[000:00:00;00] it's simple. what exactly is the account of the reduction of currency restrictions? it is certain that it will not be significant, such a tangible growth for the population, because there is a delicate game with the expectations of the population. some kind of psychological mark of 40 and zero, because it’s all cash. well, in general, everything is positive hryvnia, which is simply stored on cards on on on on the current balances of the military and, well , and other people, yes, there is a high risk. she can go there, well, go. again, she wants to go to kovel the foreign exchange market will once again make, well, absolutely absolutely groundless, the real exchange rate where there is none, that's why the national bank still continues to manage the market in full, and the demand and supply in order not

to avoid any such jumps that may affect the exchange rates, expectations of the population are key. how do you currently assess the state of the ukrainian economy in general? what is it based on? in what proportions? expectations formed in all are quite positive. revised forecasts and significantly up, i.e. it gives a poppy of 2% raised the forecast realistically and other organizations in fact, after we got rid of the energy deficit in the system , the situation looks much and much more optimistic, the key thing is, well, look, when we gave approximately nine in the summer of last year, we came out in a certain situation when, in principle, they stopped falling, but all that is missing are the prerequisites for growth

, some situational factors. well, there are also seasonal energy infrastructures, how will the sowing take place now how can the chinese export the crop, how will the farmers behave, well, if such fine details are actually, well, and business and the population expects some kind of stabilization, at least in terms of military risks a-a well, until the end of the year, we will still remain in this situation yes, no, high fluctuations there are no prerequisites for growth, but there is no reason for inheritance, we actually hung at this level, and the president is traveling badly. that is, there are 155 billion dollars from 200 and the pre-war year 2021 , well, let's say it hung on them, and then until the end of the war our economy

return of taxes to the level before the full-scale invasion, nothing has changed completely in the structure of the economy, and if before the war there were 66 e-e 65% of the economy, roughly speaking, it was the private sector, only a third was formed, and state spending now this proportion has completely reversed, two-thirds of gdp is formed precisely at the expense of the state expenses, therefore, talk about the fact that taxes are needed to finance the army , if there is a sufficient level, well, to finance the army, everything else, well, taxes are secondary, but still, well, budget expenditures are are determined by the international army, international funding of ukraine, unfortunately, unfortunately, that is, well, this is a long time . work on, on, on, on, on, on, on, on, returning to the market economy, put more demands on business, on entrepreneurs during the war. keep it as it is. how do you assess the amount of financial assistance that

we will now receive from our partners ? how much is it enough to calculate that the situation will be stable at least until the end of the year? see first that around august and september we managed to achieve not only a--well, enough amounts of financial aid, but before that there is enough rhythm, there is no such jumps as it was in may, june 2022, when there was no. well, it is clear. how to finance budget expenses for the next month. yes, and there natalia the bank printed, well, a record number of hundreds of billions of hryvnias in june, because in general, in june, there was no inflow of international aid now, but absolutely well , the situation is stable there, we grew, well, imagine from 22 billion dollars of reserves in the summer of last year, now up to 35 a-a foreign currency is coming in, and state expenses are actually a financed

, where the budget is actually 50%, and the deficit is 50%, and internal gifts are financing something, something, but, well, we see that, well, not like that no, not quite stable at first glance, the financing structure is still due to international financing due to the sufficiency of volumes due to the rhythm of receipts anyway, but so far , plus or minus, it looks quite stable . let's say, in your opinion, why were there various forecasts regarding the decline of the ukrainian economy and many global financial institutions believed that our economy would generally split in two . that's why the result exceeded all expectations . so, look at the two, it was quite pessimistic. the forecast of the heat bank seemed to be minus -40 - 45%.

ended at -20°, 29 - 29 and 2 and honestly, no one could estimate the level of international funding that really arrived in 2022, that is , in fact, if we take the calendar year of the war, we received about 30-8 billion dollars there february 24, 22 to february 24, 2023 ah this is actually a key and a key key source and stability is that it was impossible to evaluate the guys is to ask what before the war dana well 1.5 billion dollars before some vat even somewhere in 07 there were tranches they already they wanted it as such, yes, significantly, and well, the lighthouse regarding the assessment of the adequacy of the report number. well, there is the status of anti-corruption reforms, everything is fine with the reforms, the management of state-owned enterprises is good, well, with such a small amount

, believe me, april, april, and may during the war that ukraine will receive international financing of such guys it was extremely difficult, there were certain only, well, our applications are very, very not bold, but we see that in fact they are even the us department of agriculture predicts that in the current year the production of e-e wheat in ukraine will fall by 21%. we also remember the decision of the european commission , which issued an order to temporarily limit the export of grain, in particular, from ukraine to european countries. in your opinion, how will the situation in the ukrainian agricultural complex affect the ukrainian economy, given that before the full-scale russian invasion, agricultural products were one of the largest items in terms of volume in our exports, now the share of customers has grown. and if earlier

there was still a significant share, yes, in good months, up to 40% of iron ore exports made up the metal expert, but now it is an absolutely unprofitable business. and on the contrary, on for every exported ore, you still need to invest your money from the previous profits in order to keep the machine running, and now , during the war, we often increased it by the share of grain well, and oleinyk, which is called ready-made ready-made food products according to statistics in the export situation well, yes, it is really not easy and the restrictions on the expert due to the fortresses are maintained and there may be deterioration and grain so the general sector is difficult to account for the impressive harvest fell millions ago record pre-war

years seems to be up to 50-65, so we are in this range, there are still prerequisites for the further composition, i am not, i am not an agrarian expert, i will say thank you for the information, by the way, we plan to talk in more detail later just about the ukrainian agrarian sector hryhoriy kuzurza economist ukraine economy was with us on a direct video link and according to his estimates the situation in the ukrainian economy has stabilized we have already passed the point when we were at the bottom, relatively speaking, and now we have every reason to expect what awaits us. high and slow, but still growth, leaders are the first, the best, and so on and so on . the russians, led by their dictator putin , like to ascribe primacy to themselves. in various fields, they have really achieved a lot. for example, russia is among the top three world leaders in terms of the number of suicides, the world leader in disinformation, russia also broke world

records for the number of plane crashes in a year. and, of course, sanctions in terms of the number of restrictions, russia broke far ahead of the rest of the countries that were out of favor with the world community, the sanctions against russia that hit the hardest the country's economy and how the kremlin tries to circumvent the restrictions further in the story russia today is the most sanctioned country in the world against russian individuals and legal entities with more than 14,000 sanctions, the lion's share of them russia received after february 24, 2022 and left far behind the previous leaders of the world sanctions list in second place with a much smaller figure of 4,191 sanctions , followed by iran, followed by syria, which has more than 2.5 thousand restrictions, and north korea did not even make it to the top three. acts against it 2,133 sanctions against russia in eight years , more sanctions were introduced than against other

sanctioned countries during the last 70 years , the list of countries that have introduced sanctions against the russian federation are the leading countries of the european union is also on this list, the united kingdom, the united states, canada, switzerland, australia and japan, almost one and a half thousand natural persons have been sanctioned, their assets are frozen, they cannot travel or carry out financial transactions , 207 legal entities are also under sanctions, their assets are also frozen and financial transactions are prohibited among those who found themselves under sanctions are representatives of the highest authorities of the russian federation, oligarchs , military personnel, propagandists, representatives of the occupying power, 70% of the assets of the russian banking system are under sanctions, russian reserves in foreign currency stored in the eu are blocked, key russian banks have been excluded from the swift system, this does not allow them to carry out transactions around the world

, investments in projects co-financed by the russian direct investment fund are also prohibited. it is forbidden to provide russia with euro banknotes, perhaps the most painful blow to the russian economy was the complete ban on the import of all russian crude oil and petroleum products delivered by sea also introduced a price limit on the export of russian crude oil delivered by sea at the level of the maximum price of 60 us dollars per barrel oil products with a markup on crude such as diesel fuel gas and gasoline maximum price of 100 us dollars oil products with a discount on crude reflecting the dynamics of the market maximum price 45 us dollars per barrel , it is also prohibited to import all types of russian coal, it is prohibited to export , sell, supply or transfer to russia

airplanes and spare parts for them, as well as their service and repair the european union has also closed its airspace for russian planes, including private ones, with restrictions on the export of marine navigation goods and radio communication technology in effect. ships under the russian flag cannot enter eu ports , other countries refuse them. a quarter of russia's commercial air fleet is built in the eu, the usa and canada, this means that russia will not be able to maintain it at the level of international standards. the european union has limited russia's access to the most important advanced technologies that will eventually weaken its technological capabilities, sanctions stop state financing or financial assistance for trade with russia or its investment

support, including national expert support, the european union completely abandoned russian finished steel products and its semi-finished products and stopped supplying russia with luxury items that immediately felt representatives of the aggressor countries, drugs , additional import bans, including cement, rubber products, wood, strong and light alcoholic beverages, high-end products they do not export to russia jet fuel and impurities that can be used by the russian army, russian gold has also come under sanctions, it concerns both the metal itself and products made from it in general, such export restrictions on goods and technologies have cost russia almost 44 billion euros as far as imports here are concerned losses exceeded 91 billion euros russian citizens and legal entities are prohibited from participating in

eu procurement contracts no new contracts or agreements will be entered into with russian state bodies or related legal entities persons, the commission terminated the participation of the terrorist state in all current grant agreements and suspended until a special order all related payments under the horizon 2020 euro atom and erasmus programs, plus the eu agreement on the simplification of the visa regime with russia has been completely suspended; russian citizens no longer have privileged access to the countries of the european union, and now in order to open a visa they have to go through a much more complicated procedure . the european union introduced sanctions against the kremlin media that spread disinformation, stopped broadcasting and the distribution of a number of channels through cable, satellite or digital networks, platforms, websites and mobile applications, this also applies to broadcasts to third countries , global isolation and irreparable consequences for

the economy are felt not only by oligarchs and entrepreneurs and ordinary russians, russia is trying to circumvent sanctions by involving other countries, but soon and this path will already be blocked by the 11th package of sanctions that the european union will introduce in the near future. the grain agreement can be extended once again for two months , they assume in turkey in istanbul the two-day negotiations under the black sea grain initiative ended, but the parties reached the final decision and agreed to continue work in an online format . ukraine insists that the term of the agreement should be extended. will perform, in particular, it is about connecting rostiko from the bank to swift, resuming the supply of agricultural machinery, restoring access to russian ships to ports and

removal of sanctions from russian companies engaged in agricultural products and fertilizers denys marchuk, deputy chairman of the all-ukrainian agrarian council, is now joining our broadcast. denis, we congratulate you. good night . the initiative is an opportunity to export - it is what gives ukrainian producers of their goods the opportunity to plan their economy and it is an opportunity for our state to plan its economy because if we let's look at the actual export potential of ukraine for the entire 22nd year, if we sold, then 70% of this export is rural products, agricultural products, according to that, summer income gives the opportunity to feel some support from the economy, to feel the support of the armed forces of ukraine, and if we count from august 1, 22 -th year, including up to today, we managed to export

about 30 million tons through the grain corridors, i am not talking about the corridors of solidarity, taking into account the conditions of the war and bring up the blockade that russia constantly carries out in the black sea, in particular, by inhibiting the inspection of the bosphorus, this is still a fairly significant share of our exports, and at a time when we, as agrarians in the fields, are conducting an active permanent campaign, it is very important that there be a signal that exports will be continued, because people what we sow had the opportunity to sell we must understand that we are an export-oriented agricultural sector country, we always grow three times more than what we consume , accordingly, what we export gives us the opportunity again to support the economy, therefore any signals that go to the international arena about what to strengthen and preserve the possibility of export , they have a more positive effect on the dynamics both inside the country and on our external e-e partners who then carry out exports from the territory of ukraine, because in fact when russia started to announce that the grain

agreement will be valid for only 60 days, that is , it ends there on may 18, this immediately suspended grain contracting there at the end of april for mid-may, that is, in our country as well the only option left is to export through solidarity corridors through small ports, meaning through river ports through the danube, mr. denis, the russian federation has now told you that if russia's demands are not taken into account, then russia can withdraw from the grain agreement, and how high are these risks and is the option possible as it was then in november , when the russian federation allegedly withdrew from the grain agreement, but nevertheless grain continued to move through the corridor, it would be a good option in general to ensure the safety of the passage of merchant vessels of the black sea so that not to be held hostage by any statements from russia. i see, as i said, such statements always harm the economy of both our country and other countries with which we cooperate, but we

must understand that in the period of november, when we exported the territory of ukraine and our partners confirmed the agreement ion of turkey, and in fact at that time there were even statements from turkey that they were ready to provide military escort through the escorting of commercial ships by the military fleet of turkey nazar . they don't take on the sentence, moreover, you know, there are already elections in turkey today, and this election process is also trying to be used very strongly for its own purposes in order to have more opportunities for the lifting of sanctions, you had a very good story about the sanctions that are applied today the world in relation to russia , and here they are, due to pressure through grain water, still trying to make this painful process as little as possible for them, and in fact giving in to such actions, therefore saying now that we as a state, for example, as she said for sure we can do this because we are ready

to continue exporting. but are our partners ready to ensure security in the black sea ? certainly there is no such guarantee, the biggest guarantee, of course . it would be the transfer of as many weapons as possible to ukraine. distances well, of course, weapons that could be used on the water, that is, and in this way , we as a state would also take on all the more obligations, so far the situation is as it is, denis , close. now i am looking at two weeks it's been two weeks, but today it's been passed. when did the ban of the temporary european commission on the import of grain from ukraine come into effect? ​​does our agricultural market and agricultural sector already feel the influence of this ban and how does it affect our farmers? i would like to say thank you, because it was possible to quickly conduct negotiations both at the level of the european commission with these five

countries and at the level of ukraine. that if you look in the context of our agricultural products with these countries, we do not sell much there, we sell more measures using them as transit, but we state that in the first weeks of such a blockade yes, and the realization of the possibility of importing ukrainian products, we will actually lose more than 200 million euros there, and accordingly, this immediately producers and the processing industry, in particular , which took their products there, felt it, so it is very important if, in the conditions of the negotiations, it was possible to maintain the position on many other, let's say yes, nomination of products that could to import because today the ban applies only to the category of wheat, corn, sunflower seeds, rapeseed, and again, this is not so problematic in the context of our general exports

, considering that these countries export when , i'm sorry, transit to other regions , including the european union and on the third country in the world. well, it is a positive signal because this week ends we received confirmation from the european parliament about the longevity of the action without washing without a code for ukrainian goods, this gives hope, i am sure that we will be able to work in stable conditions of cooperation for at least another year. moreover, this ban on imports for these five countries is valid for only a month, that is, until june 5. we hope that during this month, within the framework of the european commission, they created commissions to study and study the situation to what extent affected the export of ukrainian grain on the agricultural sector in the european union will show that in fact in these five countries such an effort did not take place

. to the producers of goods mr. denis, how much agricultural products do we currently export through the so-called solidarity routes and how much did they expand during the period of the new phase of the war , well, actually, depending on the month. and we export 40% in the area there, we have a corridor of mass solidarity, 60% through the grain initiative. it is you in the black sea. of course, the direction we use the most is through romania, about the small ports, the river through the danube river, that is, where they move to the ports and in romania. and if there is a comparison there, for example, in march, 3.5 million were exported through corridors through the grain corridors of the black sea and two and a half through these small ports, everything else moved by land, that is, by rail or road, therefore, on average, depending on the month, all this can reach 2.5 3 million tons there , which are used for export through corridors of solidarity, therefore, in the context

of the general our ability to carry out the act of solidarity prosecution is very important, we need to continue to develop and integrate the ukrainian logistics system into the european system, but at the same time it is very important to have these transparent, clear, fixed rules of the game if its by the decision of the european commission for all countries of the european zone, it cannot be the case that then the government of some countries unilaterally prohibits imports , prohibits transit, and we as a state suffer from this. the processes taking place in the re-commission stabilize the conditions for the use of solidarity corridors in the interests of both the european union and ukraine. denys is the second seed company in ukrainian agriculture conducted in the conditions of a full-scale russian repetition, is it possible to say that they have already adapted to the new realities, and the solution of which problems still

worries them and will obviously not be found in the near future. adaptation, we are trying to help our armed forces of ukraine in order to end this war with a victory in the near future and continue to build our country, in fact, we demonstrated this at the beginning of the full-scale invasion when farmers helped the armed forces of ukraine, do you remember these videos with tugs and tractors when they stole this enemy equipment, in principle , it is all for the benefit of our common victories, if we speak directly of work on the land well, of course, like all other areas of the economy, he makes his changes in the agricultural sector as well sector . this is most reflected in the fact that the financial capabilities of commodity producers for the implementation of their companies have significantly decreased. and this is connected with the temporary occupation of a significant territory and a significant number of mined areas

lands even in unoccupied territories. well, the impossibility of exporting products at market prices because the war takes a very large share of the price of logistics and valuable insurance, and in these conditions it is very difficult to approach the implementation of a seed company, that is , 100% to guarantee the introduction of fertilizers or protection means plants or the purchase of high-quality materials. and in fact, we can already see this in the position of spring sowing in the 23rd year, when we forecast that the total harvest will be significantly less than it was in the 22nd year somewhere by 9-10 million less than it was, i emphasize, in 22nd year well, but in general, this will be enough to guarantee the food security of ukraine and even claim the possibility of a share of exports, in particular for wheat in our country, we previously have to forecast about 16.5 million, of which the export potential can reach about 10 million, that is , agrarians and commodity producers carry out their own work , but it would be very important, of course, in these conditions , when we have problems with exports, to have

the possibility of financial support in which in this context, we are not talking about providing any or providing any e-e loans that could not be repaid. no, we are ready to take loans. actually, we use the 579 program, but this program has a certain limit , that is, 90 million per legal entity, and so it happened that there are many producers who used this lime last season because everything became more expensive and it was very worthwhile to speak to increase the target to 180 million per legal entity, here all the goods producers who will take a loan will win the state , which will then receive the return of this loan from percentages and in general we are all with you as citizens because what will be sold then the currency revenue will also come to support the country's economy therefore this is a very important direction that we are conducting today in dialogue with our state authorities in this cabinet of ministers of ukraine so that it it may have become real , denisa, you say that the harvest of 2023 will be

smaller and much smaller than the harvest of 2022. and how much agricultural production did we manage to bring out , both by means of solidarity and by sea? to ukraine, see if you count as a whole, starting in flowers from april 22nd until today, in front of the roads, in front of the roads, the solidary managed to export up to 40 million, and in fact, what i said, the export potential that we realized at the expense of e-e work in the black sea, however, is 30 million, but it should be taken into account that this is not the entire harvest of the 22nd year, that is, we still had a very large amount of transitional residues of the 21st year, because we did not actually export for half a year at that time, and speaking in general, in principle, this gives the opportunity again i will support again economy of our country. thank you for the information. denys marchuk, the deputy chairman of the all-ukrainian agrarian council, was with us on a direct video link and

according to him, the ukrainian game has adapted to the new realities , however, the unpredictability of the volumes in which it will be possible to export in the near future, as well as the lack of a sufficient number of circulating of funds from manufacturers who purchase their raw materials on the domestic market today, these are two such strategic problems that , unfortunately, will not be solved in the near future. but even in such conditions in our agrarians continue their work, friends, and we continue our broadcast, watch the important information, and we will return in a few minutes, i am one of the first to take up the fight, i went forward under the explosions of guns, i changed the warm blanket of colored dreams to stretch wars