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uah 199, call greetings dear tv viewers on the espresso broadcast, the studio program , the event, we will analyze the most important events of this week, in particular, it is about the visit of the chinese special representative of the hui league to kyiv, an extremely important story of ours today's guests are matthew bryza , secretary of state of the united states andriy piontkovsky, a political scientist who is in washington. representative of china will fly to kyiv and then, accordingly, there will be shuttle so-called visits to warsaw, berlin and paris. what do you think might lie in the diplomatic suitcase of the chinese special representative, above all, recently, china

under the leadership of cd-pinna tried to position itself as a peacemaker, we see that he became a mediator in the unexpected agreement between saudi arabia and iran on the normalization of relations a-a and discord, while russia's war in ukraine does not really bring anything good to china, let's recall how important ukraine was an investment object and trading partner for china, receiving millions of dollars of investment within one belt one road initiative, in the end, if you look at the chinese peace initiative, it is not a peace plan at all, but a plan that should lead to china's peace proposal, and this despite the fact that it does not condemn russia's invasion of ukraine, which is bad. the first point was actually the restoration of the territorial integrity of ukraine which is very important for china from the point of view and ivan, therefore, for a number of structural reasons, i think that china really does not

want this illegal war to continue at the expense of mediation in the conclusion of a peace agreement, china wants to increase its own prestige and china seriously want to join this negotiation process. is this a certain imitation, that is, in particular, we are talking about certain tools that china can use in relation to the russian federation itself? situation, it is not entirely correct to call china neutral, because putin and sit-pin announced friendship or partnership without restrictions. in addition, we must not forget that china and russia are the main by the members of the so-called brics group, the group of the largest developing countries, brazil, russia, india, china and south africa

. china is clearly not neutral. i think that china would prefer a cease-fire that would secure the illegally seized ukrainian territories for russia, because china wants to observe the hostilities because it is may be a useful precedent for china regarding taiwan ie the aggressor will be rewarded for military action but in the end we all have to remember that china is governed by its own national interests that do not include the success of russia as a country. china is not interested in it being a successful country and behaving like a transactional country. and how should ukraine behave in the current situation? yes, we understand. we cannot tell china that it is ridiculous to hear your proposals that are not based on your truth. intentions to stop the kremlin, but on the other hand, we understand that ukraine is currently in such a funnel of the great

diplomatic negotiation process. in my opinion, president zelensky is playing this complex diplomatic game with great skill with it follows from your question that pushing china away will cost ukraine very much. china is the second most powerful country in the world. if ukraine, god forbid, neglected china, it could start providing more aid to russia , including weapons. so, in my opinion, the most sensible thing to do now is for kyiv and president zelensky what they are doing is to maximize favorability in europe and in relations with the united states to make european allies and the united states feel guilty for providing huge amounts of weapons but doing it is too slow emphasizing that the long-range radio missile systems of its f16 fighter jets are the most necessary for ukraine's counter-offensive to be successful, whenever it happens, a smart diplomatic strategy

is for kyiv to be friendly to everyone except russia and belarus. our fighters, the fighters of the armed forces of ukraine and the strategic deployment in the crimea , we now understand that the kremlin has lost the war from a strategic point of view, but the war continues and maybe it will continue for a long time, although the kremlin has nothing to do to propose, in particular, it is about the use of some additional options for waging war and , accordingly, how do you assess what is currently happening in the kremlin and around the kremlin , the armed forces of ukraine really seem to have pushed the russian troops against the wall in the mud, they are obviously yielding and we see what absolute chaos reigns at the highest level in russia, prigozhin every day politically and rhetorically attacks defense minister shoigu and all military commanders, threatening to withdraw

his criminal mercenaries, pvk wagner, from bakhmut, and even according to washington post allegedly offers the ukrainian military to tell where the russian troops are so that they become a target for the armed forces of ukraine. this is an act of high treason, which under normal circumstances is punishable by death . putin turns a blind eye to this because he is afraid that his military commanders are getting too much power or because he cannot to control beauty in any case it seems that there is mass disorder around putin and this leads me to believe that he simply does not know what to do putin is stuck in ukraine he cannot win and surrender not only send to the sure death of even more of its soldiers in the hope that the united states and its european allies will become discouraged and stop providing

ukraine with powerful military support in russia there is no real strategy as such there is only putin's personal desire to continue of course we know that the russians support the war in ukraine and it is still possible there speak out against the war when the economic pain that russia is experiencing will change the perception in russian society russians are famous for being able to suffer a lot, but the russian elites are used to a certain standard of living which suddenly disappeared, maybe forever

, so at some point the last drop will fall, which will cause the fragile regime of vladimir putin to fall. which should contain or be based on this peace plan of ukraine and the west, but when do you think it will be possible to force putin to agree to similar demands, and on the other hand, and whether he will be ready, i will not be surprised you answer because it is a victory on the battlefield ukraine, with the support of its friends and future allies, must cut off the russian troops in crimea from the rest of the occupying forces and thus cause very painful military security costs for russia that will force it to seek peace on the terms you have just outlined one nato ally that not so long ago opposed the russian troops on the ground and forced putin to ask for peace is turkey , this happened as we discussed earlier in

northwestern syria and libya. so in when putin suffers a serious defeat on the battlefield, he changes his direction. therefore, this is what must happen now in ukraine , there is no other answer. last weekend, i was at a conference at my native tallinn institute, where an american analyst himself came up with all kinds of excuses. why the war must stop now, what did it mean? a victory for putin in the event of an end to the war, putin will control all the captured territory waiting for the moment to attack again when one of us asked him how to make putin sit down at the negotiating table if not by victory he did not find an answer for ukraine on the battlefield, who are people like him who condescend to putin, hoping that the war can be frozen , that russia will be able to stop the seizure of territory , but this should not happen, and it is ukraine that must prevent this by winning a victory on the battlefield with the help of our decisive support

in any case, we are aware that the kremlin felt that the war had come to their territory , in particular, we are talking about strange explosions, the so-called strange cotton, not just on the territory of the russian federation. we saw the explosions of two of drones over the kremlin, the story is an extremely serious attack, we understand that it is somewhat reminiscent of the story of matyos rust, a german amateur pilot who landed on red square in the late 80s and this had a colossal psychological impact on moscow's military elites and now we have received long-range storm missiles from great britain shadow , the story is extremely serious because until now we have not received american etechens, but great britain has now gone to the evil of the so-called psychological paradigm, it has already happened that when great britain took the first step, then the rest of nato

members, including the united states, also stepped up. remember january, when the united states, and in particular , germany, refused to send its battle tanks to ukraine. great britain still dared to send its challengers, and then an agreement was reached. germany agreed to send its leopards to ukraine. provided that the united states will send their m1abrams as well with longer range missile systems first the united states said no and then eventually sent you their heimers after at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, ukraine begged the united states and its allies to help close the sky and establish a no-fly zone, we all considered such actions provocative, but now kyiv and all of ukraine are protected by the most modern patriot missile systems in the world. thus, there is a pattern that as soon as great britain provides a certain system of weapons, it is eventually joined by the united states

, storm shadow cruise missiles are very powerful, their flight range is about 250 km, in attackams not much more, the range is about 300 km and therefore, i hope that this step of the united kingdom will lead to a change in attitude in washington, that is, that president biden and his national security adviser , jake sullivan, will recognize that providing attacks from and f-16 aircraft is the only way to de-escalate, because it is russia that continues to escalate and the only option to calm down it is a victory on the battlefield , for which ukraine has a special need for longer-range systems and fighter jets, so i feel that the attitude in washington is changing, but the main issue is, of course, that the elections next year are very important for ukraine to achieve sustained and significant success on the battlefield before these elections and before american

politicians , in particular the republican party, include the issue of limiting military aid in the election campaign program . postponed when i listen to the speeches of my former colleagues from european governments , i understand that now they are more determined than ever to help ukraine, this also applies to germany, where the minister of foreign affairs berbok loyally supports ukraine, and president frank-walter strang mayer admitted that he is ashamed of his soft position towards russia during the last decades. yes, we agree with you. this is an extremely significant paradigm shift. in the administration of president biden, well, for me, the key indicators are the supply to us, for example, the supply of etek missile systems and f16 aircraft, well , accordingly, we see that certain debates are ongoing , on the other hand, we understand that the debate is ongoing

in particular, with regard to macro new aid to ukraine, because what we received from the united states is about 46 billion dollars , now it is ending this financial track . well, accordingly, we expect that the united states can make big willful decisions regarding the continuation of aid to us, as i already mentioned i think that the attitude is changing in the direction of providing the usa with f-16 fighters and attack systems, i do n’t know if this decision will be finally adopted , but i think that the administration is moving in this direction when it comes to macroeconomic help everyone in washington understands that ukraine must survive economically, it needs to be rebuilt, there is currently a debate about whether to use the frozen funds of the russian government, which are in various financial accounts around the world, to rebuild ukraine, but when it comes to the lack of macroeconomic support , there are still many fears with regard to the internal

health of the ukrainian government, that is, with regard to transparency and corruption, on the one hand, it is terrible that the head of the supreme court was accused of bribery and removed from office with on the other hand, it is great that this has become known. and perhaps this is a sign that president zelenskyi and his government are serious about the need to cleanse ukraine of the truly soviet legacy of corruption, in particular the misuse of public funds, so i feel that the republicans in washington will certainly insist on further signs of cleansing ukraine of corruption. and strengthening the rule of law before larger sums will be transferred from the american treasury to the ukrainian, which is what the administration is leaning towards in your opinion

president biden, that is, until our victory is accelerated, or does the biden administration consider the war as long-term, and we understand that the amount and speed of providing important resources will depend on this, in particular , it is about long-range systems , for example, about abrams m1 tanks, here the issue of dynamics and pace, the biden administration is completely committed therefore, to do everything possible to help ukraine win, but next year we have big elections in which biden may not win, the next president may be donald trump, who does not hides his intentions, last week he publicly stated that if he is re-elected president, he will end the war in ukraine in 24 hours by bringing president zelenskyi and putin together and forcing them to stop hostilities, of course this will not happen because trump will not be able to do this, but let's imagine that hostilities suddenly are stopped, what will this mean, this will mean that russia receives a reward in the form of a reduction in the war, so the biden administration is ready to continue the war for as long

as it takes, but it is not clear whether american voters are ready for this, well, we understand the story of the turkish elections. soon there will be a second round, president erdogan seems to have won, but we understand that there is not enough support and now we see that the turkish opposition is uniting. i am not a specialist in the special political schedules in the turkish political establishment, i am most interested now how can the situation in the black sea basin change in the event of certain scenarios that may accompany the turkish elections, first of all, i do not think that after the second round of elections there will be any political changes, it has been clear to me for a long time that erdogan will win, he is the most consistent and qualified politician in the history of modern turkey after ataturk. i am not saying that i have a favorite in these elections or that i am somehow involved in them. i am just

observing, i am saying that no one in turkey can how skillful is erdogan to understand the turkish electorate he won all the national elections in which he took part while his opponent lost all of them the opposition chose a weak candidate who lacks charisma the second largest opposition party decided not to nominate his candidate because the leader of this so-called good party or electronic party understood that kemal kilichda rogu will never defeat erdogan , there is no need to wait for changes in politics, turkey will continue to support ukraine militarily and diplomatically, while not imposing sanctions against russia, but acting as a mediator in the grain agreement that will be to continue, however, if kemal kelicdaraglu had won, because one cannot be 100% sure of everything, then i think that he would have continued the

same policy. turkey has such an external policy for structural reasons, it strongly supports the expansion of nato at the expense of ukraine and georgia, the opposition party of the ussr supports this position as well as the territorial integrity and sovereignty of ukraine, and also condemns russia's aggression against ukraine, but at the same time , the economic ties connecting russia and turkey remain unchanged russia is a very important export market for turkey both from the point of view of agriculture and from the point of view of tourism i mean the russian tourist money that goes to the turkish treasury and energy as an important link between russia and turkey hasta nuclear energy because the first nuclear power plant in turkey, a project worth 20 billion euros , was built by atomic energy and will soon start

functioning, so these basic structural realities will not change regardless of who is elected as the president of turkey but it will erdogan and the collective erdogan would be ready to give up power in the event of a loss. i don't know if everything would go into the format of a possible confrontation of this or that, this was also the case in the usa donald trump without any evidence and still claims that the 2020 elections were specified. and last week he said that he will recognize the results of the 2024 elections if he considers them fair, that is, if he wins, but the political climate in turkey is completely different, first of all, erdogan has already said that he will respect the results of the elections they were not, however, the elites surrounding him may resort to certain tricks in the event that the opposition's advantage is insignificant, it may

be court cases or recounts of votes , but it is unlikely that turkish voters will accept this. the best thing in these elections is that of with what enthusiasm the turkish voters participated in them. everything is going on. a record turnout of turkish voters was recorded, namely 88%, for comparison in the united states , 65% is considered a very high turnout at the elections. so, almost 89% of registered voters actually voted in these elections and when i went to different polling stations there were traffic jams because so many people were rushing to the polls, observers from all political parties carefully checked each one for voting, checked the results , made sure that they were counted and counted by them, the results were properly passed on, all this in order to make sure that the results are huge and

the elections are democratic, so the election administration in turkey is at a very high level, on the other hand, the current president of course has huge advantages in terms of media influence and administrative resources for projects such as providing free natural gas for all households for a month or a multiple increase in the minimum wage, which makes the elections not very fair, but the elections in turkey are so free, and stealing them is a very difficult task, so if the difference is not too big, let's say 1% in favor of the opposition, i think erdoğan will have no other choice but to recognize the election results. thank you, mr. posad, for this extremely important analysis on the espresso tv channel. i want to remind our viewers that matthew bryza was currently working for them. of the united states of america, the former director of europe and eurasia in the case of

us national security, our current guest is andrii piontkovsky , a political scientist who is in washington slava to ukraine andriy andreyovych. i congratulate you. the key story is the visit of the chinese special representative of the league to kyiv. in your opinion, what could he lead to the current position of china ? it is not about the declarative position of china , but about the real one. или дальше е-е of ukraine , the sovereignty of ukraine in the dense territory , only the mask killed some show, all the climates of african states are the same thing. well , what kind of book is the friend different from the fact that they are

a representative of the great state? well, maybe the ministers of defense dealt quite politely with the fact that it is very unpleasant with any real services of russia in exchange for peace, it was very tough, it can be only one, it is the plan of the ukrainian panga vlad zelensky , especially since he was twice confirmed by the official statement of the big seven , which is practically already a big eight zelensky assets nothing already before the participation of the session where is takoe 18 october 17 december what vopros with peace in exchange for territory here is closed always well and from the other side we see

how much has world diplomacy revived, that is, the initiatives of the vatican, the initiatives of china, the republic of south africa has joined, now there is simply a lack of initiatives from trinidad and the bahu or, for example, macau, but this means that the kremlin is interested in such things , how much is the church interested in involving , so to speak, additional third parties sides of the negotiators, and what it might have , i don't know the outlines of certain perimeters . the victory over the west was still beginning, the war with the ultimatums of the west is being removed, they are collecting their coins, running out to the line, as i call it, i have jugashvili, the war is over, putin is thinking about his power , his life

, my tea room put pressure on the official position of the g7 in the west, we will not have the same negotiations with putin until he reduces the number of mobile phones , biden clearly said on bely's porch at home, he talks about his meetings with macrons , this position has not changed on the contrary, on the contrary, it is necessary to oblige zelensky’s ego in europe and the supply

of weapons, well, the key story, well, this is a demonstration of the event to supply long-range systems , the british were the first to dare to do it, the storm was still in the swamps , panic, hysteria, they don’t know how to respond they are now trying to attack our civilian objects, our air defense system, with the involvement of american and european technologies, of course , is working on hurray, the system has demonstrated that putin's so-called hypersound is a semi-fake story well, these are not fake stories years , putin used the final successful nuclear blackmail, well, to this question, yes, a decisive answer to putin, it happened in october, it went years, this

is my report to putin, they told me what to do next what are the punishments after that, but i’m just saying, they’ll kill him just for that, and then he’ll say the famous phrase in october of your year . then he asks to undress, but somehow it turned out to be beaten, i have more than one argument left, he is a wife, they will wait for their sentences, which will be handed down in the beginning of the next day, the onset of the ukrainian well, but accordingly, there are kremlin elites and kremlin elites, i think for a long time, when they received a strategic defeat, they received such new questions , how to implement certain

internal russian procedures, but they did not dare to take any of the steps that we were all waiting for. well, the second characteristic moment is extremely characteristic, this putin held a meeting at his next summit, and the key speaker was who, of course, is the minister of agriculture, a little younger , who is said to be the so-called putin's successor, well, we understand it this way. this son of patroshev does not show any extraordinary abilities, but he demonstrates , so to speak, belonging to a certain czech clan. well, during the war , on the eve of large-scale actions on the front line , what does putin do, of course, he meets with leading russian farmers to talk about grain and so on, seasonings so that everyone thinks that the people there in the same bunkers understand that the war is parallel and the main tasks