[000:00:00;00] the question: last time in the 90s, the whole world helped the russian federation because yeltsin told us to give them money, they finally got rid of all these communists, and now russia will be different in the 22nd year somehow. everything is coming back. the question is, can we imagine a repeat of the 90s? x years that america will say again after putin's defeat there, in the event of ukraine's victory, no, we are humanists, we can't , well, let's give a couple of billions, let's add 20 billion. let's give it. i remember disposable syringes.

these are still let's not, we can't. how good are these sanctions that we just talked about? they can last as long as the world already understands that russia is dangerous in the long-term perspective, not just for 10 years, but this is a problem, it is a sick person of the world . well, i will tell you about whether it will be hold on, will there be any support for humanitarian russia , it will definitely be there, well, even if you look at which companies are working in russia, there are many pharmaceutical companies, they say that they are doing this for purely humanitarian reasons so that there was insulin, some other medicine for people in russia, yes, that is, there is something like that, syringes or something else, it can be how long sanctions can last, i will give such an example , there was once such an amendment of jackson's broom,

which limited well, let's say that the trade relations between the states and russia, and by the way, ukraine was also under this amendment of jackson vinnik, because once jews were not allowed to leave the soviet union. so, this amendment of vinnik jackson was removed already there too many years after he stayed there the soviet union, people could move freely to go to any countries. that's why these sanctions have a very, very high inertia in them. yes, these sanctions can last five, 10, or 20 years after the end of the war, it will be like this. er, how is it correct to say this? so, when there will be some negotiations, if you behave well, we will lift this sanction with them , you will still do something good there . so that people change their behavior and thirdly do you understand so that in

in russia, something needs to be fundamentally changed there. i think that the answer is yes and no . on the one hand, everyone thought that russia would never attack anyone there, that all these fears in poland, in the baltic countries, and so on, that all this is so some invented problems that russia is already such a civilized country, but now the attitude towards this has changed very much, that is, everyone understands that in russia there are , well, really problems. putin's war yes, what is there ? there are good russians. they are against putin they are just afraid or something like that, and when the real democrats come there, they will do something else, and here are the treaties, the russians will take power there and do something there, well, people are considering such scenarios, that is, they have not yet given up on

such an idea that something can happen there in russia to be democratic in the near future. and as for the ukrainian economy. how do you see it today and how can it be realistically rebuilt tomorrow and if tomorrow in principle comes quickly, let's say the post-war period, well , now, of course, the situation is very difficult gross the domestic product fell by more than 30% unemployment in us is 30% 9 million people outside of ukraine we have high inflation well, of course it is a very difficult situation but uh for example if you compare the inflation in, for example, the eurozone with the inflation we have in them we had 10 there, well, 20, now 25, but in principle, this is not such a big difference for a country that is waging such a really big war, uh

, that is, on the one hand, there are reasons to be pessimistic . but fundamentally i think that uh the economic and future of ukraine, it will be very strong, why i think so is because i am sure that it will be a member of the european union and the experience of other countries that joined the european union, poland and others, shows that this is a huge factor for economic growth, yes. that is, it is an investment common market uh and technologies uh, there will be a lot of positive things, secondly, now, uh , considering what is happening with russia, with china, yes, many uh, international corporations, they look at all this and think

so well. today russia exploded yes a china will be there tomorrow and our money, investments, our eyes of the production chain may be lost. yes, we need to look for some options so that we can have some suppliers for our production there . well, let's say that in friendly countries. a country for the european union well, if you think about where you want to produce something in china or in ukraine , ukraine has many advantages, for example geographically, and how long does it take to put a container on some truck and to bring from kyiv to berlin well, all other things being equal, there, let's say a day is 24 hours, if it is done with china, then at least a week . well, on average, somewhere around a month. and now the modern economy is such that many consumers

want such a situation when you are there you press a button and tomorrow morning something will be brought to you, whether it's a pillow or something. i wanted to buy it in ukraine. that 's where i have an advantage. then we have an educated workforce , it will be quite cheap. the nearest one i don't know is 5-10 years, yes, this is another reason why ukraine will be attractive for investments, that is i think that even if we do not take into account the large sums of money that will come to rebuild ukraine purely for economic reasons, why should ukraine have a strong economy, there are many such fundamental things that should help us. as you listed the fundamental ones as also important are the people , the quality of the management, and you said that the people are educated, yes , but the management needs to be found hundreds, or maybe even thousands of people, who these words that you just

uttered already understand that we have chains and here we can do it we can also do the other five tenths i'm just giving such a simple example of the automotive industry just what you mentioned in russia - in russia, so around ukraine and in turkey and in slovakia and in poland everywhere cars are produced in ukraine, western cars are not produced, well, it’s a pity in transcarpathia. the truth is that a long, long time ago in russia, there were a lot of factories and bmws, and it seems to me that mercedes is something else, and so on. this means that someone did not have enough rivets in ukraine, or they just wanted a bribe, that is this class management, a class of people who make decisions, it already exists in ukraine. there is a sufficient number

of such people. well, i wanted to say that all these investments, yes, they will not take place over there in an hour, a day, in a year, yes, we are talking about processes that will last there for 10 years, 20 years yes, and they can, for today and tomorrow, we do not have such managers who are ready to take over the production of cars there, somehow start from scratch there and say , let's build something beautiful here, or in zaporizhzhia or in some or other ukrainian city. but we also have to understand that this is like a tango . yes, there must be two people. who will dance here ? from some production of spare parts. but it is not necessary for us to assemble the latest bmw model in

ukraine tomorrow, yes, it would be desirable if it were yes, but if we look at it realistically, then we will start with something simpler and gradually and gradually we will - and develop these branches of ya by the way, i'm not sure that we necessarily need automobile manufacturing, maybe our future lies in something else, but i agree with you that it is necessary that our local talents, so to speak, also take an active part in this . okay, one more question from russia again. ukraine, but here we are constantly in this state, other questions somehow arise, what about russia? now, when we look at it now, you say that you are an example of the jackson broom amendment and so on and so on. then the question arises . what will russia look like in 10 years if we we say russia, we always understand

that russia is gas, oil and something else there, some metals , wood, agriculture, in a word, yes, agriculture, but if we take it and say ok , agriculture will probably remain, but minus gas, minus oil , maybe minus some metals, and then russia - this is already half of russia, if not a quarter of russia, or russia in general as a factor of the stability of its economy will remain in 10, well, conditionally in 10 years in the personal achievable future, how will it survive, which is used to always eh in this way, there is no way to survive like this is a stump of honey - this is at school, i remember that in this class there was such a set, but it was not all made by hand, it was all taken somewhere , there were bees, there was something else, dapu, yes, furs, that is

, now gas, oil, never there was no such thing. what is the final product? therefore, it was necessary to seize new territories to at least remove the raw materials. well, what about russia without raw materials ? without this, it’s a very good question. i often ask my colleagues. name me one russian brand that has some. well real such well-known in global countries yes yes, ikea mercedes is a given. well, anything is there, yogurts, cars, boeing airplanes , yes, and really, really, russia, except for oil or some resources , they don’t have any such brand, they don’t have iphones, they don’t have sneakers , and there’s nothing, and this of course reflects

well, the low level of economic development is, first of all, and secondly, it tells us that the economic future is in russia. there was also some oil there there was even production yes, but the oil ran out, the soviet union collapsed, of course they will have some kind of market economy someone will find something darker there, something may grow, something new will be there, but under the current conditions well, here is the best example there will probably be some kind of venezuela yes, they have inflation there decay yes, it can last for 10 years or 100 years , well, look at argentina. yes, in principle , there are very, very many countries and so many resources, but all the time someone is interfering there and there are some external enemies, someone needs to be attacked, some there islands to be conquered or recaptured, that is why russia may have such a future that they can be in such a state for 10 years and be there for 100 years. north korea has been

in this state for how many 80 years. well, russia can also choose such a future for itself, of course it's unpleasant. but there is such an option. i thank mr. yuriy gordnichenko, professor of economics at the university of california, berkeley. i'll just add one thing that for me, if the personification of russia is the famous left-handed man who shoed a flea once, the russians can do something, but they cannot they agree to catch 10 idiots, but they can't do it in one, they can do something once, but they can't put it on the stream, and it's really true. thank you, mr. yuri, thank you for explaining everything to us, now we will have it from the united states to the eastern eastern east because ihor sebe volos, the director of the center for middle eastern studies, will be with us

and we will although we will maybe about the far east, but about the middle east, now we will start with the middle east and definitely from turkey mr. igor thank you for joining us that we we can say about the fate of erdoğan, the elections. as far as i understand, it's been less than two weeks, and this means, but these are neighbors. this is an important person, an important person, an important country, after all, where will we rest and will there be rest after the war in turkey without zordogan ? is it all because of erdoğ that we must rest with the task? well, i think we will first of all rest in crimea on the coast of the black and azov seas , eh, absolutely optimistic node without any difference . but if we talk about turkey, then the situation

there, well, let's say yes in general there only-fifty, that is, approximately certain- the same number of votes, uh, percent of votes , erdoğan and the number of votes have a role . in social networks and in public speeches , etc., according to some experts, he seized the initiative, well , he is already forming narratives to which erdogan is forced to respond in what way, the opposition is mobilizing. they also have plans

to win in the first round, and we will see how it will be, uh, there is a feeling that the opposition is gathering and the potential of the opposition is quite high, and it is felt by toma, after all , after more than 20 years of rule, the wind of dugana is felt about the economic and financial problems of turkey, and against this background, of course, the position is for the first time in the last 20 years, and can get a chance to defeat the ruling president when officials of the doganin regime, in particular the ministry of internal affairs, say that these elections look like a coup, does it mean that there will be an attempt to somehow retain power even in under the conditions of the loss of the current president, mr. internal affairs in turkey, he is distinguished by the breadth of his reviews, and he already spoke about the united states

of america, and uh, well, in other words. and this person and the person who is released uh in order to create this feeling of anxiety among the representatives of the ruling ruling group and to mobilize their supporters as much as possible, that is, i would evaluate and well i would evaluate his statements seriously but at the same time i would make an amendment to the wind that this person is she in fact, he speaks mainly and such an order to turkish politics, although, of course, these statements are unprecedented from the point of view of democracy, let me remind you that turkey is a democratic country and the government changes precisely at the elections, and it is, well, if hm, obviously, mr.

minister has forgotten that in turkey there is no hamed is the second one, and actually the president of turkey, who do you actually elect, that is, not the sultan? sometimes they just forget about it, and that's when it happens. such rather annoying statements that, frankly speaking, do not correspond to the spirit of a democratic country, which is already here turkey without you can have doubts. say say. you can also ask what we forget all the time . why is may 14 not only the presidential election but also the parliament, and if it happens that one party wins the presidential palace and the other the parliament, will this lead to permanent instability также in principle, there may be many experts estimate such a probability is very high and you mean that erdoğan will remain in the position of president and in the parliament

it will happen well, let's say that the opposition will strengthen or vice versa it will be the other way around, it is very likely that if er, kilish now wins the presidential election, then in the parliament, we will also see the majority of the opposition, but the first option is possible. to give the opposition the opportunity to play a little, you know that there are many deputies in the parliament, that many political parties , the restaurant is counting on the fact that they will not be able to agree on positions, the act of partisanship is quite powerful and leave it there despite such a conditional loss, and after such a mess, after some time, how bad can the parliament be dissolved and then a new election will be called or called and there will be a new park , well, what is convenient for him, that is, such a scenario

exists. i think that turkish politicians are aware of this and also focus as much as possible on the struggle for the presidential seat, because the presidential seat itself is the key. igor, look, and in the event of victory , we will ask, in the event of a victory of the opposition, whether it is enough for the turks in power to return to the parliamentary of the presidential republic before ataturkism from a secular state and so on and so on and so on as far as he left them all. well, the fact is that this is one of the key tasks of the opposition, they stated this and it is written in their plan of action, this return

to the parliamentary-presidential republic and ot it can be said that once upon a time he was a lavid m-m and he just e-e in his speeches , talking briefly about his family and his life, he talks a lot about what he wants that in turkey each a person, despite his religion, would feel like a free person and lived in a free democratic country, that is, the message is very correct. and we can say that they are visiting a significant number of igor. but look but but but he is completely different, religious less here by the way, the explanation already started to think right away, maybe they will now agree with the silians and so on and so on europe explain what alites are because by

the way no one knows this, but believe me practically no one has full details. they are boarders. no one knows, but the alibis are a religious group and a muslim religious group that is located on the territory of turkey. well, not only on the territory of turkey, but in the territory of the middle east, and the differences are actually small, it’s just a historical thing. such a group, ok, of course it also has more ethnic features. let's go further . although i promised that we would focus on the middle east, we also need to somehow

touch on the far east, but what kind of game is china that doesn't often votes against the interests of russia, and recently the organization voted this way, this is a game of chinese diplomacy so that you can say, considering that you are definitely not that deep in chinese politics, but that's it, just look at it, it's really such a wonder. how was it for me? they took it and didn't vote for russia. it's just that they 're playing with russia or what do you know. they later explained for a long time that they didn't mean that, that is, after this vote , the chinese were forced to at least do the same as mine a separate statement regarding the fact that this does not mean that china's position on the ukrainian crisis, as they claim, has changed and the situation is not the same as it actually was that it was still about

er-er it was about russian aggression, it was really more er, the resolution was about something else, that is, i would say that they are trying to minimize the possible negative consequences of this resolution, that is, the interpretation of the interpretation, and immediately around this vote , a lot arose, and it is clear that the chinese were forced to react in the same way that they reacted, well, this in approximately the same way as they reacted to the interview of the chinese ambassador to france. yes, what are we there? everything remains as i personally think, this is the point of view of the chinese ambassador, but why can you say that they voted against er russian narratives in favor of that to recognize russia as an aggressor, on the other hand, they declared that they do not recognize russia as an aggressor , why is there no such clear line? well, because there is no such clear line in this region. well

, they say that when these dolphins brought a report that russia would not be able to win the war and that the situation is bad. he said that it is a lie. he doesn't believe everything. well, that is, there are certain types of tunnel vision thinking. obviously , to a large extent, all of this is determined by the opinion of the leader, if you can ask. because the whole world is tense because of the sudanese events, sudan is definitely not the near east. and the near east, but the arab countries, that is, not the arab muslim countries, to what extent is the influence of china there, is china interested in some kind of settled situation. and on the corner of africa , that is, in the red sea, this whole complex

of issues, a lot of which has accumulated there and now there is also sudan, and china definitely plays a not small role, let's say in africa in general, as much as he is interested in dealing with sudan and fixing the situation on the african side, and the chinese are actively working in africa. i would say that this is such a specific chinese imperialism, they are quite active . the main goal is, of course, resources , the peculiarities of the chinese work in africa is when they come with their samovar, and practically with their workers, and their main task is the exploitation of resources. but the chinese have an advantage that authoritarian states like they do not interfere in internal affairs, they do not demand democratic elections and the like, yes, that is, they are less interested in politics, the africans like it, the liberated peoples

of africa like this, that is exactly the approach, and in sudan, in sudan, the chinese also have less interests than, say, in the tour americans and russians flew in, but in general we can say that they also actively probed the ground at least in the past in order to create a military there , well, a naval base. sea, there are many, many negotiations about the possible formation of foreign military bases there, and the russians and turks talked about it, and the americans actively studied this topic. well, the chinese also stuck their noses in there and

actively supported this topic by some at least i don’t have any of them, but i haven’t seen any such important information about the powerful chinese presence in sudan, but they are there at least at the level of hmm penetration. yes, there are their agents and obviously negotiations, that’s a fact. here you are. they told igor that china was less interested in sudan than israel, the usa, russia, and egypt, turkey, and turkey, egypt, egypt by itself. yes, and there are also the united arab emirates. there are too many players who, in principle , want to lose there. what is there? it's just this red sea, babin, the bandeb strait, the suez canal, or is there something so specific, it's clear that these are her neighbors, it's interesting to them, but turkey, israel, well, the united states

, everyone is interesting in the world, russia, we understand wagner , but israel and, er, and turkey, what what there is such turkey also wants to build a port, or rather a base, they even want to restore the old ottoman base there, and on the shores of the red sea there is one in the gulf, and the israelis are clearly interested in the normalization of relations with sudan, because at least there was progress in accordance with the agreements of abraham and sudan undertook to establish diplomatic relations with israel. there was a whole series of negotiations . by the way, on the basis of this, the americans found themselves on the list of terrorist countries of countries that support terrorism.