[000:00:00;00] i thought there was a huge discussion, some people believe that all these national formations, uh, lutsnuti, will really run away from russia, but they say that this cannot be, and there is a huge discussion here to somehow clarify the positions, let's listen to this conversation between mr. yuriy feeder and mr. janusz bugaisky, you and my name is yuriy fizar, and today my guest is a world-famous person, a writer , columnist, historian, an employee of the james town foundation, janusz bugaisky, recently, well, in fact, in 2022, he wrote a book a capable state instructions for dismantling russia and that is to present this book he came to ukraine about this book about russia about its dismantling obviously about ukraine i

will talk to him today hello google thank you for giving me the opportunity to ask you a few questions with pleasure so my first question is about the title of your new book vsø в ukule, you called russia an unsustainable state about the terms unsustainable russia was unsustainable not at the beginning of its formation or did it become so in the process of its existence, because right now we will feel the moment when something should happen or should happen or is about to happen, i would say that over the past 30 years, the russian federation has proven that it did not exist as a state in previous iterations, it also suffered a crack as a state , as the tsarist empire is the soviet empire, now the federation is on the brink collapse, i wrote my book even before the full-scale attack of russia on

ukraine, so i updated it somewhat because i believe that the attack on ukraine and the victory of ukraine accelerate the schedule of russia, but it has long been a state that did not happen and during their time they managed to hide their inability, as you know, russians or muscovites are very good at masking the truth, hiding it, misleading people , spreading propaganda and misinformation about their own system . fold people hust fold does not exist such a single person or a separate segment of society by default the fault lies with the structure of the state, it is the structure of the institution that tries

to keep it this is a bad economy that exists under on the surface it is a lot of corruption, especially the elites at all levels, for me it is also not the competence and inability of the military leadership , as we saw in ukraine, in general, it is a combination of factors that make it a failed state , the book, are you talking about the collapse of russia, is it inevitable, that it is already approaching, because i think that about it has been launched in many ways , there is a lot going on underground that we do not see or see only the top, such as the struggle for power , which, in my opinion, is becoming more and more intense in moscow, but i do not say that this will happen exactly and that's when i draw a scenario of what, in my opinion, will happen when the gap seeps deeper into russian society at one point

and evenly everywhere, it will be a gradual process that may stretch for many years, and there is still the most likely scenario, this one with the most likely scenario i would called a full-scale explosion, that is, the destruction of institutions, the weakening of power in the center , the reduction of the economy, the destruction of the budget , the reduction of social services, pensions and other payments to the population, there will be riots in different regions and republics, there would be a struggle for power in the center and the center would be unable to control the entire country, a crisis would begin that would cover the entire federation , shouldn't there be something or maybe someone who could start this process ? would be the loss of the war in ukraine

, in other words, the complete loss of the territory of ukraine, in particular crimea, on which putin is so fixated. etymization of the power struggle, anger in the center of anger that will spread throughout society, and another trigram is the return of soldiers from the front with weapons , angry, hungry, unpaid, unemployed, unable to work, and crazy people will return to many regions of russia and as a result, we will witness violent conflicts in some parts countries do you really think that this will happen i will explain why i ask this question because i lived in the soviet union i cannot say know these people very well of course i mean the russians but i know them and to me they look like a sect not religious but

political they have their leader they have a book their constitution - and they have to live according to what their leader says what is written in this book and if they they do not want to live by these rules, they have a straight path to the exit and they become outsiders, this is what i see in russia, those people who do not agree with putin , they simply leave. and those who do not agree , but remain in the country, are punished and yet they remain, no action should be taken as i wanted b this moscow, in particular, they want us to think that the population is a mass of sheep who will follow their leader and never rebel, and look at the old russian history , they probably said the same thing or believed the same thing, striving for the west to accept their line, and yet in the collapse of the army happened to them, there were many institutions that deployed soldiers

. exactly as i describe, not only the bolshevik coup took place during mass social unrest, there were also civil wars not only between the whites and the reds, but also with the national republics that wanted to break free, and it is not only about poland, ukraine, finland, etc., but also about tatarstan, the mountainous far eastern and siberian republics. this happened, i do not treat the russian population with condescension now, but it is a much more diverse population than the government presents to us. yes, they are very diverse, and you wrote about it in in his book, there are regions in the russian federation that are not like others, where the non-russian population lives, in your opinion, can

they start their secession? it will probably start in the republics. at least i think so , which feel more confident in the creation of statehood in chechnya. kadyrov is very loyal to moscow but do you think it is because he likes it so much? no, he is a hypertensive who will switch to nationalism and independence as soon as he stops receiving subsidies from moscow. when he stops to be afraid that moscow can suppress him again and also so that he is not removed from power by his own people together with other clans or other political forces, and in chechnya itself, therefore , believes that the war is considering the option of independence, it would be very interesting if this happened, remember my words and i see certain correspondences with the young positions that kadyrov takes from time to time as well as in other places such as tatarstan, for example, there is indignation where the last glimmers of their

sovereignty have been extinguished when the president no longer calls himself as the president when conditional laws restrict the use of the tatar language and in the recently conducted population census in other republics i see an undercount of tatars in these republics anger is growing, the general scale of which we do not yet know i hope that the cup of patience will overflow and something like this will happen but is putin weak now what is he most afraid of? he spied gas . putin's biggest fear is that he might get sick from kovi. putin's biggest fear is that he will be deposed because he knows russian history. putin's biggest fear is to end up on eternal vacation in sochi or fall out of a window somewhere in moscow or give up the spirit in some other cruel way looking back at their past they kill their leaders pretty brutally remember beria and so on so i think he is

really afraid of that that's why he trying to balance all these different segments that's what he's been doing for years balancing the security agencies with the intelligence and the internal security with these private armies with the oligarchs and so on but there will come a time when some faction maybe it's already happened will be formed and will say that this old man is leading us into the abyss, we have to do something, but how long can he balance? well, i can't say exactly like that. so you reminded me that in 1990 or in 1989, i was asked when the goniker would be dropped in east germany in german democratic republic and i was giving an interview to some news outlet and said it could happen in a week maybe two weeks and you know i was wrong it happened the very next day i was optimistic so we don't know maybe it already

happened maybe it will happen it can also drag on much longer and then you will witness a struggle for power, i don't think they already have a new successor, no, no, i don't think so, but if there is, then there are competitors between them from different groups, and this does not mean that if a successor comes, he the next successors will definitely be successful, a tautology, they are not necessarily successful, that is, it may not last long if the military defeats continue and as a result , he will withdraw his troops and lose the entire country, and therefore he may be sent into retirement, or will he dare to wage an even bigger war for another more mobilization or will the economy be turned into a war economy, all this can also end in a disaster and he will be forced to resign. therefore, now there will be enormous pressure on putin, and sooner or later this pressure will lead to the fact that he will be dismissed and a replacement will be found for him. what do you

think? a possible scenario in which he is removed from power and someone not from his close or even distant circle becomes president. well, russia will continue to exist as a russian ace. will this be a problem that we have already gone beyond this, for example, the democrats and liberal oppositionists, the majority of the russian opposition is abroad, they call for keeping putin’s russia as a democrat, which, in my opinion, is wishful thinking, how long can a democrat survive in imperial russia , democratizing the empire is not a success, you either support the empire or dismantle it, and they no longer able to support the empire with their available resources, therefore, the only solution after a great military victory will be the complete collapse of the empire, and we ukrainians

, together with our allies, definitely let's cause this, the ukrainians can help, but so as not to fall into the trap set by moscow , they claim that we are trying to destroy russia, they claim that the usa, nato, ukraine - poland are trying to destroy russia, we need to manage the process when they begin to disintegrate so that conflicts do not spill over from their failure across the borders and i think that ukraine should start preparing for the possibility of the appearance of refugees from russia itself. it is possible that after the war in ukraine these russian armed groups will enter ukraine and there will be an armed conflict this is a downright bad scenario well it is possible if we are not ready i remember the lord of the soviet union he actually caught you by surprise the news knew how to deal with him

our governments didn't even think it would happen at least we should be ready for we in the soviet union weren't ready for that either . that's right. that's what putin's biggest mistake was. putin's biggest mistake or his parents' biggest mistake? we know steak putin's biggest mistake was believing that a kdb officer can become the new tsar and lead a great empire making it successful and a major player in geopolitics this was his main main mistake with this deal with it he has his own vision of something bigger listen he is at such an age when people already they do not change, he will suddenly become

a democrat, to the restorers of the democrats , to the westerners , to those who recognize ukraine as a nation or as a state. russian imperialism and the kdb, which before that was the nkvd and the cheka, survived communism because they were founded and actually came out of the protection of the old russian tsarist secret police whose purpose was to eliminate dissidents, keep russia in a heap and expand it at the expense of joining other peoples, that's all nothing has changed if you look at the mentality. unfortunately

, the name is in your book. you also talk a lot about the term putinism. foreign institutions and such as the united nations , the osce, the european parliament with a request to also adopt this term. do you think we will receive their support ? i cannot speak about international institutions . what is your opinion? means he needs a little explanation . do you understand him? i think that this is a combination of russian fascism and racism, which was always simple, now it has become more noticeable than during communist times. i understand and actually used similar terms many years ago when i spoke about what russia is doing not only from the point of view of imperialism but also of assimilation

, russification, violent removal of anyone who does not want to be russian, what they are doing with ukrainians , but they did this before, i hope that ukrainians and everyone understands that this is not racism is something new, putin didn’t invent it, don’t attribute it to him, rashi maintained it for many generations, if not centuries, it can be traced back to the pereyaslav agreement of the 17th century, when the russians began to call ukrainians little russians, muscovites, and then appropriated the heritage of the kyiv church of religious traditions, etc., such appropriation was invented by russia in the 18-19th century. yes, i want to emphasize that russism existed even before putin. but putin is now using it in its pure, aggressive form in front of everyone , absolutely without hiding. answering your question, i wanted so that everyone would understand racism

, its racism as it is, to the question about putinism. please tell me in more detail what you had in mind when you wrote about putinism. i use it as a general term that means regime that is controlled by putin and we must try than in the previous systems eh i mean absolute control in essence russia is a police state that is during soviet times you always had the communist party especially when stalin kept the police under his control because they were afraid that any employee of the special service use other factions in the communist party to eliminate them and always kept them at a certain distance. call it simply a police state. i would say that this is

the state of the kdb. the kdb is not the police. as you know this is a political structure. about the police as about legal order, but here it is not about law and order, but about political control. this is one of the elements of putinism, another element is the militarization of society, the cult of the second world war, which they borrowed from the old soviet tradition, turning it into a kind of ideology, and it is also worth mentioning the idea of ​​the russian world, that everyone who speaks russian, who was born on any territory of the russian empire , or even received the world somewhere in muscovite st. petersburg of this part of the russian world and not just .

clerics were used as collaborators, but not as a weapon against enemies abroad or to attract, say, other countries, the best example for me is how they used the orthodox church to attract serbia and serbian nationalists to the russian world your attention, therefore, there are elements of putinism that, in my opinion, existed before, but under putin they were combined into a new combination. a mass murderer and yet they have dedicated to him an entire ideology of stalinism let's move on to ukraine so ukraine after the war we all know that it will be a completely different country than the one it was before. one day it will become

a member of the european union and join of all european institutions. but will russia, even a decolonized and defragmented world, stop looking at ukraine as its younger brother , younger brothers, or if not younger brothers, the nation, because there is a pedestrian in poland, the time of austria, what else is deeply rooted in the russian education system, religion, state policy this russian narrative has been spread for a long time to teach the russian people of muscovites so that they understand that ukraine is

a separate identity, a separate state, ukraine has an absolute existence as an equal state with what is left of russia, the country can certainly play a role in this by using to your advantage what you say in russian and remember it is our advantage use use it to your advantage why didn't many people in europe stop studying for centuries the russian language because they consider it the language of the customers , i can understand it in ukraine, but there will always be people who can speak russian so that you can better inform russians about what they should know, which facts they should know about themselves and other things. and by the way, my book is being translated into russian and we hope now to spread it as much as possible, not necessarily physically, which is more difficult, but

through the internet there is a difference abroad. there are russians with whom we have contacts who read and then translate the wrong thing that in russian, even in borets or the caucasian language, but now they will have access to a book in russian that they can read and use in russia through their contacts , russians are also very savvy on the internet, they will be able to get a book that will be available for free access to the internet, i was not going to ask about it, but since you have already started to dream about asking about anything, you started talking about it, do you not think that the collapse of russia can be started by those people you just mentioned, those who live abroad, because

in my opinion at least something has to start and take place inside russia, in what way is not necessary, but they can make a huge contribution, all of them are much larger , they continue to grow, there is a movement both outside the country and some, let's say , underground organizations inside russia since it is still dangerous to act openly, there are groups emerging in different russian regions in different russian republics, and many of them have contacts with those who are in exile now, i do not mean the so-called liberal opposition in russia, i am talking about those who want the disintegration of russia, so i i would not underestimate these people, i am often asked: where are the leaders of this new revolution? listen , do you remember lech avalanche until august 1981? no, i remember him because i lived in western ukraine and even watched polish

television if you watched polish. television, you can't help but know who he was, but before i say, do you know who lihvalensa was before august 1981, no, because very few people even in poland knew about him. he was active in the free trade union underground, and i want to say that the revolutionary situation throws out the leaders, about whom then everyone will know, so we should not talk about where the leaders are, among other things, in certain cases i mention this in my book , it may happen that local governors will be faced with the choice of whether to follow moscow, which is leading the country to a pit in the economic and in the military plan, should we follow our people who say, can we break with the kremlin, can we have our own state, can you do something for us, i think they will be faced with such a choice as they once were in the soviet union, if you remember then, many were imprisoned until did not understand that the winner was yeltsin and gorbachev, in the end they all chose the path of independence, you smiled

when you mentioned the russian liberal position, why because i do not take them seriously, i am not saying that they are bad people, no, there are many good russians, many good ones russian oppositionists but they are not effective russian oppositionists that's the problem they are either in prison i think they are very brave my colleague kamerza is very brave and comes from a very brave family navalny is also brave although i don't always agree with many of his statements about russia especially the crimea and so on , as well as about the north caucasus in the past, but most of the oppositionists abroad and we do not see that they returned back. like lenin from finland

with a bomb wagon, but the germans are not so i want to, but i think this will not happen because the opposition does not have enough support in the country and there is not enough unity. it is easier to achieve greater unity in the regions than at the central level because people will have more different models of which system. we want to establish who will control what processes will be. terms and similar bugaevo my last question for today will be about ukraine. we all here in ukraine know what our country will be like after victory, but what do people in the west, and you in particular, think about ukraine in the post-war period ukraine has established itself as a security leader in europe can you name any other army that will defeat the russian army essentially from scratch because they spent years undermining your army

corrupting your institutions controlling your energy, despite all this, despite the fact that they spent so much on their own militarization, you actually defeated this armed with a huge number of nato weapons and operate them very well, in fact, it is possible better than some nato troops who have never fought, that you are a leader in the field of security, but you also have to prove to your own people that you can restore yourself economically, that you have institutions, transparency , the determination of the leadership, the ability to attract foreign investment, rebuild ukraine, your neighbors are like that like poland can play an important role in this process but you need strong transparent democratic institutions otherwise you will fall behind and not get

the help you need in recovery considering that you see now if we can do it i think we can thank you mr. bugaisky thank you for agreeing to talk with me thank you for the answers to my questions we had a very interesting conversation thank you for your book it is also interesting and i hope that some of the people from russia that you talked about will read it or at least try to, in fact, some have already read it mr. petrushev hunted down my book two weeks ago already, i think everyone in the kremlin has a copy of my book so don't worry about it, i have it for them, i wish they would they organized an autograph session for me, someday they will do it, thank you very much for being with us today. it was janusz bugaisky, uh, an interesting person, a writer, columnist, tv presenter, author of 22 books, and we talked with him today about his last book and very interestingly about russia, about

how it may fall apart. and who will take part in this? it was an interesting, interesting conversation. my name is yuriy fizer. see you in ukraine at 7:00 p.m. and for your attention . news release on the espresso tv channel in the studio . iryna koval welcomes all viewers and we start with operational information from of the general staff, our defenders repulsed 13 enemy attacks during the day, all of them fell only on marinka, the russians continue to advance in three directions , the occupiers are spending their main efforts on the complete capture of the donetsk and luhansk regions, in particular, the battles took place in the direction of bakhmut, western