[000:00:00;00] a week or even earlier . of course not, these are just tactical actions related to the stabilization of the summer front and the creation of prerequisites for the safe departure of our troops, if it is really necessary to withdraw part of the troops from those areas of the bahmut itself where the enemy is currently trying to press it in the technical part of the city, we all laughed at the fact that when the russians came, it was only the big invasion in february 22, and then they were confused in the names of settlements, we had the fact that local citizens and, well , representatives of local communities, they changed the signs with the population, she simply knocked down these signs, and they still had maps

from the 70s. they really did it because they did not know where they were going . the problem is only ordinary privates, then this is not true, because this leader of the wagner gang, prigozhin, wrote a video appeal to the leadership of the armed forces of the russian federation. he said that i urge the leadership of the russian army for as long as possible, at least for a few days, to keep the settlements of sakko and vanseti listening - this is populated areas in the luhansk region, but it is interesting here that sako is ivanzeti in our country, it is in honor of nikolasaka bartholomew vanseti - it is one settlement, not two, not three, it is one. well, i say, i am already waiting for the call to keep villariba and velobatzha well, then, when we talk about this, it is actually a point somewhere 15 km north of bas udar itself

. it is located near salodar, in fact, this is the area that was the most northerly and there in fact before the war, after transcribed by only three persons, i.e. in fact, it is completely empty, it is a constantly violent settlement, and now it is crying out to the enemy to hold the flanks and prevent the capture of the vanzetti church there, although our military russians have captured it, but so far that’s all i didn't visit populated areas. so, in any case, this hysteria of the beautiful woman continues, and i think that the optimal result of this old woman will be that she says that there the russian regular army is shooting the wagners as a result of the fighting in bakhmut, this will be a good result of this stories well, while the russian army is preparing , we hope to shoot the wagnerites or each other, and they are shot by the armed forces of ukraine , in particular, there is a very good dynamic of destroying the enemy's artillery and

air defense systems, we see that may is still 10 days until the end of may has not ended, and the level of destruction has increased significantly, well, in addition to the fact that artillery systems and anti - aircraft systems are being destroyed, they are also being destroyed very actively. let's say in donetsk, in the petrovsky district , a company of russian t 90 tanks was destroyed, which, as they say, were preparing to throw them at the breakthrough on maryinka. well, we are really talking about the dynamics of the enemy's losses in the systems artillery and anti-aircraft defense complex, if you look carefully at this graph, you can see that in may there are such positive indicators when we talk about art systems, 289 per month is absolutely good . regarding anti-aircraft systems, there are different systems here, and it is difficult to clearly define which ones were destroyed but in

any case, we also see that they are being destroyed quite effectively. and anti-aircraft defense and artillery - these are the things that will really hinder the ukrainian army when conducting offensive actions. well, the lion 's share of experts are inclined to believe that this is exactly the components of the so-called operation are related to the formation of the battlefield, that is, the destruction of the centers of gravity or the most vulnerable and important enemy targets precisely at the expense of our e high-precision means of the fourth leria or hypes well, i at least remember one picture of me too, you like her in front of my eyes there is a completely burned out fuel tank s armor is standing after being hit by a ukrainian hypercar, this is well, someone obviously gave it or this and no , in my opinion, the ukrainian vagabond saw him. colleagues collected money for poseidon. i don't know if it's the same poseidon, but it's simple. it speaks very well about its effectiveness. what exactly is the unmanned aerial vehicle poseidon, which i remind you costs

four days. how much is 12 million uah? that's four of us on expresso. 12 million uah . 300,000 12 million uah. this poseidon saw enemy tanks in donetsk and ukrainian humers, having received the coordinates , destroyed a company of enemy tanks, a company of how many there are 10 tanks, there should be 10 to 10 tanks . well, now about the confrontation. as they say, the alien against the predator, well, that's right. because there are predators. exactly, no. by the way, the loop can be considered a predator that hunts russian evil . so, the dagger against the petri is the main topic in the world media in russia, by the way , the developers of the dagger were arrested, well, they say what for what are they there was a lot of talk about russian missile technology somewhere abroad, but we understand because in the kremlin they thought that it was impossible to shoot down petrov with a dagger, and it was a very important confrontation, the americans were very quick to get their heads around it, so far, in fact, knowing for sure in advance that russia is preparing strikes on kiev with these daggers

that we see, and in the pentagon they declared that petre was in the line, that he was only slightly burned by the fire of war, so according to your information, was there a hit or not? publications, where several times referring to her sources , she spoke about the fact that during the extremely effective defense of kyiv, when a patriot shot down six daggers that actually flew with a minimum interval, probably during the destruction of the warhead of the dagger took place there as a fragment of a hit, perhaps in one of the triggers, because even now we do not know what exactly was damaged, but always on the further statements of the spokeswoman of the pentagon, who literally yesterday held a briefing, it was said that the islands also perform their tasks, that is, the damage to me was minimal and in no way affected

the incapacity of the complex. well, today we received not unpleasant information, but realistic information, or when i say that many people say that russia is running out of missiles in russia russia is running out of money, russia is running out of people, er, everything will not end soon, because it is the most, er, the richest country in the world in any, first of all, natural resources , and therefore a lot of money, which the russians have accumulated and how to get chips for their rockets , russians they know. they get them effectively. we hope that this 11th package of sanctions will make it impossible for third countries to trade chips with russia. therefore, russia produces 25 calibers per month, 5 missiles from kander. i understand that iskanderm and two dagger missiles are approximate. 70 rockets per month. well, in one launch, they aimed at us, about 30 rockets, yes, in principle, this is for such three good launches. well, in your opinion , how do they manage to walk?

and it should be enough to replenish the ukrainian stockpile of missiles for the anti -aircraft defense system, this is also on the male and growing, and petriv. well , when we talk about the russian pace of production of the means of attack, this information is from the main intelligence department which you talked about and in general it is actually about 65 missiles per month, these are cruise missiles , namely the kha-101 and the caliber and cruise missile to iskander. if we compared these indicators there , then we can admit that due to such well , uh, accumulation of strength, capabilities uh , compared to about 10 months ago, now russia has increased the production of cruise missiles by about

30%. and in principle these results are sort of significant, but we understand that when we look at the effectiveness of our air defense, when the hit rate is almost close to 100%, and we left the missiles we put down, because here the question is that our algorithms and our density of air defense is such that even these indicators of increase the number of missiles manufactured by the enemy does not affect the situation of the front line or the stability of our society , i hope that sanctions and other measures will slow down the pace of production russian missiles, on the other hand, the supply of new air defense complexes, in addition to the two petri, which we remember that have already arrived in ukraine. this is a new complex , the ones manufactured by france, italy, which can also fight with daggers, so i hope that the help of western partners will continue in compacted, our ancestors were trained, it will be systematic, and not unchanging. well, that’s all . well, it was such a not very pleasant message that russia continues to effectively

produce for itself, well, successfully produce winged and ballistic missiles of various types and now the good thing is that the white house has confirmed that it allows other countries to transfer american f16 fighter jets to ukraine , what does this indicate? well, this news is a continuation , because now there is a g7 summit in japan, and by the way, it is headed there our president, as far as the result is concerned, should have announced that a decision will actually be made to activate the decision to train pilots for f16 fighters of ukrainian fighters, because it was said that we will decide exactly when and how and to what number such will be transferred planes to ukraine, but without details, but we understand that if this question is again in a much smaller format, we categorically remember biden's statement when they will be transferred in the 16th ukraine, we will never say so, whether they will be

transferred or not, and now maybe the bike itself speaks about the fact that pilots will be trained and we have this discussion at the summit of the g7 and in the free alliance similar to the situation with the patriots from abram. it is these planes that we will have the total number of planes that ukraine wants to have there are about 40-50 of them, there are four squadrons, at most, each squadron has 12 planes, and actually there are countries that are already part of this fighter coalition that can transfer these planes, but i think that more are needed the political impetus of the united states, except for one thing, the willingness to start training pilots , well, thank you very much , serhiy zubets told us about the most important events at the front

. thank you, vasyl. freedom life on radio freedom we have already come to the very change the following shots may shock you news from the scene live kamikaze drone attacks political analysis objectively and meaningfully there is no political season exclusive interviews reports from the hottest spots agreed frankly and impartially draw your own conclusions well, what is the picture at the front? serhiy zagorets spoke about this in detail and we will not only talk about it. will it reach saudi arabia, will it not reach, will it be there or will it be online, in any case, there may be

an end to the issue of providing ukraine with f-16 aircraft, we hope that this is the end. it will be yellow-blue, and now you will have an interview which recorded by my colleague yuriy fizer with political scientist and james town foundation researcher janusz bugaisky let's watch it because it's important and interesting greetings my name is yuriy fizer and my guest today is a world-famous person writer columnist historian an employee of the james town foundation, janusz bugaisky, recently, well, in fact, in 2022, he wrote a book, an unsustainable state , instructions for unraveling russia, and he came to ukraine to present this book . about this book about russia, about its unraveling , obviously about ukraine. i will talk to him

today hello google thank you for giving me the opportunity to ask you a few questions with pleasure so my first question is about the title of your new book всё в ukule you called russia a failed state about the term failed russia was failed yet not at the beginning of its formation or did it become so in the process of its existence , because right now we feel the moment when something should happen or should happen or will happen. also suffered a crack as a state, as a tsarist empire, there is a soviet empire, now the federation is on the verge of collapse, i wrote my book even before the full-scale attack of russia on ukraine, so i updated it somewhat

because i believe that the attack on ukraine and victory ukraine is speeding up russia's schedule, but it has long been a state that did not happen and managed to hide its inability throughout its history. russians or muscovites are known to be very good at masking the truth , hiding it, misleading people , spreading propaganda and misinformation about their own system. but if we are talking about today, is it my fault that this is a state that did not happen ? the structure of the institution that is trying to keep it. it is a bad economy that exists under the surface, it is a mass of corruption, especially the elites at all levels. no, it is also not the competence and inability of the military leadership, as we

saw in ukraine in general, it is a combination of factors that make it a failed state . the books you talk about the collapse of russia is it inevitable, that it is already approaching, because i think that it has been launched in many ways, that there is a lot going on underground that we do not see or only see the top, such as the struggle for power which, in my opinion, is becoming more and more acute in moscow, but i am not saying that it will happen. that is how and exactly then i am drawing a scenario of what , in my opinion, will happen when the gap seeps deeper into russian society at one point and evenly everywhere, it will be a gradual process

that may stretch for many years and still there is the most likely scenario the most likely scenario i would call a full-scale explosion, that is, the destruction of institutions, the weakening of power in the center , the reduction of the economy, the destruction of the budget , the reduction of special services, pensions and other payments to the population, riots will occur more often in various regions and republics, there will be a struggle for power in the center and the center will be unable to control the entire country , a crisis will begin that will cover the entire federation , shouldn't there be something or maybe someone who could start this process, you about triggers about triggers in his book, a huge trigger would naturally be the risk of war in ukraine, in other words, the complete loss of the territory

of ukraine, in particular crimea, on which putin is so fixated. from the point of view of legitimacy restoring the so-called russian lands, the loss of crimea will not be the main and almost the only trigram for detemizing the struggle for power, anger in the center of anger, which will spread throughout society, and also another trigram is the return of soldiers from the front with weapons , angry, hungry, unpaid, unemployed and unable to work, and insane regions russia and as a result we will witness violent conflicts in some parts of the country explain why i ask this question because i lived in the soviet union i cannot say that they know these very well people well of course i mean the russians but i know them and to me they look like a sect not religious but political they have their

leader they have a book their converter and they have to live according to what their leader says if it is written in this book and if they don't want to live by these rules, they have a straight path to the exit and they become outsiders , that's what i see in russia, those people who do not agree with putin , they simply leave. to act as moscow would like this, in particular, they want us to think that the population is a mass of sheep who will follow their leader and never rebel . look at russian history, in the village they probably said the same thing or believed the same thing, striving for the west to accept their line and that's it. they had a collapse of the army, then there were many institutions that deployed soldiers . just as i describe, not only the bolshevik coup took place during mass

social unrest, but also civil wars, not only between the whites and the reds, but also with the national republics that wanted to break free, and it is not only about poland, ukraine, finland, etc., but also about tatarstan, the mountainous far eastern and siberian republics, many different peoples in the russian empire wanted to break away when the soviet union collapsed . it didn’t happen, i don’t treat the russian population with condescension now, but it is a much more diverse population than the chicken serves us. yes, they are very diverse, and you wrote about this in your book. there are regions in the russian federation which are not like others where the majority of the non-russian population lives, in your opinion, can they start their separation, it will probably start in the republics. at least i think so

, which feel more confident in the creation of statehood. look at chechnya . kadyrov is very loyal to moscow, but do you think that is why that he likes it so much. no, he is a hypertensive who will switch to nationalism and independence as soon as he stops receiving subsidies from moscow. when he stops being afraid that moscow can suppress him again and also in order not to removed his own people from power together with other clans or other political forces, and in chechnya itself, therefore, believes that the war is considering the option of independence, it would be very interesting if this happened, remember my words. and i see certain correspondences with the young positions that from time to time kadyrov also occupies other places, such as tatarstan, for example, where there is outrage, where the last vestiges of their sovereignty were extinguished, when the president no longer calls himself the president, when conditional laws

limit the use of the tatar language, and in to the recently conducted population census in other republics. i have an undercount of tatars in these republics. anger, the general scale of which we do not yet know . i hope that the cup of patience will overflow and something like this will happen. but is putin weak now? what is he most afraid of? putin speaks . putin's biggest fear is that he might get sick from kovi putin's biggest fear is that he will be deposed because he knows russian history putin's biggest fear is to end up on eternal vacation in sochi or fall out of the window somewhere in moscow or give up the spirit in some other brutal way looking back at their past they kill their leaders pretty brutally remember beria and so on so i think he 's really afraid of that so he's trying to balance all these different segments that's what

he's been doing for years balanced security agencies with intelligence and internal security with these private armies with oligarchs and so on, but the time will come when some faction, perhaps this has already happened , will form and say that this grandfather is leading us in film we have to do something but how long can he still balance well i can't say exactly like that so you reminded me that in 1990 or 89 i was asked when the racing game would be reset in east germany in the german democratic republic and i was giving an interview on some newscast and said it could happen in a week maybe two weeks and you know i was wrong it happened the very next day i was optimistic so we don't know maybe it already happened maybe it will happen it could also

take a lot longer then you will witnesses of the struggle for power, i don't think that they already have a new successor , no, no, i don't think so, but if there is, then there are competitors between them from different groups, and this does not mean that if a successor comes, he will definitely be successful, the next successors are tautology not necessarily successful, i.e. if the military defeats continue and as a result he withdraws his troops and loses the whole of ukraine, and then he can be dismissed or dare he go on an even bigger war, why more mobilization or will the economy be pretended to be a war economy? this can also end in a disaster and he will be forced to resign. therefore, now there will be enormous pressure on putin, and sooner or later this pressure will lead to the fact that he will be dismissed and a replacement will be found for him. do you think that a scenario in which he is removed from power

by the president is possible becomes someone who is not from his close or even distant environment. well, russia will continue to exist as russian, will this problem be that we have already gone beyond this , for example, the democrats and liberal oppositionists, the majority of the russian opposition is abroad, they call to keep putin's russia as a democrat, which, in my opinion, is wishful thinking, how long can a democrat survive in imperial russia, democratization of the empire will not succeed, you either support the empire or dismantle it, and they are no longer able to support the empire with with their available resources, therefore, the only solution after a great military victory will be the complete collapse of the empire, and we ukrainians , together with our allies, will definitely cause this, ukrainians can

help, but so as not to fall into a trap which moscow is setting up, they claim that we are trying to destroy russia, they claim that the us, nato, ukraine - poland is trying to destroy russia, we need to manage the process when they begin to disintegrate so that conflicts from their failure do not spill over the borders, and i think that ukraine should start it before the possibility of emergence refugees from russia itself, it is possible already after the war in ukraine, these russian armed groups will enter ukraine and an armed conflict will take place , this is a frankly bad scenario, well, it is possible in in case we are not ready i remember the lord of the soviet union he actually caught you by surprise the news knew how to deal with him our governments didn't even think it would happen at least we have to be ready for something

and start planning and my last question for today will be about ukraine we all here in ukraine know what our country will be like after victory, but what do people in the west, and you in particular , think about ukraine after the war ukraine has proven itself as a leader in the field of security in europe can you name any other an army that is about to defeat the russian army essentially from scratch because they have spent years undermining your army corrupting your institutions controlling your energy despite all of this despite the fact that they have spent so much on their own militarization you actually defeated that army too have integrated a huge number of nato weapons and operate

them very well in fact maybe better than some nato troops who have never fought which is a leader in the field of security but you also have to prove to your own people such in the region that you can rebuild yourself economically that you have institutions transparency leadership determination and the ability to attract foreign investment to rebuild ukraine your neighbors such as poland can play an important role in this process but you need strong transparent democratic institutions otherwise you will fall behind and not get the help you need in recovery considering what now , will we be able to do this? i think we will . thank you, mr. bugaisky. thank you for agreeing to talk to me. thank you for answering my questions. we had a very interesting conversation. thank you for your book, it is also interesting and i hope that some of the people from russia

that you talked about will read it or at least try to, in fact, some have already read it, mr. petrushev hunted down my book er two weeks ago already, i think everyone in the kremlin has a copy of my books so don't worry about it, a book for them, i really wish they would organize an autograph session for me, one day they will do it , thank you very much for being with us today. with him today we are talking about his latest book and it is very interesting about russia about how it can be destroyed and who will take part in this it was an interesting interesting conversation my

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