[000:00:00;00] welcome to the news of the economy as on the espresso tv channel. my name is andrii yanitskyi. if you watch us on youtube, please like it, send the link to your relatives and friends, and do not forget to subscribe to the espresso tv channel. if you want to sponsor the tv channel, there is a sponsor button, which will open up additional opportunities for commenting and exclusive materials, let's start with such a russian financial pyramid for almost 40 million dollars operated in ukraine, the security service stole such a large-scale fraudulent scheme, the organizers offered so-called clients to invest money on the account of a company that allegedly helps to multiply their capital investments, fraudsters also guaranteed bonuses for attracting new participants to the project to the organization

, involved more than 10 people, primarily russian citizens, started working on the territory of ukraine, they managed to deceive more than 1,000 even after 2017 of persons, the security service calls on citizens who have become victims of fraudsters to report this expansion of production and presence on the ukrainian market, this was discussed during a visit to ukraine the vice-chancellor of the minister of economy and climate protection of germany, robert habek, and representatives of german companies are interested in war risk insurance mechanisms for foreign investors. crimes against the donetsk and luhansk regions continue to terrorize

the civilian population, but ukraine is not going to surrender and with the support of partners with the support of germany we will definitely win we we are preparing for the spring offensive of the counteroffensive and, er, we are all deeply convinced that we will liberate our territories and have the support of our partners. well, before moving on to the conversation with our guests, i want to remind you about a new youtube project related to the economy called he is a business with andrii yanitsky. i invite to this program business representatives who are either a small business that has shown its stability and is developing and can share its experience with others, or is a business created by resettled veterans or a business that has a great social contribution to the development of our society and has something to tell about, if you are such a businessman or know such a businessman and want to get into this

program, please find me on social networks, write me, i will come and see if such a business really exists, how it exists, let's agree and you will appear in the youtube project business with andrii enisky, there are already 4-5 episodes. watch the youtube channel, you won't regret it, it's very interesting, and now i invite the guests of the financial analysts of the financial analyst of the icu investment group mykhailo demkiv to the broadcast. also financial expert yevhen dubagryz. good morning. so, the main news is probably last week and still this week is the loan of the international monetary fund for ukraine, a record loan in the amount of more than 15 billion dollars for four years, we have already discussed it a little, but today there is something

to talk about in more detail that the memorandum has been published and you can already find some nuances there. since we are talking more about finances, i am interested in what will happen with ukrainian banks as a result of the implementation of these agreements, perhaps with mr. yevgena, let's get started. in general, there is a very simple rule for evaluating such documents as memoranda. we look to understand what worries our partners, what we, as the obligees, have undertaken . what exactly are they? on what topic are they? in the current memorandum, there are 19 such beacons , 10 of which are dedicated to fiscal policy, that is , the budget, and taxes so that our economy

can function more or less independently. oh, but uh, and only the remaining nine are about everything else , about anti-corruption policy , about corporate governance, and about banks and monetary policy. for banks about the regulation of banks and in our country, judging by the terms of the memorandum, there will be a fundamental restructuring of the principles and work of supervision of banks in general, and then for banks, what is meant by that, first of all , it is directly stated that there will be a reorganization of banking in general supervision of the national bank reorganization for us is generally changes, including personnel. the second point is that it will be introduced by the end of june this year. such new tools as supervisory

panels, that is, when the supervision of banks takes place not only in the form of committees, but also in the form of discussions of comprehensive specialists - this is from my experience at the national bank, we had this in such a light version, it really helps to understand in general what is happening with the bank and how and what to do next and the third point we already have until the end of next year, until the end of june next year, we have a condition to implement the so-called e-e growth bass supervision, that is, supervision is based on risks, that is, on the supervision of a specific bank, already a specific financial institution, namely, there are focal risks, which risks does this bank create? are these risks inherent in the system, what are the risks of doing this it will be absolute for us know-how , we have never had anything like this before. these are very correct actions, the only thing that worries me is the pace prescribed there, will the national bank manage

to do it even with the help of partners. well i hope that it will be in time and we will see a completely updated supervision, reformed, as for us, i would even say supervision, mykhailo and i. do you think such changes are appropriate? well, it seems that the reform of the national bank of ukraine was carried out quite recently, in the 15th year and well, it took some time and again everything has to be reformed again. hm. why is that? well, it is hardly possible to say how again in a new way, rather it is a continuation of the reforms that were carried out in the 15th year, there were only challenges then and associated with the so-called oligarchic bank e-e banking which is related to e-e crediting of one's own companies under very such e-e requirements are not very detailed as a result we

saw a large, large number of banks falling now of course e-e a little different level that turned out the banking system is qualitatively better but there is a big, of course, there is a challenge in the war, the challenge is related to the deterioration of the portfolio, and accordingly, somewhere here, supervision is also needed, and the second point, which was not completely , or rather, very poorly, was covered during the last cycle reformation is actually not banking financial institutions, they came under the supervision of the national bank itself as late as 2019. in fact, this process was delayed because of covid, now because of the war . i expect

, for sure, there will be bigger changes in the non-banking sector, and new bankruptcies, bankruptcies of banks or maybe non- banking institutions. when are you investigating, whether it is in connection with these changes or in fact nothing it won't change significantly, well, if it's already written to someone, it's destined to go bankrupt, it will go bankrupt. that is, the change in itself will not lead to any uh bank failures or uh other pugs. i think that the withdrawal of banks from the market will be. well, let's be objective, there is a war , there is a very large economic loss of ukraine, and pretending that all banks are equally good, this is not true. there is a safeguard against this in the form of a hundred percent guarantee

deposits and ukrainians, individuals have already checked it because several banks have already been removed from the market and ukrainians have received 100% of their guarantees because not banking institutions. well, unfortunately, the situation is that there are a lot of them, and the market is not transparent. even there, it would have been worth it without the war to expect, let's say, a reduction in the number of employees of the company , the removal of such unscrupulous companies from it, this should be even without a war. traditionally, the exchange rate of the hryvnia against the dollar and we see what is happening more precisely, it is not particularly clear to me whether the hryvnia is stronger or the dollar is weaker, what is the reason, mr. mykhailo , let's continue to discuss this topic with you, then i will also ask yevhen

to comment on the exchange rate. i would like to remind you that the official exchange rate of the dollar to the hryvnia has been fixed since the beginning of the great war, and the euro exchange rate fluctuates according to how the exchange rate changes on international markets. it has been quite fluctuating lately. here we are talking about the change in the cash exchange rate. compare to the official one, yes, there are 36.6 fixed ones. and for the entire time of the great war, the exchange rate, the difference between the official and the cash exchange rate was quite large, at one time it was allowed to be reduced. and now we see such a long period for probably more than a month -e reduction of the actual cash rate, and here there are probably many different reasons until the end of the feeding period, the cash market is not transparent, uh, how on it, how do certain processes take place on it, but this explains a few, and the traditional seasonal

sale of dollars by farmers for financing seed, that is, the increase in the supply of cash currency is somewhere in the signs of the effect of the measures that the national bank introduced at the end of last year with the offer to ukrainians without buying dollars for cashless deposits, that is, reducing the demand for this same cash currency. well, the third one is such and such the explanation is that the actual closing of many e-e betting offices of online e-e casinos by sanctions of the nsdc and also the national bank in the light of this whole scandal greatly complicated the operation of crypto-currency, that is, the withdrawal of e-e currency from ukraine through such channels has at least decreased. i have seen various estimates that are very large in terms of their volume. i am not sure that it is really

900 million e.e. dollars per month, it is probably a smaller amount, but for a certain period of time, it has obviously decreased this volume of withdrawal , according to the demand for currency has it decreased, mr. yevgeny, is there anything to add? perhaps some other factors have influenced. well, what will happen to the rate now, if it is not possible to accurately predict the number, then perhaps some trajectory can be laid in relation to the rate, as i looked at it from another angle. from the point of view of such macro-perspectives this one the situation with the exchange rate now clearly illustrates the thesis that the exchange rate is a function of international aid. if they help us and give us loans or just aid, then the pressure decreases , more currency enters the country , the pressure on international reserves decreases. and therefore, more currency means less demand for it in general. in march, we also received a tranche

from the european commission. and now the imf immediately transferred two and seven billion dollars, and we can see, according to the sales statistics , that the national bank intervened, that in january there were interventions at the level of 3 billion, that is, the national bank 3 billion sold from reserves in february it was already 2.4 in march already 1.7 i.e. less national bank sells less demand for currency and so and so yes the hryvnia is stronger there itself the hryvnia is stronger what forecast do you know for the national bank in general there they say that the first rule of forecasting the exchange rate is not to forecast the exchange rate don't talk about the exchange rate at all. but now it is. the situation when the exchange rate depends. it seems to me that it depends entirely on our actions, on the actions of the government, and on the actions of the national bank, that is, if we fulfill the commitments we made. if we continue there there are structural changes in the economy if we attract foreign investors, here was your story about insurers from germany, it is not

only from germany, there are many places where they come from. if we do this, if we attract money to the country, will we provide these guarantees and insurance there? other mechanisms of risk distribution, then the pressure on the hryvnia will be less, there will be more currencies coming in , the hryvnia will be more or less stable, that is , we look at two things, we look to forecast the course on the dynamics of the flow of money to us and on the dynamics of execution by the government the national bank and the parliament in general fulfill their obligations if both and that are consistently fulfilled, then i do not think that the dollar will rise strongly against the hryvnia, that is , there will be a plus-minus at the level that it is now, if we do not fulfill it, then of course anything can happen. mykhaila. as far as i know, there is a macro forecast in your company, and the number is not directly written there. well, by the end

of the year, it seems that 40 hryvnias per dollar is still a small decrease. your macroeconomists expect what the logic of the forecast is in principle. the official rate, which is set by the national bank and with the basic forecast , it will also be fixed at the end of this year , and many are inclined to think that we will see 36.6 throughout the year 2023, taking into account the factors listed by yevhen, the reserves at the beginning of april, we have 32 billion this year, the level in absolute terms that was as far back as the 11th year, that is, there have not been such large reserves for a very long time, and what is the logic of the fact that we put 40 hryvnias 20 kopecks at the end of the year

- this is already a longer horizon planning in the same the nbu itself is already looking at the year 2024, and if it is not like this, the situation with external financing will be rosy, then the national bank will preserve reserves by raising the exchange rate, but it is absolutely not a fact that we will reach such a large exchange rate. it is clear about the dollar. here are our aggressive neighbors. well , unfortunately, nothing we can't do anything about it, the situation looks like this. in this way , chinese yuan trading has increased more than dollar trading. i understand that it is possible at an interbank, yevgeny. does this indicate that, in principle, russia can do without the dollar? switch to yuan i don't know ruble or any other currencies and so encapsulate yourself from the foreign market if in one word maybe just maybe yes er i think i 'm just speculating a little on this and you're saying it's really

possible it's not that it will happen, but many countries live without a dollar and are detached from the western financial system and at the same time function. but in this case , well, it is not about any development, especially the development is about economic growth in the long term about building a normal life for citizens in general, and it is not about at this stage, because russia is very strongly tied and now was tied to western markets and the fact that they are being squeezed out of there with the help of sanctions and other economic mechanisms. i wish, mykhailo, and this is the yuan, and this will be the last question, we are running out of time, but i would like to hear your opinion on the success of the yuan in the russian markets. is he talking about

russia's dependence on china, or am i exaggerating , does he agree it is about addiction in russia, they did not switch to the yuan because of a good life. they did not understand the currency. in the 21st year, the volume of turnover was practically very low. few people had accounts in yuan . and only because hundreds of billions of dollars were frozen due to sanctions, they have to to switch to currencies that are safer for them in order to simply have some additional income. no, they were not blocked, but i disagree with yevhen. they will not do without the dollar, at least because it is the dollar that sets world prices such goods such as oil and gas, other raw materials - this is what russia exports, in which currencies did the transactions take place through which countries, complicating these same

transactions, they have pricing in the dollar, and when china and india trade with russia, they still push away from the dollar, well, let's see how it will be with us, mykhailo demkiv, a financial analyst of the isu group, and evgeny dubogres, a financial expert, talked a lot about the imf, banks, currencies, the dollar and the yuan. tomorrow at 8:00 a.m. live on the air together we will win and this is one fourth of the champions league matches man city vs. bayern and real vs.

chelsea the loudest matches exclusively on megogo fm galicia russian hackers attacked radio fm galicia tried to break into the air the attack was repelled well what a fierce impression on your cyber such radio fm halychyna has prepared its answer and we heard that our armed forces promised a spring counteroffensive to the occupier, so radio fm halychyna will become a device for informational spring counterattack, hear and even see life the war is going on galicia is not good for the russians for the ukrainians the us state department officially recognized the ukrainian mass media as partially free in its annual report the us state department condemned the disconnection of three ukrainian tv channels from

the t2 digital network a year ago espresso was illegally disconnected from the t2 digital network for no reason, no explanation, no one did not take over our shutdown, did not explain why we cannot speak, and most importantly, when we will be returned to the digital air espresso, continue to work for the victory of ukraine, we did not betray our viewers, our journalists become laureates of state awards and the most influential world media cite the laureate as an awardee. we continue to report russia's crimes against ukraine and fight street propaganda. freedom of speech is one of the main requirements for ukraine's membership in the eu and cannot be restricted even during war. well, listen, is there freedom of speech? in a country where independent mass media are deprived of broadcasting the authorities must correct their mistakes and not harm the european integration of ukraine, we demand

the return of espresso to the digital air war in in ukraine, the main topic for ukrainians is victories and losses, analysis and forecasts, politics and geopolitics, all this will be discussed by serhiy rudenko and the guests of his program, people who have information and shape public opinion, people who defend ukraine and create the future. the main and interesting thing in the program is the verdict of serhiy rudenko from monday through thursday at 1:00 p.m. repeat at 6:00 p.m. we return to our marathon andrii sachuk today he is leading it for you well, gentlemen , there is a lot of interesting news from the trump trial

. i will remind you that this trump became the first the president of the united states who ended up on the bench eh, that is, in this sense, he will definitely go down in history as the biggest loser president and the president with the most strange tanned face and hairstyle. well, this is already a comment in the style of trump himself. i think eh, gentlemen also today, our president zelensky will pay a foreign visit , not the first since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, with a visit to warsaw, what does this visit mean, what will be its practical results. and we will also be today during of the day, the process, of course, to tell, to cover the course of this, this event, well, there's also a little news with the russian federation , it's an interesting russian idea is going to ban any feminist movements, everyone, and recognize feminism as an extremist ideology. that 's the story in the project, it's about the fact that all feminists are agents of the west and the ideology itself

, it is very harmful to the russian national , so to speak, ideas to the russian measure. well, the main blame that is thrown by the russian feminist minister is that almost all russian feminist organizations spoke out against the war in ukraine, that is, they made anti-war statements , that is, once again officially, extremism in russia is when people allow themselves anti-war statements. this is a manifestation of extremism, so extremism is not when you attack a neighboring state, kill children, rape women you steal and so on, this is not extremism, it is just a valuable russian measure, but when someone dares to say in your country that it is ugly, then this is already extreme extremism and requires a ban. well, but in

in principle, it is necessary to say that feminism is primarily about equal rights for women, leadership opportunities for women, this is exactly what goes against the russian peace, with its demonstration, with its position of women, like the one who should be in the kitchen with children and whom and if they beat, they mean and love well, our goal is to keep this russian peace as far away from us as possible, to leave it somewhere behind the iron curtain and as far as possible from our memory and forget so that our children did not have a relationship with him, she is for this each of us today he is helping the military at the front if he is not at the front. well, let me remind you that the 110th motorist brigade turned to us for help. they are in the avdiiv direction, the most difficult direction, for many years, in fact, from there , the russian troops have been holding back our troops in fierce battles

unfortunately they lost almost all the transport and they also need two drones to adjust the fire and now we collected 30,000 yesterday by the way with you in addition this is a good result we already have 177,000 we need 400,000 in order to buy the necessary drones you can see a qr-code on your screens now, you can use it if you have a smartphone that supports this function, just turn on the photo mode and point the camera at the screen, that is, at this qr-code and the above link will be highlighted, click on it once and it will show you sends immediately to your bank card or simply you can rewrite this number below you see monobank and it is there how many there are 14 digits in a row 5 3 7 5 4 1 1 2 0 5 2 8 2 3 8 2 well, transfer it already there who can transfer how much well and then

i hope that we will be like this in more detail a report on what we bought and how it helps now, you know that they don’t live long, only at the front, especially now, in such bad weather, in difficult weather conditions, you can live somewhere for two weeks. that car, well, but it greatly improves the life of those who are there now imagine what it would be like to spend, for example, 2-3 days there in a trench in such weather. oleksandr hanushchyn, major of the 103rd thyroid brigade of the armed forces of ukraine, a deputy of the lviv regional council, is already with us . actually, i wanted to ask, where are you now, what is the situation there, where can you comment, where i am now is very calm, and our unit is defending ukrainian land within the kharkiv region, and it has been quite

restless there for the last two weeks, i would say so, because such an enemy is building up its arthurian presence, but nevertheless his achievements are more than modest in general, i personally believe that our enemy is already slowly expiring in this winter offensive in the process, and his successes under the coal-fired and his very modest successes nearby the avdiyivkas are in the midst of the chaos and they are the same. i would say modest successes in the kharkiv direction. it is obvious that their doctrine is that they wanted to make a significant advance in the winter, and they sent the whole of gerasimov here to lead all their troops. it didn’t work, so we have to prepare for a huge plus for yesterday - this is the news about almost 3 billion demands from the usa and the news about what the foreign ministers of nato will do for us e-e countries i'm sorry nato will make

a long-term program for us and what will it be to support the country, because there is more optimism with spring, there is generally more of it. that is why we must go forward, prepare for difficult battles and win back the temporarily occupied ukrainian land more and more. in fact, by the way, i saw it even on the russian airwaves , which i still have to monitor, of course, julia davis there is such an american woman who helps a lot in this sense and by the way then it is not necessary to listen to the russian language, you can just watch english subtitles, this is a good option, but more and more i just see that in them, even at a more or less national level, there is already an awareness of what is possible. they will not be able to win this war as they imagined. does this, in the end, open up some options for a faster end to the war? and in your opinion does not open an opinion yet, so far their rates of mobilization, i would say so, are more than satisfactory, at least judging by the last