[000:00:00;00] in fact, in 2022, he wrote a book, an unsustainable state, instructions for dismantling russia, and he came to ukraine to present this book. about this book about russia, about its dismantling, obviously about ukraine. i will talk to him today. hello google , thank you you a few questions with pleasure so my first question is about the title of your new book всё в ukule you called russia a failed state about the terms failed russia was failed not at the beginning of its formation or did it become so in the process of its existence, because right now we feel the moment when something should happen or should happen or will happen, i said that over the past 30 years the russian federation has proven

that it did not exist as a state from previous iterations, it also suffered a crack as a state, as a tsarist empire, there is the soviet empire, now the federation is on the verge of collapse, i wrote my book even before the full-scale attack of russia on ukraine, so i updated it somewhat because i believe that the attack on ukraine and the victory of ukraine are speeding up the schedule of russia, but it has long been a state that did not happen like this and continued to start its own. today, is it my fault that this

is a state that did not happen ? the structure of the institution that tries to keep it. it is a bad economy that exists under the surface. it is a mass of corruption, especially the elite at all levels. no, it is also not the competence and incapacity of the military leadership, as we saw in ukraine in general. it is a combination of factors that make it a failed state. and also in the title of his book are you talking about the collapse of russia or is it inevitable that it is already approaching because i think that it has been launched in many ways a lot is happening underground what we do not see or see

only the top, such as the struggle for power, which, in my opinion, is getting more and more intense in moscow, but i will not say that it will happen. just like that, and at that moment, i draw a scenario of what, in my opinion, will happen when the gap seeps deeper into russian society at one moment and evenly everywhere it will be a gradual process that may stretch for many years and there is still the most likely scenario, this one with the most likely scenario i would call a full-scale explosion, that is, the destruction of institutions, the weakening of power in the center reduction of the economy, destruction of the budget, reduction of social services, pensions and other payments to the population, riots will occur more often in various regions and republics , there will be a struggle for power in the center and the center will not be able to control the entire country , a crisis will begin that will cover the entire federation, should

there not be something or maybe someone if could start this process , you talk about triggers. yes, i mention triggers in my book, and a huge trigger would naturally be the risk of war in ukraine, in other words, the complete loss of the territory of ukraine, in particular, crimea on which putin is so fixated on. from the point of view of the legitimacy of the so-called russian lands, the loss of crimea will not be the main, but perhaps the only trigram for the legitimization of the struggle for power , anger in the center of anger, which will spread throughout society, and another trigram is the return of soldiers from the front with angry weapons hungry unpaid unemployed disabled and insane regions of russia and as a result we will witness violent conflicts in some

parts of the country do you really think this happened let me explain why i ask this question because i lived in the soviet union, i cannot say that i know these people very well. well, of course, i mean russians, but i know them, and to me they look like a sect, not religious , but political. they have their own leader. they have a book, their constitution, which again their leader wrote, and they must live according to what their leader says and what is written in this book, and if they do not want to live by these rules, they have a straight path to the exit and they become outsiders, this is what i see in russia, those people who do not agree with putin , they simply leave. and those who do not agree a and mr. pi easy. hello, everyone should not act as moscow would like. in particular, they want us to think that the population is a mass of sheep

who blindly follow the leader and never rebel. look at the russian history of the series, they probably said the same thing or believed that just as i wanted the west to accept their line, and yet they had a collapse of the army, i had many institutions that deployed soldiers . exactly as i describe, not only the bolshevik coup took place during mass social unrest, but also civil the war is not only between the whites and the reds, but it is with the national republics that wanted to break free, and it is not only about poland, ukraine, finland and others, but also about tatarstan, the mountainous far eastern and siberian republics. many different peoples in the russian empire wanted to break away when the soviet union collapsed. expected that they would blindly follow the leader, but this did not happen . i do not treat the russian population with condescension now, but it is a much more diverse

population than the government presents to us. so they are very diverse and you wrote about it in your book. in the russian federation , there are regions that are not like others, where mainly non-russian people live, in your opinion, can they start their separation, it will probably start in the republics, at least i think so , which feel more confident in creating statehood in chechnya, kadyrov is very loyal to moscow, but do you think it is because he likes it so much? no, he is a hypertensive who will switch to nationalism and independence as soon as he stops receiving subsidies from moscow. when he stops to be afraid that moscow will be able to suppress him again and also so that he is not removed from vla by his own people together with other clans or other political forces, and in chechnya itself he thinks that he is seriously thinking about the option

of independence, it would be very interesting if this happened, remember my words and i see certain correspondences with the young positions that kadyrov takes from time to time, also in other places such as tatarstan, for example, where there is outrage, where the last sellers of their sovereignty were extinguished when the president no longer calls himself as the president when conditional laws restrict the use of the tatar language and in the recently conducted population census in other republics i see an undercount of tatars in these republics anger is growing, the general scale of which we do not yet know i hope that the cup of patience will overflow and something like this will happen but is putin weak now what is he most afraid of? putin speaks . putin's biggest fear is that

he might get covid. history putin's biggest fear is to be on eternal vacation in sochi or fall out of a window somewhere in moscow or give up the spirit in some other cruel way looking back at their past they kill their leaders quite brutally remember beria and so on so i think he is really afraid of that because he's trying to balance all these different segments that's what he's been doing for years balancing the security agencies with intelligence and homeland security with these private armies with the oligarchs and so on but it will come a time when some faction, perhaps this has already happened, will form and say that this old man is leading us into the abyss and we have to do something, but how long can he balance ? i was asked when the driver would be removed from east

germany in the german democratic republic and i was giving an interview to some news outlet and said it could happen in a week or two weeks and you know i was wrong it happened the very next day i was optimistic set up so we don't know maybe it has already happened maybe it will happen so it can also drag on much longer and then you will witness a power struggle i don't think they already have a new successor no uh no i don't think so but if there is then between they are competitors from different groups, and this does not mean that if a successor comes, he will definitely be successful, the next successors are a tautology, they are not necessarily successful, that is, if military defeats continue and as a result, he withdraws his troops and loses the entire country, and therefore his

may be dismissed, or will he dare to wage an even bigger war, to mobilize even more, or will the economy be turned into a war economy, all of this can also end in disaster and he will be forced to resign. therefore, now putin will be under enormous pressure, and sooner or later this pressure will lead to that he will be dismissed and a replacement will be found for him . do you think it is possible to have a scenario in which he is removed from power, two presidents become someone who is not from his close or even distant circle? well, russia continues to exist as a russian asus, will this be a problem, that we have already gone beyond this, for example, the democrats and liberal oppositionists, the majority of the russian opposition is abroad , they call to preserve putin's russia as a democrat, which, in my opinion, is wishful thinking, how long can a democrat to hold on in imperial russia , to democratize the empire is not a success, you either

support the empire or dismantle it, and they are no longer able to support the empire with their available resources, so the only solution after a great military victory there will be a complete collapse of the empire and we ukrainians, together with our allies, will definitely cause this, ukrainians can help, but so as not to fall into the trap set by moscow, they claim that we are trying to destroy russia, they claim that the usa, nato, ukraine-poland are trying to destroy russia, we need to manage a process when they will begin to disintegrate, just in case the conflicts from their failure do not spill over the borders, and i think that ukraine should start it before the possibility of the appearance of refugees from russia itself it is possible that after the war in ukraine, these russian armed groups will enter ukraine and there will be a transfer

of armed conflict, this is a frankly bad scenario, well, it is possible if we are not ready, i remember the lord of the soviet union, he actually caught you by surprise, you did not know how to deal with him, our governments did not even think that this would happen at least we must be ready for something and start planning actually we in the soviet union were not ready for this either yes that's right this is putin's biggest mistake putin's biggest mistake or the biggest mistake of his parents, well, we know the mistake of his parents well, steak, putin's biggest mistake was that a kdb officer can become the new tsar and lead a great empire, making it successful and a major player in geopolitics. this was his

main main mistake, or can he somehow deal with this, that he has his own vision of something bigger, listen to him at such an age when people no longer change, he will suddenly become a democrat, restorers of democracy , pro-western, those who recognize ukraine as a nation or as a state no, it never was and never will be. look, despite this communist internationalism , there was always russian imperialism under it, and the kdb, which before that was in the nkvd and the chek, survived communism because they were founded and actually came out of the protection of the old russian tsarist secret police as the purpose of which was to eliminate dissidents, to keep russia in a heap and to expand it at the expense of the accession

of other nations, this has not changed if you look at the mentality. yes, unfortunately, the name in your book. you also talk a lot about the term putinism. the verkhovna rada of ukraine recently adopted a new term racism, and our deputies have turned or are actually going to turn to foreign institutions, such as the united nations, the osce , and the european parliament with a request to also accept this term. do you think we will get their support? i can't talk about international institution, what is your opinion, i think it is , and it should be a useful term if people understand what it means, and it needs a little explanation. do you understand it? i think it is a combination of russian fascism

and the racism that was always just now and has become more visible than under the communists . i understand and actually used similar terms many years ago when i talked about what russia is doing not only from the point of view of imperialism but also of assimilation, russification , and the violent removal of anyone who does not want to be russians, what are they doing to ukrainians , but they have done this before, i hope that ukrainians and everyone understands that this is not something new. racism was not invented by putin, do not attribute it to him. rashi has maintained it for many years. generations, if not centuries, it can be traced back to the pereyaslav agreement of the 17th century, when russians began to call ukrainians little russians, muscovites, and then appropriated to themselves the heritage of the kyiv church of religious traditions, etc., such appropriation was invented by russia in the 18th-19th century. so i

want to emphasize that russism still existed to putin but putin is now using it in a pure, aggressive form in front of everyone , absolutely not hiding, answering your question, i would like everyone to understand racism , his racism as it is, to the question of putinism please tell me in more detail what you had in mind when you wrote about this, i use utinism as a general term that means a regime controlled by putin, it is, let's say , more visible than in previous systems eh i mean absolute control in essence russia is a police state that is, during soviet times, you always had the communist party, especially when stalin kept the secret services, the police, under his control because they were afraid that any member

of the special services would use other factions in the communist party to eliminate them and i always kept them at a certain distance and called it simply a police state. i would say that this is the state of the kdb, the kdb is not the police. how do you know this, er, the political structure of the police? about the police as about legal order, but here it is not about law and order, but about political control is one of the elements of putinism, another element is the militarization of society, the cult of the second world war, which they borrowed from the old soviet tradition, turning it into a kind of ideology, and it is also worth mentioning the idea of ​​the russian world, that everyone speaks russian, who was born in any territory where the russian empire once ruled or even received an education. somewhere in moscow or st. petersburg is part of

the russian world and not just. kind of collectivism of orthodoxy, you know russian orthodoxy is also completely appropriated to take on the arms of the state kdbla church under communism, clergymen were used as collaborators but not as weapons against enemies abroad or for the involvement of, say, other countries, the best example for me is how they used the orthodox church to attract the heart and serbian nationalists to the russian world, so there are elements of putinism that, in my opinion , existed before, but under putin they were combined into a new combination. and where is putin, although i they like to use and may stop using such wording because it gives putin too much honor, even though stalin was a mass murderer and yet

an entire ideology of stalinism has been dedicated to him, let's move on to ukraine so, ukraine after the war. we all know that it will be a completely different country than it was before. one day it will become a member of the european union and join all european institutions . but will russia stop looking at ukraine as its younger brother ? there is a browser of younger brothers or if the youngest brothers who betrayed the nation bohuslav on foot of poland or austria on the other deeply rooted in the russian system

of education religion state policy this the russian narrative has been spreading for a long time to educate the russian people of muscovites so that they understand that ukraine is a separate identity, a separate state, ukraine has a separate history, has an absolute existence as an equal state with what is left of russia, ukraine can of course play a role in this, using it to its advantage that speak russian and remember it is our advantage use it to your advantage why don't many people in europe stop learning russian over the centuries because they consider it a language

occupiers, i can understand it in ukraine, but there will always be people who can speak russian so that you can better inform russians about what they should know, what facts they should know about themselves and in a different way. and by the way, my book is being translated into russian and we hope now spread as much as possible, not necessarily physically, which is more difficult, but via the internet is the main thing, and i do not travel in russian, wherever they are sold abroad, there are russians with whom i have contacts, who read and then translate not only into russian, but also into buryat or caucasian language, but now they will have access to a book in russian that they can read and use in russia through their contacts , russians are also very savvy on the internet, they will be able to get a book that will be freely available on the internet, i was not going

to ask about it, but since you have already started to close ask about whatever they started talking about, don't you think that the collapse of russia can be started by those people you just mentioned, those who live abroad, because in my opinion at least something should start and happen inside russia, not necessarily but they can make a huge contribution, all of them are much larger, they continue to grow, there is a movement both outside the country and some , let's say, underground organizations inside russia, since it is still dangerous to act openly, there are groups that arise in different russian regions in different russian republics, and many of them have contacts with those who are in exile now, i am not referring to the so-called liberal opposition in russia, i am talking about those who want the disintegration of russia, so i would not

underestimate these people, i am often asked a where are the leaders of this new revolution listen and do you remember lech avalanche until august 1981 no no i remember him because i lived in western ukraine and even watched polish tv if you watched polish tv you can't help but know who he was but before i say do you know who ljavolenza was before august 1981, no because very few people even in poland knew about him. he was active in the free trade union underground and i want to say that the revolutionary situation throws out leaders who will be known then by everyone, that's why we should not to say where the leaders are, among other things, in certain cases. i mention this in my book, it may happen that local governors will be faced with a choice: to follow moscow, which is leading the country to the bottom economically and militarily, or to follow its people

, who say can we break with the kremlin. can we have our own state? can you do something for us? i think they will face such a choice as they once did in the soviet union. everyone chose the path of independence, you smiled when you mentioned the russian liberal opposition, why because i don't take them seriously, i'm not saying they are bad people, no, there are many good russians, many good russian oppositionists, but they are not effective russian oppositionists, that's why they are the problem prisons i think they are very brave my colleague karamerza is very brave and comes from a very brave family navalny is also brave although i do not always agree with many of his

statements about russia, especially about crimea and so on and also about the north caucasus in the past, but the majority of oppositionists abroad so that they return back. like lenin from finland. about the bomb wagon, and the germans don't really want it, so i guess it won't happen because the opposition does not have enough support in the country and is not sufficiently united it is easier to achieve greater unity in the regions than at the central level because people will have more different models of what system we want to establish who will control what processes will be, what terms and the like lasbugaivskyi my last question for today will be about ukraine. we all here in ukraine know what our country will be like after victory, but what do people in the west, and you in particular , think about ukraine after the war? ukraine

has proven itself as a leader in the field of security in europe. can you name any other army that is going to defeat a russian army basically from scratch because they have spent years undermining your army corrupting your institutions controlling your energy despite all this despite the fact that they spent so much on their own militarization you actually beat this army also integrated a huge number of nato weapons and operate them very well in fact maybe better than some nato troops who have never fought that you are a leader in security but you also have to prove to your own people such in the region that you can restore yourself economically that you have institutions, transparency, determination of the leadership and the ability to attract foreign investments

to rebuild ukraine, your neighbors such as poland can play an important role in this process but you need strong transparent democratic institutions otherwise you will fall behind and not get the help you need in the recovery considering what you see now will we succeed in doing this i think we will succeed thank you mr. bugaisky thank you for agreeing to talk to me thank you for the answers to my question, we had a very interesting conversation. thank you for your book, it is also interesting and i hope that some of the people from russia that you talked about will read it or at least try to, in fact, some have already read it, mr. petrushev hunted my book er two weeks ago already i think everyone in the kremlin has a copy of my book so don't worry about it the book is for them so i wish they would organize an autograph session for me someday

they will do that thank you very much for coming today with us it was janusz bugaivskyi, an interesting person, a writer, a columnist, a tv presenter, the author of 22 books, and we talked with him today about his latest book and very interestingly about russia, about how it can be destroyed and who will take part in this, it was an interesting, interesting conversation my name is yuri fizer. see you soon. this is spotlight ukraine. today in the edition, russia continues to bombard kyiv in order to find out the location of the skinjal or patriot air defense systems. what and with what was shot down in kyiv? will ukraine receive zelensky's eurotour ? will ukraine receive new fighter jets? army, we congratulate the fakes of russian propaganda, everything is spotty

ukraine, don't miss bakhmut under control, the commander of the ground forces oleksandr siske said , the defense forces continue offensive actions on on the flanks near bakhmut, the syrian says now our defenders control the outskirts of the city , the importance of its defense does not lose its meaning in common with the commanders of the syrian, planned further actions and strategy in detail, it is yours when they answer the second. glory is the answer. injections from