[000:00:00;00] this character you mentioned went from an ordinary criminal to a war criminal, and this is the only status you have today, and if he causes any illusions there, or i don’t know who can nurture such illusions, so that he can allegedly have some kind of political future in russia let's see, we can still discuss here the question of whether russia has a political future at all and what transformations the political regime in russia will experience, but this is the subject of another conversation , but even in the conditions of the existing political of the regime e-e, well, the consonants are only a tool, most of all, it is not the instrumentation itself , putin’s tool, the tool of the russian state, the tool of the russian political regime, which does the dirty work

of which it is not a pity, well, which are expendable tools that are not self-sufficient, if it were self-sufficient, it would i wouldn't shout, i wouldn't throw tantrums about the fact that he was provided with some kind of weapons, equipment, and because there are kits or not . russia's problem is that their army has turned into a criminal hotbed of convicts and scum, well, it's their choice, but i repeat , no, i don't have any wagner, there's no beauty , the russian army is what it is and it consists of many different formations , in particular, such an outright criminal bandit e a criminal terrorist group, which wagner was recognized as in many countries of the world, that's all, that is, but they are not self-sufficient, and even more so , they lack political tools for that, uh, well

, everything, starting from uh, money and ending with the banal ability to obtain the necessary tools for conducting hostilities, he is not expendable at all. no, not significant, mr. valentin, briefly i want you to answer the question of how far russia can now go in its provocations against the background of the latest news regarding the provision of fighter jets to ukraine in 16 more more international support for our state, i understand the term provocation in the context of a full-scale war that russia is waging against ukraine well, i do not consider the destruction of the civilian population and the destruction of civilian infrastructure a provocation and that is

war crimes and they will use this tool as long as they have the necessary tools . everything is possible so that ukraine increases its ability to defend itself, these are two tasks. i think the zelenskyi congress and solving provocations provocations is what they did here until february 24 last year, although in principle, what kind of provocations can there be when they actually occupied part of the territory of ukraine? back in 2014 , yes. at the initial stage, several dozen f16 fighter jets can be transferred to ukraine, according to air force spokesman yuriy ignat, the transfer of these planes to kyiv is an impetus on the way to ukraine's victory

. he also says that the exact number of planes that ukraine will receive now it will be made public that f16 fighters will be provided to protect the sky. ukraine asked the world from the first months of a full-scale invasion, but the shift happened only in the last days until the usa , which is a fighter manufacturer, believed that it was inappropriate to hand over f16 because of its high cost . after all, it would be expensive to maintain them to the point that the pentagon feared that until the russians will get american technologies, including radio electronics and radar equipment, they also feared that ukraine would be able to strike the territory russia now all fears have been dispelled and the world is preparing to send f16 fighter jets to ukraine, they do not specify exactly how many in terms of quantity, of course no one will transfer these planes one by one, these planes will be transferred by units, aviation units, it is at least a squadron in our version - it is 12+ planes from western partners, the squadron has more up to 18 planes volodymyr fesenko

, a political scientist , please contact us. such a decision what we have now i think that the main reason is the active offensive diplomacy of ukraine, the activity of the president of ukraine volodymyr zelenskyi, history is repeating itself, which was shocking, something similar . -e on the transition to the western e-e artillery shells then there was a similar decision on the ppu in the fall . last year, we all still remember how at the beginning

of the current year the epic with tanks and the formation of the tank coalition also had a similar story. how everything in 16 was initially categorically no, this escalation of the war is not possible and now they also said it was expensive and it would be an escalation, i ventured to assume that in addition to the activity of president zelenskyi and our diplomacy, because we pressed our friends and partners to this decision, well , for about six months, since the end of last year , this discussion has been going on like this finally there is a result uh, but i think that another reason worked. the beginning of the election campaign in the usa is gradually approaching. it seems to me that uh, the white house

, the biden administration, they understand that now we need to help ukraine, we need to increase the military potential of ukraine, if the war drags on, uh, then it will not work in favor of the current administration so i think it worked here uh in the end there are domestic american political interests uh because they previously sorry just an interesting point you made i want to expand on it a bit that is after uh a significant diplomatic defeat in the middle east, and we remember. yes, when the white house was simply a-a in an emergency mode , i'm not afraid of this word, most western countries were forced to react and evacuate their populations, their diplomatic missions, er, now the success of ukraine, this success of the white house in international politics in the international

diplomacy and this once again shows how strong the west, including the leader of the democratic world, current president joe biden, is in relation to the main autocracy of europe, this is russia. so, that is, all these parallels with the cold war are also possible that is, there are two of these moments. well, i don't think it's about the fact that the defeats in the middle east worked. well, if you mean the situation that was in afghanistan. well , this stage has already been passed. it was even before the beginning of the current big war in russia against ukraine. no, i i mean, the white house, the biden administration, used a strategy of gradually pressing russia step by step so that russia lost this war , but imperceptibly lost, that was their strategy, in principle, it is a fairly rational strategy, it is not, not quite corresponds to our interests because our

people are dying in the war during its prolongation, but the states and the west as a whole had an understanding that ukraine should be helped so that ukraine can endure and win this war. russia and the emergence of the risks of a nuclear war, these two positions worked at the same time. with russia, it was faster and more qualitative, because in the united states the primaries start already in the fall, the election campaign begins , and russia clearly wants to drag out the war until the presidential elections, so you understand , the cold war is hot for the west, it

is also relevant because, even if it is mediated , it is really a confrontation with authoritarian russia and threats to security both in europe and the whole world, it is imperceptible for whom and how to do so for the sake of what is necessary to press russia in the current war so that they themselves do not notice their defeat so that if the war developed very quickly, if russia became a bet, then there could be a risk of using nuclear weapons, and in order to avoid such a risk, the white house chose the attack strategy of slowly pressing russia , slowly losing russia in this war, but

when they see that, after all, eh the war is developing too slowly and it is necessary in the end to speed up the pressure on russia, in particular to speed up aid to ukraine well, then they make the necessary decisions and on tanks they made a decision in january, but now on the f-16 i think that they will agree a little more and on long-range types of weapons not only so that we can hit the enemy within our territory, war is war so that we can deter the enemy, we must also hit the enemy on the border territory, that is, outside the borders of ukraine why can they hit us and we cannot hit their territories, how to explain it again, this is the second statement about the collision, but we are at war, not the usa or western countries, they only help us, so i think

that what is happening are the stereotypes that the western elites have. well, it is very good that they are in the end understand what is needed in this war be more decisive, more powerful, otherwise russia will not be defeated. and where further from determination, i will quote your post on facebook, you write there was a tank coalition, a coalition of fighter jets is being formed now, i wonder what the next coalition in support of ukraine will be, what kind of volodymyr two options to answer i specifically left the intrigue well let people think for themselves and make proposals, in my opinion , there are two options, the first option is a coalition in support of ukraine's membership in nato in july , specifically, and nato of freedom and ukraine, i want to receive from our partners a specific the answer is not about us becoming nato members right now while the current war is going on, unfortunately this is impossible again because the west does not

want a direct military confrontation with russia , but immediately after the end of the war it will be necessary to speed up this movement; the engagement between us and nato should be announced, and the joining, if you can say so, will take place after the war . this is a long-range weapon. here, too , we have the first acquisitions of long-range missiles, but this is more of a conditional medium-range missile. range and we need the range to be longer because the enemy needs to be defeated and hit in the rear because they are attacking us from their territory i mean missile attacks air attacks and in order for us to neutralize these attacks we need to attack in the territory bodies but i'm sorry for now

what is the taboo, in particular for the f-16, president joe biden said that zelensky assured me , i am quoting biden for certain me that the f-16 will be used only on the territory of ukraine . i will remind you that it was a year ago taboo on anti-aircraft defenses, no patriots, we were not talking about swamps, but tanks, i will remind you in december. last year, when president zelensky visited, it was a triumphal visit to washington, but when the president will be 16 , there was also a taboo. well, we are gradually overcoming these taboos step by step and not only us as a result of the active offensive diplomacy of president zelenskyi, well, the entire ukrainian diplomacy , but on the other hand, this is also the understanding of our partners that we must move on in order to

win, we must cross each time. that is because of these taboos. yes, there is a taboo today. by the way very important, and this was emphasized by our american partners and the bidens, sullivan, the assistant to president biden for national security . they said that crimea is ukraine. a step in order for us to be able to neutralize the attacks of the russians, e.e., the air attacks of the russians against ukraine must be beaten away from valuable bases, yes , otherwise these attacks will continue. this is my active point of view, i am not limited by the official protocol, therefore, i express my forecast for the future as well, mr. fesenko, the logic in this is because, well, we remember the damage to one of the aircraft of the strategic aviation of the same series at the nearest airfields to ukraine, which forced them to move either to

the north or to the east and they are now covering thousands of kilometers in order to reach the borders of, say, the caspian sea and strike at ukraine, and this just helps us, international analysts say that this is perhaps one of the greatest achievements at this stage of the war, because we we know that if these planes are raised in the air, most likely it is not for training , it is not their resource . it is important in international diplomacy to talk behind closed doors ma tete-a-tete we have seen some cadres cadres with a decision-maker for example such a warm warm meeting and discussion what do you think zelensky will return to ukraine with because from europe, it looks like he brought the aviation coalition, is it the beginning or official

announcement, and from japan, what can be, well, it was in japan that the issue of providing ukraine with f16 was finally resolved. there was a prelude, and there were just visits of president zelensky to europe, in particular great britain just after president zelensky's visit to great britain, the prime minister of great britain made a decision at a meeting with his colleague from the netherlands. he said that yes , now we are already starting the training of ukrainian pilots. this was such an announcement and the final japan's decision was made. i think that this week is precisely the combination of these visits about me, president zelenskyi, and then his such a very quick, unexpected and very productive visit to japan. and on the way, there was a speech on the very wagon of the arab

states, this is evidence that the main the gain is f16, but what is important at the same time and we are currently working at the highest level of active direct diplomacy with the most influential countries in the world, this happened just as well in japan , first in europe with four leading countries zelensky first met with the four countries of the g7 in europe. i think that was when the idea most likely arose that for the two full ones, it was necessary to actively work there directly, in particular with president biden, with the leaders of the other g7 countries , in the end it worked, but still one achievement is the beginning of active work with the countries of the global south and participation in the summit of the league of arab states, allegedly this is not our territory there, russia actively worked there, they are not our friends

, i will say frankly, but they are not enemies, well, except syria yes, and we need to conduct an active dialogue with them. well, in japan, there is an active meeting with the leader of india, indonesia, and brazil. yes, i think that this is also very important for our interests, so we are strengthening our positions with the offensive of ukrainian diplomacy. well, the next goal was announced. in japan, it is necessary to hold a peace summit, this is what is needed for the formation of a new architecture of international security already in the future after the end of the current great war, yes, mr. fesenko , thank you for your analysis of the situation that unfolds around ukraine and how we actually work in the international arena. volodymyr fesenko, a political scientist, was with us at a time when the countries with the largest economies

were talking about supporting ukraine and how to influence the russian federation. in this , ilya is not skadovsky, economist, head of the analytical direction of the ants network, ilya . congratulations, i congratulate you. this is what we see now . what diagnosis did you make for the russian economy? because effective sanctions have worked since at the end of winter, so around the end of february, it’s just for oil, ah, but we see that in the russian federation there are even ways to build missiles, that is, they are components that the west finds, and this is also an element of how russia circumvents the sanctions imposed by the west or even the civilized world on in your opinion, this country is like this now with the russian economy, what is happening to it well, as a matter of fact , the russian economy is currently on

such artificial respiration, namely due to the expenses of the state, their state of the russian budget, funds are poured into the defense industry, various orders are made accordingly, and in this way it is supported in terms of their economic growth, that is, the fall did not occur in the amounts that they are, but they cannot be maintained for so long. why because the main filler of their budget is usually there were taxes on oil and gas. as you correctly pointed out, at the end of last year , restrictions on oil began to apply, and accordingly, in february of this year, restrictions on oil began to apply. products, gas products, they actually independently sought to freeze europe, stopped its deliveries, as a result, today they are carried out in a very limited amount, and

therefore little money comes to the state budget, but the costs are large, the costs are justified by the fact that they are actually carrying out military aggression, they make orders and so on well, we can already see it now. i'm sorry, i don't remember exactly the numbers, but as of the first quarter in russia, there are more expenses than they laid on the whole year of the budget deficit is yes. that is, we can understand that in the first quarter they spent more than, more precisely, the difference in expenses is more than they, er, laid down for the whole year, we can talk about the fact that this amount doubles , triples, or does it not work as an arithmetic progression well, first of all, in four months they have already exceeded their annual plan for the deficit of the state budget, that is, they planned two and nine, now they have three and four trillion

rubles of the deficit of the state budget, this is the first moment, so a little bit there was a certain situation it is possible that it will not deteriorate at such a rate. however, the trend will continue, and taking into account the amount of funds that they have in the national welfare fund , by the end of this year, this fund will be used up, and the part that can be disposed of accordingly will actually be spent and therefore in the future already by 2024, russia will not be able, accordingly, to make all the payments it made from the russian budget , or the freezing of wages, the dismissal of employees working in the budget sector

limitation of financing, freezing of capital investments, lack of aid, direct economic aid to various industries, and this will of course lead to the fact that they actually, well, let's just say , i'm just going to be here on a case that will constantly twist, that is, it will get worse and worse, this one got worse, so next year they will definitely face a disaster, or can they they will somehow help this economic fall, this catastrophe. do you think it is inevitable? well, in fact , there are no internal reserves, that is, they do not have the possibility of external borrowing, borrowing, their trade is limited, sanctions are being strengthened, those schemes that they created in the form of parallel imports are being closed, using third countries in order to supply various components, and so on, respectively, the situation for them will only worsen, the only thing that on me, but i do not understand why this is possible

and it could happen to china, but even china does not feel well enough now, however, it could pour part of some funds into the russian economy and thus keep her notebook will be there for not one year, but for example three years, but today china understands that such steps will lead to the fact that it will lose promising european and american markets for itself, and in this case their economic situation will significantly deteriorate . by the way, for pragmatic reasons, china will not to help russia in such volumes , of course, to a certain extent, he trades, leaves his cars instead of those that left, but in no case will this save the russian economy, you said that russia will crash salaries, in particular for state employees, but we understand that the military part is a priority for them

, that's right. they are trying to do it so that you understand why they are the same, we know a large part of the wagnerites took it there, it is just a completely defenseless part of the population from a legal point of view in order to promise to say that there will be some payments, but i'm sorry , if you send a person there to die, of course this is not compensation in the form of loss of health - it is, accordingly, all the payments that were charged to the person there during the stay directly in these e-e on the territory of ukraine they conducted and carried out military operations , so it is possible not to pay them , because they turned to the prisoners to fight, this also shows that they are not able to finance the war in the volumes in which it is necessary in order for them to be sufficiently incompetent. then let's talk about the pro-russian

anti-aircraft missile system, because it's also a steal. billion dollars for the first year of a full-scale invasion, i.e., approximately 10 billion per month. forbes published calculations. $115 billion is a third of all revenues of the russian budget for 2021. the amount includes only the direct costs of the war and does not take into account the economic depletion from sanctions. 36 billion dollars for the year of the war , the salary of the military is almost 25 billion, and the amount of compensation that the government of the aggressor country must pay to the dead and wounded even exceeds the amount of the salary is almost 30 billion dollars, in addition to this, the armed forces destroyed almost 25 billion dollars of russian equipment , in particular

, disposed of. in a closed cycle, it can produce machines for war to a certain extent, that is, in other words , it can be stopped altogether even as a result of e-e sanctions, but at the same time, for example, the production of tanks requires special bearings, these special bearings are produced by only a few countries in the world, they left the russian market and, paradoxically, you do not supply a part there , you manage to get it in the form of contraband , try to buy another part in china, but they are of much lower quality, as a result, accordingly , it is less durable and less quality regarding the use of appropriate weapons further, then if i talk about precision weapons , a variety of things are used, and these semiconductors and processors and these semiconductors and processes for today

day is also not supplied in russia, so you have to extract all the semiconductors from there through some household devices, use the eyes of these weapons, or buy them in some other way of low quality from the whale, and accordingly, it also reduces the accuracy accordingly, and so on. so, in this way that they are certain of course, they have the opportunity to produce it, but it is definitely not in the quantities that are necessary to successfully wage war. at the same time, for example , they can calmly produce shells, this is a point that is not very good for us pleasant, i.e. they can continue shelling ukrainian territories accordingly, they also have the opportunity to manufacture their own kalashnikov assault rifles , i.e. small arms, there are no problems here, there are no foreign components, but any high-precision weapons, e.e., missiles, etc., they cannot be manufactured without e.g. foreign components if the west properly blocks all

these supplies, then of course in this case, well , russia will actually be left with only its kalashnikov assault rifles and it will simply be difficult to fight properly p ilya thank you, ilya nesudovskyi, economist and head of the analytical direction of the aans network. and friends, before we pass the floor to our information service , we ask you to pay attention to the map of air alarms, we see that it is spreading now with the regions, in particular , donetsk, kharkiv , dnipropetrovsk, zaporizhia, kherson , mykolaiv, kirovohrad, poltava, sumy , chernihiv, kyiv, zhytomyr, vinnytsia and odesa regions are now turning red, now there is an air alarm sounding there, we once again ask our viewers not to shoot on video and that better not to publish any videos with damage or with the work of anti-aircraft defense, and we also know that information has appeared that explosions were heard in the dnipro, we are waiting for official