[000:00:19;00] greetings, dear viewers, on the espresso program, the studio event, we will analyze the most important events of this week, in particular, it is about the visit of the chinese special representative liguey to kyiv, an extremely important story of our guest today , the former adviser to the secretary of state of the united states and andriy piontkovsky , a political scientist who is in washington, our first guest former adviser to the secretary of state of the united states, former director of european and eurasian affairs at the national security council of the united states matthew bryza with us glory to ukraine dear

mr. bray, i would like to invite you to the visit of the special representative of china, li hui, to kyiv, and then, accordingly, there will be shuttle so-called visits to warsaw, berlin, and paris. what do you think might lie in the diplomatic valiste of the chinese special representative? first of all, recently, china under the leadership of cd-pinya tried to position himself as a peacemaker, we see that he became a mediator in an unexpected agreement between saudi arabia and iran on the normalization of relations, while russia's war in ukraine does not really bring china anything good, let's remember how important an investment object and trade partner ukraine was for china, having received millions of dollars of investment as part of the one belt one road initiative, after all, if you look at the chinese peace initiative, it is not a peace plan at all, but a plan that should lead to china's peace proposal and this is despite the fact that

he does not condemn russia's invasion of ukraine, that the bad point was actually the restoration of the territorial integrity of ukraine, which is very important for china from the point of view of ivan. therefore , discounting structural reasons, i think that china really does not want this illegal war to continue at the expense of mediation in the conclusion of a peace agreement. china wants to increase its own prestige. it wants to be included in this negotiation process. is trying to behave neutrally, but what would be the main intentions of china so that it wants to win in the current situation, it is not quite correct to call china neutral because

putin and sit-pin announced friendship or partnership without restrictions. in addition, we must not forget that china and russia are the main members of the so-called brics group, the group of the largest developing countries, brazil , russia, india, china and south africa are clearly not neutral. i think that china gave would prefer a cease-fire that would secure the illegally captured ukrainian territories for russia because china wants to observe hostilities because it can be a useful precedent for china in relation to taiwan, that is, the aggressor will get reward for military actions but in the end we all have to remember that china is guided by its own national interests, which do not include the success of russia as a country. china is not interested in it being a successful country and behaving like a transactional country. and how should ukraine behave in the present we understand the situation, so we can tell

china that it is ridiculous to hear your proposals that are not based on your true intentions to stop the kremlin, but on the other hand, we understand that ukraine is now in such a funnel of the great of the diplomatic negotiation process. in my opinion, president zelensky plays this difficult diplomatic game with great skill . it follows from your question that pushing china away will cost ukraine very much . china is the second most powerful country in the world. if ukraine, god forbid, neglected china, he could start providing more aid to russia. including weapons. so , in my opinion, the most reasonable thing now for kyiv and president zelensky is to do what they are doing to maximize favor in europe and in relations with by the united states to make european allies and the us feel guilty for providing huge amounts of weapons but

doing so too slowly that the long-range radio missile systems of its f16 fighter jets are most necessary for the ukrainian counter-offensive to be successful, whenever it happens , a sensible diplomatic strategy is in order for kyiv to be friendly to everyone except russia and belarus, the kremlin leaned against the wall due to the courage of our soldiers and the strategic deployment of the kremlin now we do not understand that the war was lost by the kremlin from a strategic point of view, but the war is ongoing and it may continue for a long time, although the kremlin has nothing to offer, in particular , it is about the use of some additional options for waging war and, accordingly, how do you assess what is currently happening in the kremlin and around the kremlin are really armed the forces of ukraine seem to have pushed the russian troops against the wall in the bachmut

, they are obviously yielding and we see what an absolute mess reigns at the highest level in russia prigozhyn every day politically and rhetorically attacks minister of defense shoigu and all military commanders, threatening to withdraw his criminal mercenaries, pvk wagner, from bahmout, and even according to washington post allegedly offers the ukrainian military to tell where the russian troops are so that they become a target for the armed forces of ukraine for treason, which under normal circumstances is punishable by death putin turns a blind eye to it because he fears that his military commanders are getting too much power or because he can't control the beauty anyway it seems that there is mass chaos around putin and this leads me to believe that he simply

does not know what to do putin is stuck in ukraine he cannot win and surrender not only sending more of his soldiers to certain death in the hope that the united states and its european allies will become discouraged and stop providing russia provides ukraine with powerful military support , there is no real strategy as such, there is only putin's personal desire to continue, of course we know that the russians support the war in ukraine and it is still possible to speak out there against the war when the economic pain that russia is experiencing will change the perception in russian society russians are famous for being able to suffer a lot, but the russian elites are used to a certain standard of living that suddenly disappeared, possibly forever, so at some point the last drop will fall from which the fragile regime of vladimir putin will fall a key

story the key task is the withdrawal of russian interventionists from our territory and a well-thought-out plan of reparations to compensate us for the huge losses, yes, and obtaining security guarantees by ukraine is so-so the triangle on which this peace plan of ukraine and the west should fit or be based, but when do you think it will be possible to force putin to agree to similar demands, and on the other hand, and will he be ready, i will not surprise you with the answer, because this is a victory on the battlefield of ukraine with the support of its friends and future allies should cut off the russian troops in crimea from the rest of the occupying forces and thus incur very painful military security costs for russia that will force it to seek peace on the terms you have just

outlined its one nato ally that is not long ago confronted the russian troops on the ground and forced putin to ask for peace this is turkey this happened as we discussed earlier in northwest syria and in libya so in cases where putin suffers a serious defeat on the battlefield he changes his direction so this is what has to happen now in ukraine , there is no other answer, last weekend i was at a conference at my native institute in tallinn, where an american analyst himself came up with all sorts of excuses why the war must stop now, which meant victory for putin in the event of an end to the war, putin will control the entire captured territory, waiting for the moment to attack again. when one of us asked him how to make putin sit down at the negotiating table, if not by the victory of ukraine on the battlefield, he did not have an answer, so people like him indulge putin, hoping that the war can be frozen and

that russia will be able to hold back the capture of the territory , but this should not happen and it is ukraine that should prevent this by winning a victory on the battlefield with the help of our decisive support in any case, we are aware that the kremlin felt that the war had come to their territory. in particular, we are talking about strange explosions, the so-called strange cotton, not just on the territory of the russian federation. we saw the explosions of two drones over the kremlin. matyos rust, a german amateur pilot who landed on red square at the end of the 80s, and this had a colossal psychological impact on the moscow military elites. and now we received from velika

britain's long-range missiles storm shadow, the story is extremely serious because we have not yet received american etechens , but great britain has now gone to the breaking of the so-called psychological paradigm, it has already happened that when great britain took the first step, then the rest of the nato members, the united states, remember january when the united states and in particular, germany refused to send its battle tanks to ukraine, great britain nevertheless dared to send its challengers, and then an agreement was reached in the south, germany agreed send your leopards to ukraine on the condition that the united states sends its m1abrams as well with longer range missile systems at first the united states said no and then finally sent you its heimers after the full-scale invasion began ukraine begged the united states and its allies to help close the skies and establish a no-fly zone we all considered such actions to be provocative, but now

the world's most modern petriv missile complexes are protecting kyiv and all of ukraine. thus, there is the pattern is that as soon as great britain provides a certain weapon system , the united states eventually joins it. curtain cruise missiles are very powerful. changes in attitude in washington, i.e. for president biden and his national security advisor jake sullivan to recognize that allowing f16 aircraft to attack is the only way to de-escalate, because this is russia escalation continues and the only option to calm it down is a victory on the battlefield, for which ukraine has a special need for longer-range systems and fighter jets, so i feel that the attitude in washington is changing, but the main issue is, of course, the elections

next year, it is very important for ukraine to achieve sustained and significant success on the field battle before these elections and before american politicians, in particular, the republican party, are leading the issue of limiting the provision of military and ukraine in the election campaign program we have not yet reached this moment and when ukraine will win on the battlefield, he thinks that such debates will be postponed. when i listen to the speeches of my former colleagues from european governments, i understand that now they are more determined than ever to help ukraine. this also applies to germany, where the minister of foreign affairs , verbok, faithfully supports ukraine, and the president , frank-walter sthang mayer admitted that he is ashamed of his soft position towards russia during the last decades, yes , i agree with you. this is an extremely significant paradigm shift, on the other hand, we understand that the position of the united states is key, in particular that

is happening in the administration of president biden, well, for me, the key indicators are the supply to us, for example, the supply of etek missile systems and f16 aircraft , well, accordingly, we see that certain debates are ongoing , on the other hand, we understand that there are ongoing debates , in particular, regarding financial aid to ukraine, because what we received from the united states about 46 billion dollars, now it is ending, this is the financial track. well, accordingly, we expect that the united states can make big voluntary decisions regarding the continuation of assistance to us as i already mentioned, i think that the attitude is changing in the direction of providing the usa with f-16 fighters and attack systems, i do not know whether this decision will be finally adopted, but i think that the administration is moving in this direction when it comes to macroeconomic assistance. everyone in washington understands that ukraine must survive economically it is necessary to rebuild, there is currently a debate

about whether it is worth using the frozen funds of the russian government, which are in various financial accounts around the world , for the restoration of ukraine, but when concerns the lack of macroeconomic support, there are still many fears about the internal health of the ukrainian government, that is, about transparency and corruption, on the one hand, it is terrible that the head of the supreme court was accused of bribery and removed from office, on the other hand, it is wonderful that this became known, and perhaps this is a sign that president zelenskyi and his government are serious about the need to cleanse ukraine of the truly soviet legacy of corruption, in particular the misappropriation of public funds, so i feel that definitely the republicans in washington will insist on further signs of cleaning ukraine from corruption and strengthening the rule of law before larger sums are transferred from the american

treasury to the ukrainian. to what do you think the president biden administration is leaning now, i.e. to the accelerated victory of ours, or does the biden administration consider the war as long-term and from what we understand will depend on the amount and speed of providing important resources, in particular, we are talking about long-range systems and, for example , abrams m1 tanks, here it is a question of dynamics and pace, the biden administration is fully committed to doing everything possible to help ukraine win, but next year we have big elections in which biden may not win, the next president may be donald trump, who does not hide his intentions , last week he publicly stated that if he is re-elected as president, he will end the war in ukraine in 24 hours by bringing president zelensky and putin together and forcing them to stop hostilities, of course this

will not happen because trump will not be able to do it but let's imagine that hostilities suddenly stop, what will this mean, it will mean that russia receives a reward in the form of a reduction in the war, therefore the biden administration is ready to continue the war as long as necessary, but it is not clear whether the american voters are ready for this, well, the story of the turkish elections, we understand that there will be a second round soon president erdoğan seems to have won, but we understand that there is not enough support and now we see that the turkish opposition is uniting. i am not a special specialist in political schedules in the turkish political the establishment, i am most interested in how the situation in the black sea basin can change in the event of certain scenarios that can accompany the turkish elections, first of all, i do not think that after the second round of elections there will be any political changes , it has long been clear to me that erdogan will win, he

is the most consistent and a qualified politician in the history of modern turkey after ataturk. i am not saying that i have a favorite in these elections or that i am somehow involved in them. i am just observing. i am saying that no one in turkey can as skillfully as erdoğan understands the turkish electorate, he won all the national elections in which he participated, while his opponent lost all of them. the party understood that kemal kilicda roğlu will never defeat erdogan. it is not worth waiting for changes in politics. turkey will continue to support

ukraine militarily and diplomatically, but at the same time imposing sanctions against russia, but acting as a mediator in the grain agreement, which will continue, however, if the kemalka lych deregluba could not, because one cannot be 100% sure of everything, then i think he would continue the same policy. turkey has such a foreign policy for structural reasons. resolutely supports the expansion of nato at the expense of ukraine and georgia, the opposition party of the soviet union supports this position as well as the territorial integrity and sovereignty of ukraine and also condemns russia's aggression against ukraine, but at the same time economic ties that connect turkey with russia remain unchanged russia is a very important export market for turkey both from the point of view of agriculture and from the point of view of tourism i mean russian tourist money that goes to the turkish treasury and energy as an important link between russia and

turkey in particular, we are talking about natural gasta nuclear energy, since the first nuclear power plant in turkey, a project worth 20 billion euros, was built by nuclear power and will soon begin to function, so these basic structural realities will not change regardless of whoever will be elected president of turkey but it will be erdogan and the collective erdogan would be ready to give up power in the event of a loss i don't know if everything would turn into the format of a possible one or another confrontation that was also in the usa donald trump without any evidence and still claims that the 2020 elections were specified. and last week he declared that he would recognize the results of the 2024 elections if he considered them fair, that is, if he won , but the political climate in turkey

, first of all, erdoğan already declared that he would respect the results of the elections, which they were not, however the elites surrounding him may resort to certain tricks in the event that the opposition's advantage is insignificant, it may be court cases or recounts of votes, but it is unlikely that turkish voters will put up with this, the best thing in these elections is the enthusiasm with which turkish voters participated in them was recorded a record turnout of turkish voters, namely 88%. for comparison, in the united states , 65% is considered a very high voter turnout. so almost 89% of registered voters actually voted in this election and when i went there were traffic jams at various polling stations because so many people were rushing to the polls observers from all political parties carefully checked each

ballot box checking the results making sure that the results counted and tallied by them were properly passed on all this to make sure that the results were huge and the elections are democratic, so the election administration in turkey is at a very high level, on the other hand, the current president naturally has huge advantages in terms of influence on the media and administrative resources for such projects as providing all households with free natural gas for a month or multiple increases in the minimum wage, which makes the elections not very fair, however, the elections in turkey are so free and stealing them is a difficult task, so if the difference is not too big, let's say 1% in favor of the opposition i think erdogan will have no choice but to accept the results of the elections. thank you, mr. embassy, ​​for

this extremely important analysis on the espresso tv channel. i wish to our viewers to remind that matthew bryce, the secretary of state of the united states of america, the former director of european and eurasian affairs in the case of us national security, now worked for them, our current whistleblower andriy piontkovsky, a political scientist who is in washington. glory to ukraine andriy andriyovych. i congratulate you. what is your opinion that he could lead, what is the current position of china, it is not about the declarative position of china, but about the real one, what is the meaning, and what is the meaning of it?

the first will be three european leaders macaroni tragedy and that this is already a proposal to russia to transfer the sovereignty of ukraine to a dense territory, only the mask killed such this that you have african states is one and the same well, what is the difference between the comrade of which book and the fact that he is the representative of the great state, well, maybe the minister of the last day in kuleb , he finally put it politely because, well , by any chance, it was unpleasant with any of the real ustroy of russia in exchange for peace , it was very hard. the more so that he was twice accepted by the official statement

of the big seven , which is practically already the big eight. china's initiative was joined by the republic of south africa , now there is simply a lack of initiatives by trinidad and bahu or, for example, madagascar, but this means that the kremlin is interested in similar things, how much is the temple interested in involving, so to speak, additional third-party negotiators, and what kind of such , i don't know, outlines of certain perimeters. it is not fought for the victory over the west, you will remember what the war began with the ultimatums of the west, collect your coins

, run the elephant to the line, as i call it, until dzhugashvili, the war is over. it is necessary to have some kind of agreement with the mover to transfer it to his mobile people . well, let's say it's an honorable draw , that 's why i'm so mad. previous no negotiations with putin transmission until he where to look for everything to leave from all the territory of ukraine , this was clearly said by biden on the porch of the white house at the 19th meeting with the macros of this position

, the smell did not change, here is zelensky's newspapers i support it . the visit shows that this determination was decided not to negotiate with putin until they agreed . shadow is in the swamps, there is panic, hysteria, they don't know how to respond, they are now trying to attack our civilian objects, the system of our anti-aircraft defense with the involvement of american and european technologies, of course, is working on the hurray petre system, but they have demonstrated that putin's so-called hypersound is a semi-fake story well, it is not fake, the operating american systems of petriv air ravens can deal with them

, the kremlin has no time left for putin to use fairly successful blackmail but this is the west, and there is a decisive answer to putin . to put this number in a simpler way, they will kill him just for it . and then he uttered the famous phrase ok, have a good year . guests , you are asked to undress, well , it turned out that the cards turned out to be beaten, i have more than one argument left

. accordingly, there are the kremlin elites and the kremlin summer, i think they already understood a long time ago that they received a strategic defeat, so new questions are now how to implement certain internal russian procedures, but they did not dare to take any of the steps that we all have been waiting for well, but the second characteristic moment is extremely characteristic putin held a meeting at his regular summit, and the key speaker was who, of course, is the minister of agriculture , the younger patrokh, who is said to be putin's so-called successor. this is how we understand. this son of patroshev does not show any extraordinary abilities, but he demonstrates, so to speak, belonging to a certain czech clan . well, during the war, on the eve of large-scale operations on the front line, what does putin do, of course, he meets with

leading russian farmers to talk about grain and so on and the people there in the same bunker realized that they had lost the war and the main task that is not now solved is how to preserve their power. they lost the war. well, one direction is to search for a receiver and then replace it. it will be easier to explain to the people well, yes, we fought, they are already working , these seeds must have their own problem, how can they fight with ukraine ? and so on, well, the account or comrade putin made all the same mistakes to ukrainians, questions about it here's a journal of health, they are forced to use usually long-term