[000:00:00;00] literally at a comfortable height in order to hit it, that is, even if they continue to do it with impunity against the kherson fields, mostly still kherson fields, here we must admit that these bombs are russian, they are even less accurate than russian artillery and mostly they hit the mark, although there are cases in pereslav for example, they went to the pedagogical college or to the abandoned building of the cheese factory there in boryslav, that is, there are cases when instead of a huge cliff in the field we can see a destroyed building and it is quite dangerous, but anyway, this the advantage has not yet caused any problems for the armed forces of ukraine, except that it has caused additional fear for the civilian

population, which they are terrorizing in every possible way . energodar and the zaporizhzhia nuclear power station were so messed up that in the area of ​​novaya kakhovka the enemy is burying barrels with something, so to speak, we understand the unpleasantness of what is going on now it is said and what are the dynamics there, maybe you have some additional information, uh, i am saying right away what is the content of those barrels of beds , it is still unknown, they buried them, and it seems that they did it on purpose in order to see why so, because they leave these buried tubs slightly half-open so

everyone who drives by saw or passed by saw that these brackets are buried there, that is, most likely it is a demonstration of the fact that everything is mined in order to frighten the local residents, whom they consider to be ours, and to convince the armed forces of ukraine that they are going to this direction makes no sense, silly well, i think that anyway it is not the best direction nova kakhovka itself, er, and the dniproans in order to attack it, because there are large bases there, there is targeted artillery, which is the most susceptible, probably the most susceptible to shelling , it is the cossack vela with from our side and they are shooting from there . well, even though it is not surprising that the russians also mined the water area along the coast, that is

, they left explosives in the explosive device. they left them in the water from afar. at a shallow depth, probably in order to make ukrainian amphibious operations impossible, and they themselves recently became a victim of their own mines while trying to cross to cossack island. so, this island was used for a certain time by the russians also for their subversive analysis of armed groups , although on a permanent basis they are usually present there, but here is an attempt, another attempt, to ferry such a group there. led to the fact that it seems that the five russians who were there all died, that is, the mine was not extremely fast in terms of power, it is more similar to against a tank, although it is quite possible that they have the smallest

possible anti the ship mines that they drop there with explosives somewhere up to several tens of kilograms are quite enough to turn into small pieces my metal products in the south, pieces of scrap metal , any boat or boat, what actually happened to them, but in any case, let's say this is the coast . i have not revealed the military secret that it is not suitable for landing. there are other areas where it can be done . it is possible not to consider the kherson region as such. but here it must be stated that the russians were well entrenched in novaya kakhovka and it was absolutely impossible to storm them. well, mr. volodymyr, we understand that all this is in principle mykolaiv oblast, but

imagine kherson oblast without the kinbur spit purely geographically, it is absolutely difficult, are there any reports coming in? is it possible that you know something about the situation there, the first russian on a permanent basis of russian troops in three villages of the mykolayiv region and there are numerous recreation bases there as such, that is , the artillery work of ours tsesu from ochakov kusoruba, one way or another , she drives them away, so to speak, for heroism, or expels them in the territory of the kherson region, on the other hand, they still go there periodically , and it is such an unpleasant trend, let’s say it like that it's only worth telling the command of the south that when

they were finally expelled from there, how they are going to shell ochakov or some robo community the next night, that 's why i'm not ready yet ani let's say some optimistic messages and even predict something optimistic it turns out that it cannot be the direction for our strike again because there is a line of defense that completely covers the dishes, that is, it is precisely in the area of ​​the heroic uh, we don’t have any half-fleet there to land further south, well, there were attempts to land drg there, yes, they were, they were possibly successful, but still, for the operational development of the advance , the transfer of large forces and equipment is necessary , which at a distance of 4 km yake yaka separates chaki and er kinburg dishes in its westernmost part

er it is practically impossible to build such, for example, a full bridge there and protect it from enemy shelling. moreover, what is going on there is the same as over the dnieper. there is a constant struggle of drones. ochakova uh, well, of course, they are shot down and they fly there again, so there is no advantage either in the air or in artillery , it is an even fight there, mr. volodymyr , finally, we would like to ask you about the success of our artillerymen, so to speak, in filtering the 30-kilometer zone from the left the banks of the dnipro from where the enemy regularly attacks kherson and we understand that they were given such a task in order to commit another genocidal act against the residents of myrny kherson. yes, but in any case, we wanted

to ask how successful they are enemy fire positions, and i will say right away that the enemy shelling has not decreased, in particular, and from mortars and hailstones, there are already such uh , let's say that the places that can be defined as the most uh, dangerous are the southern part - this is the center, as well as the eastern suburbs of antonivka , the korabel district and the western suburbs of kamishany, bilozerka and further from the giant dniprovske and stanislav with a wide beam , let's say this, accordingly, i will not name the safer areas now, not for money to well , one way or another, this is what you are demonstrating now yes, it is not far from in this very area. as there is one of the historical buildings in particular that were robbed by the russians in

the regional art museum, as well as cardio pantsir, there are such old, former, er, russian collection banks , also historical buildings in the mutual credit bank, er- there is such a building, this sokolova , is also a historical one of it is probably the most beautiful architectural masterpieces of kherson, which constantly suffer from such shelling, and nevertheless it can be noted that any russian hospital starts from there flies here and then starts somewhere from the north, not from kherson, from the north, it is not known which fields or forest dragons, or maybe the pie flies in that direction and is stuffed. i don't know if

the kherson owners of these transfer houses will be happy about that, but the fact remains that there are fewer and fewer opportunities for greens until the appearance of greens on these islands will reduce and fewer opportunities for the russians to do so to mask the personnel and stocks of mines there. well, they can't drag anything more powerful than a mortar there, because it's by boats. only now they will clean up. well, one way or another, they are successful, so it can be stated that they are russians, they can't have more than one room there to do, for example, from hailstones, and these successes can also be stated that less and less heavy weapons specifically hit kherson, more and more they resort to the services of ordinary 120-liter mortars, thank you, thank you, mr. volodymyr from

the mountain, thank you for an extremely interesting analysis on an important simple topic volodymyr molchanov in kherson political scientist spoke about the situation in general in the south of our country in particular and in the temporarily occupied territories 34 very different numbers in estimates, at least approximately the number of people living in ukraine today, we are talking about millions, such a great inaccuracy in the estimation of it is related to the fact that demographers now, er, they objectively lack data on migration, this was discussed at a round table that happened the other day in kyiv , its main points are further in our story , the increasing mortality rate, and without that low birth rate, large migration processes, demographic challenges that ukraine has faced even more since the beginning of the full-scale war

, it is practically impossible to count how many people currently live in the country in a specific area of ​​the regions or in cities, there is no accurate information on how many people moved or were deported to russia , the institute of demography cites one more according to vague statistics , 5 million ukrainian migrants are registered in europe, while according to the data of the state border service, since the beginning of the war , 800 million have left through the western borders 000 people more than returned. i think that there is partly a possibility of double counting, that is, people, say, entered poland , registered, then came to germany , registered there, the poles did not remove them in time , but, according to the logic of things, this still does not explain such a huge difference, it is not an easy situation within the country, according to the ministry of social policy , there are 4,800,000 forcibly displaced persons registered in ukraine , more than a million of them have resettled again , the demographic situation is complicated by the increasing number of disabled people due to the war

pensioners of orphans and the reduction of jobs according to the world bank, 1.5 million jobs may be lost completely as a result of the war, and this all leads to a situation where , on the one hand, the level of income to the state budget decreases, the level of income of the solidarity pension system of social insurance decreases reproductive health and another demographic problem to which the state should now pay special attention , the specialized committee of the parliament on the health of the nation says that many women are capable to give birth left the country and it is not known whether they will return, and those who stayed have the best health conditions due to stressful situations in war conditions, it is becoming more difficult to give birth to a normal, healthy child. not only that , the number of them will decrease, we will have sick children, we will waste the sick women, sick men, we will spend

a lot of money from the budget of ukraine to treat and correct some situations according to preliminary estimates of the institute of demography and social research in ukraine now 28 to 34 million people live here. how will the demographic situation change after the war? first of all, everything will depend on when and under what conditions it will end . the institute predicts that by 2030 , no more than 32 million people will live in our country . thank you to the authors of this story. the topic is not trivial. the topic is extremely important and we understand that although it is not about the war, it is about the colossal consequences of the post-war period and our immediate future, and this story will directly affect the development of existence and the formats of life in our country.

we are now adding to our marathon oleksandr gladun, deputy director of the institute of demography and social research of the academy of sciences of ukraine. glory to ukraine , oleksandr. congratulations to you as a hero. good day. scientist, so how many people from those who left will return or vice versa, will this moment of outflow of people from ukraine last, when we talk about the population size, we should to decide on which territory we will determine the population of the entire territory, including the crimea, whether as of february 24 of last year or for the territory that is currently under control, regardless of this , there will be quite different numbers and estimates are very

different, they still very much depend on what indicators should be included in the calculation of, let's say, the migration movement of the population and the natural movement of the population, as for births and deaths, well, there are already data for last year from the ministry of justice, but of course they are incomplete and they are not compared with the data that they had for the past e-e for the 21st and earlier years . as for the migratory outflow of the population , well, the data also differ quite a bit between what the office of the high commissioner for refugees gives and what they give about crossing the border by our border guards, the data varies. about two times and this is a very large number. in addition, we cannot know exactly how many people are currently in the territory of russia, in what status

, again, the office of the united nations high commissioner for refugees gives approximately 2.9 million but this is a very large number and we don't know how the russians calculated it, so there is a large uncertainty regarding the number of people who will return or not, everything will depend on the duration of the war, on how many people will have housing here and whether it will be destroyed and will there be an opportunity to get a job after the war , so several scenarios are possible, the first is when, after all, some of the people who are currently in europe will return to ukraine, and the second scenario is when after they are

to lift the bans on what men will go to their wives abroad and it is also very difficult to compare these comparisons because a lot depends on the specific situation of the people surveyed, about a quarter plan to stay as they are now and more to return, and sometimes people cannot even determine their plans and they just say emotionally. so if they did as of today, what will happen in a year or two is unknown. oleksandr , the main thesis is because of the beginning of a full-scale war in russia, which caused forced luck of ukrainians to the russian federation, you are among the citizens abroad. in ukraine, there is a change in the ethnic composition of the nation. this is exactly what the institute of demography warns about. how is the ethnic composition of the nation changing ? taking into account the fact that ukrainians are leaving and who

is coming ? territories and all the atrocities they commit. no , it is impossible to say that there is a change in the ethnic composition , especially in the government-controlled territory, this is only if the population does not return and labor force will be needed in ukraine. then, yes, it will be necessary to carry out a migration policy regarding the attraction of the occupied territories . then russia is very actively pursuing the policy . well, what is called demographic capture, they have already captured the territories militarily, for example, they bring people from russia to mariupol. well, they are also somehow as an incentive , people are forcibly imported from russia, and in this way the social and ethnic composition of those territories that are now under the control of russia and

after liberation is changing - this will also be the case for ukraine the challenge is because these people will have to be deported , solve the issue with them somehow and return their people . i also want to add that if you look a little further after the end of the war, and before the war, there was a constant decrease in the population and the demographic situation was critical, the war just made it worse strong and greater attention is now paid to demography than in peacetime . the outflow of the population, then i say economic factors can prompt the fact that people from other countries will come here either legally or illegally to earn money, and from those countries where the standard

of living is lower than in ukraine, mr. oleksandr , i had a conversation literally a few years ago with a representative of the association of the country's labor migration and we talked about exactly the same thing , about the fact that a large number of ukrainians are looking for a better fate, go to work and take root in other countries, mainly to the west. and in ukraine, we can expect well, for the example of the representatives of the countries of central asia, there is now a war going on and we understand that, let's put it this way, the consequences of this process and the first causes are extremely tragic . literally, on saturday, with certain expert circles, we tried to analyze all the processes, and we understand that ukraine, of course, well, it is possible that it will not happen, but it can be used, so

to speak, by various circles of good people, yes so to speak well, as states that will be able to somewhat reduce the burden of migration migration history that falls on the european union, as far as we understand it, will be interested in the european union in the countries of the near asia, for example, we understand what hell is unfolding in syria and not only in syria people will also leave because ukraine will also need workers, but how can we assume that something will really change , so to speak, the image of our state and our people. well, i agree with you when we say about the return of our people from europe very

a lot depends on what policy western european countries will pursue, many countries are interested in ukrainians staying abroad and entering their labor market, and well, if residents of this country became permanent residents and then we lose this population, this peacetime policy was actively pursued by poland from the side of germany, the czech republic, thanks, well, in a certain way , certain laws were even adopted in slovakia that simplified the employment of ukrainians abroad, well, the opportunity to go to work then about citizenship was found how is it, but now such a situation can lead to the fact that these countries will agitate people to create conditions for ukrainians to stay then the question arises that with ukraine, first of all, we really have a large territory and almost all of the territory is suitable for sewing and conducting economic activities

, so we in any case , we will need labor force, and if the government does not develop a migration policy deliberately , then it will happen spontaneously, spontaneously , the economy and globalization will break all borders , and it is breaking them now, so it is not necessary to close will be successful therefore, it is necessary to develop certain approaches to migration policy right now. and it should also be based on the development of concepts for the economic revival of ukraine, the development of certain territories of communities, the determination of the need for labor force and thus the point -selective involvement of migrants, and certain conditions or qualifications may be proposed for those migrants or by age, let's say, as

other countries do it, and what are the specifics, because if people really leave ukraine and will not return , educated people will leave, well, significant a part from the higher world. people in whom our state has invested significant funds and people can come. that is, i do not want to resort to some vulgar primitive rasology, but there will be people who , for example, do not have a higher education there, have some kind of social problem background and so on. it will be, so to speak, to somewhat change certain processes for which, most likely, we are all not ready here, it is not a question, so to speak, of some ku-club of sklan methods , but a question simply of understanding and proposing some clear, understandable concept, if it everything had to happen, mr. oleksandr. how difficult is it to calculate such things, and i don't know what the burden on our scientific institutions could be, well, it is very

difficult to calculate now, i said that at the beginning of our broadcast that we practically do not have, well, normal demographic information, we do not have economic programs. that is, we cannot forecast migration processes, for example , if we do not know what the government's strategy will be in this matter. therefore, this is a complex issue . certain assumptions for certain territories for a certain period, but we ourselves are aware that these forecasts are how we imagine the processes at the moment in a month, two and a half years, all this can change and we will have to develop a new demographic forecast again, and he , for example, regarding the calculation that

it concerns the calculation of the calculation of certain processes, so to speak. well, i don't know. they will say that they want to come 50 or 100,000 kurds there or 100,000 citizens of syria, in which there is a war started by their dictator, and so on. and so on. accordingly, we can find out what, for example , it will be for our stability, whether any such calculations are correct at all. well, i want to say that we should take a more active position in this sense, not because the kurds will come or from some other country and how much do we want from this country and who do we want ? that is, our diplomatic institutions should work in this direction. maybe there are some special units that will deal with attracting people to ukraine. as for

the influence on ukraine, there is a very important thing here. not only the economic moment, but the socio-psychological moment, we seem to take it easy when our citizens go abroad, start living in other countries , get settled there, and so on, but when we try it on ourselves and when they supposedly come to us, we perceive everything with great caution, because here we need to take into account all these points. and this, first of all, it is necessary not only for the government and society, society to realize that if this will continue and, well, be prepared for the fact that the number of foreigners will increase in our country, calculate to in the end, social psychologists are needed, not only demography. perhaps if there are arrivals from less developed countries, their birth rate will be higher, and then if they remain in ukraine, the population

of ukraine will grow, but the ethnic composition in the social composition will be, well, a different country than it was 2-3 years ago us thank you mr. oleksandr oleksandr gladun, deputy director of the institute of demography and social research , national institute of ukraine, was in touch with us, we talked about things that are difficult to predict, but necessary to try because why are we now fighting for the future and to understand what this future will be and what ukrainians will be in the future , this is very important. this is a key story. it is extremely important to try to predict and accordingly protect ourselves from some negative moments . on the other hand, we understand that the world is so globalized and influenced so much predicted things for similar processes, so you can even not try, well, trying to construct our future like that well, we are not

stanislawe lemma, are we not ray bradbury but the academy of sciences of ukraine is a solid institution if they undertake relevant research. i think they will be able to present the appropriate mechanisms to the government in the verkhovna rada, how to react, what to think about so that later , as they say, it doesn’t fly away, you need to prepare already here, scientists, that’s why they are scientists to calculate certain scenarios that may come to us in a year, two or three, this is the government in our country. whoever and when and in what period of time represented it really listened to the opinion of the expert environment. thank you. and it's about time pass the word on the news we are glad now we will see anna eva melnyk on our screens yes anya we congratulate you on the word well we are waiting for a fresh portion of hot news tanya ukraine has returned another 100 of our