[000:00:00;00] could it be the ukrainians who got there from the land in the bryansk region? well, let's think about it, no, i'm not saying that we know if we're talking about a reconnaissance group that was allegedly located in the territory of the bryansk region. air-to-air missiles, as well as surface-to-air missiles, uh-uh, in fact, the surface of the air is also anti-aircraft missile complexes with missiles 100 km plus that can reach these very locations , and therefore, in some sense, it can be a missile of both the first and second class, but exactly where it was launched either by an anti-aircraft missile complex of an air defense system or from an aircraft that uses air-to-air missiles with a radius of more than 100 km. thank

you very much oleksandr kovalenko, military-politically , the viewer of the information resistance group was in touch with us and now oleksandr motil, historian, political scientist professor of rudger university of the united states good health mr. professor thank you for finding time for us i will try in a little while you take my ear here they say what's up with you what are you doing today what's up with you queue thank you that we are all standing in line somewhere at some important place p alexander, this is a question, uh, there was a meeting of saliva on the advisor to the president of the united states and ivan, and i would call him that, the member in front of the bureau, he is higher, he is the senior minister of foreign affairs, because there are real minister of foreign affairs and there are such i understand the senior ivan and what they could talk about that we can imagine in their conversations they want to reconcile

, the americans are taking some steps to make the alliance of american women against russia or just some kind of talk that does not lead to anything may or may not lead, that is, what is the interest of the united states in relations with china, you understand, the interests of america coincide with those of china on the lake side. i would like to say that this is completely my speculation, i have not the slightest idea what they really said there, but the very logic of their relations er, it actually leads to some conversations, leads to a kind of détente, oh, a lot of things would lead to a kind of détente, because in the end, this union that china signed through concluded with russia and the russian federation is certainly not

working as it should it is in the interests of china for russia to be involved in dealing with ukraine, destabilization or complete destabilization and even the potential collapse of the russian federation, this is also not in the interests of china, but on the other hand, of course , we would like ukraine to win at the same time, and it is also worried about destabilization eurasia so here there are various common topics about which they could talk, at least talk or agree. and that's another thirst, another matter , could we talk? the question is whether china would be ready to somehow talk with the russians, can talk with the ukrainians, can reach an agreement, hardly, hardly, i don’t think that they have such a big influence on putin himself, but

you understand, but it’s worth a try. well, then, in principle, if you look globally, where is the what do you think? we are definitely speculating . i emphasize with two red lines where the interest of the united states is in the world. because we see the chinese direction, the european direction through ukraine, we see the iranian direction and the americans have already made a statement that the situation in the gulf is such that it is necessary to put its fleet there. well, the more powerful ones should be represented there , that is, the number of places in the world, will there be enough space for ukraine in the head of the u.s. can you put it in the eyes of the americans or all the events around them? just withdraw energy and withdraw some financial opportunities

and so on, that is, it will be enough, or the americans are already so used to being the main player for everyone in the entire territory of the globe that it means nothing to them. okay, well, there will be two problems. well, there will be three there will be five, we will also decide 5 and 10 if you were not. this question was raised several years ago before the war, i would have said well, ukraine is really a secondary interest of america as well, as it has been for the past 33 years, it is true that america is interested i would like ukraine to be successful, but it was not ukraine was not a priority , it was rather russia, china, the european union and so on

, the situation has now changed radically. aid to ukraine, she is actually ready to support ukraine. well, to the extent that it is necessary for victory, in fact, of course, it is not entirely clear. what is victory? but if the rhetoric itself was not very positive, and since ukraine now plays a key role in eurasia, after all, it is ukraine that russia will win. if it loses, the status of ukraine will radically change . i don't want to say that ukraine will turn into a super power. after all, don't forget that ukraine has and probably has the strongest, best army in europe, not the european continent. and this is already something that ukraine will have to be reckoned with . of course, from an economic point of view, it is more difficult , but at least because ukraine is very

similar, if not absolutely certain to win then it turns into an ally of the right ally of america and europe, and even more so if it becomes a member. and it will become a member of the european union and i believe also nato. in this way, ukraine will turn from such a marginal country that was interesting to one degree or another, it is an important and important fact of international politics, not only america, but also in europe, china and the remnants of the russian federation, and look at one more question, how somehow i drag you into some topics that are not very typical of you in general, but nowhere are you going to do it now in america, experts are all saying that this is already a financial issue, that the united states can transfer to ukraine the confiscated

assets of russian oligarchs, in particular , the famous malafeev is meant such a very russian-returned imperialist like that well, there are already american lawyers who are thinking, after all, the right to private property is inviolable and it is easy to take it away and give it away, it is not the soviet union and not the russian federation, modern where putin is interested in taking it away, giving it back, there are courts, so on and so forth it's similar and it's not an easy way here to take it there to give it away you have to somehow have grounds to confiscate it it's a long process he will file an appeal he will file a cassation it will be looked at again to what extent the machine

is legal in the united states what do you think about it is ready to the extent that there is already a basis, to the extent that there is reflection on this among academic circles, that it is so difficult, and if this is the road to go, then it can be as much as they think about it in general, well, they think about it , so i emphasize again, what about this question? i don’t consider myself an expert at all, if this is there, it is speculative speculation with my string, but i know one thing because i constantly see articles written in different on different american sites where there is a detailed discussion of some kind, of course is not the number one debate but among certain circles it is very important and i am the elements who are people , analysts who argue that yes , it is necessary to do this. it can be done, it must be done and done, and of course there are others who say yes , wait, think about it, it's all much more complicated

and so on, i think that the situation here is a little better, i feel a lot will depend, of course, on exactly when the war will end and on what grounds, if ukraine is true, because now to some extent it is a disc about these assets, well, it is a little abstract or not yet talk about the reconstruction of ukraine itself has been going on from our people for maybe a few months, maybe a few years, and then it will come to a certain end. i think then this question will become more relevant. and then you don't understand dependence. i can imagine, for example, that those russian oligarchs who can be abandoned a certain violation of human rights or which were particularly heinous, their assets will be somewhat easier to confiscate on the basis that it is a criminal element of what others will

say with people who to one degree or another adhered to generally accepted international norms, it will be much more difficult or even impossible for them to throw any violations and it will be possible to leave them alone for at least a certain time . so here, too, you understand this nuance is important and not necessarily necessary. i completely agree with what you said, which means that it will not be an easy process. even if everyone were unanimously in favor of it. even if all the courts and everything and the entire american political community were in favor of it, of course court cases would continue. much longer, because there will be appeals, there will be cassation. as you said, it is difficult to imagine that this film will become

a reality, although it was important , but it is unlikely. there were, and there were sexual acts of protection from the garden. what is this? how does this change something in trump's prospects for the elections, or do they not change anything, improve, worsen, what in general, what kind of echo is coming, what kind of echo is coming from this. now everyone says that trump and the republican party are hiding everything. must look for a new or they say nothing happened what what is happening such moments of special influence - this is a lot and this is proven by the example of the ratings and so on that trump has risen in the last

few weeks and months and to a large extent this is especially because you understand such a sexual issue for many republicans who have so far supported him very actively and almost fanatically. this simply means that he is a reviewer. yes, a man . well, maybe he is a little like that. well, exaggerated already , if it were not for a man. so i think that many of his uh, well, those people who fanatically support it, it won't hurt him, but there are other important moments , this is only one process that has happened, what must happen is the second, which also concerns possible rape. and it is already more difficult, there they can find that he really is, and in this case it will be more difficult even for his fanatics to argue

well, it's just a hypermachu who behaves like that. well, it's more complicated, but the most important thing is that there are two more court cases waiting for him, one in your plan means the capital and the other in the state of george in washington, and he is accused of he suggested to these people who attacked the capitol a few years ago and that he , in other words, is involved in a possible, well, such a theoretical pulse, and here i have reasons to believe that he can be convicted of this . am i wrong, governor george, or about every politician yesterday, he would definitely find him 11,000 more votes

. and this is already a violation of the election rules and laws, it is more complicated. losing court cases may not be fatal, at least to a certain extent, then at least a certain part of his base of the so-called s- will think that it is not known to us that this is a person who should be the president for the second time, well, at least a certain person, a certain part, it will also have a certain influence on you know me republican who even now to a certain extent feels comfortable with trump and don't forget that his opponent in the republican party is the governor of the state of florida, ivan the landing party. trump trump has some 50% he has about 20%, but his people and he himself

is convinced that he can eventually fight trump himself on the basis of the fact that on the one hand he shares approximately the same views as trump, but on the other the parties are not that crazy no i'm that criminal not that controversial and you understand the election is just in november 24th that means a year and a half until then and everything can change in principle so here it is this this court case that ended a week ago it can possibly be such only for the first the first such swallow, and there will be a few more, and then we will see. of course, trump gave the impression that he was irresistible, but american politicians, especially with such scandals , in principle, anything is possible. yes, i am not. thank you very much oleksandr motyl, historian, political scientist

, professor of radgar university. as far as i understand the place and the hero new york thank you all is well and we are as i promised we will go from america to turkey now to the capital of the turkish republic, the city of ankara, where i hope orhan gafarli political scientist expert of the center is waiting for us political studies and i will ask he is a russian-speaking person he and i will speak in russian but we will talk about the elections in turkey, it is a very interesting topic and very important for ukraine today just as they are happening and hello arkhan and even more we understand russian language soon we will not be anymore, well, look at what is happening now, here i will tell you that i listened

to the ukrainians today and listened to what the russian liberals say. let's say so, the experts and there is such a discussion, only they say that when erdogan says that i recognize the results no matter what kind of elections they are, it is necessary to believe erdoğan , and others say that this is what he said, which means that he will falsify what moods in turkey, how can you think that erdoğan wants to do some kind of falsification of today's elections, please, i am approaching this question, eh, increase the police know here that it is nato and nato countries, at least there is electronic democracy - this is how it would be necessary to be a member of nato, to be a european society , a request from society, and here it is in this

society, that is, it has so far preserved e- e 50 years ago, it was a wonderful cry in the principle of electoral democracy, that's why i didn't think that there would be any falsification. well , there could be some district ones , some small ones, and people made 100 per position on the side of the police, that is. it doesn't matter - it's such a small percentage, they won't affect the overall results , presidential and parliamentary results , that's why it 's a tradition in turkey for a hundred years. e electronic eh, some kind of tradition, eh, that is, in turkey, there were so many eh, many people were so pregnant, eh, even during the cold war, here it was respected

in the principle of electronic democracy and observed and carried out, they came and left. - she calmed down a little, of course, until the last day, so to speak, there were very many applications from the country of several parties. that night there was trouble, but now there is no such anxiety . eti democratic started or it will manifest itself it will remain further or it will change archant see but i don't have fresh sociological data, but somewhere in three maybe five days, i read somewhere that the opposition is 5% better than er rdogan recent sociology says

who who has a better chance how how do you see it from ankara , you know, this is the last season of the poll, they showed what there is, how it was , alduard 54 wins the first round, it was that this old guy wins by a goal, but it means that the rest of the questionnaires are showing us что ето and you were many will stay for the second round, that is, uh, both people will not be able to collect, let's say more than 50 + 1 , there is such a thing, let's say, uh, but uh, pred edition, let's say, well, you know from the sociological, but simply they are always at least two or three percent er-е ошибаются we accept that way, that is, in which direction will it be, the dust will be three to one side, the circle will be, or -3 = 2 sides , who

will it be? they show that the probability of the second round is very high in the form of a farm and just a firm большое, that is, but you know the elections, we don't know how people will vote, but i can tell you that for the first time in 20 years , turkey is so big, so let's say, uh, people , so many people, we're going to uh, get elected locally that is, tonight they say that more than 90% will be sajjak eh well, how can you tell already eh, this one is not even going to gather in the cities and vote, that is, there are very large queues, there has not been such a thing in turkey for a long time, and it was shown that for both sides there are risks

, but they just showed us what the company was doing let's take care of the second one, let's look, that is, it is impossible to just guess what will be uh-huh, but uh, it takes the old tour, there is an arhant, look at one more moment, too, social uh , for many years, it was considered that the city is against the verodogan, and the village and the small city of zaya is reprimanded, that is, there istanbul has an anti-erdogan mayor. ankara seems to have an anti-erdogan mayor, that is, big cities don't really like cockroaches. this trend persists, or now we can't say anything about who , what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, layers of society, for whom they will be. голосовать there village city in telegencii and then i understood your question i will answer like this here you see when we speak big cities we have concrete for example from istanbul er-e bursa

izmir ankara how do we say diarbaka it's clear here czde that er-e prochestvovanie vyborov er-e it will appear i lost here plus something like that 50 + something well, i need to take into account here and spend your time there, so let's say it was appositionally there, i collected 53%, but it is necessary to clear that this does not mean that 47% of the votes went somewhere eh, this is that there is, there is, well, there is продуктов последняя профосы and that's how much, let's say the budget, the price is the leading finger or the coalition, let's say anisa , no, you are exactly, and the western black sea region , anatoliy, let's say anatoliy aniseed, well, more cities. as you have already noted there, they just show that 50 plus something like 2.3, the opposition, the opposition

bloc is more, so the prices. well, it is necessary to take into account that the big cities are more than 50% of the economy here , and the population is from the metropolis. how from istanbul , 17 million bankers live there, 7 million. that's it not only big cities, but also with a large population, that is, they will determine , that is, how much the opposition's vote will fall there, or about ruling on parties, that is, that's why it will be seen now and it's already passed, so let's say eh, it's 3-4 years later, he chose a bedroom well of course, the effect will also be how much less cool we could see the worlds, eh, it serves the people, so let's say it is provided, well, there is a problem, eh, this is also, how would the result of this , too, be seen today, eh, that is, or towards the wall, but here is who plus one yes

let's say who has plus one plus two plus three you can see only in the evening, that is, it is impossible to say that there is no missile defense about the government, the father, the rockets are not saved, the questions show that they will not get anything from the parliament, this is also a very important signal, that is, if you spend 40% , they will keep 40 i'll say something like this 43 42 43 это очень большой процент that is, even if today's position is able--it will be able to run on power, how it will govern , accept changes to the legislation, so i don't know how to start a reform with such a large bloc the opposition, that is, you know, here are the results of the election, for example, it will remain in the second round, then vinnytsia will be determined, but the hittite parliament, that is, the people will watch it because we and the paler chose such a thing, people went and voted

for a position holder as a mayor. and now uh, municipal pavlovykh, for example, they voted for the government, it turned out that it was difficult for us with a finger to accept some uh, suffocation, uh, or so to say, climbing up, not being able to fit on a bus there, i don’t know, for water, for gas, that is, uh, she created the problem and the people эту видео что от опозиция что вместе работать, that's why it's on the second round - it will remain here, so let's say a very important determining factor of the parliamentary arithmetic, eh, and also, here's the parity of 30 people, who will fall for whom, yes, and i said, i'll be supported, and who has how much the ministries will take, look, you used this city of gorbakir, i’m talking about the kurds in general, national minorities, they are closer to the road, or

closer to kardagan, as they are chords, you can do something like this who vote for the hdp, so let's say for the main opposition party, well, one has their fingers pressed , at least 10% of the parliament was in the previous elections and now , probably, they are already here in the center of the opposition face of klyshorol a-a but there are certain groups

. let's say so little kustarol and that each vote will also go on the finger tomorrow tolstoy by the finger all the way to anna, that is, they also have a very strong kursk vote in the region, and they also have a coalition that is more conservative, so let's say with a sly bow. who also has the kursk party, let's say at least 30 places, it goes to only you in the points of the region where most of the clubs live, they also support everyone, that is, we see here that if the interest here is in favor of the opposition, 5-7% can the side is edual, that is that is, there is a samovar dugana, too, there are conservation kursk colossus, which, let’s say, you are regiozom with a slant, and it can be the last question, see this

important. it seems to me because istanbul is a very europeanized place. trousers and skirts are different, so there is no such muslim influence, and on the other hand, erdogan is so soft, but muslim, about muslim, there are wives who wear a headscarf, that’s all, that’s if we let's look at it and these circumstances what are the circumstances of turkey turkey turks would like to be more traditionalists more those who are closer to some such muslim circumstances or such people as they live the majority lives in istanbul yes they are muslim yes they go to the relevant institutions muslim but they want to wear skirts some decals, some jeans, drinks beer and does not differ in any way from people in america, in europe, in canada