[000:00:00;00] epoch, that is, the defense system of kyiv is already at the level of the capitals of the world capitals, which can hypothetically respond to a missile attack , later on, the kiev air defense system is already very possible. with daggers, or let's say we scan, although most likely there is at least one battery in the area of ​​​​the patriot in the area of ​​​​kiev, the fact is that 3 were definitely handed over to us against police missiles, so i think that we will cope with at least this threat. well let's take a look, but it's definitely not possible to interfere with security measures in the event of an air strike, mr. pavla, and see if i can ask you about the future somehow, since mr. roman has already said that the deployment

of a possible counter-offensive or offensive is beginning. i would say that the fate of crimea in the military sense is how do you see it in the naval sense in the sense that many say let 's militarize crimea? that is, it will mean that not only the russians there will lose their sevastopol base, the so-called but and the ukrainians will somehow have to have troops there somewhere in the crimea. and then the question arises. what are the turkish forces there and they are quite serious? well, let's not take romania and bulgaria, i don't think they have such deployed serious naval forces, what do you think about crimea is not a military zone, well, we are dividing it by the skin of an unkilled bear. now, to be honest, but we really need to look a little ahead if russia is defeated in

the russian, in the ukrainian war, and i am sure of this. black sea of ​​the black sea basin, we need to think for europe, for the mediterranean basin, the black sea is such an appendix, and if the e-e in the black sea disappear, will they fly to mars or will all russian ships be sunk in the sevastopol bay, something similar to the crimean results of the crimean war will happen from this, when russia will be forbidden to have an e the naval forces and the armed forces in general in the black sea . no one poses such a threat to the region anymore. actually, then you can think about the demilitarization of the black sea

basin. turkey as a member according to the north atlantic alliance, it is not based in the black sea, its fleet is based in the straits and in the mediterranean water area. they only enter the black sea. it holds the key to this basin and then well, it is quite possible to declare the black sea region as such a demilitarized zone. it would be beneficial everyone, but understand correctly what to announce to russia that its ban on the maintenance of the fleet and military formations in the black sea region is one thing, but what agreements can be signed with russia, well, everyone knows that you can sign any, she will violate them sooner or later it will have communication routes with the black sea in addition to the black sea straits and from the caspian sea and other options for the delivery of certain m. well, not only

ships, ships, actually, this is not the main thing for the black sea region, aviation is more important and russian power can return again into the black sea, and then it will turn out that again this fox with this red face got into the henhouse, i think that such an option is not suitable there, if the militarization of the black sea is to be carried out, then with this, well, it is quite conditional with the possibility of quickly building up forces for liquidation of this russian monster finally, sir, we have a novel for literally half a minute, but i can’t help but ask you, when you say that the movement on the front has begun, it

means that it has begun and now finish it, that is, the generals have some goal. i don’t ask what the goal is, but it’s not does not mean that it will stop, let's say, in a week, this movement on the front will stop, or we cannot rule out any development of events no, it will definitely not end, it will develop into our offensive now , a movement has begun eh on the front itself scouts have begun to advance to the operational depth eh carrying out combat orders according to the fighter received, they began to carry out operations related to the expansion of the battle, that is, we already see and hear it, even from the russians, we are moving to the first line of defense, sometimes we reach the second, and we open fire points, that is, the preparation of the movement has begun along the entire front line well, the destruction

of fuel receivers in the occupied territory in the territory of russia is a very important fuel - it is the blood of any army, there is no fuel, the army is drying up and it can be done very easily take, but this lag in time is about a month after they began to er-e knock out until the army sets up new logistical chains of fuel supply; later, after the first strike on the fuel receiver in sevastopol, it can be considered to be about a month , during this time, our offensive actions will develop and one more clarification. is it a bandage or is it related to mr. prigozhin's statement that wagner can get out of the bahamut shines for a week, maybe if he tries to save kostyak, er, prigozhin's opg and his

reputation, er, the point is that at the beginning offensive actions especially if there will be a decision to cut off the bakhmut solidarity group, because opg wagner is located in it, they will have to run there, and one thing they will lose, let's allow opg , the other thing is to lose the reputation of such a triputation, our very big money is worth it, and then no one will buy, because he is now trying to withdraw his own opg until there is no movement, there is no front, if our offensive begins in the area, we will allow bakhmut, but not bakhmut himself, slightly western konstantinovka konstantinovka from konstantinovka to gorlovka and the eastern severskoe in the direction of the popasnoy, he understands this very well and calculates it, so he is trying to take it out once again to save his reputation , mr. pavlo, but tell me, please. the rule voices their previous plans, as is known , to what extent can such a hunt for zelensky and other ukrainian leaders be

part of a new tactic during the war, it can be called part of a new tactic, in fact this er tactics have been going on for a whole year, and as far as i know, the security service of ukraine officially announced the elimination of the targets of a number of attempted er terrorist attacks, as the russians call our representatives of the highest military and political leadership. the special services are actively liquidating the russian agent network of exiled cossacks, well, a year ago , sabotage and intelligence groups of the operational and even tactical level of military intelligence were born all over ukraine, and

operational intelligence now has such a reason there is no enemy and it is quite difficult to plan this kind of operation, but you have to be ready for any er, i won’t say. these are provocations , sabotage, terrorist acts with the aim of destabilizing the management of the troops , management, er, state management. thank you, mr. pavlo , mr. pavlo lakichuk, head of security programs of the global strategy center, 21 , a retired military sailor, and mr. roman svitan , a military expert, a colonel of the armed forces reserve, a military pilot, a designer. thank you and we are into legal affairs. yes, we have oleg gavrish, a member of the working group for the creation of an international tribunal regarding russia's aggression against

ukraine. if it exists, we would see it and it would be accepted. well, let's start with the topic of realistic punishment, you understand, because no one can speak about the conditions of forming a tribunal explain how war criminals can really be punished because she is already in the presence of viktor yanukovych's trial in absentia. well, he is sitting in moscow because of his friends, and he is absolutely not interested in these sentences. he even mocks he appears over the court there on skype , pronounces about certain english speeches, there are two things to watch, the first, uh, this is actually uh, a thing that will be canceled uh, well, uh, what can it be

? also, i apologize also, after we create it, they will be sent to the verdict regarding putin and his entourage. that is, there are somewhere around 10-15 people who are currently accepted in russia. well , maybe there are 20-25, well, and they will be sentenced. will consist in the fact that most countries of the world will not accept them will be able to drive into them and they will be exiled, this means that somewhere there is a certain number of people who will separate themselves from putin and his entourage, but there is a problem

with judging them, please tell me mr. oleg but here i somehow do not understand this hybrid tribunal for putin, i never understood kyiv will support the format of the hybrid tribune which is promoting the west, what is a hybrid tribunal eh. as far as i understand, which is not so supportive so what is the drama here that the hybrid terminal traveled that it will be some kind of court that will judge putin, it's a complete case of aggression, in that he seems to be the ukrainian side that will make the decision. that is, it should not be

, it's not some kind of international terminal. it's a problem because he won't be able to uh, we won't be able to uh, make a decision on behalf of ukraine , it's the first thing, and the second thing is to remove him with problems and instead of oleg, we see putin, well, it's logical because the guys are the ones who should be in front of this tribunal in my opinion oleg havrysh well, i don't know how he thinks that, to what extent it is possible to think that it is justice do you understand because you say it, what is it morally, i understand what the drama is about, why is kyiv against or really against kyiv against the hybrid tribunal as far as i understand now, the president was received there in gas and

they agreed that gas is also some part of this you i can’t to understand where is here where is the conflict here, is ukraine really against a hybrid, what is a hybrid tribunal, what i understand is that the idea is that it is under ukrainian law , but with foreign judges. well, we are not lawyers , we must understand this for sure. it's all me, just like you and i said in some 97th year, where would anyone put that milosevic, and it turned out that what they said so about? the anxiety is really how they differ from the non-hybrid, listen of course terminal is something that we create under two conditions or uh, the un

votes to uh, it is the un general assembly that votes to create a tribunal that will be the essence of putin and his entourage for a crime of aggression and it will be a vote that actually decided that is it won't do it so that the hotelier will do it well, write down a contract with ukraine that uh, this is exactly what needs to be created, this is the first, second, uh , option - this is actually uh, it can be such that all the countries that uh, now take part in the creation terminal, they will come to an agreement and write down some general agreement and a tebunal is created for us. this is what president zelenskyy means. when they talk about

a full-fledged alarm, how does it differ from a hybrid ? yes, i understood that we have a connection. let's do it yuriy gorodnichenko, we have one now the profession of the department of economics of the university of the philippines bernky advisor to the chairman of the national bank of ukraine congratulations to mr. yury good health , mr. yury, it is nice to see you well, let's start with the american circumstances, probably for the tenth time in my existence as a journalist i read such a phrase that the united states may declare a debt default for the first time in history . that is, it was a few years ago, they could for the first time from the other side. as far as i understand, it is written somewhere that we are the founding fathers, or not jefferson, that there can be no default in

the united states, so who can we believe, fathers to the founders or to today's e-e financiers who, as it were, distribute this version p. yuri, you have a word, please, well, regarding the founders , one of the founders really said that it is very important that the united states, the government of the united states, have a good credit history, and because of this , it is important that all obligations which the government of the united states undertakes to fulfill these obligations, and indeed it has been there for 200 or how many 230 years, in the states they have never owned a fold, and i think it is very unlikely that we will have one. well, not in us in the states in the united states will default in the near future, mr. yury, father, ukrainians should be afraid that the national bank is preparing to release

the hryvnia exchange rate, then it will immediately jump somewhere, is there any possibility that it will not jump anywhere, but be more or less as stable as it was in the last year, although undoubtedly we understand that ours is far from unstable, but it was, and still, we could roughly imagine where it jumps and by how much. what kind of inflation will we have? excuse me, the exchange rate regime, well, this is probably a question for the head of the nbu, but i can say for myself that one indicator that we have is so useful is it parallel or there? it is very close to the official volume, even if the hryvnias are released now, i don’t think there will be any big fluctuations, the national

bank has enough reserves to support the exchange rate, by and large , more than enough, more than for great answer, now about russia, nowhere how realistic is it that there are optimists who say that russia is about to run out of all its money reserves? and this is an optimist, optimists say that there is no change in money in russia and therefore do not expect a quick end to the war, it is realistic how much can be enough in the current state of affairs if you take that state of affairs today, at the beginning of may 23rd, how much money will be enough in russia

, or will they still have money in a year to continue the war? at the beginning of the year, what would you say to yuri, please? well, i will say that there are indeed problems with financing in russia, that these problems are accumulating, and i often compare russia with the soviet union . the soviet union also had very large reserves of gold and other resources and money. at some point, they ran out. we had to wait a little. let's just say that the money ran out, and the same is true in russia. there is a big hole in the budget. oil prices are not at all high now. that is, what they had in the past . year when oil prices they scaled the scale, they were huge, you can say on the profits from er oil revenues, now this won't be er war - it's an extremely expensive thing that requires a lot of

resources, i.e. time goes very, very fast and i just want to remind that er we well, we have to wait for them to spend the last ruble or dollar of their reserves, yes, the crisis starts much earlier, that is, if people know or think that the money will run out soon , the crisis will start not when the last reserves run out, but much earlier, that's why here it is uncertain, of course there is, but the difference is that they will run out of resources, that is, waiting for money to run out is more dangerous than actually running out of money , right, the problem of these financial crises is important . that is, this is how it works, what is involved in carrying

it, since there are fundamentally resources or money, it can be said that game theory, if i think that someone else thinks that the money is running out, then i start to move and withdraw money from of my bank accounts or something like that and in this way begins to destabilize the system long before the money in this system runs out. look, there are such persistent rumors that the transfer of the economy to the military in russia is on the way there to the military rails there something there something i see a centuries-old permanent mess in russia and it is hard for me to imagine that under putin it is possible to transport something somewhere on a military road there on a peaceful way back and forth it does not work anywhere as much as

when you sit behind your colleagues in america and look at moscow or russia, how plausible is it, and how plausible is the possibility that the russians will start working there in a month or two, factories that have never worked from factories, roads, railways, how a clock works , engineers all remembered their science at universities, started to invent something , skilled workers started to run and to grind something out there, it is possible, whose or how, what do you think from an academic point of view? well, here you can say the following question: how long does it take to adapt the economy to new conditions, that there is no

resources, is it not possible to import chips, and here the answer is very simple, that in the short term , it is almost impossible to switch to some other rails. well, look what is happening with the factories that used to assemble renault cars there, or some other ones, they are already you can say that they have been without work for a year, and how much longer it will be without work , i don't know, but i think that it will be a very, very long time regarding all kinds of technological things here, and the lags in the transition are even bigger because imagine what needs to be done, yes, it is necessary find these new ones of people who will be involved in this, that they will have some kind of laboratory or team, yes, we are talking about it. well, let's say five years, such and such somewhere on the horizon, that's why all these conversations that in the near future they will close all these problems, holes

well, people dream, but you can dream for a very long time, but nothing will change as far as sanctions are concerned. let's say so the sanctions don't work, nothing happens there, and the europeans and americans themselves say the sanctions work, are they working or are they not working or are they working in the long term or are they uh or are they just russians still living on old stocks shorter how effective is the sanction for the average russian citizen when he will feel that there are some problems in his homeland . well, i will say. there are two philosophies of how to do these sanctions for the first time. well, if we take some holiwiot plots there, the first

option of sanctions - that's what you can say to hang someone uh over the abyss there you hold this person with a lid and say that if you don't tell me something or do something there, then i will let go of this tie, you are his silent nature and that's the end of it , yes, this is such a philosophy what you immediately put your enemy on the shoulder blade and after that some good things happen there, this is the first option and the second option is sanctions - this is, again, if we take some hollywood analogy, you raise a person on some rope and there gradually you gradually lower this person into the abyss yes and i hope that at some point this person will come to his senses and say that it's ok, i'll understand there, i'll do something wrong, and i'll do something wrong there, re-educating, and i'll do some other things

. so, in the west, they chose the second option. to hang the rope like that and gradually gradually lower this abyss into russia , why did they do it, well, again, everyone here is afraid to provoke russia or something like that, but if we work in this second scenario, yes, then well, it is obvious that the sanctions work, yes, eh i believe when it comes down to us to the bottom, but there are some rapid movements like this, there are changes in behavior that may not happen for a long time. yes, that is, the sanctions are working. yes , russia is running out of resources, they do not have access to financial markets. they have a problem with payment in dollars and so on. they can't have access to microchips in other technologies, that's the same problem. but they are gradually accumulating, and we hope

that at some point, people in russia will come to their senses and change their behavior . for this we will have if we see that president putin does not understand the economy very well, and they are afraid to play him like that to explain reality. so to what extent will such people say that, the question is who is the center of decision-making in russia, where do they take place in russia? and here i want to return to the previous question. when will the average russian feel that e it is not yet clear when it will happen, but these processes are gradually accumulating. for example, if you look at every survey , are people looking for a second job? looking for a second job why in most cases it is a signal that there is not enough money for the main job yes, and this is such an indirect

indicator of poverty, that is, if you ask people are they satisfied with putin's economic policy? everyone will say well, of course they are satisfied, but if not directly to ask them what is going on at your place of work, or do you want the work to be done there, there is already such a movement that something is not very good there , the russian economy, of course, at some point ... someone should convey this opinion, this opinion to putin how to say something look, we are running out of money, people will be dissatisfied and so on. well, someone putin is still there, his successor, or someone else, well, he will look at the objective data and say yes, something needs to be changed, professor, and look at the academic ones

circles of the united states, and again we can expect them to advise undoubtedly political circles. that is, well, this is such a financial and political issue. and last time, in the 90s, the whole world helped the russian federation because yeltsin told us to give them money, they finally got rid of all of them, which means communists and now russia will be different in the 22nd year somehow everything goes back to the question of whether we can imagine a repeat of the 90s that america will say again after putin's defeat there in the event of ukraine's victory no , we are humanists we can't, let's give a couple of billions let's give 20 billion. let's give. i remember disposable syringes. it was back then . it was