[000:00:00;00] heroes like the hells of battle are born new ukraine the ukraine you protect is our native friends neighbors colleagues you were not always military but you were always ukrainians you are our pride and our hope we survived thanks to you we will win thanks to you together to victory the enemies must be stopped protect your we are ukrainians and we know very well what we are fighting for. we don't just dream of victory

, we are getting closer every day. we expel the invaders from our native land . we fight the internal enemy. we arrest the traitors who called for russian peace to him so that the occupiers paid in full for every crime and were remembered forever. ukraine is a free state that is able to protect its future, and ukrainians are a glorious people with a heroic history . sbu, we protect ukraine together. business, she helps those who want to grow and those who are just starting out

, gives opportunities to those who have skills, the main thing is to be ready to work and create such an opportunity for others, submit an application and a business plan, get a grant and work in ukraine because there is work, there is a government grant program for entrepreneurs, there is work, there is work, diee.gov.ua for the development of your business, which was in the video , you have nothing to fear, this is a territory controlled by ukraine, and i will tell you such words, you know, they are worth a lot and many of them are waiting, some have waited like kyiv region, chernihiv region and sumy region, e.e. kherson, and kharkiv region, and some are still waiting for the left bank of kherson region and berdyansk, well , in one word, and crimea, of course, and donetsk , luhansk, and e.e., but how soon everyone

has the same question as soon as i would like to start let's perhaps ask such a general question , at what point are we now, each of you, in your own direction, determine this point, people need to hear this, people want to know where we are, how long, not even how long the war will last, at what point we are now, at what point of the war so more once it's so simple, a little specifics, yes, the question is how long will the war on ukrainian land last, but just so that people understand what we are talking about. how long will the war on ukrainian land last, and we understand what is possible after it ends armed conflict, all this will not stop, yes, and being a political one, there is a religious issue. unfortunately, that's enough. that's exactly what we want to talk about with our experts. i want to introduce pavlo, a military expert . it's hard to understand what will happen next, because who would we be with? everyone

spoke, now the chief lobbyist is deciding the issue - it is the defense forces of ukraine. and petro brukovskyi, the executive director of the democratic initiative foundation named after ilko kucherev , and denis kazanskyi, a ukrainian blogger - political views and a journalist, and the first question is absolutely clear. natalya asked what stage we are at. yes , let's start with you. where are we? we are now in a very stable state at the front. our situation has not changed for about a month or so. there are no tricks here and there, we are standing on the threshold of the great ukrainian offensive, we are standing on the threshold of a turning point, but where will this turning point lead, and when will it begin , this is a very big question, the president of ukraine , the supreme commander-in-chief, said yesterday it seems that we are not ready to start an offensive at the moment because we are expecting large deliveries from abroad i absolutely agree with this

point of view why yes because we can advance but we will be able to achieve some operational successes , tactical but not strategic, we will not be able to reach the borders of 91 year, having what we now have in our hands, that's why we are 100% dependent on er allies . we stand on the threshold of a huge break and when this break occurs, the situation will change very quickly pick up this topic that we are waiting for a big counteroffensive and the ukrainian society itself is also now on the threshold of great expectations the research we are conducting shows that the majority of citizens, about 60% , expect a victory on some decisive change about which mr. pavlo said yes about the fracture and by

the fall of this year so there should be results , but if you say globally to answer your question until the end, the television show will continue until until the russian government invites peace and what can be done for this, there are also military means for this, that is, the destruction of the russian army, the destruction of certain points of gravity, and there are several of them in the russian government, and the second is the liberation of the ukrainian territories at this point. i think that someday it will remain when the russian government will invite peace itself, then we can say that the war is nearing its end. how far are we from the fact that the russian government will invite peace itself? well , it seems to me that first of all, if we are talking about the military component, then it really can to end there relatively in some kind of fiery future, in which plan, it is certain, it is possible that there will be a freeze, of course, it is very unlikely that ukraine, for example, will regain crimea, and because we

also see the statements of western politicians that not all territories of ukraine will be returned by military means, maybe some will returned er through diplomatic negotiations , and i think what is meant is the crimea itself, as far as the freezing of military operations is concerned, it is possible. i think that it is possible, er, maybe this year, maybe next year, but the fact is that it is certain there will be no end to the conflict, there will be no end to the conflict, because we really do not understand even if we forecast and model the situation if ukraine really liberated its territory and who said that russia will stop after that ? which will reach the borders of ukraine, the borders of 1991. but it will remain on the border and the line of contact with russia, so i think it is possible that the answer of mr. will be liked by all of us, but it

seems to me that while putin is in power and this story will not end one way or another, because this is really his personal story , and even if it is beneficial for him to freeze the conflict and we can see that they are already begging for some kind of cessation of hostilities, but it will definitely be beneficial for him to surrender and he will one way or another, let's say so, he has already declared certain territories of ukraine as territories of russia and everyone understands first of all yes and everyone understands that this is his personal story when putin either gets old so that he will no longer be able to fulfill his duties or his removed or he will die, then of course any next russian government, even though it will consist of some of his friends and associates, it will be able to say that you know it was all putin and they will be able to sit down in the future and agree on some kind of reboot, but for putin's time that this will happen. i don't believe because we see that

well, he has already lost his adequacy and he has already driven himself into such a dead end that for him the only situation is simply to really delay everything as much as possible. you said it correctly . yes, because well, we are just explaining only that started the conversation i quoted seems to be with a black ox, they said that during the great war, any totalitarian leaders who started the war want this war to last as long as possible because they understand that when they lose it is a matter of their life and death, so until the war is formally over, they go at least some hostilities, even though there are two shots a day. this gives putin the formal right to claim that all this is not yet a lost story and, accordingly , he somehow continues his existence in power as soon as this history is fully recognized programs, well, for him, he can be there the next day, they will knock on the snuffbox and on the back of the head, as they say, yes, as it is established in russia, and for him it will be very, very, or the surrender of nuclear tactical weapons in belarus, which putin has already

announced, tell me how much this changes the course of the war and this is a concrete escalation of the conflict, correct no why you i immediately for our viewers why i apologize and denys said the word conflict and i say it because it is the terminology of western partners and er and that is why we use international er terminology war, of course, we are talking about war, and they are a conflict, it is not an escalation. why is that? because the allies of the nato countries have nuclear weapons, well, the united states has nuclear weapons in germany , for example, this is not a warehouse, this is from the point of view of russia, for example, because belarus is both formal and documentary an ally of russia , so they can keep weapons there according to some of their agreements, the use of weapons will be with russia, as far as i remember, but this is a nato country. you can say that they are in

the same region in this region with germany it is possible to strike very quickly, the question lies more in technical capacity, russia was taking out its ships capable of not standing alone in the mediterranean sea, bringing one weapon to the shores of norway , and this was also not an escalation of the conflict. well, therefore , i am sure that the nato countries will not respond in any way to the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons is it strategic? for many years , they shouted about what nato is approaching my borders, putin said. now, in fact , nuclear weapons have approached nato's borders . the union was once huge, yes, that is, belarus was a part of the soviet union. it is difficult to say that the weapons were located there . they were in ukraine, and they were essentially russian weapons , and there was no escalation. i am more than sure that our partners did not will react to this and they will not perceive it as uh-uh if it is a game of shakhov so that this is our putin has taken a step accordingly nato must take another step that's how the reaction

will be but the reaction will not be there escalation not because there planes will start bombing belarus and it will be different, it may impose some sanctions on belarus, maybe some other pressure will start on belarus, but it will definitely not be in the form of a war. well, the question raised by denis is crimea, that it is possible for the whole of all territories to be returned by military means, in particular to crimea, i was listening to natalya when you talked with ben hodzhus, he said on the contrary that first we need to take away and liquidate the aircraft carrier base crimea and then deal with the territory of ordlo. look what will happen if crimea remains in russian under russian control the occupation is a huge military base that will control the black sea and the sea of ​​azov, and this means that all our ports will be blocked . that is, we will ask russia for another grain agreement. even if we get there and liberate mariupol completely there, then they will be

constantly under the threat of air strikes from the crimea and so on. now the situation is very good for this, there is an absolute understanding that the crimean bridge is not working, that they have a huge problem with logistics and, well, they need to be released about the fact that two agglomerations are still to be released, e.e. , donetsk region and luhansk region, and how to get to them because this place yes and i want to say that without crimea, we will not advance to donetsk and luhansk, because first of all it means cutting off the supply and then going there from the left bank of kherson means advancing to donetsk luhansk, so he said, but when denis said that it today blinkin already seems to have said that some territories will be liberated by political means, which , er, i didn’t see his wording

, i can’t say for sure whether we won’t have time to liberate or somehow he formed some territories in this way or not all territories of ukraine should be military way, some will have to be returned diplomatically as to a journalist. so tell me, hmm, is it correct ? well, we do, including when we orient people and experts and experts also orientate people at the border of 1991. are we correct? are we speaking or are we uh i don't have to say very clearly, very coolly, he said on the border of 1991, and we don't have another state border of ukraine ruslan zade and it seems like today someone of you said that even crossing the borders does not solve the issue of the end of the war because well, all the same, you said correctly, because well, all the same, they will shoot, and even there, these clashes can be no less bloody . so, the question is, have we not given people big expectations, which may not

be fulfilled, and then we will get, for example internal imbalance in the country but we are getting an internal split in the country and because people will say that no, only forward, and whiskey definitely has a resource, well, look again, i proceed from the fact that for sure some territories will really have to be returned by diplomatic means, that is, what is we talking about here it will not be a war tomorrow, but definitely the goal of ukraine is to completely return our territorial integrity and return the state border, something can really be returned by military means, something by diplomatic means, and i think that here just look, the situation for russia has also been falling, that is, a huge number of sanctions have been introduced against it, which are no longer the sanctions of the 14th year , they are really destructive, we see that they have a very serious budget deficit, which they are currently covering at the expense of their fund, which they bought earlier, but at the expense of the fact that

the introduction of oil prices for petroleum products means that there are no longer those surplus profits from hydrocarbons that they received before. that is , it definitely covers the flow of new money . economy and they will have to agree to lift the sanctions, that is, there is a military front, and there is an economic front, and we see that they said that they would bypass the suspension of military sanctions for i think that they will definitely not be lifted until they have been from certain territories yes, the return of the territorial territories of all er, let’s say yes, of all the captured ukrainian territories until they are returned to us . that is, this is what you call the diplomatic way of liberating the territory. they were not too difficult for her now, well, in principle, everyone admits that the sanctions are difficult and

that they should not tell the russian government that this is a problem, because we see that in russia the resource received in principle by which they support their army is coming to an end, that is, already the projectiles are running out and the equipment is running out, and it is not possible to produce new ones. it is because of the sanctions . yes, there are problems with there is again that there is no money, there is no more resource. the situation is only getting worse because volya is also new sanctions, and we see that those partners who through, including this international court , which announced putin issued an arrest warrant, we see that even those countries that used to maintain relations with russia have continued to maintain relations now they are already distancing themselves, statements are already being made that well, if putin comes to brazil, for example, which is a member of brics, and putin had high hopes

for brics because he said, well, we don't need that west either. we have india, china there brazil, south africa, and here it is. it turns out that brazil can be arrested if it comes. because they recognize the jurisdiction of this court. india is also splitting because they are becoming very toxic, more and more toxic , and there is less and less money in russia, in other words, these problems are accumulating in the sanctions are not in effect or at once, yes, they could have worked there in a month, but they are accumulating and the situation there will continue to deteriorate, the budget deficit is already several trillion rubles in the two first two months, uh, they planned what is this they will have a lesson well, for a whole year there is such a deficit, and well, that is, they have to solve something with this, they drag it out, drag it out but they understand that here and at the front problems have accumulated, here the problem is also economic and it is impossible to compete with the whole civilized world, it has to be anyway, it will be

all the same, stop it and negotiate now. putin is this obstacle. in fact, this is one person, such a lying stone under which no water flows , because because of the court decision, as they say , but before it was uh. it was a river of money and a river of opportunities. a now it's all gone and well and they have no other meaning. i think that sooner or later they will still be forced to sit down at the table and talk, because you can't do it alone. had powerful allies, this is the first time when russia has no allies, the interview with evie changed me a little, the rules are now the czech leader, and who just took over and when he said that maybe this is the last chance in ukraine to carry out such a counteroffensive, there is no it is huge in connection with what you said, denis, i want to ask mr. peter how far

it is possible to lift sanctions from the russian federation, and it fits into the logic of the western partners. well, because everyone is exhausted , and is it realistic to imagine that our western partners they can exchange certain sanctions there for the departure from ukrainian territories of the russian federation or vice versa, the diplomatic way, whether it is years, tens of years, no, you know, first of all, i do not agree that russia will suffer a lot of losses , for example, how much did they freeze in a year, yes right at the beginning of the invasion, there were about 300 billion dollars that were in different countries of the prize-winners in the same year, they earned two-thirds , that is, about 230-240 billion due to the sale of oil and gas. well, two-thirds of the frozen funds they recaptured are live funds, they are moving on to a number of western banks continues to work in russia, raiffeisen, the austrian bank is big

, but we heard the phrase, yes, we heard such a figure that and only in belgium russian assets are frozen in russia, it is different in different forms for 56 billion in switzerland only seven but in march when the swiss looked at how much money they have, not even assets , not assets, but just money in their banks connected with russia, about 210 billion, they froze only seven, i.e., what am i not going to do later, first of all, the sanctions that currently exist, they allow for something to say no, in fact, nuclear sanctions are starting to wear off, what do you think? no, but i think that the sanctions that have been applied are more of a punishment for the fact that russia has violated international law. international law is very serious, because the entire world economy works on this basis. i listened to experts who said that it is already unprofitable for the western partner to soon impose sanctions because they will soon begin to act on themselves. that is, the sanctions will already be against them, against their economy . they said something similar that we have practically exhausted it. the head of the eu we have practically

exhausted the resource. of sanctions this is not quite yes , there are nuclear sanctions when it is completely prohibited for everyone, for example, the united states says the european union that no settlements with russia, none of them can be carried out in dollars or in euros, do you want in ions, i said there urine at the meeting, many yuan, he already knows the words, trade in many yuan, yes, buy chinese eggs, they will be diamond , not 17 hryvnias, they will be 100,200 rubles each , and this is from china. all this can be done, and it is still lying in the us treasury, this is the one the european union also has a nuclear instrument, and it can be applied, but it is necessary to understand that this is the experience of all the previous world wars that when it comes to the economy and that i will dispose of frozen resources, i will continue to conduct relations with in russia, everyone thinks that the war will end. yes, for example, they will remove putin, even though putin has problems, they will remove putin

, and trade will begin again as usual, and so on, the exchange of investments, and so on . will not return to the circle of civilized nations in the foreseeable future, so we must prepare for the fact that there will be a two-bloc system or are they like in 1991 ? remember that in the second world war, the united states did not immediately enter this war and continued relations with hitler. that is, it is not only, unfortunately, unfortunately, not only by the river, unfortunately, we bear the greatest losses. he categorically told me no to this. there is no need for quotes . yes, but uh, they can finally understand that there will be no need to go back, it is necessary to apply nuclear sanctions to russia

, it is necessary to look for options on how to enable ukraine not to it is allowed to help on a large scale and, moreover, to support ukraine's efforts to destabilize russia, because the war will stop only then, not when we even drive them out of the borders . and the west, by the way, can also contribute to this in the tapes of an interview today putin gave to some propagandist pavel for being rude and he told about these negotiations, he talked about the earthly directions of work and this is your topic. he said that 1 million there are a lot of projectiles for ukraine, but in the leading nato countries, 14-15 thousand projectiles are produced every month, and the armed forces of ukraine use up to 5,000 otaks in less than a day . this is

a task from putin. there are not only the states, not only the european union, there are other countries that produce ammunition, and this is ammunition for soviet weapons, 122 caliber, 152 caliber, we have enough tables, there is another way to solve the problem. it is very fast, and here it is a purely political issue in warehouses in the states the states and allies of the usa have approximately 3 million dpi projectiles, this is a cluster munition of 155 mm caliber. this is a purely political question, and whether or not this munition will, in addition, have a huge amount of aviation munitions. they are like ukraine, and this issue is already on the way to a solution. jadam who make smart bombs out of dumb bombs and we have basically everything to make these bombs work except for such an important component, they don't give us all the projectiles because they are cluster because they are

cluster yes precisely because the usa can blame well, in some kind of humane attitude towards the russian occupiers, they don’t give us cluster air bombs that are smart, in order to fully use them, we need more petri systems, let’s say directly because at the moment, well, these smart bombs, yes, they can fly 70 km in theory, but in reality we cannot fly high because the russians have a huge number of air defense systems and a huge number of fighter jets, we need to deal with this . will break this problem, but when he talks about the fact that, as he said, lord, the instigators of war and the instigators of war are going to send 400 tanks to ukraine, and at this moment, it means that we are producing more than 1,600 new tanks, and so oops. and where

did the russians get this number in the first place that i understand that uralmash started working in three shifts, but not to such an extent that they have enough resources . unfortunately, we see that there are enough people in the soviet union. the third already forgot which ones the third is yes yes the ural wagon chelyabinsk and they all together produced 800 per year, that is, where did the growth come from, despite the fact that there were fewer agreements, he says. we don't allow excessive militarization of the economy, uh, that's it, uh, that's how we broke the cops today. i

was talking about what muzhenko gave an interview. 55 now for 55 and 62 and so on. and for a long time we broke spears and came to the point that, well, the figure of 300 per month is unrealistic because they have an order for a contract between 109, what kind of armored tank plant there is, and the ministry of defense for 800 for the restoration of 800 tanks in three years, well, that is, one tank for a day approximately, well plus minus uh, that’s why the number is 1600 well, the relay is small, our viewers always ask well, when you already know , the discussion is exhausting and the audience always covers the map with such a question well, well, russia can still do something, she has something else there trump trump served it they will return something like that well, yes, they have dagger missiles there, they have zircon missiles , but they are in microscopic quantities , well, that is, the first thing we are talking about is that each missile costs 20-30 million dollars, ladies, we can’t shoot them down, yes, they

hit there for sure there and so on, but their units for the army are a huge mechanism, you can’t take that i only have missiles, and i invented something with these and missiles, well, a vivid example, for example, the usa fought in afghanistan in the war, they had dominance in the air , one hundred percent no one flew there and their the bombers did whatever they wanted to the mixers, but they didn’t have to do anything on the ground and they left those countries well, but if you ask, it’s a little too much. otherwise, you see , china has now left. well, i took such a break , so to speak, and in the eastern sense, i was intrigued to think to the horror of everyone, putin is explaining that this is a big victory, that in general he has already arrived, but the question is, at what point can the west not agree with china , not rub off on its balance sheet when china

goes crazy? well, they have already gone crazy, i think the visit that was being prepared was prepared in advance and the 12-point statement, yes, according to the eastern horoscope, 12 points, a-a, it was prepared exclusively so that the visit of president xi to russia would look like it was supposed to discuss peace issues. it was actually a deception this is a war plan. china is betting that russia will not lose this war, and this visit shows that they are in agreement. to do everything so that russia does not lose, unfortunately, this is also a reality. therefore, for this, we also need to think about how to build relations, as he fit in specifically like this and for this there is evidence and the fact that they supply drones and obviously they will continue to supply us with drones, without this they did not find any traces of beijing in the non-delivery of weapons, these are the latest warnings from washington, what can you comrades of beydzyn think and still not put a dead horse on a dead horse