[000:00:00;00] that's why there are such risks at the moment, so far they are. at the beginning of next week very meaningful thank you very much taras vysotsky first deputy minister of agrarian policy and food of ukraine told us everything at least i have become smarter now after talking with mr. taras than i was before that conversation thank you very much sincere once again now we are jumping from agriculture to major international politics, or rather the future major international politics, because the address umland is an analyst at the stockholm center for eastern

european studies who worked in ukraine for a very long time. i don't even know, maybe several dozen years , well at least exactly 10 worked in various positions, was a teacher, was a professor at the kyiv-mohyla academy, he himself is a german, but he works in sweden at the stockholm center, and he worked in ukraine, so i will address him in ukrainian, and if he wants to speak in ukrainian, he can say in ukrainian, but i want in russian, it does not depend on that. they tell me here that he knows ukrainian. i have known mr. andres for a long time and i know that he knows ukrainian, but maybe it will be easier for him , i can't. already democracy i can't impose i can offer but how it will turn out depends on you address yes good health good health thank you i 'll try ukrainian okay we talked about it and will talk about it 150 times because the situation

is changing but this what really many of me it seems interesting whether the europeans have a gradual understanding of what to do with russia. because when they said that the balkans are the sick child of europe, now russia, if you take what europe is, then russia is the sick child of eurasia. okay, let's put it this way, and it's obvious that russia needs someone's treatment , the russians themselves say that we can get by with pills, the ukrainians say only surgery , only cutting off, there is a little something extra , what do europeans think in general, european intellectual opinion, she understands that this is a challenge that needs to be done, what needs to be done, and if it is done, what exactly panedres well, i would

said, first of all, that there is no single vision of this in western society and the intellectual environment there are simply different approaches, there are no longer such openly pro -russian putin well, what kind of speakers are there, but they no longer play a significant role. but there are different approaches to what to do until the regime changes in russia and putin leaves, and how it looks to me now , after all, people think more about ukraine or rather about russia, and here there is an if so and so approach now

yes, ukraine has this war, but what will this victory look like? there are different visions there, probably the most annoying and pressing topic right now is crimea, what will happen to crimea, should ukraine conquer crimea ? to support ukraine so that it, uh, well, liberates the part that uh, well, has been occupied since the 22nd year, and the sixth year, like crimea - this is probably the most painful topic at the moment . from me and from general zuluzhny, who knows us all better

how will ukraine be able to cope with the return of crimea, but here is an important point: are there, let's say, europeans in the intellectual field , and such are the opinions that russian liberals say that if there is no putin, everything will be fine. and ukrainian liberals say, well, everything will be fine , in 5 or 10 years there will be a new one putin, and in 10-15 years the war will start again, that is, this trauma that actually took place in the 90s , when everyone believed, and i will tell you frankly, i believed, and something seems to me that you also believed , and the ukrainian dissidents who were sitting all believed the prisons were told that there will be no more like this, russia is different, russia has changed, it turns out that russia has not changed and if they say again well, let's wait, putin will leave, ukraine will win and then russia will be beautiful as it is

прекрасное россия будущего well, they gave us another war, or is it the euro this is the understanding that it is necessary to treat there seriously, it can be done surgically and not only with pills, well, the problem, to be honest , is that here something can be done surgically, in the west, as it was in germany after the second world war, you just can’t there to conquer the race and well, we can only wait to see what will happen there and then probably support in some way one development and not the other eh yes here i think there is this discussion is often there too and there it is about the schedule of russia, whether there can be a disintegration and whether it is, well, what if

the consequences will be well, it seems to me that people understand that it is not only about putin, what is there , that this is a more structural problem, and that , well, there is a lot of support for this policy of putin, and that the elite is behind it, and, well, at least, really, yes yes, you are right here, rather, of course they are talking about putin and if there was another leader, it would probably be possible to come to an agreement . well, in the end, there are no such instruments of direct influence, that is, it is not possible to simply change the foreign regime , as it was in germany, as i already said but what i see is that even the sanctions policy pursued by the united states, well, civilized

countries, europeans, japanese, canadians, it is not working quickly, but if it remains , it will be a great tool of western influence , obviously every year it will hurt you. i think that russia will not die of hunger, they have a large amount of food, but it will die without technology, it will die without roads , without factories, without factories, without large cities that want to use modern services and so on and so on, that is, i see that it is enough, that is, if otherwise let's say if there are votes for maintaining sanctions in europe, then russia will behave more predictably, if there will be business and business as usual, then russia will be as we

remember the 90s, then in zero, and then in ten, and then there will be another attack on someone neighboring country, what do you say, mr. address? well, i agree, and i'm also afraid that these sanctions may be removed quickly and try to make something new there . then peregruzka was written there, that is, i am also afraid that there may be such a development, but i still think that the sanctions are connected rather not with personal personalities with putin, but with the burning of russia's foreign policy, that is, they will only be removed for you, and

if there are, there will be another foreign policy well in first of all, it is about ukraine, so it is difficult to say something concrete now, because there is an intense discussion and people there are thinking about how to support the russian opposition , what will happen if russia falls apart, what to do with ukraine, joining nato, the european union, and so on . and er well, there are very different er, well, let's say in germany itself, even in one internal party discussions, they er, they are ambiguous. that is, there are different positions in er, not only between parties, but the same er you are in the parties themselves, it is difficult to say anything about that yet that there is an intense discussion and somehow a vision of the only thing that is not there, because well, there are no tools of direct influence on

russia, there are only these sanctions, there is the supply of weapons, but it is not possible to do something there in moscow , i just had a conversation today with an american expert and i would like to discuss this with you i do not know how far your center of research is all of eastern europe and it is far eastern not europe are there talks about what well many are afraid of a possible attack by the people's republic of china to taiwan and around it. well, if you look at it from a global point of view, it may be much closer to the third world war than the situation when russia attacked

ukraine because the americans are there, nuclear weapons are nearby, russia is there, japan, south north korea, that is, the node there is very complicated world trade this is at least 50% of the 70 % of world trade that passes through the south china sea and so on and so on and so on . what could you say about how dangerous it is, how much the chinese communist party wants to attack and how much america and the western world will fight against this because it is for a. aid to ukraine ultimately depends on this. well, i can't say so generally about it because i'm an expert on china. the fact that many disabled people associate this war of russia against ukraine with the prospects of china's war against taiwan

, that is, many people say that if ukraine does not win, then the possibility that china will go to taiwan increases. and if ukraine is successful , then it will be good for security of thailand that is, this is such a well, this will simply be an example of the fact that, well, a small or a weaker country can , well, the west with western support, too, well, win a war against a great power, well , the military of a great power, let's say yes, well , there is such a connection, and it seems to me more and more, and this is me i think it is also good for ukraine in some ways, because people already understand that this war has

such a global meaning . but on the other hand, of course, this problem is from taiwan, it is a little different, china is another country, and there er, with taiwan of course yes that many countries, including ukraine, they recognize that there is only one china and that well, in what sense do you belong to china? that is, it is not such a clear-cut situation and point of view, that is, it is still unclear how all this can affect and uh, is it really possible to compare these uh, these two conflicts uh, well, in the sense that there is already a war in ukraine, and

there is no war there in taiwan, probably and there won’t be uh, of course there is a meaning in for some reason it is uh even bigger because china is bigger and as you said correctly there are uh hmm several other big uh states will also have a direct participation in this. that is, for example, japan will also be there then. well , it just has islands that are near the ram and this will also apply to japan , but it is being discussed and sometimes it is bad for ukraine because people say that well, we need to talk less about ukraine and russia and more about china and taiwan. and sometimes people connected all these problems, and then it would be useful for ukraine, and then i would support

such a policy of supporting ukraine in the west because then it will also be a uh well signal for china, that it is not possible to simply resolve such conflicts with military instruments. thank you very much . thank you very much. we will talk with vitaly today, too , i alone will talk with viktor chobanu , a political analyst from moldova, i will switch to russian if i see him, i will definitely switch, i will not have a way out yet, i can

i will move on. hello viktor. thank you for finding time for us on saturday evening. it's quite nice because people rest on saturday. and you see , you agreed to do a little work for you . always please, thank you. there is something that often has the name pridnestrovie and it is understandable. how is it more or less understandable ? how did it start? i was there in 1992, just during the military operations. i am more or less here. it is not clear, this is the second part, which is called gagauzia, which is part of moldova. it’s clear. but there we always say the fronde. i have never heard that there was any loyalty to the central government of the tishinev government. something is happening there all the time. why is gagauze such a problem

and what do they want? uh, in general, what kind of idea do they have, they are just us , we are russian, but they are definitely not russian, we are soviet . in these elections what can be expected is unclear traditional pro-russian region with traditionally pro-russian pro-russian messages e-e region that is constantly in some opposition to the central government that is in silence e.e. even in the current elections e-e bashana so to speak heads e-e gagauzskoe of the autonomies that will be held in our country tomorrow out of the eight candidates of the seven, they pedal

exclusively about russian rhetoric on the one hand, that is, it is necessary to be friends with russia , russia is cheap gas, one of the candidates there is actually his representative this is our fugitive oligarch shor, he proposed there specially for gagauzia, the price is 2.5 times the current price, and there are a lot of such absolutely populist ones, declared by the candidates because, even if you quantitatively estimate the number of projects i speak all the time, including in gagauzia on television, i say, let's count them, or name me the russian projects that were implemented in gagauzia, they are silent, there are no such ones , yes, from the other side, here, let's look at the american ones

european union projects, including romania and for them, romania is the same horror as uh, in general, and nato, you know, therefore, all the time, on the one hand, you need to be friends with the russians , on the other hand, you need to be afraid of the romanians , who are about to cross the border. but they will no longer go to kishinev, but immediately to comrade, eh, eh, eh, in approximately this eh style , the current election campaign for me is also the same question that i constantly ask in gagauzia about the idea, eh, it’s still the same it would be logical for the turkic people to fulfill it there are some strategic ways to establish relations with turkey, especially since turkey is a broken economy that could carry out

certain projects, but could support gagauzia much more widely, but here an uncomfortable question arises: turkey is a member of nato, we don't like it. only russians, and uh, it became literally public the other day, uh , public opinion polls that seem to be connected to the company in gaguzy, so 70 percent of the respondents, uh, answered that they speak russian or russian and 8-9 percent of gagauz, that is, more than pure gibberish, i don’t really speak romanian, but in general, within one percent of them, they speak eh, and romanian is a little bit more, but in general, this is such a eh, it’s absolutely

tongue-in-cheek, that is, they feel it consider themselves russian-speaking and in fact are russian-speaking. this is also the case in moldova . i think many political observers are mistaken when they say that we have ethnic conflicts, we do not have ethnic conflicts, we have a linguistic divide. the russian-speaking and romanian-speaking population is here, here, around the language, the main battles are taking place, those who do not speak romanian, of course, first come advice on what we should call the language romanian or moldavian , and so on and so on.

and some of the candidates who are most likely to go to the second round are supported by the chisinau mass socialists and he is generally putin's putin. he speaks breathlessly. he admires him and says that this is the king and he always wants such a question as a cargo , but the autonomy that gagauzia received in 1994 is a purely democratic norm and it is thanks to the fact that moldova is still in the zone of influence of europe if it is presented it would be nice to see that this is what often speculates that she is in the flesh, well , the most demological candidates there are when they voice their slogans, they

want to secede. speaking of territory of course there is a certain amount of cargo like in ukraine, but they don't live compactly , they don't have the status of autonomy, so they want to join in some way beautiful , i'm telling you in this case, you understand that in russia you would, uh, maybe you would preserve the name of autonomy , but you would have no more powers, including uh, according to our legislation, for external economic activity, for the own elections of the head, which is called the head of the uh- er , er, in the best case, you would have been appointed

some region, with some region, and they would call it the deputy head of the region, or something like that, see. and this is a very important question. it seems to me that there is little in ukraine about it. well, they know. but the gagauz passports are moldovan, so that’s why that because they tell me that eastern moldova is transnistria, they all received moldovan passports because it is possible to travel to europe easily and have a wonderful life. a passport and they travel with euros because we have a visa-free regime. and what are russians in transnistria? what about moldovan passports? i want to tell you that out of 351,000 people in transnistria, 341,000 have moldovan

passports, and that's it. absolutely er such a test regime when for the first time in the spring there were first provocations in transnistria when the neponya towers exploded there. well, it’s understandable, it ’s a dirty clean style as always queued up at the administrative border with moldova , and everything broke. - that's all so to say, and the advantages that this gives are our status

as an unassociated member of the european union . gagauzie yes that's what that's about and that's the question because , er, i spoke on this television literally yesterday, and i'm talking about what the elections are all about, these elections should be about local self-government, about the relationship of autonomy with the center, with tishynev, but instead of that, it's running this is pseudo-geopolitics

, and why? because , er, this is the current political set. and full of horns is already a signal такой свой it's foreign and there is no longer any need to discuss the real problems of the real agenda of the industry itself, that is, how to make even more projects come to gagauzia , including european ones, including american ones , including romanian ones, that's what happens because chisinau is often, as it were, the first let's say some hospitals, or even some er projects, this kind of humanitarian aid is provided precisely in ghuzi, er, this is a substantive conversation on the topic of how to do so in order to export, increase, so say production er, again, to attract turkish capital

er, to create joint enterprises on this topic, i hear almost no meaningful discussions , instead, we have the same horror stories that, by the way, er, in order to exit er, for the sake of justice and say that they are on the way to chisinau, including because our socialists or shorovtsy are not far away from this, they promise, uh, i already said that there are special prices for gas and electricity, uh, special export quotas in russia and so on and so on it is clear that the question arises every time that the export is definitely either through ukraine or in such a roundabout way that the moldovan production becomes simply not competitive in russia, but

to discuss this topic in general then uh, of course, as i already uh said, it’s easier to use the territory. that’s precisely the primitive way . unfortunately, there is a sufficient amount of uh. let’s say that zombified here, we can’t bypass this topic. the population, uh, is still gagauzia. they are still watching russian television is quiet, which means that all over the territory, six russian channels have already been banned. it’s just that we have news and i apologize. she’s from the news. i can’t talk about gagauz anymore. it’s interesting. thank you very much . viktor chubanov, a political analyst from moldova , was in touch with us and you will be in touch without me iryna koval with the news