[000:00:00;00] small victories consist of seizing the initiative, they can give us the opportunity to seize the initiative along the entire front , specifically due to the fact that small victories are shared, because along the entire front, our enemy has the initiative due to the fact that the activity was close to bahmut , so we can now do it again yes , at the expense of those small ones, when i, the initiative will pass to our side, and after that it is possible to carry out more extensive active actions. thank you , colonel, for the conversation. people's deputy of ukraine, friends, we work live on the espresso tv channel, as well as on our youtube and facebook platforms, for those who are currently watching us live on youtube and facebook, please like our video, subscribe to our e-pages on youtube, facebook and other social media networks, we work for you on all platforms

. well, please read our website espresso.tv, we work for you 24 hours a day, seven days a week, the most prompt news from ukraine in the world, as well as front guard, everything is on to our espresso tv website so that you can become a sponsor of our youtube channel. now you will see a qr-code by going to zekim v and you will receive detailed instructions on how to join the esteemed society and our club e youtube on youtube espresso tv e all all detailed information is under this qr - by code, we will be grateful to you for any help, our next guest is a political technologist and the director of the situation modeling agency oleksiy holobutsky p oleksiy good day good health to you

yes i'm not the director but the deputy director well, you'll be the director soon. thank you for joining our broadcast and let's start our conversation with volodymyr zelenskyi's european tour yesterday in germany . he received the charlemagne award and this award is not only for zelenskyi on the ukrainian people, german chancellor offsholz also once assured that the european peoples are in solidarity with ukraine, and putin, who wanted to distract ukrainians from the path to europe, lost, we will hear from laf that it is russia that has brought the european peoples closer than ever before, we are united and in solidarity we stand by ukraine, if vladimir putin putin thought that he could divert the ukrainian nation from its path to europe, then all his

tanks, missiles and drones, thanks to all the things, he only reached 40 years old, oleksiy. how do you perceive this current visit to european capitals by zelenskyi, because in a very short time term, the president of ukraine is trying to attract the support of italy, germany , france. today it is great britain or now it is clear that this is the anti-putin coalition that we have been talking about since the creation of the rammstein format, so that it well, it seems that before the next counteroffensive, it looks like president zelenskyy wants to make sure in the next one that the whole of europe is ready to fight to the end and with vladimir putin, well, this is a very important event . of course, it could not, could not happen

forever, that only world leaders come to ukraine that's why european countries had to make such visits, of course. it's absolutely logical . well, besides that, we really have been waiting for almost one and a half years . the war has been going on for more than a year and three months, and it's becoming more and more common every day. not only of ukraine, but of the entire civilized world, and this is, so to speak, part of this program in order to make sure that this war really looked like the struggle of the civilized world for, well, with the evil empire . you can say the same again with the evil empire.

other points which, of course, can only be discussed in some such meetings. so, what awaits us? well, for us, i don’t know , maybe it has started, maybe it will start , maybe it’s something we don’t know , the general staff and those who specifically deal with it know this. we have a window for a counteroffensive of opportunities, as our western partners say. yes, some say until the end of the summer, some say until the end of the year, but there is a certain window of opportunity during which we must solve, well, serious problems , that is, roughly speaking, to win back our territories , for this we need help, money, weapons. so considering the fact that these are exclusively democratic countries that support us, they need the actualization of this war constantly in their information space, the visit of perhaps one of

the most popular current e-e leaders of the countries , namely zelenskyi yes, he really is with her all the time the world is so to speak. so i am working to actualize this support , because we must understand. so, after all, it is not scholls , no, no, it is not others who personally give weapons, the money is given by taxpayers who want to see, well, certain results of this. - in investments to a certain extent, and apparently some of mr. oleksiy's europeans still discuss the topic of a possible peace between russia and ukraine in one way or another, and schultz said yesterday that ukraine wants peace and talks without the withdrawal of russian troops from the territory of ukraine there can be no peace, let's hear what the federal chancellor of germany said, because it is very important, ukraine is ready for peace, but ukraine

is quite understandable and it is quite rightly demanding that this does not mean some kind of freezing of the war and dictates from russia , it is about imperialist aggressive an attack on ukrainian territory and therefore the peace and security of europe are threatened and blocked because a stronger , more powerful country attacks a weaker one and simply spoils its territory, the plans of the russian president of the village are obvious, you just need to read his e-e texts and listen to what he he says that he believes that ukraine and belarus should become part of russia and an attack on ukraine - this is part of this metalist concept and it is not possible to forcefully change the borders here , there is no doubt that, based on the proposal of the ukrainian president regarding

the possibility of peace, all discussions should revolve around what has be clear that there is this possibility. but russia must withdraw its troops, because without this there is nothing to talk about at all. well, why didn't i mention that russia threatens the members of the european union in this way, in particular the members of the e-e nato and the baltic countries, at the same time, against this background, when the europeans are talking about the fact that there can be no peace without the withdrawal of russian troops from the territory of ukraine to kyiv, tomorrow they are waiting for the representative of china for the political settlement of the war, it has already been announced that the envoy is to arrive tomorrow they saw that this envoy will be in all european countries or in parts of european countries in moscow and

kyiv, but he will not fly to great britain and the united states of america . what is the difference between the peace of china and the peace they are talking about europeans and ukrainians no, formally they do not differ, that is, china also advocates for the territorial integrity of ukraine and advocates that ukraine should be in those borders , which, as it were, in which it has arrived, so to speak, since the moment of its existence in 1991, when it entered the the un and so on, yes. that is, this is this, here they are the only one. the question is how to do it, and of course, china has a very difficult situation . they cannot afford to lose what is american, so

to speak. europe, because it would be so to speak given are the two largest markets for chinese goods, trading partners . so are the countries of the european union and the united states, and in order to look like a poet, europe is ukraine, which does not stand behind the back of its hand, as the americans say. war, they must show some activity . what will you show this activity? will they , as the europeans demand , push putin to stop the war? well, we are already seeing this over time. again, i am talking about a window of opportunity that depends entirely on ukraine, well, entirely from the point of view of what our troops must do in the coming months, and they are already coming out of a situation that will satisfy, for example, ukraine over there, or not so much.

this peaceful peace process will begin. china is interested in russia losing this war absolutely, so to speak, and europe is interested in this war lasting a very long time or being frozen, just like the americans, because again, this is not a solution not a solution to the problem absolutely. everyone understands that it is necessary to somehow solve this problem right away, there are many options , yes. that is, it is the return of the entire territory of ukraine, the return of a part of the territory, and this is a kind of beginning of some kind of peace process regarding the status of those territories that we consider our own, well, that is, there are many more there are many points that, let's say, no one clearly articulates except for ukraine, which wants to return all its territory within the limits of 1991, neither china nor europe, well, different countries, so to speak, yes, they say that it's really a pity

but when the discussion begins there, there are different opinions of experts from different countries and it starts with the fact that, well, with regard to crimea, there should be a different position regarding donbas. that is , it is all a process, but it is still clear that everything depends on the ukrainian army on what will happen well, for example, until the fall of this year, it is clear . well, it is obvious. obviously, in russia, it is quite painful now to accept information about the success of ukrainians in negotiations with europeans, and russian propagandists already have a crisis of genre a now they are again waiting and looking for red lines, after which the same decisive actions with which they frighten the world should come , simonyan assures that no, putin has not defined any such red lines, it is all the matter of the propagandists themselves, we will hear how it all happens in their studios and we will see when

he spoke that's it, and it's a red line. and i'll tell you, he didn't say it, no , he didn't say it, the minister of defense didn't say it, they said that there are red lines. well, what 's hidden under this wording, we can only guess. someone thought that it was a strike there. on the crimean bridge, someone thought that these were terrorist attacks in russia, we don't know what is going on, we are arguing here that they are all fronts, we invented them ourselves, we convinced ourselves that this was the red line , we upset ourselves that it was on the way and nothing happened and we are discussing it for the second hour already in the studios of federal tv channels , well, that is, semenyan herself has already admitted that they invented some kind of formula for these red lines and these red lines are constantly being chewed on the air, and as a result, they they themselves don't understand where there is a line beyond which russia will get some kind of weapon

that they have that they value and saying it's a wunderwaffe , there's something incredible in your opinion, is there a line beyond which russia has crossed which russia is already starting to apply something so incredible that it's just uh, what is there to be afraid of? well, there is a border, but it 's not a territorial border . always about it, it's by the way to me constantly criticized for many years. no, i have always written about it. i do not believe that he considers himself to be some kind of new emperor or that he is gathering russian lands and so on. he simply sees ways to get life-long rule of russia and, unfortunately, ukraine and the war with ukraine

turned out to be at a certain stage such and such a recipe for his life-long rule of russia for the life -long maintenance of power. that's all in georgia , a nato country. it's clear that he's not an idiot , so to speak. ukraine, yes, as such, all the more so, again, a lot of things were built on a false idea of ​​the internal situation in ukraine, i am not even talking about the 22nd year, but am i talking about the 14th year and even before that, and in propaganda well she, well, again, we have to understand that we, especially people who grew up in the soviet union, were born with the soviet idea that everything should be like in the soviet union. yes , putin is building all this, not the soviet union, so to speak

, he is building er, and built a personalist one a dictatorship that is built exclusively on, roughly speaking, verbally possessed, yes, this is a clear description of the former head of this administration, the president, the current speaker of the parliament, in russian. yes, there is putin , there is russia, there is no putin , there is no russia. and prince volodymyr and so on, this is hybridity, this is hybridity, and this is multi-combination. so this is also a plus for putin himself, because to put it bluntly , this is how we say names absolutely correctly he didn't say any of that, what is denazification, what is demilitarization, so what does putin want, what is the purpose of this special military operation, well, who is he

fighting with in general, if you take his last conclusion at the parade, he is with ukraine in general, he is fighting everywhere for by nato countries, that is, there is no clearly formulated, articulated enemy, there are no goals, no deadlines, no ideology, no final goal, nothing, they will form depending on the situation, but today they gave them diarrhea of ​​ukrainians , yes, they shot down planes there, i don’t know the roads, they launched in crimea has done something else, so they will always find an answer. for this, they have 23 years, and before that, the entire history of russia has been vindicating its population, which, to put it bluntly, will believe what they are told because it does not want to think. well, in principle, it does not want to reflect on deeper issues with serious problems. why is he like ukraine

, why so why? that is , we very often analyze based on our monology, and we have to start from the logic and schoolchildren of the regime. exist or have its conditions of existence worsened over the past year and a half year no they have not worsened at all there is absolutely no position at all there is no i.e. the regime is becoming more and more closed in principle what is absolutely at the moment suits putin or has the russian economy collapsed as in yours and in on many other broadcasts, it was told during the last six months and three months that it did not collapse, and it was said that it would collapse in the next year or two. but it could collapse if the world

introduced even tougher sanctions because, well, who else sanctions are even tougher, this is the toughest chance, sanctions that have existed in principle for the entire time of history , well, what, that is, don’t buy oil and gas completely, yes, yes , tomorrow in britain, in germany and all these countries, right-wing populists will come to power because prices will rise for oil and for everything else two to three times yes and it's good that the europeans understand this and it's good that they don't listen to ukrainian experts who every day i understand that it's terrible, it's cynical, but hey , the world, we talk about everything very often in categories of the second world war, yes do the blockade of sea ports, roughly speaking, like germany , yes, disconnect from everything and, in principle, the economy will start there, as they say, the russian economy of everyone. yes, but we live now in a different world, a global world, where it turns out that here it is impossible to do this, especially since it is the largest country in the world

and there are a lot of people from countries nearby that, well, you understand, well, what claims can there be to india, they just stupidly earn huge money on the misfortune of the ukrainian people, yes, it's terrible, but it's true and they have no moral obligation to ukraine they don’t have any at all, it’s just a process, it will be slow, it will be but then again, he is 70, he can die and now we don’t know let’s simplify and we don’t know what’s going on with lukashenka, so he generally seemed even healthier than putin, well, in terms of physical form, he there he plays hockey on the fields, runs there and so on, but now we have been unknown for several days that something is there, that he may have already died

, or maybe at death, and so on. they say that lukashenka has a strong viral infection, according to the information of the representative of the ato cabin from the transit of power , pavla latushka, it is infectious allergic myocarditis, the symptoms of this disease are shortness of breath, malaise, such careers, heartache, moderate pain in the joints . well, if we talk about lukashenka at the parade 9 may near the mausoleum. we saw on the rostrum exactly, from the sick lukashenko, it was clear that he was sick, and how the disease and the end of this disease for lukashenko can be different, how it will affect the situation in belarus, and respectively, and belarus regarding the situation in ukraine and regarding the participation of the belarusian army there in general, and belarus as a state in the russian-ukrainian war, well, the only version

of different versions, one of the versions is found in the fact that he, so to speak, imitates the disease for the east in order to get rid of such there are unpleasant conversations with putin regarding the participation of belarusians in the war, but in any case. well, of course, this is also a personalist dictatorship built on the power, so to speak, of lukashenka himself on his authority, the only thing that is different from putin. he lost this legitimacy. putin did not lose his legitimacy, and putin remains the most popular political figure . therefore, in russia itself, without an alternative. therefore, the situation is very uncertain in belarus and there

may be different, so to speak, with the death and the approach of lukashenko, internal strife will begin, which in one way or another will destabilize belarus and may lead to serious changes belarusians themselves and it can lead to the fact that, let's say, belarus will be completely, well, it is already completely dependent on russia, oh, and that it will become completely dependent, let's say, on russia in all aspects, the more so, again , it is difficult to understand the relationship between putin and lukashenka's personal relationship, because such a relationship is the tyranny of yours, they are very uncharacteristic, very well, realistically, if you take this whole economy of belarus, well, well, these questions will fit in order to simply look at it. if putin wanted , he could stop it, yes, within a month, i already i'm not just saying that he physically could eliminate you, and it's obvious that he doesn't like lukashenko, it's obvious

from their meetings and so on, i'd like to have a person like that who would take him under his visor and do everything. therefore, it's possible that here and the russian trail putin, as we know, is a logistician and he opposes the change of power by some violent means, but simply when the leader of the country dies of what disease is it, in principle, part of his concept , and again, we do not know the plan at the end he may already be the elite around lukashenka, already bought and recruited by the russians. and it may be that they are just waiting for him to leave, and i don’t know, they will appoint some six people from the entourage who, roughly speaking, will be the nominal head of the state, but all of them will be like this, and the more developed ldr of the lpr i don't know whether the dpr is there or not. with what to compare it with south ossetia, it's just more. this is a more

developed version of this kind of dependence on russia. but unlike the southern session or the lpr and the dpr, the belarusians were recognized by the world country, that is, the status of relations will remain independent, nominally it will remain an independent state, because it is necessary for someone to vote for the un in favor of russia and so on, and in fact it will already be dependent. well, you are even now dependent, so what i will say here remains unknown, these are personal issues, there is a huge difference between democratic authoritarian regimes so that on what is this relationship between putin and lukashenka built? well, it must be said that information has appeared that lukashenka will probably be treated by russian doctors worse actually for lukashenka himself, because well, he can simply be treated stupidly, as has happened many

times in the history of the russian state of the russian empire, on this point maxim , we will put an end to our phrasebook on an optimistic note, and i want to thank you for participating in the program. this was oleksiy holobutsky , deputy director of the agency situation modeling, political technologist, and i want to remind you , friends, that we work and speak on platforms in social networks in parallel with our televangelist, in particular on youtube and facebook for those who are currently watching us on youtube and facebook, please like this video so that it is promoted in the trends of e and youtube and facebook, well, subscribe to our social networks, become our e sponsor, a sponsor of the youtube channel espresso, now you will see the qr code by going to with which you will get detailed instructions on how to do it, we will be grateful for any help, read our news on the espresso

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