[000:00:00;00] briquette, we must do everything possible to protect everyone's life both in the rear and at the front, that's why we stick together, help our soldiers , believe in the armed forces and day by day we are getting closer to victory. glory to ukraine and before the press conference , our army is preparing for an important offensive, and maybe it is already conducting a review to a significant increase in the number of destroyed important targets in the depth of enemy defenses, in turn , the russian volunteer corps carries out raid liberation actions on the territory of russia itself, and the kremlin itself, like the fascist reich in the second world war without being able to demonstrate victories on the battlefield resorts to missile terror the enemy does not stop missile and drone attacks on ukraine and on our capital these are only individual fragments of such a combat mosaic this week and how all these events will affect

the more general picture when it comes to passage we will talk about war in the next edition of our military program with leading experts and military specialists. my name is serhiy zgorets. i am the director of the information consulting company defect express, which currently works between the espresso team and now in we are getting it mykhailo samus is the head of the international energy organization new-yo, a politician of kherson network, deputy director of the center for research of the army , conversion and disarmament. mykhailo i congratulate you, i am glad to see and hear you. i congratulate you, i am glad to see you. and you outlined for our viewers the general picture that is now being compiled in the format of our he from the russian federation and through the prism of the desire of the enemy's capabilities and mainly regarding

the capabilities of the potential of our armed forces on battlefield well, this is really a very interesting situation when in fact, let's say for several weeks, our friends and enemies have been expecting a ukrainian offensive and , accordingly, they are forming their strategies based on their expectations and their information policy . they correctly said that the russians don't really know what to do now , because they are resorting to missile terror , obviously trying to pressure and psychologically and trying to load, as they say , to exhaust ukrainian air defense and anti-missile defense, and possibly trying to interfere the logistics of the ukrainian armed forces from the point of view of the provision of western equipment, that is, for them now, for the russians, it is now very important to decide when the ukrainian

offensive will be, where it will be, if it will be at all, and what to do next, because with this expectation of the ukrainian offensive, the russians have generally lost e- it's not like a strategic initiative . but it seems to me that there is some impulse on the battlefield , that is, they announced that they took bakhmut . although they did not do it, the wagnerites are now leaving bakhmut and entering there forces, but how does the information go, the content, in fact, all this is very difficult for them, because the ukrainian armed forces created a very successful tactical situation the day before when they control the ukrainian forces control the dominant heights, control the tactical situation in principle, carry out fire control, and in these conditions, of course , the wagnerites and it is very difficult to enter regularly and this, in principle, creates a situation when the kremlin should obviously show some other

successes on the front. the kremlin that putin demands a-a intensification of hostilities in the marlin direction of avdiivsk in order to demonstrate at least some successes of the russian army. well, and against the background of the fact that every night and every day , unrecognizable aircraft are flying over the border cities of russia and not so much with ukraine it is not clear which drones are going on raid missions. let's say that the russian volunteer corps of other forces in the border areas are evacuating russian citizens, so the situation is really difficult for the kremlin. in fact, it is very interesting that in no one raised the question of russia. and why does putin not introduce martial law in russia at all, because what is happening is what i called , for example, drone strikes and raids

on russian territory. this is obviously an act of greece, and according to russian legislation , the supreme commander should have announced it -e martial law and introduce other actions in accordance with the law on the defense of the russian federation, but this is not done, not even air sirens are turned on, because putin really does not know what to do, because if to admit that this is a war to admit that the russian federation did not just carry out such a light special military operation for itself, but got involved in a war that threatens russian citizens and at the same time and for some reason , these red lines have already been crossed, and in reality, russia is not doing anything, not the same what the famous medvedev said or what putin said that if there is a threat to the national security of russia, then everyone will see how it will all happen and the whole world will fall, the whole world will die, but in reality this did not happen

. and why is martial law not being carried out on the territory of russia, is it a lack of opportunities or some kind of internal political calculations because we have spoken several times about the fact that the enemy should call for mobilization because in fact there are not enough forces, then they were not done , then there is such an urgent need even for an outside observer that we need something in the mask do not do, the question arises. why do you have an explanation for these procrastinating actions of your brother? well, here you can only explain psychologically. he is always difficult to make decisions and always er very difficult to admit his mistakes , i think he never admits them and this is the main problem, that is, if he now starts to act according to the algorithm of what the defense law requires, that is, to declare martial law,

to contact the federal assemblies and include this algorithm to carry out mobilization and so on. well, then he admits that he made a huge mistake because he dragged russia, which was bathed in money, which had very good prospects from the point of view of further development, or should we honestly admit that what for until february 24, our western partners calmly traded gas, oil and other electronic goods with russia and, in principle, are not going to lose that profile, now russia is in a completely different state, economic problems are just beginning, but if he also declares martial law, he will admit that he was wrong when he started the war against ukraine, well, it can really become some kind of problem for his political status, although, for example, i have the impression that it is precisely the political project of this wagner group that is being implemented and it is being implemented

by the administration of president putin in order to prepare a kind of, let's say, a system for absorbing protest sentiments , well, that is, if you imagine that now something will really go wrong and the ukrainians will continue to expand their opportunities to influence the territory of russia, in fact, you can do this to recognize as a rather probable scenario the uh, protest moods. what is another project that expresses this with complete virkin there are his loose patriots in this protest, he us these protest moods are not liberal let's say the public and just these there may be quite a lot of twisted patriots, well, i would say a few tens of percent, it is difficult to talk about any exact numbers here, and i think that this project is beautiful for us could play just as a system for absorbing these protesting moods in order to prevent a really uncontrolled riot in russia, and prigozhin will control it and guide it in the right direction . it is possible even at the regional level to go there

to destroy or where to somehow gain respect for officials and so on, that is, there will be such a release of a couple at the regional level, it is possible allow and why are they actually not using it now? i mean the war scenario , again, they are afraid that the process of these enraged patriots can go uncontrolled as an option for the channeling of such protest sentiments to the russian federation , it was said earlier that it is actually decorated, the kovalchuk brothers stand there the ideological and financial foundations lie precisely in the hands of these people, and then there is the question of another direction of the sewers connected with the dudaevites with er, with the kadyrivites

, rather, in fact, yes, that is, literally, this conflict that became public. yesterday, it was something like that. because the people of kadirov there raised their voice there means that he is like that there are arrows for the handsome man to find out what he should do in your opinion, is this a sign that when we said that there would still be a clan struggle for order in the russian federation, what is this begins is this again actually a controlled channelized process of two groups, not over which there are people who will actually balance the prevailing moods in the russian environment in your evaluations? i think that these are different projects that are controlled again at the tactical level e- e fsb or e-e game and so on. that is, well, of course, all this at the tactical or , let's say, operational level, even happens through the special services, obviously, but at the strategic

level, of course, all these threads reach out to people from putin's entourage. i am sure that and kadyrov is controlled by people from putin's entourage and prigozhin, well. trade union bitterness. there are no problems or questions here at all. but again, the nature of these two projects of prigozhin and kadyrov seems to me to be a little different, that is, kadyrov is a regional baron. he has own private army and in principle, under certain conditions, it can become a threat to russian territorial integrity, i.e. i am sure that as soon as some e-e. let's say this between moscow and grozny e. internal processes will begin in chechnya. it is unknown where kadyrov will be. kadyrov understood this, that is, i mean that chechnya has its own plans , its own family groups who hate kadyrov , who consider him a traitor. well, this is

really a traitor who led to the tragedy of the chechen people, and that is, kadyrov himself understands that his government rests exclusively on the money and influence of putin and the kremlin, if this influence and money disappear, kadyrov can be removed very quickly and very interesting processes will begin in the next few months, therefore kadyrov can perform any tasks, including he can to carry out the tasks of other influential groups who are trying to act out some of their scenarios, including in the kremlin and here . one more such important aspect, because in fact, you absolutely correctly said who is behind the beauty, there are people who are actually now managing the kovalchuks. well, even more patrushev and what does wagner group do, well, it's really nice, it's a pr person , it's a frontman, but what does wagner really do, it realizes the geographical interests of russia, i.e. ukraine is one direction and it's not

the most successful here. let's say, projects like it turned out for wagner, but for example, africa, syria, where eh well, especially africa, where wagner wagner group and this clique of oligarchs, they really now ensure the presence of the geopolitical presence of russia on this continent, and there, squeezing out france, eh , playing with the united states and so on, that is, creating in fact, it is a power resource that promotes the geometric interests of the kremlin, and this cannot be compared with the tick-tock army that kadyrov has, and everyone understands the real status of kadyrov, again, i repeat, he believes chechnya themselves are traitors, that's why here, for example, i would say that this is the last one, this frog, gadyukin, as it is called between consonants , kadyrom, it is possible that it is an attempt to promote the kadyrovs, because for some reason, remember the kadyrovs, for some reason, literally in the last week

, some videos began to appear. with the maps they show there, we will go to kryvyi rih right now, these incomprehensible messages make me happy . what are they going to storm? units of the gendarmerie rather than stormtroopers, that is, it seems to me that this is again a struggle of groups, but i think kadyrov's role here is overestimated, that is, after all, now the main project of the kremlin is beautiful. well, then the question arises about one more group - this is actually the military. yes there is shoigu there and gerasimov in the place of these people, i tell you. now without the chikadyrivs or wagners who killed in both, i wish they would just be ground down and there would be no such irritants of their superiors , but for some reason they have now gone into the shadows, and maybe not even went into the shadow, that's it

the military group that it now provides influence on the situation against the background of those challenges that are now quite serious for the russian army, well, the military here has its own history, we know how generals and officers were selected, how careers were made. it is still being done in russia, that is, not here mind is not looked at professionally - professional qualities, of course, by devotion, by readiness to carry out any orders, including , let's say, the material sphere, that is, to steal and spray the budget. we saw, for example, when there were drone strikes on the rublevka there is a very wonderful list of mansions and estates, four of which seem to belong to, for example, a healthy person who is so humble , the general is in command of the military and space forces, where does he have four estates on rublovka? well, it’s very interesting actually, but what am i talking about?

- in any case, the military is managed by er, they are managed at the tactical operational level, again, by the special services. i think that the agency of the same fsb is among the military, among the officers of the generals, it is well-known, and again, if this is exactly what happens when er goes an order from the kremlin that the wagnerites leave and the military enter and the military is silent, and they were brought, for example, can allow their own statements about the same thing that the geras have any armed forces at all. that is, him. well, if, for example, you could imagine that this is, for example, an fsb project, or , as some people think, there is some kind of uh, well , such a cool beauty who can afford such things. well, i think that he would existed for a very, very short few minutes, that is, the military found a way to destroy him, he would have disappeared not only from the information space in general, from this

existence, but completely opposite things are happening, the beauty does whatever she wants, and the front is clearly not controlled by the military, where is the order to occupy bakhmut because the wagners are currently being introduced and will probably be moved somewhere to africa or to other regions of the world where their services are now more needed. russia is losing its influence there, but it is because the wagnerians will appear there who have absolutely no rules, absolutely no human values, or something else that is used by europeans, european law enforcement agencies and special services. can i restore my influence there through the formation of new conflicts, the creation of new conflicts and the launch of new destructive scenarios . well, for example, in the balkans, although there are a lot of such regions. well, if

transnistria, for example, allows them to enter, that is very important for example, for the russians, they simply lose their influence there, visually, they lose their influence, so i think that this is evidence that the project is managed by the kremlin and wagner - it is a kremlin project, and the military can only sit quietly, because they know that if someone starts to protest, this general will disappear immediately, that is the judgment is that we still like him in a stupor or there they do not complete their tasks , they are loyal, the main thing is that they are loyal, they do not raise their heads in response to any insults from prigozhin, they nod their heads and carry out commands from the kremlin, and this is the most important thing now for the kremlin, well, i agree with you here. but about gerasimov. we remember the assessments of the hard-working gerasimov. he says twice that he is a cunning and treacherous person, and then, in principle, i do not include things where the russian military or military-political leadership can decide something

such decisions will be extremely dangerous, and here i am speaking in the context of preparing for our next fate of the zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, we are talking about the fact that the enemy is receiving troops there, and can provide mining and other dangerous measures there, and thereby put pressure on the west as a traditional element of such nuclear blackmail. does this mean that as part of the preparation of our offensive actions, we must take into account the risks and importance of the zaporizhia npp factor and whether our western partners are taken into account. and in general , your understanding of this object in the course of our offensive operations. extremely a-a let's say so er acute problem if we remember that literally two days ago the mother presented her plan for er ensuring the security of the zaporizhia npp and both sides and

russia the occupier and ukraine er and the country and which belongs to this station, but this station is occupied and rejected this plan, because it is, of course, from the point of view of ukraine , for example, it starts or can be the first step in legalizing the stay of russians at this station , and i completely understand the ukrainian side here , but for the russians, in principle, they are also have included this territory already in their sovereign constitutional territory, therefore they also cannot go for it and that is why the mega plan, which again why is the mother indecisive in this plan, we mention again that the atom is still out of sanctions rosatom continues to implement dozens of projects, including with our uh, western partners, uh, worth tens of billions of euros, and therefore well, it is obvious that someone uh, let's say it would be unprofitable to impose sanctions and it would be unprofitable to speak openly and frankly about the role of russia that russia is an aggressor country and there

cannot be any such alternative solutions, i.e. not just a security plan, but the mother must immediately demand that the russian troops withdraw from the dance - this is the only way to ensure the safety of this station, i.e. russian troops are coming out. okay. if you think that this is impractical from the point of view of security, because the russians can start shelling the station so that they can go there immediately. any community that would be there and during the ukrainian offensive and other operations would ensure security, that is, there would be a neutral status for the time being if we talk about

the military component, and this could become solution to the problem but once again profit looms, profit does not give our western partners the opportunity to act openly and clearly as required by international law, because in reality the problem is very clear and the aggressor is a nuclear power plant and the aggressor must leave, as happened, for example, at the chornobyl npp. since we gerasimov , i suspect that general zaluzhnyi is referring to this operation, when the russians wanted to quickly cut off ukrainian opportunities for the defense of the capital and quickly kiev indeed, in three days and chernobyl, the chernobyl station was in the area of ​​operations at that time, so fortunately , the operation did not succeed, and now i think that , after all, the international community will be forced to recognize russia as the aggressor of the zaporizhia npp

officially and demand it is already necessary to demand sanctions with sanctions. let's say it's not just with words. but with sanctions, with tough sanctions in relation to the russians, what about the exit and the exit of the russian troops from the zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, well, in any case, i understand that the issue is extremely difficult from the point of view of conducting hostilities, when in the heart of this potential offensive there may be a nuclear facility , each side is trying to use all the possibilities to their advantage, it will be extremely difficult . the borders of our country, everything is equal , then the issue of security guarantees arises, and at the same time. now we are talking about the beginning of such a new format of discussions about what ukraine needs most from the point of view of security guarantees, there is one version - this joining the alliance, the second intermediate option is such security guarantees from low-lying countries

, the third option, which also appears there, and certain contractual relations between the united states and ukraine follow the example of israel or japan or south korea they are all different models in fact. and i would like to hear your vision of how this process will develop, what is optimal for ukraine and what will actually be realistically implemented in these conditions. well, in my opinion , first of all, there is no alternative to nato, that is , nato is the only model that fits ukraine if we are talking about our security well, i think that there is no other option for nato as well how to include er include ukraine finally in its security system of ensuring the defense of the members of this euro-atlantic security organization er here in my opinion

, nato does not have a clear conviction for us there is no alternative now, specifically because of what is happening at the moment, that is, at the moment, we cannot be included in nato , because we are in an active phase of the war with russia , and it is obvious that article 5, it will require from all members organizations ie spain e.e. the netherlands, hungary, e.e. italy should immediately join russia and it is obvious that this development of events does not suit the majority of the nato countries, which are not named, i think they will not immediately agree to become a participant in the war with russia, which in principle the united states just yesterday seems to have made a statement from one of its official representatives that one of the main goals of the united states is to support

ukraine. therefore, if we now imagine the immediate inclusion of ukraine on the rivne site in nato, it is obvious that it will be against the interests of the united states and most of the nato countries. they actually understand the danger from the development of events, that is, there is a reality, there is no such thing alone , but on the other hand, nato will not accept us at the vinnytsia summit because it is against the interests of the majority of nato countries, which are exiting, and there are talks about security guarantees called israeli the option is, again, the israeli option, it is interesting, but it seems to me that we already have it better than the israeli option, because the rammstein format is actually the same israeli option, well, that is, they declare some military-political guarantees for us and provide military-technical support and

financial support and organizational and training personnel, well, that is, any support other than direct participation or direct participation, again, i repeat , it does not meet the interests of most countries nato, therefore, the rammstein format is, in principle, already the basis of the security guarantee. if you look at what else can be added to these guarantees, i think that it is possible to sign declarations or sign agreements, again, as i formulated for myself, the next task of ukraine on the next vilnius summit is to prevent budapest-2 to prevent e bucharest-102 when it was announced to us in 2008 that we would be members of nato and then er. this all died and to prevent minsk 3, that is, to actually prevent these attempts to freeze the conflict. if these

three tasks are put in parentheses. what can be the solution? i think that the basis can be , in principle, ukraine's proposal - it is the so-called kyiv security compact , the elements that are already in the form of rammstein are also implemented in principle in relations with nato . there is hard work ahead, that is, we are already looking after after right here, by the way, and i forgot one more thing, it would be nice to include such a standard phrase in the final declaration itself, the alliance is starting negotiations with ukraine on nato membership, that is in fact, it gave itself a huge and powerful political signal that we broke out of the trap of bucharest, where we were simply promised because the start of negotiations on membership means that ukraine is already actually invited , but of course you can include the phrase that the decision to include ukraine in nato will already be praised

by consensus bearing in mind that when the active phase ends, he is from russia , here i say that uh, we are talking about victory , but uh, it is obvious that russia can, for example, not sign the capitulation, we can expel them russians abroad but russia, for example, will isolate itself and refuse to pay us compensation, sign a capitulation and turn us over to war criminals, but this does not mean that we cannot join nato at this moment, because the active phase will end, so i think that such a political signal can be launched in the declaration and then create a-a in the platform due to the signing of some variants of the kiev security kit, but in principle, the situation is quite complicated, but unfortunately, it is a reality i.e. we don't have a simple solution at the moment. by the way, this concept of yours looks quite neat. i think it will be easier to implement it in the solution of the meeting site in vinnytsia, because in fact we are really talking

about an extremely complex situation that must be multi-component and take into account today's the point of perspective, all the risks , mr. mykhailo, as always, it was very interesting to listen to you. thank you for your inclusion, for your profession , and i would like to remind our viewers that mykhailo saamus and the manager were on the broadcast of the final with the press of the analytical organization, its politicians are network networks, and then we will talk about the existing risks for ukraine from russia with missile attacks, we are talking about this , we will talk literally in a few minutes with our next guest humer nasal spray 25% in drugstores live now for yourself you can live without a home in an unsurpassed way, the history