed at that moment and what will contribute to that factor because, well, again

, returning to this topic of weather conditions, it indeed, one of the very important factors in the offensive. when you are on the defensive, the weather is one thing. it is more physical and moral-psychological discomfort if it is unfavorable. and when you conduct offensive actions , especially in swampy areas and also where there are forests of forests, this already has its own a negative plan for influencing the attacking side, therefore , this is an important element, but if we say general in the combat zone, the russian occupiers actually have places that are weaker than this . this is the line of svatov crime. to consider more broadly not just the svatovo crime but the svatovo troitske crime a-a because well, after all, it is important to fully cover the entire line along the r-66 route, and in this case

we can really have an advantage in some directions in kremenets. but in general, the situation along the entire route is very difficult , especially in the northern location, although there is also quite powerful pressure from the armed forces of ukraine. it's impossible. so, it's still more if we're talking about the counteroffensive - it's s- it 's still more directions in the south and in the south there are enough directions, it's not only the zaporizhia region, we can even consider such an option as the left bank kherson region, but that's all already, the scenario will be considered by the general staff of the armed forces of ukraine, which scenario will be chosen, and

this will be decided exclusively by the general staff of andriy, and speaking politically, how do you see the actions of the russians , are they now aiming at something more broadly or what could be their goal, that is, this particular summer campaign , let's not talk about the spring campaign. consider that it started where and there, everything is already clear, but it is obvious what will develop further, what can be the political goals of the russians for further actions, a political and strategic goal russia in this war is unchanged and it has been unchanged since the 14th year and is generally unchanged in history in this history of russia, the history of muscovy is the subjugation

of the destruction of ukraine. if we talk about a purely military goal, it seems to me today that simply prolonging the war without any concrete without any concrete strategic plan, i.e. it seems to me that after the failure of their blitzkrieg , after they could not turn the situation around, how many times did they try to turn it around ? it seems to me that now i just have a plan, something needs to be done and it needs to be done for as long as possible drag out the war in hope that the west will get tired there, ukraine will get tired there, i don't know here's something like that, that is, i don't mean that you should think that it will be easy in the future, it won't be easy in the future because what be that as it may, we are dealing with a country that has everything, that has very large resources

, much more than ours, first of all, human resources and still a lot of weapons, and to think that we already have a victory in our pocket, of course that is not possible a- and there is still a lot of very difficult struggle ahead, but i do not see any strategic, realistic strategic plan of russia to date. that is, it is just a hope that something will happen, that something will break somewhere, that is what i am saying there in the west , i will get tired of helping ukraine, we will win some governments that will want to negotiate with russia, and in ukraine there will also be some change in public attitudes there. and something like that. i think that they have, first of all, a calculation. now this is exactly the kind of war, it is just a tool of

pressure and a tool for prolonging it of the process, ah, although there may be different options, and even crazier, most dangerous ones, for which you need to be ready and understand that these are all conversations anyway. they had something to influence, because everything will be decided as before on the battlefield ah, and this the battle will be very difficult to think that it will be it is easier, unfortunately, it is very uneven, but we will still win it 100% well, i agree with you because it was so new for me that i began to hear on the air of russian tv channels that it is necessary to reach the 25th year in general somehow, that is can you imagine? yes, we are now at the beginning of the first decade of the 23rd. they are thinking how to make it to the 25th and, in principle , they see the only option - it is somehow to stop hostilities, to make some kind of truce on the front line, so they would invent something so that it would not be in someone needs to stop fighting

actions, and we'll see how it will turn out. that's why i agree with you that this is exactly how the situation looks now, oleksandr . look, but at the same time, information appeared . it's as if shoigu is demanding from general muratov , who was recently promoted, that he immediately advance on vugledar how do you evaluate this information in general? and why may or may not be all this movement around the ugledar well , because the ugledar is already a meat grinder , a large number of russian units of the 40th separate brigade of marines this is petropavlovsk-kamchatsky, as well as 155 omrmp, this is zlodevostok and other units that helped them, primarily motorized rifle units, and

let's just say that a large number of personnel and equipment were destroyed when they started their this is the second offensive on vugledar at the end of january , the beginning of february, because the first large-scale the offensive was in november 22nd, and then the 155th was also ground down there, and in fact they did not begin to withdraw their units from the coal mine to restore combat capability. because when the unit suffers heavy losses in personnel and in the equipment takes it away from the combat zone from the combat line of combat to restore combat capability, this was not done immediately to the combat line of combatants, they were brought personnel to restore combat capability according to the personnel, but at the same time , technical recovery did not take place, if it did take place, then

at least it does not satisfy the standard equipment of each division in terms of equipment and therefore well, if i am not mistaken, the york times called this battle near the coal mine the largest tank battle, although this is generally incorrect because on our side there was not a large number of tanks, the artillery worked first and foremost, where in general there were events when a large amount of equipment was destroyed in a certain period of time, for example, the forcing of the seversky donets, when in 24 hours more than 80 units of equipment were destroyed, and not in a few weeks, not in two weeks, but in fact, let's say this, now they have mainly an infantry component, and this infantry component must constantly go on the offensive, they can start driving them directly to vugledar, just as it was

near silodar with the wagner prisoners, it will be like this the scenario itself and it already demonstrates itself somehow, but it is one thing when you drive these prisoners through the agglomeration of the bakhmutiv soledar and so on, and quite another when on a clear field , and therefore it will be a soledar scenario, but with a much greater destruction of the russian occupation units and with much greater losses and with an even smaller effect because this is how the situation will be near the impact in the near future, that is, i understand you correctly that , in fact, the russians are betting on assault actions. the most important now, i.e., there are also vugledar and bakhmut and krimina, they first of all raise the infantry and not their own heavy weapons

, so today they have a shortage of the main part, let’s call it the technical part , it is sent first of all to the bakhmut bridgehead, the rest they do not receive a sufficient amount of this component, from this a problem arises. well, for example , there was another problem near the coal mine. this was that they did not have enough artillery fire, they did not have enough artillery, they did not have a proportional amount of ammunition even for that artillery, which was so this was another problem that had its negative impact on them in the direction of the coal-fired, there were other problems, but in fact this shortage and the distribution of equipment is proportional between all bridgeheads and units, this is a critical factor for today, the consequence of which is directly the number of losses

and their these are, to put it mildly, unsatisfactory successes, let's call it so short , is it possible, there is such a simple situation that they are also now, well, as if they are carrying out some such, well, preliminary actions, and actually himself bigger, and the technique and the offensive are still being prepared for well, there is already such a dry season and warmer , can it be like this? that is, it was like this previous ones , well, let's say probing. it's also not warmer this time of year oleksandr and andriy, let's briefly say what you think about this in turn. well, they can try in luhansk region after the weather will be warm, but it's not a fact that they will succeed in this direction at all.

andriy, what do you think? i think that definitely a wounded animal will rush before its final death, it is one hundred percent, but it seems to me that now the situation is such that at this level a rather large-scale performance operation, it will not be a complete surprise for us, that is, we will still see certain accumulation , we will see and understand that some direction can be the arena of some offensive actions. i think that the general staff is still calculating these moments and preparing

countermeasures accordingly, so in this case i will not to guess on coffee grounds, you just have to be ready. thank you, it was oleksandr kovalenko and information resistance expert andriy illenko, an officer of the freedom battalion of the national guard of ukraine, and at the end, i would also like to call on our viewers to join the gathering organized by the espresso tv channel together with the autoangel foundation and the civilization of europe charitable foundation this is a jeep assembly for the third separate assault brigade that performs tasks in the bakhmut direction, our soldiers work with drones, shoot a video with them, you all see, we love them watch and the enemy is always known by what he sees, join the collection, our goal is to collect uah 300,000 for the car, and we have already advanced enough in this direction, you can see the jr-code that you can download and very quickly actually join and have your own contribution to the defense bahmutu well, my time is over , now serhiy rudenko