[000:00:00;00] well, that's how to influence kazakhstan on the question. and here it is, nadezhda is somehow divided nationally, that is, it is possible to speak in fact, so she speaks to her population about the fact that she narrated the use of the victory nomenclature by the former park to the household to take revenge after the 10th anniversary of the russian administration if that’s how it is in prosty, and actually i just thought, i remember what they called in our chats with him , never this person. he didn’t hide it , he didn’t say it directly like islam. to see such a country as far as this decision took place in general according to your opinion. well, there is a little complex, you know, if it was really engaged in the construction of a modern national state for the previous 30 years, that is, the civil political nation and so on with the integration mechanisms that you

received sufficient funding and would pay people, then here on the contrary i call it always i will say that they speculated exploited and divided into ethnic groups within the country eh secondly eh still he a man of the soviet past and that's it. let's put it this way . let's put it this way. the framework that was created in the soviet union for the division of people into nations was always dominated by egypt. it is in a state where we will say er disintegration , that is, it is a policy of reducing the mobilization potential within the society, and now we see that er some

regions are still more turned in the direction of russia and less integrated in the united let's say this is the political fabric of kazakhstan the second moment eh regarding the technical divisions within kazakhstan still russian propaganda also very well affects these plus economic ties because the northern territory is not more let's say integrated vk is in the economy, when interaction with russia is not as bad as with the southern regions of kazakhstan, and no one is serious about this, too , in the last 30 years, so how is it that this decision did not work? and the russian population in kazakhstan, it showed some political activity in the early 1990s, but after the fifth year. how was such a personal autocracy formed in kazakhstan ? russians dropped out of the political process in kazakhstan. the same as it was in crimea or in donbass, they

gradually simply assimilate and stop , that is, they are like that, there is no prospect of becoming a political force. she is not going anywhere in moscow, of course, yes, but now , if they interact well, she has a loyal president , why does he change this format of mutual relations , everything works so well, everything is reimported , there are new contracts for military cooperation , regulations, eh, no serious actions on the part of eh - the government of the electric leadership of kazakhstan is not undertaken in opposition to russia , they suspended the transition program , the news, and so on. they show how much i love loyally such a person in the kremlin. thank you for this explanation. dima shalzhanov, a kazakh political scientist, we

were on the phone. and now we will talk about the country that is currently in the center of attention. the president and parliament of turkey, which many consider fateful, we will talk about it with evgenia haber, senior analyst at the center for studies of modern and turkish memory evgenia greetings good evening greetings well, what is this literally you know, it's almost like eurovision, only it's more interesting. eurovision is a day away, and the turkish elections are two days away, and we can already understand what happened in the morning of may 15. and what will happen , what is the landscape before the battle? called by many already called fateful because they choose not only the president and the parliament , not only new names or old names, in fact they choose the form of government in turkey

, presidential or parliamentary, they choose the style life is more conservative, muslim or secular, they largely choose the western course or the one that is now the special path of turkey, so for many turks it is actually a fateful choice. especially since this is the centenary of the turkish republic and each of the candidates promises a new century in the life of the turkish republic in a completely different way. different, what do you think is the position of the main candidates now, especially after there were fewer of these candidates? how did the former opposition candidate mahara minjo refuse to participate in the elections, of course he was not small small rating in recent weeks but nevertheless now every percent i would say absolutely every percent counts because each of the candidates wants to win in the first round to win the first round in the presidential election you need to score 50%, plus

one vote ago, all the votes are counted and the latest survey shows that the opposition candidate you see on the screens now has 49.5%, and the president reduganna has somewhere around 44%, and this is a trend that is constantly changing in favor of rogu's calendar. therefore, these even a few percentages that can go from an inge who was removed to a former darg are really important, and it is also important that he himself is already a former party member once a gift to the corner. that is, it is essentially the same electoral base and a large does not want to measure, there are not very many of those votes there, somewhere around three percent. but nevertheless, this is something that can help one day, and even morally and psychologically, it is again a blow to the ruling coalition, that is why the competition is so close and everyone is watching what will happen on sunday, the heat is absolute in society, in the media, there are more and more all kinds of interference in the information, so

these elections will not be simple, this is a fact. well, i am . by the way, i listened to this speech by fig, in which he , uh, announced that he was refusing to participate in the elections, and he actually criticized the position, not evdogan. i was surprised by this, in fact, he criticizes the position very often , because like anyone who left the party and gave way to another leader, there are certain political grudges within the party of jehope, the main positional party of the republican people's party, that's why he actually did not join this table of six. those who follow turkey, knowing that there are currently six main parties in the opposition , are completely different. redugana, but it was the fig that did not want to join. it was precisely because he had his own political ambitions that he

criticized the opposition to the government and positioned himself as any populist, by the way, as such it is not surprising that he is not a system player, but now, first of all, he no longer had any chance of winning, and secondly, it is obvious that every vote plus all the scandals in the cds, like the scandals of cassettes and tapes, all led to the fact that he decided to remove himself after all from the pre-election race. by the way, sex scandals and tapes when zdaru glo says that it was russia that interfered in the elections in turkey, that he has undeniable evidence of this influence. evidence of russia's participation in the compromising of candidates. it seems to me that we are talking about all these tapes that appeared and were connected to the nd. it is profitable now to throw in some tapes against

the others because the engineer took it upon himself to announce the opposition, well, that is, if you think logically when inzhe self-eliminates when zhdar uglu will get more votes, i.e. in this way, russia allegedly helps the coup to win these elections. that is, it does not really fit into any logical structure, on the other hand, they say that there are many different fakes, deep fakes not only against inzhe but against the former darug himself, that is why he played ahead of the game when talking about russia's interference in the elections, the experts are basically the last in the fact that it is beneficial for russia or rudogan remained well, we know what ordigan's relationship with putin is of leaders is a plus to everything else of course it is not profitable in russia or there was a western course in turkey that promises the slogan is given by the opposition, therefore there are facts that it is profitable for russia or that redugan remained in

power and when daruga says that certain omissions are possible in the future, so he says in advance that if you see me there, don't believe it. with terrorists or someone else, don't believe it, because it will all be russia's desire to influence the results of the elections. russia denies interference, of course , erdogan also says about the fact that russia does not interfere , rather, the united states intervenes in order to support the kilish of the gift . well, when there are two days left before such fateful elections, it is obvious that there will be no rhetoric on the part of both the opposition and the government. we say that russia is interested in berdogan, but this is a strange situation from this point of view , that there were different relations, and at the same time, until mr. the prime minister was of course more pro-western leaders and less about western leaders, but

to say that the turkish leaders tried to somehow quarrel with russia or to remember the next decade there, you don't know, suleiman where are mirelit or bilents alive, and have any of the turkish leaders always tried to build relations with moscow, especially after the 90s, maybe it’s just that putin is generally against any change of power anywhere, he just doesn’t know how to work with new leaders in fact, there will not be any drastic change, just as reprehensible if the darg wins someday, because there are already statements from the opposition that relations with russia are important and that despite the fact that turkey is a member of nato, she will state this more clearly all it is important to maintain relations with russia and it is not only about putin erdogan, it is about the fact that turkey occupies 45% of imported gas in russia, it is about the dependence of economic

markets on russian money, but it is about the fact that first of all, it is any change of power that leads to the need to build new relations, secondly, this team will clearly be more pro-western than the previous one, that is , worse than in the previous 20 years, and turkey is a player who always advocates for the status quo , that is, against any changes in the region in russia 20 years in a row putin in turkey 20 years of verdogan that's why they are comfortable not being each other it's not friendship it's not love but they understand each other it's a close style of ruling the country it's a close style of decision-making when one word of one person solves all issues if we talk about the calendar prepare, they talk about returning to strong institutions, to increasing the role of the ministry of foreign affairs, to various decision-making centers, this is obviously not what moscow needs, but again, you are

absolutely right, it was them in the 90s and in the previous years and even in the previous one can be remembered from the second world war and before, always for turkey, the policy of balancing a certain neutrality, maintaining relations with all parties, it was key, so i do not think that anything will change, and russia also remains an important factor and will remain under any schedule in these elections and the fact that russia suspended this grain agreement and now they say that today or tomorrow the president will reprimand you and announce its extension, this is such a pre-election gift and how much he important for the elections on the extension of the agreement, the last one is now the grain agreement, when these corridors are almost not working, 90,100 ships are in the queue, russia is blocking the operation of these corridors. that is why it is so very relative, the relative work is obvious that being inside the coordination center and controlling the processes

from inside russia is very easy to control how much are these corridors working effectively or not? that's why we need to talk about unblocking it now and not just continuing after may 18. the second point is that i think that russia missed the dates a little because, in fact, may 14 is only the first round of elections, and lately they have been talking about the possible second round of presidential elections in turkey, which will take place on may 28. therefore, even if you think that it would be nice for putin to give such a gift, then on may 18 in during the break between the two rounds of elections in turkey, this crisis will also be created by a new agreement. this is obviously not what is needed, and i think that such a compromise option is blackmailing, raising rates periodically, all the same, all these fluctuations are political risks, they

are raising insurance prices and worsening our ukrainian situation, taking advantage of the opportunity, russia will do everything in its power to ruin our lives, but despite all that, i think that these two months are precisely designed to see who will come to power in turkey in the parliament and in the presidential elections, and by the way, in the government and in the parliament, it may happen that one coalition will control the presidential palace and the other the parliament. and that here, most likely , that will be the case. and this is such a scenario that considered by many as pessimistic, difficult, on the one hand, everything is decided by the president, well, that is, you have to understand that turkey currently has a presidential system of government, therefore , the parliament has very, very limited powers , this is a vote only for the budget, this is a vote for the use of armed forces abroad. well, there are certain decisions, for example, membership sweden in nato there really needs a vote of the parliament but in fact there is no position of prime minister, absolutely all

ministers in the government and any other high-ranking bureaucrats are appointed by the president therefore, it is important who will become the president in the parliament. and in order to change the system and go from the presidential system to the parliamentary system again, there are not enough votes now and it will not be enough even if the opposition takes a good position, because for this to change the constitution, 3/5 of the votes are needed . the 3/5 opposition doesn't even get half of the votes, so there is an option if , relatively speaking, redugan wins the elections, and in the parliament there is this collective hodgepodge of everyone with everything that he either dissolves the parliament after a while time in order to avoid a political crisis or will largely govern the country independently by direct decisions by decrees, the parliament will have its own life with all these debates and showdowns, but for now well, as of now

, the position in the presidential elections is better than clichés in the parliamentary elections, after all erdoğan's party of development justice gains approximately 44-45%, and the opposition party is less, that is, somewhere around 38-39%. and the possibility of a situational coalition, i will not go into details, but since the two blocs of the opposition are in power rather, against erdogan and for erdogan, and not ideological coalitions of some kind, there are approximately the same parties with the same political direction on different sides of the barricades, therefore, for a specific decision, i do not exclude the possibility of such very situational one-off coalitions in order to pass certain decisions through the parliament , they said that huge the position of the people's democratic party, which represents the interests of the people of kursk, will be important . is it ready not to nominate its candidate in order to increase the opportunities

of the opposition leader? moreover, the leader of the people's democratic party, mr. dimertashi, who is in prison, is confident in the victory of kilychdaroglu, but on the other hand, there are party jackets on the other side of the barricade on the side of evdogan, as you say . these 20 years can support today's current president if you look at the way in such constructions because yesterday's opponents and competitors are now uniting and those who have always been together they support different candidates and this is connected precisely with the specifics of these elections, what concerns the kursk parties, in fact, for the most part, the majority of the kursk votes are still the people's democracy party, which has now been renamed and became the left green party because there was a threat that they could

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