[000:00:00;00] offensive actions will already begin, what will it be, what will the signs be, i can definitely say that we will not see the picture as an older generation is possible. are those who watch younger films of the second world war or the first? is this a red rocket that will be launched and soldiers will rise from the trenches and tanks will move in logs or rows. actually, in my opinion, the machine has already started . that's when the operation itself will begin. well, what for us as viewers and listeners ? the russians retreated in one city in another, if these messages are much more frequent and much larger, well, something like

what happened near kharkiv or in kherson, although these operations, as we know, were also quite different in their planning, well, actually, the duration of such an operation is ideal somewhere around 20 days, i just want to add that i will repeat once again that both the ministry of defense of russia and the founder of the wagner group have recognized that they have recognized their retreat from positions north of bakhmut , which enables the ukrainian military to control the road for the time being, british intelligence today informed its review that they believe that in the short term, russia will probably use cruise missiles of such caliber as a key tool for sending e-e strikes deep into the territory of ukraine with the aim of disrupting ukrainian counterattacks, and to the extent that it can actually to be an effective scenario for the kremlin, it is unlikely that russia will change its strategic and

something because, er, we do not know the exact number of missiles, estimated data, but it is clear that this number of missiles was significantly depleted reserves missiles were significantly depleted, only russia tried to achieve the goal of undermining the energy system of ukraine, again , we are all witnesses to this, we suffered from this, that russia failed this goal and such massive strikes, well, in russia, now the russian team will have to make a difficult choice or is it 1 - 2 such strikes or will it be a series of strikes, it is a smaller number, but in connection with this there is another rather interesting question, because in addition to missiles, russia also has aviation, this is how ukraine will be able to compensate for the per-russian advantage in of aviation, i think that the use of missiles

with a range of more than 100 km can be such a serious compensator for the lack of adequate air support for our advancing troops . exactly the weapon that ukraine was waiting for to start a counteroffensive because this is how if you went - you noticed literally in one period volodymyr zelenskyi said that the military armed forces and motivation are there and the armed forces are ready for a counteroffensive, but some are missing what kind of equipment and then it became known that great britain is providing this storm of spares, this is what the armed forces of ukraine were waiting for, maybe it is difficult for me to say because it is obvious that this is not the only type of weapon that determined the timing of the start of the contour offensive, but here also if we analyze how it happened

informational support of the delivery 40 well, i think that the moment of notification of the delivery of these missiles was chosen precisely in the context of the most optimal to cause psychological something with the connection are you with us you yes you are with us the moment was chosen as much as possible in order to cause a psychological effect on the russians, that is, it really added to the panic of the russian commentator bloggers , then i think that after the russian military itself - the channels would have such, well, similar messages. perhaps there was a panic about the fact that the counteroffensive of the armed forces of ukraine had begun, er, something could have really started there. were these still signs of some kind of

panic for no reason? the fact is that with all the draconian measures used by the russian leadership prior to this imposition of censorship, military punishment for any freedom of expression, there still remains a certain category of vynhurs who are allowed to report because, well, everyone sees that konashenko is dissatisfied with tymoshenko. because they could not be stopped in time, but then they recovered quite quickly. they began to change the terms there that it was not a retreat but a withdrawal to the position, but the panic was really observed for literally several hours i don't think that it was organized by someone there specifically to mislead the ukrainian public. and one more question that i also want

to clarify, as far as i understand now , this is still the most secret thing that concerns the future counteroffensive. attention is focused on bakhmut and it would seem that something can happen there, but in addition there are a number of directions swativ kherson ughledar zaporizhzhia by the way, where is the so-called evacuation of the civilian population taking place or is it correct i understand that a counteroffensive can begin in any of these directions. despite the fact that the bakhmut region is the hottest area, the secretary of the nsdc , for example, danylo, talked about it. adjust the weather, and indeed you correctly noticed that this is a key issue. i think that this is precisely what the russians are fighting over right now in order

to unravel the intention of the ukrainian command, and most likely they are not succeeding in this, and obviously this contributes to such a rather different the situation that is observed there is at least just information on the parties and the last question is that president cheika should hurry up with the counteroffensive and he said that some people say that there is a temptation to push the ukrainians, but that they would demonstrate some results, but if the ukrainians hurry up and do it, well, not fully prepared, then the counteroffensive may fail, and then there will be no other chance this year to resume these offensive actions

. the great price of this offensive, i took his words rather not as advice to the ukrainian military and political leadership, but rather as a warning signal for those who push, well, you can push the country to the contract, because pavlo is one of the most professional generals who held one of the highest positions in nato. that's why i don't think that he was there to give advice, for example, to a lieutenant or a chief of general. i think that, in principle , your opinion is understood, unfortunately, just right the connection was cut off at the very end. it was oleksiy melnyk, co-director of foreign policy and international security programs at the razumkova center. i'm already saying goodbye to you. thank you very much for your comment. oleksiy melnyk was

on radio svoboda. well, already this sunday , may 14, in turkish turkey is going to hold presidential parliamentary elections, because it is its leader who ruled the country for the last 9 years. and before that he was the prime minister for 11 years. he is trying to hold on to power, but at the same time he has every chance of losing it . election observers in turkey call these races. the race is the biggest test for erdoğan in the last 20 years, some political scientists call these elections the elections of the century, or they are held just before the centenary of the proclamation that had the turkic mother of the republic of turkey, and today they say that the republic is again opposing the empire, the main competitor of erdoğan is 74-year-old kemal kelichdar uğlu, according to the latest data sociological polls ahead of the current president by 5% points in the first round, which means that the winner will be determined by the second round, which should

take place on may 28 as a war in ukraine affects the turkish elections and how these elections will affect ukraine well, according to the international editor of radio svoboda rostislav khotyn, the turks are electing not just a president, but a model for the future of this influential state for ukraine and the war, the results of the turkish elections will not have a radical difference, the bayraktars will be supplied, corvettes will be built for the ukrainian navy turkey will continue to balance between ukraine and russia, on the one hand, supporting the territorial integrity of ukraine, including crimea, and on the other hand, trading with russia and actually mitigating the effect of sanctions against russia, however, the opposition still wants to distance itself from russia and remind it that turkey is a member of nato, but the grain agreement to which president erdoğan contributed will work like the well-known agreement on the grain corridor, which was one

of the main points of the agreement between russia and ukraine should end as a result of our negotiations with both sides, we agreed to extend this agreement, which ended on march 19-dar oglu, there will be differences in the broader foreign policy , the opposition can withdraw turkish troops from syria and libya will not be opposed to sweden's membership in nato, it is possible that antira will refuse the russian air defense systems s-400, the acquisition of which has spoiled relations with washington, the opposition is for a wider rapprochement of turkey with the west for the first time in 20 years of being in power, erdoğan has faced a serious possibility of its loss, he is holding elections on a month earlier, before the elections, erdogan

launched the turkish aircraft carrier, the first in the world to carry drones. domestic forces discovered a significant gas field on the black sea shelf of turkey, and erdogan promised the turks free gas a few days before the elections, russia postponed turkey's payment of a $600 million tranche of the gas debt moscow puts on erdogan , the akuyu nuclear power plant, which was built by the russian nuclear power plant on the eve of the elections, was opened to public officials turkey raised salaries by 45%. will this be enough for erdoğan's victory? his problem is the economy and relatively high inflation in april was 44%, and six months ago

more than 80%. nor did the earthquake in the south of turkey take the lives of almost 50,000 people and highlighted the problem of low-quality construction and corruption in the construction sector and local government. erdogan's entourage creates a cult for him , comparing his importance and greatness with the founder of modern turkey, kimil ataturk, in istanbul, even the erdogan museum was opened there alone among his main achievements is the transformation of hagia sophia from a museum to a mosque, but erdogan is more of an anti-atatürk, kemal atatürk advocated a post-ottoman secular turkey turkey has been westernized by erdoğan, and the nationalist islamist opposition, in the event of victory, wants to return turkey to a parliamentary system instead of a strong presidential one. as the leaders of the political parties that formed the national alliance, we agreed on a road map for a strengthened

parliamentary system. so, these turkish elections are about a much larger provision of forgiveness for the model of the future turkey or will it be under the authoritarian rule of the nationalist islamist redzep and ipa erdoğan? will the secular democratic model of the cabal atatürk republic against the empire this is what the kemalist kemal kilichdar uglu and his opponent, what is sultan erdogan called, are actually competing for, if rajep and her perdogan lose these elections , what will change in the relations between turkey and ukraine , or for example turkey and russia, because a number of political scientists believe that putin interested in the victory of erdoğan, what effect can these elections have on the war on the war in ukraine , now we will talk about it on the air , yevgenia haber, senior researcher

of the atlantic cancel and the center for the study of modern turk - turkey, candidate of political sciences at carleton university. good evening. good evening. greetings to you, evgenia. well, the polls show that he still has a slight advantage over the current president, murdogan, by about five percentage points. is it possible to focus on this poll and assume that erdanyan really is losing power, polls show different data , there was approximately a 2% difference of 1.5-2% until yesterday, yesterday, one of the candidates for the presidency , there were four mukhare, my, he has already removed his candidacy from the race and it actually worked in favor of the opposition, this is what most political scientists think, because he himself is a former member of the party when i was in the corner and he played on the opposition's field, so the fact that he has now been removed, it adds certain points to a large extent, a small percentage, but certain points are once a price therefore, theoretically, the possibility

of winning and even winning in the first round is already there, but of course, another question is how well it will work, how much the electorate will be mobilized by the government and the opposition, and how ready the government will be to accept such a scenario of losing in the first round, that's all for now, open questions. is erdogan ready, do you mean a peaceful transfer of power? it's an open question that his fringe society is very electrified , and what's more, from ordigan's side, from daruğlu's side , really, as your colleague said, it's not me it's just a question of changing the name or changing the leader, it 's a question of the future vision of the state and to a large extent how these elections are currently presented .

according to what he proposes do you want turkey according to that model of decentralized power of human rights about the western course of women ? in the bulletproof vest, in turn, ortogan says that if they lose these elections, it may be because of the intervention of the united states and this is an attempted coup, well, that is, he does not say directly, but he says that on july 15, 2016, we have already survived one coup, are ready to survive these elections, that's why, unfortunately, this is the degree of internal discussion in society. it becomes even higher every day and every hour . well, you just mentioned that society is polarized, and our colleagues from the azerbaijani service of radio freedom they work in istanbul and just conducted a survey of the residents of the city about what they expect from these elections

. let's take a look at it briefly and then continue. the republican people's party will win. we have no other choice than vote for her, we suffer, the situation is bad, poverty is widespread, everything is very expensive, all of us are not very tall , we can't even go to the bazaar, the elections are going well, everything is fine, we see what the government has achieved, they also helped azerbaijan during the war with armenia, we cannot abandon erdogan everything is clear, we will vote for erdoğan, we do not interfere in these things , i want everything to end

well. kilish dear, i don't think about it at all, and the choice of kilich is fine, because i support yevgeny's republican values ​​- really, as our colleague said, and not only him, that now is such a moment when the empire, although here erdoğan is rather jokingly called the sultan, i have the emperor , but what is the empire against? republic, do you agree with this analogy? i don't like analogies, especially regarding the sultanate and everything else, because it seems to me to be an exaggeration. i spend a lot of time in turkey and i see how even inside the country, the government is often criticized as representatives of various expert circles in the presence of some official officials can afford to criticize. therefore , there is no need to exaggerate all these processes. of course, there are trends, these are anti-democratic trends. unfortunately , all the reports from

the european union to other international organizations testify to this process. no less, to a large extent , civil society lives by the fact that people absolutely calmly talk about how they support the opposition, but this is all evidence of the fact that, after all, not everything is so it's bad, but it's obvious that if the president remains in power, there will be more and more centralization, it will be more and more uh, well, all the levers of influence are concentrated in the hands of a single leader, all the decisions that will be made simultaneously by perdogan in all spheres, and that's what the people want, first of all of economic changes, the economy is very, very important, and human rights are also important. freedom of speech. but now it is mostly the economy, and the problems in the economy are again from the intervention of the state, from the manual management of the central bank , from the artificial underestimation of the discount rates. of course, people are tired of all this and there are three wishes, the first is the improvement of the economic situation, the second is the return

of syrians back to syria, and the third is more freedom and more rights, well, of all these wishes , of course, the best answer is now, once upon a time , here is yevgenia. and there is such an opinion that putin allegedly supports erdoğan and even says that he may try to interfere in the elections, but in particular, today, in particular, his opponent was reprimanded by kemal klychdar uglu, he publicly accused russia of interfering in the presidential elections, or is it possible that russia really can interfere in the elections of the president of turkey and whether the thesis that putin is really interested in erdogan's victory is true. well, the fact that during the last 20 years special relations between erdogan and putin have been built is a fact . another question is to what extent these relations can be called friendship or trusting relations. i wouldn’t talk about it, but the style of government, the views are much closer to the russian

format, let’s say, decision-making for the current turkish government than the european bureaucracy, chaos and these are all incomprehensible there are commissions, institutions, 38 levels of decision-making in russia, everything is clear and understandable , there is a specific person with whom you can negotiate , so in this sense, of course, there is this established direct channel of communication, the second point is that it is connected with sufficiently large financial infusions of russian capital in the turkish economy, a lot is written about it, a lot is said about it, this is what concerns the construction of the battery. but not only the qatari arab asked, and russian capital, against the background of the lack of western investment, largely maintains a certain level the stability of the turkish economy and all this also plays into the hands of the current government, that is why there is such a general vision that it would be more interesting for putin to communicate with serdoğan than with a pro-western position that will

aspire to join the european union, nato, and that's all there is to it related, however, to what extent russia can interfere in the elections, turkish experts said the day before that the possibility of hacker cyber attacks of some kind of interference with fakes, deep fakes, they are not excluded, there is a very high probability, but this statement some time ago last night about the fact that there are cassette scandals fabricated in a bunch, all that russia is actually behind this, his address in russian on twitter, well, it had such a certain effect as a bomb in the information space of turkey, and today erdogan said that it was not true, russia said that it was true and moreover, redugan accused the united states and the west of meddling, allegedly on the side of the cliché, so obviously, without having any specific facts on hand, we

cannot say 100% about this, but what russia would be interested in not having of changes in turkey - this is what i think, the truth is, there are great chances for him to fundamentally change for ukraine, well, of course, taking into account the context of the war and taking into account, after all, the certain neutrality of turkey and the fact that it claims to be such a negotiator or something nothing will change because the opposition is talking about the need to preserve the balancing policy, the only thing now is that the opposition always emphasizes that it will be balancing with such a pro-ukrainian tone that, after all, turkey is a country nato, and if it has so far sought to follow its own special path on each specific issue, choosing its own special path is not always the same as the ukrainian e-e of nato members . now it will be a more pro-western turkey , well, that is, this is an obvious plus, but at the same time there is an understanding in the position that relations with russia it is necessary to keep an appeal

to some russian society experts from the side of the opposition. they were also representatives of the opposition. they also visit moscow because russia has always been and, unfortunately, will be an important factor for turkey and remains so. energy dependence on russia remains interested in economic contacts, that is why we will generally have such a more pro -western turkey, which is ready to possibly abandon the s400, which wants to restore military-technical cooperation with nato countries, but with all that, well, some such cardinal changes and let's say a statement in the style of estonia or poland that putin should be isolated and handed over to an international tribunal . unfortunately, we will not hear it in turkey under any government. turkey's role in ending this war is this the subject of let's say this the election programs

of both two candidates no, unfortunately, ukraine does not sound , unfortunately or fortunately, i do not know, but ukraine does not sound in the campaign campaign of turkey. there is even such a document called the memorandum of the united positions there , in principle , there are literally two pages devoted to foreign policy, i.e., the main ones are all issues related to the election campaign with contradictions with some different visions, this is the economy, this is financial policy lira investments are again corruption e institutions there, refugees, foreign policy is not a factor that divides the government and the opposition in most issues greece , cyprus, armenia a-a hmm, besides nato, the european union, the same syrian refugees, the opposition adheres to exactly the same provisions as the government, because the opposition is also supported by a nationalist voter. perhaps he is less religious. this voter may be more democratic, but he is just as

nationalist, so all these points are preserved in principle, since there is no of such a clear line that would separate them, foreign policy pays little attention to ukraine, an important diplomatic victory is the grain agreement, but the only thing that the grain agreement always sounds like is what ordugan and his team managed to achieve, and somewhere it is in this context sounds like but in principle everything else i would not say that ukraine occupies an important place in the election campaign and the last question in general can you assess whether we have enough information and data that i have developed relations in the turkish opposition with ukraine as an expert who spends a lot of time in turkey and communicates with various politicians and diplomats, i can say that in principle there are few of us in turkey , apart from official contacts from diplomats , little is known about us and we need these connections

not because we support the government or the opposition, do we need these connections at the level of experts , research institutes, journalists, artists , anyone, because in this sense, unfortunately , everything is sagging, the opposition understands what is happening in ukraine, they understand to a large extent that such is russia, but to say that there is a clear vision regarding ukraine, what to do with us, there is a clear vision of what ukraine's victory looks like, what russia's defeat and security in the black sea region are, unfortunately, this is all very, very true at the beginning and we still have a lot of work to do in this direction, thank you thank you very much, yevgenia yevgenia haber, senior researcher of the atlantic kalnetsev center for the study of modern turkey, karlovy vary, we talked about the presidential elections in turkey, which will already be held, i will remind you this sunday, the first round, thank you very much . and finally, one more video from our

a colleague of the correspondent's colleague maryana kushnir, the military of the armed forces of ukraine gave him greetings for their mothers on mother's day look happy mother's day so that they wait for their sons, they are very worried about us, they pray on time i want to congratulate my beloved mother on mother's day so that she does not worry to sleep peacefully i'm fine we stand by each other i want to congratulate my wife on mother's day she too mom don't worry about us everything will be fine we will definitely come back she is the best person in my life she is very worried sometimes she cries but she doesn't tell me about it she always calls me in a good mood i am very grateful to her for that because if she didn't call me with such a mood i wouldn't have such a mood here i want to congratulate all mothers , wait for yours sons, we will definitely all return alive and healthy and

we will win because we will win on the side of good . we love you all very much. i want to congratulate our dearest mothers who are waiting for us in such a difficult moment, we know that you are always with us mentally we believe in you you believe in us and everything will be ukrainian so that they wait for their children this is the first time the first line so that they wait for the victory every child will be behind us will come and hug his mother well and the last news for today that we will follow in particular so far, only kremlin resources such as ria novosti report that there was an explosion in occupied luhansk , a pillar of smoke is rising over the city, and in particular , there are no reports of casualties , but it is said that this happened in the area of ​​one of the plants, our colleagues from donbas realities will in particular follow