[000:00:00;00] and the ukrainian civilian airliner over tehran, responsibility or compensation for which, or even accurate information , the ukrainian side has not yet received from tehran this column emphasis my name is oleksiy fadeev today we focus on iran on its foreign policy and on its participation in russia's war against ukraine and we say we talk about it today, as usual, with guests in the studio. and this is for us first: ihor samovoloz, director of the center for middle eastern studies, and valery klochok , e.e., head of the center for public analytics tower, gentlemen, i congratulate you. well, i will say right away that our conversation is completely free, so if in the process you need to say something or comment , please don't wait for me, say stay, interrupt, and so on . this way, the conversation turns out to be lively and interesting for the audience

, so from august of last year, chess where they flew over ukraine. as far as i understand, on september 12 , 2022, near kupyansk , kharkiv oblast, the ukrainian armed forces still shot down the first uh, the first first path, it was called geranium-2, but when we looked at the markings we understood what it was and did not even need to look at the markings because the intelligence data on the supply of weapons by iran to russia came from the partners of ukraine long before this day and precisely after it appeared in the airspace of the general public eh hmm to the general public in ukraine, or rather to the general public in general, it became known in ukraine that shahedi iranian drones fly over us and most importantly they fall and kill people, including people. not to mention the infrastructure, and it was a little strange from

the point of view of our conventional viewers ukraine, where is iran? so, the first question i propose to start with is, in your opinion, whether this participation or support by the general of moscow in the large-scale war against ukraine was a surprise, well, obviously , it was not a surprise for me, because there are signals that the russians and iranians are starting an active cooperation began as early as december 21st, at that time, against the background of the discussion about the nuclear agreement, these endless negotiations with the americans, a series of consultations between the iranians and the russians took place, and already then one of

the key elements was sounded, and russia demanded from the states to exclude from the list of possible sanctions the entire entire range of economic relations between iran and russia, i.e., at that time , they had already been established, including, obviously , cooperation in the security sphere, and the second, yes , i.e., i think that they were preparing just at that moment, russia was experiencing a shortage of uavs and they actually wanted to make up for it with the help of irony. well, later, after the victory in the elections of ibrahim raisii and a finalization in general, in this book construction of ramskaya, it became clear that

this is more conservative and more like tough government whose coalition is the ruling group, it would be prone to such a confrontation with the west, more active confrontation and , accordingly, cooperation with moscow. of course, there is a ruling government called the vilets of facts. that is, it is a geometric regime and a theocratic regime, but it is the government of the righteous, and that is, when it is assumed that it is the priests who can lead the government because they are not the most righteous, but under the conditions of this, there were still republican elements , that is, there was competition within the framework of a certain doctrine , and

there were moderate and radical or radical conservative groups . belong to such conservative-radical groups that are close to the guard corps of the islamic revolution. and this is a huge corporation. that is, it is a state within a state with its own forces , its corporations, its funds, that is, they rule the country and now they will collapse for the first time and somewhere they got full access to decision-making yes and actually based on this the situation changed radically for iran they made a bet i will say they made a bet show how i support and the morning of russia is connected precisely with this change in the structure or structure of the government or how it is correct to say, valery, do you have any comments, you know, i think that the key key theses, key conclusions and

key p- the first, the first, but the steps were taken after the murder, which one today , in my 20th year, in the month of january, and kazam it makes me sad that he was a person who actively promoted cooperation between russia and iran . yes, and they actively promoted it. he didn’t just promote it, but he was a promoter of this interaction in syria. yes. and it was a signal for others . on the shield, they turned him into a factor there, a jahid, and everything else. and i think that this was the period when the paradigm changed once, when the iranians, well, the ruling regime went in the direction of such a tough confrontation , that is, in fact, from your words, or correct me

if i am wrong actually from your words i can to make such a very perhaps the crown, but i will take the conclusion that iran is not at war with ukraine specifically, iran is at war with the united states, yes, but it does not make it easier for us because of what you think, should iran share the responsibility for the war against ukraine, well after our victory, of course. well, for example, we say that belarus should definitely be attacked as a participant, but the country with whose weapon they attack us, or whether it will be some kind of responsibility, you should probably bring the countries to the group, because it is very, very the essential moment, we often say, we remember yes, today there was a struggle and in fact, in the last well, perhaps the month is somewhere and they mark it for themselves already more on the surface this very concept of who yes will be on the other side yes on the other side and confrontation and so on because here everything is analyzed and said very correctly, and the beginning of this whole story is probably taken from the very first agreement on

the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons in the morning, which then somehow disappeared during the trump era. well, it disappeared somewhere, this is a very interesting nuance, after which iran said, ok, we don’t need it at all. stubbornly does not want to return to this conversation, and it is absolutely obvious that the intentions of iran are to dominate some certain in a certain region, they are very old . understandings yes, it is possible there understands the dictatorial and vice versa svitlana and the smaller part here of course, the question of choice is absolutely obvious and this bipolarity is being formed, which is where this struggle from the second pole actually takes place, who will be there

the main and the mentioned tripartite agreement signed in beijing and early driver saudi arabia china it seems to me something and exactly in the current conditions that is precisely in the month of march why was it not done before yes although for example relations are quite difficult to judge the iranians they still although they are to me both countries are by and large terrorist countries . well, they are china. why did he start this story right now because he saw that he could try, i won't say dominate, try to manage this process. the camp is not the same as raising a hand to lead this camp right away, the question is i at the most, of course, yes, as for me, it is exactly the same, so the positions are early , well, personally, they are obvious to me for a long time here, he was looking for them at one time, he was inclined to lean towards russia, because russia actually dominated. yes, in this confrontation starting the war in 2014, they took an obvious step and showed that we will be against who, now who is against my

enemy, that is my friend, in fact , this is how it turns out: iran, which has long-standing difficult relations with europe and the united states, and china, which constantly other countries are also arguing about this, and you are talking about north korea and so on, that is, all these countries are currently in the stage of not approaching this camp. of course, iran has a direct and direct tangential relationship with the war against ukraine, which it denies. of course this must be proven in a court of law. i am not very happy with what has been happening here for many years. at least remember the downing of the malozian boeing, the first ukrainian court. well, it is not accidental that i am speaking lazian because there is a court decision on it, gazko, who said what are you you know, not with an arrow, but sweating, and then putin , and it seems to me. when you ask about responsibility, what else is the world not ready to place responsibility on a personal country that is not a citizen of these countries

, for example, the united states met me, and why did they see him as some kind of leader which carries this same iranian world to the entire middle east to the entire middle east , well, yes, the warnings are destroyed, it is like a warning that it is not necessary to do this. since at one time all nuclear facilities in iran were destroyed, after which they they froze its nuclear program. and now iran just did something to me. it was done a long time ago, and this is just a step. but how will it respond? i still don't see that the world is ready to hold it accountable . it must divide and divide . we have already touched on this topic with you several times, well if i would at least express the interests of iran and what are the interests of iran in the region maybe in the world let me start with the nuclear agreement

and the well-known nuclear water and action plan it is called the full action plan of 2015 according to this plenipotentiary house after signing who where there was a resolution of the un security council which was supported by all uh five permanent members and this resolution provided for the restoration of economic political cooperation with iran in exchange for no no no i will not tell you about the production of nuclear weapons and the gradual lifting of sanctions. by the way, according to the sanctions, at the end of this year , the restriction on the export of unmanned missiles seems to end, that is, as of now, the ira cannot. do, but he does and of course and this is one of the key tasks for him so that they do not prove what exactly it is and their drones, but let's return to this question what what happened then, what were the reasonings, obama's reasonings were simple, then it

is necessary to stop the e-e movement and early in the direction of nuclear bombs and try to convince iran that it is necessary to return to cooperation and get out of this closed circle of violence and expansion, instead, it turned out a little wrong, here it was mentioned that trump canceled this nuclear agreement, but the situation was such that most of the resources that the iranians received as a result of uh, this uh, you can say equipment, yes, they threw it at expansion, they have it , and that's when they broke through this corridor , the so-called shi'i corridor, from tigran all the way to the eastern coast of the mediterranean sea, that's when they strengthened strengthened as much as possible in syria, and it was the prime time of iranian expansionism, and they didn’t count on it, they didn’t

count on it when saudi arabia and israel and other countries and azerbaijan began to shout with a scream about what what are you doing you bet on yourself with a country that dreams of expansion and you didn't offer us any other options, then the americans tried to take, well enough, i would say , of course, a short step. that is, it's easy to take and cancel, the europeans didn't go for it, it's complicated relations between european states a lot, but when we talk about what it wants, and i can understand that iran, of course, wants security for its ruling class, first of all , they are there. they have been there since 1979, and the sanctions were different.

but the main thing is that they constantly feel a threat from israel, from the side of confederation and america in 1979. they consider all this through the prism of conspiracy theories, that is, it is very important for them to ensure the stability of the regime economically, including a-a and they see eh plus the second an equally important aspect is the spread of its influence in the middle east . you know this ancient confrontation between the shiites and the swineherds, to ask whether it is political or religious, whether it has both a religious and a political character, that is , it once had mostly a political and real political, religious, yes, and at one time the shiites, let's say, dominated, then the opposite happened, the main thing is that this confrontation has been going on since the beginning of this civil war between the two branches of islam and the iranians, they

have their satellites, they have their er, let's say proxies , and they actively support the six minorities in the countries of the middle east, where possible , they strengthen them so much that they already represent a serious threat or a serious force. well, what about the issue of the shiites in lebanon, where they eventually formed hezbollah. and this is also a state in the state, it is actually those who have their own militia, have their own armed forces to a large extent and influence the adoption of all political decisions that are possible, uh, in lebanon , the situation with syria is the same. they were also supported by the situation in the countries of the persian gulf, where there are more powerful ethnic minorities, well, yemen, of course, because in the 14th year it was a volume that made life difficult for almost all the countries of the persian gulf, and that is

, using these levers, iran is trying strengthen its influence and rearrange, relatively speaking, the political geography of the middle east on its own terms. and how did it affect these interests or the position of iran and the position of its entourage on the scheme of the region? and the position of china? relations were in the 16th year , no less. china said that they paid off , so it is important and so on, you know the relations . likewise, we saw the boats of the relations of saudi arabia and the coalition, conditionally says that they started with saudi arabia, which did not want to to invade the boat a-a and as a result, as a result, only the american base and the turkish base in the boats, it prevented this , that is, then they reconciled. that is, these are such

questions and it concerns yes. they have irreconcilables . there are political forces that are considered a-a opponents, and they are not suitable opponents , their leaders are executed from time to time , this causes protests, pogroms and the closing of the embassy. for a relatively long time without an embassy, ​​without relations, but these negotiations did not begin with a chinese institution, but with a chinese institution , the negotiations began earlier and started with oman and iraq, which became interested because iraq receives resources even early and from saudi arabia, respectively, and

they were interested in establishing relations and china has already included the last very important well, of course , make a company stroke yes the last stroke money that is, he promised one country money to another country money on the condition that you shake hands but agree, in politics, if the last touch may not be remembered by anyone, but the fact itself, it will go down in history conditionally . -e politicians i think that they fall into the easter of their own populism and simply believe that o china is a great conciliator and by the way, valeria , this position of china will lead or can potentially lead to the creation of this famous axis of evil, i don't know tehran , moscow, who else is beijing you know pyongyang ot

when they say china, the conciliator was here, lutsk, too, by the way, well, i have to reconcile, yes , uh, now the discussion is ongoing, including regarding the visit of europeans to china, that china is already measuring russia, ukraine, just like china is measuring audits and samples there. well, i i am also far from thinking that this is about peace. no, it is more likely not about peace, but rather about not putting your hand in. yes, as you said, and it seems to me that it is because of the darkness, it is more likely to try to manage this process in one's own interests , because it is very this parallel is interesting now the development of relations, well, i will say a reboot. yes, relations with europe against the background of the confrontation with the united states and the attempt to separate europe from the united states, the chinese pursue absolutely frank , obviously, most likely in the same way, and china began to spread its interests to the middle east in conditions of constant confrontation and, er , military disputes there actions and so on and the like, then china can get its dividends . therefore, now it is not about peace, but china, for me, it is not

about the dominance of the chinese and the distribution of the stabilization of the situation, no. at this stage, no redistribution, i’m far away, the new world, the new contour, and so on, it just seems to me that we all need to delve deeper into the problems of china’s economy in order to understand what it is doing. at this stage, because it seems to me that the stabilization of the situation is very important for china . that’s why. well, i can agree with him with the fact that china has now collected the cream of the crop by arranging this signing of the agreement. okay, but as far as i am concerned, it is not so important who did this work, who prepared this agreement, and in the end , the rest of it was implemented, here and here people they remember the world remembers that china well done china okay we are measuring his shirt this is not a lover i say no no you don't need to do this he is engaged in completely different things he is in no hurry to try on russia and ukraine for example he does not do it in principle in the same way he

is in no hurry to try on the peoples who are fighting for religious inferiority in the middle east, he is not interested in it, it seems to me that he has a different interest, another interest, to spread his economic expansion today. well, then the successor of the hand political political somewhere they are of course in china, so here it is not about the chinese peacemaker, because here it is about the fact that, well, china, along with this , concluded a very large agreement on the supply of oil to saudi arabia, which previously was very interesting for him, this cooperation, as well as with iran in we are interested, and there is already a signed agreement on the restoration of infrastructure, the construction of infrastructure in iran, that is, he will invest something there. and for him, well, in conditions when, for example, iran is limited by sanctions in terms of the export of light petroleum products, the children of europe, by the way the deal broke down there last summer when they tried. europe wanted to revise something against the background of the actual crisis that arose in europe. oil failed. of course, iran didn't succeed. well, there aren't

many opportunities left for the development of the sales market, and the chinese are very powerful today. why is china developing like this throughout history, right? sees the problems of europe that arose after it was actually put on a russian needle, let's recall at least with a populist statement, in fact, as it turned out, putin about the construction of a new gas gas exchange of the second branch through mongolia did not it turned out that way in the far east, so far it hasn’t worked out. i think so. china is waiting. china is waiting for misha to arrive with putin and they will sign a new agreement with them, yes, on favorable terms, but he understands that he is increasing, for example, up to two hundred billion there, how do they earn supplies gas to china well, for example, compared to europe, it is a plus-minus equally for china, it is also a challenge, it does not need it at all, that is why it is equally developing its relations everywhere, and it is not about peace today, it is about china , about the intentions of china, after all become stronger

china's debt to date according to various estimates from 50 to 100 trillion dollars, that is, from actually three to five of the country's gdp , this is a cosmic figure in china, there are a lot of problems with the whole we know this well, they are very needed today, well, about it has already been said a million times, but we will repeat it, we will remind you of resources , resources, resources, and support for irynka's sales, if he takes a resource in the middle east, he is interested in europe, that 's why it's right here. that's what arises and the question. and who is iran now? well, listening to the comments of many experts regarding the very problem of relations. and early in syria, how did iran act with the russians and the usa in general, did they have interests there? and why does the russian contingent remain in syria until now, and so on ? what did they say? well, this war is profitable there, because somewhere there is control over practically non-resources, which have a chance to exercise and

have a chance today on the territory of syria, the same story with iran, well, unfortunately for me personally, as well as for many who the middle east and china are here with, first of all, about naftovigas uhu so far, so what does this mean for ukraine, that in the near future we will have chess on our heads. is it possible that there are some more modern weapons, more advanced weapons from iran for russia, well, the issue of more advanced weapons, that is, ballistic missiles, yes, about which many are talking, many are saying, well, it is still hanging in the air, yes, that is, in principle , negotiations were held about it, and this process shows a lot of information, but there is no final decision, no final there is no solution, rather. precisely because, well, it will be very much like this, you know, a sudden violation

of the prohibitions of the resolution. and it is simply impossible to hide it, and, besides everything else. after all, the delivery of these ballistic missiles is another step, and skalati and the russians are afraid that then , let's say, the west will hand us more such missiles, actually, with such a range of action , and we are realistic missiles in response, namely wounds, are not afraid to supply weapons. and the general himself well, iran is the ira, iran is ready to supply if only they buy, that is, they are here, that is, israel, which is close by and a serious military force. well, the point is that, in principle , the resources that the soviet union also has are enough for them not to strike in principle. and i i don’t know how powerful they are, they can fight back for a long time, let’s say, against

the american-israeli coalition, and in the event that a powerful blow or several shock waves is delivered, there are big questions here, but they are not trained for such a large-scale conflict. after all, they are trying to keep the situation in a, let’s say, controlled format. and here is an illustration for this, here is the infamous rocket strike of the 20th year after the murder of insulimena, when the iranians announced that we were striking, they warned that this strike would be one and that’s it. we let's put a full stop, that is, they are trying to control the situation and not go along the path of some kind of relentless escalation

. because today we are recording the delivery of aircraft that are entrusted to the russians, the question of what they are preparing for confrontation with israel, a true statement, well, let's say it not directly, but indirectly by hinting that iran should wait for a strike after the arrival of volodastin , on the eve of the resignation of the minister of defense of israel, this meeting took place and it is indicated that israel will in any case launch a military operation against iran, it is only a matter of time . especially if you are talking about israel itself , the situation is extremely difficult for the current prime minister, who will be in office for the third time, and for he has already caused protests, well, for the sake of preserving power. and no, he just loved him very much, and let’s pay attention to his third coming to power, and there is a story where the country is actually run by his wife. let’s say, friends, you said it. no, it’s not just me saying it.

says that everyone knows this well. so, for him, as a way out of the situation in order to preserve power, raising his own image rating, and so on, the beginning of a war against the enemy's wound. with russia, well, again, no one has seen nuclear weapons in israel, and in reality no one has seen an enriched russian wound , but everyone says that it is there, that is, in 12 days or until the end of the year and early there will be nuclear weapons , there is not much time left so already e is purified by 84%. and for weapons, journalists are ahead, yes, yes, this is a very interesting nuance, friends, you know god . yes, we do not yet, we do not know official information, for example, there is none. from and it is too early that they are supplying shaheds to russia, they say no, we do not understand this. yes, it is possible we supply technologies, we only see that iranian planes are reported in moscow every week, this is also a fact . for example, we know that russia has supplied enriched iran, we do not know about it. the journalists came out. everyone

is talking about it, but no one has seen it. israel says that we do not have nuclear weapons, but if necessary, we will use them, he already said 30 years ago, i personally apologize that iran is actively preparing at least for defense and that it is now building up its military potential . well, you know, this is probably the point of bifurcation, again, journalists write, well, unfortunately, we are still gossiping, sorry, friends, but the information that is literally yesterday's message to axius about some new nuclear program of the united states with iran , which no one has seen, but about which everyone knows if you take into account the fact that in the 20th year they did not agree with the united states of america and iran and wanted to restore this nuclear program , they really wanted the desire, i do not rule out that such an attempt is still open today remains and why iran then who says that everything is okay yes, we are ready to work well