[000:00:00;00] if ukrainian refugees, because polish society was initially very open to refugees , but obviously the wheels are a desire to help. well, once it is already so far, let's say in turkey, they accept four million raw refugees, and at the beginning it also helps them a lot, but because of turkish for 10-12 years already. well, he dreams a lot that these raw people just left somewhere, that is, i think there is such a threat to really use this. as you said , the ukrainian card, after all, what is very important in us is hmm, law and justice and the opposition it's very different, apparently, on all issues, this is an eu issue, it's an issue of protecting rights, but

regarding the ukrainian issue, there is some general consensus, obviously there are differences, but it's not a question of whether we should help ukraine, it's a question of how to help, it's a question of whether they they don't do everything they can, but now we have and this is very important , yes, for you, for us, now we have such a general consensus of cold political forces regarding the need for assistance to ukraine regarding what is ours, i have mean polish also that also war, and in this sense, there will obviously be some problems, such as with yashchy from our ministry of foreign affairs, but i think there will be big changes before the end of the war, so until the end of the war there will not be any big changes , for example, with germany, but we had good

relations, now this already a crisis yes, it is the responsibility of law and justice, i think that this will not happen with ukraine. well, if the war ends, then there will be problems, and until the end of the war , kaczyński said last year that the volyn tragedy should not be touched on, so that he respects zelensky, etc. how much in principle now we can expect that poland will continue to play such an important role in supporting ukraine for euro-atlantic integration . what can poland do before the vilnius nato summit? what do you think? i think that nato needs to develop a scenario for ukraine, because with regard to the european union, we now have scenarios , ukraine is a candidate, and this is clearly the question of whether

and when and how to start negotiations in war conditions , in general , we have such a general plan for ukraine and the eu; we are not there yet because, in general, there is a uh from the side of nato and i think also from the side of ukraine there is an understanding that by the end of the war uh , the prospect of membership i mean such an official membership in nato, well, there is no such prospect nevertheless, on the other hand, now ukraine is already receiving very powerful aid from nato countries, and i guess we have to think about it, and there are also proposals in poland to simply develop some kind of system of very powerful guarantees from nato for ukraine outside the union, yes, but

later after the end of the war, i think about the question um, to the issue of membership, it is possible, it is possible to return. so , you know, a year ago, no one wanted to talk about tanks and military aircraft in poland, and thanks to the generous countries of nato, too thanks to poland and its diplomatic activity, i managed to solve the issue of leopards in uh, now i managed to solve the issue, but also this one, that is, i think uh, this is so diplomatic, yes, activity and support lesson thank you mr. andrzej andrzej sheptytskyi

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viewers in the studio of iryna koval house with children a bazaar without children is a wasteland june 4 is the day of commemoration of children who died as a result of the armed aggression of the russian federation against ukraine , we continue our broadcast l. elibanova, director of the institute of demography and social research in the name of the birds of the academy of the academy of sciences of ukraine, the national academy of ukraine. greetings, ms. l. so, in your interviews, did you recently write a large text that appeared in the columns of one of the internet publications, they talked about the fact that 2023 is the year of the maximum drop

in the birth rate in ukraine, that it won't get worse this year, well, it doesn't mean anything in practice. if we talk about something like this, then the average ukrainian woman should give birth somewhere 2 10 2:15 - that's a child in her whole life . there is no such thing anywhere in europe, but ok on the 21st year in ukraine had 1.2, that is, almost twice less than it needs in the 22nd year, according to estimates, because it is already estimated to be somewhere around 09 in the 23rd year, we think that , god forbid, it would be 0.7, well, less if it will be if military operations continue on

the territory of ukraine to what extent people will be ready to plan a family in the conditions of a rocket when 07.06 these are already random births, how will the population be reproduced then, the population will not be reproduced and close to reproduction will not be, there will be a greatly reduced reproduction and if this all continues for quite a long time, then about 30 million one can only dream, but i want to say that as of today , the greatest impact on the dynamics of the population is created by the non-decline of the birth rate, these are such more distant prospects and not even the increase in mortality, although we do not know it for sure , namely external migration, that is, it is of great importance how many people left and and will not return, but here there is another problem

that those people who left, if it is divided into 7 and it is not a family departure , it is the departure of women, as a rule, without men. what is the cancellation of wartime? it is quite possible that men will go to them, that is, families will be reunited, but not in ukraine , but on the other hand, now it will be 18:8 months. it will be right in two months , in august, the war will definitely not end in august . it is clear that 18 is 9 + 9, it is two cycles of not having children in families, that is, every new nine months will increase the number of unborn children even in established families. the same

, but the final losses will definitely be the same now it can be from anywhere, from the point of view of demographic estimates, the number of population well, we think that somewhere in the borders in the borders if we talk about the borders of the 14th year, well , or february 23, then somewhere 32 million we hope that after all, there are in ukraine with a big advantage of men or not why not, how could it be that you left about 10 million people, among them there were eight million women , and well, not so many left, we, adults , did not leave that many, somewhere around 4 million left there are 2 million adult women in total i mean there are children and a little bit of older people there, and that's why these two

million women who left, at least they didn't destroy the advantage if there is no reproduction of the population and they will be there for two or three years with everything. i would say with this hole, demographically, what is the population we we receive at the end of the year in 10-15 years, this can be calculated very roughly, if we want to keep 30 million within the borders of 1991, then we need somewhere that the positive balance of migration was 300,000 per year because 300,000 people came to ukraine per year from where will it be returned there 100 years ago three years ago three months ago it may be foreigners but the mechanical increase

of the population should be approximately 300 thousand it is just to have 30 million and 30 million i apologize for such territories that were in the borders of 1991 can be economically able to receive the economy and, by the way, to receive the aging population , how will people live, let's say, people of retirement age in such conditions, for which i apologize for the money, well, not the budget, the pension fund will absolutely not provide this here it's clear. this will be a task of the budget. i wouldn't scare all our people, i don't want to talk about old age, let's say respectable age, you like it better. we need to scare people who are now 35 to 40 years old .

they will definitely not pay any down payment, but they will not receive a pension, what to be afraid of, don’t be afraid, where will they get their pension from, only it will be paid from the budget, i am asking you in all countries they pay in such cases from the budget well, what do you think, is ukraine the only country in europe or in in the world where the pension fund is absolutely unsustainable, but i am afraid that the budget of the swiss federation is a little larger than ours . well, i have such suspicions, it is true, but there is also a larger pension. well, let's assume that this problem can be solved in this way. and what is there? and there is no way accumulative system, the pension fund will still not be able to cope , moreover, it will be an additional burden on the pension fund, because now it will be necessary to take money from there for the accumulative system, then it may and will be better, but now at the beginning it will only worse and them is it possible to increase the number of the population with the help of some programs to stimulate the birth rate if you want to pay practically from the pension budget no

, let's do it, i already said that in order for reproduction to be simple, an average woman should give birth to somewhere between 2-10 2.15 children yes, in none there is no european country with such a birth rate. i emphasize that none of them will appear in ukraine, well, logically, i understand this. i simply and i am trying to understand why we should definitely encourage the birth rate , but it should be a hope not for something more children will be born, but simply uh, help to young families or families with small children to ensure their independence from impoverishment, i.e. so that the second child is not a ticket to poverty. today, the greatest risk of impoverishment is the birth of a second child , then state programs to stimulate

migration are needed. and if it is not ukrainian migration , ukrainians don't want to return, who will live here? you know, before the war, i said that in such cases, we can only count on a country poorer than us. and now in connection you know, with this kind of fashion, you can count on ukrainians not only from countries like these. even europeans can come to us if it is safe here, there will be economic growth, if there will be better opportunities for self-realization, less bureaucracy, then you can count on that, and here you can count on one more thing, we can let's say a company, if it's not , well, let's assume construction there, i don't know about the reconstruction of mariupol, yes , we need a huge number of builders

, we don't have such a number, and it's also unclear whether we need to prepare them is it necessary to prepare because it will be, you know, the increase in demand for the labor force of builders and other related industries, it will be like this, it will be explosive, but it will also be explosive, and then it will decrease, it will be about 5-7 years, no more, there will be a huge demand, then the question arises whether it is necessary to prepare young people on such a scale as it will be necessary in this 5-7 years, and then what to do with these people, so there is a possible option when the companies that will win further are appropriate that they will import labor under the conditions of not migration as such, namely labor labor entered here so that they could work in this company and then return back, this option is possible, but it does not increase the population, it is just land, it is from above

, an opportunity from the reconstruction of the state, one of them is the development of the economy, and if the development of the economy is successful, then they will come because what can we do now? well, we won't bring it in by force. i just wanted to say what else to say that in fact this problem is not so simple and there are no easy ways or simple answers to this question. believe me, we are studying the experience of all the countries that are -is went through post-war military migration, post-war return, that's about 30 countries in the world that well, not so long ago , african and latin american and european different versions of yugoslavia went through this , definitely, definitely, no one restored anything , especially they did not restore the return of 30% there.

despite the fact that the serbs were forcibly returned and this is quite an important remark, well , it means that the conversation is still ahead. when we say there 10 years ago, we talked about the complete exhaustion of the potential of demographic growth, no one listened . and now at least it is clear that there is a problem and a very serious problem. ukraine, we talked about what will happen to the ukrainian population soon. there are countries in which, on the contrary, the population is now larger than they can afford to ask. this is crimea. this is turkey. mykhailo yakobovich, where

connoisseur candidate of historical sciences, film, someone's colleagues, this exam, the branch of the university of freiburg, with whom we will summarize the inauguration of the president of turkey, rajapaksa, and ipr, reprimanded, the truth is, it can be said that this is a political event, mr. mykhaila, who came, who did erdogan name, who didn't he name , who didn't come, good evening, in fact, i don't see in this eport there is especially symbolism if this toadstool had its first victory yes , but this is already a new state and the president and his connections, for example, they are some leaders stable and long-lasting also from the fact that, for example, putin arrived or zelensky did not arrive or some central asians did not arrive, this will not change anything especially, especially since erdogan organized this inauguration quite quickly after the elections, we can see that he has certain expectations of his own. i would especially like this list of guests. i would not sift through it to draw

any too significant conclusions from it. the only thing is clear. with the american vector of politics here , the question is clear that it is clear such an application for anti-americanism, but that is what in principle the electorate is expecting a reprimand, so it continues in essence what zubichi said in front of companism , yes. and tell me about the invitation to the prime minister of turkey, armenia. it means that now he sees the rating inside armenia, he is trying to knock out any guarantees for the preservation of the independence of his country and somewhere there, he is trying to play with

the carriers so that the russians simply do not remove him because russia as an ally did not show itself in the best way. but at the same time, the pigs were in the victory parade , and now it is an attempt from turkey to normalize relations economically and, on the other hand, to ask again from turkey that it would be better resolved there in azerbaijan and for europe to demonstrate a kind of peacemaking, that is, this is the policy that kosheyan is already playing, well, it has been more than a year and it is unlikely that it will end successfully for him, at least as a political leader of armenia, especially and it does not command respect neither inside nor outside the country, why is this the first leader of armenia who is trying to distance himself from russia, to find a common language with regional neighbors, who among the armenian presidents could afford such a thing until now? somewhat anti-russian, they

tried in every way to show that they say armenia is independent from russia, but we see that independence continues in the economic plan and in many other and non -facts, this party will remain in power and from above, karabakh is quite strong, it also exerts a certain pressure and the kitten even so he probed the soil, is it possible to sign something like that conditionally eternal peace with azerbaijan , but even it is not up to you to do this because there is quite strong criticism, that is, the question is who in general will be represented, for example, in a year by the same peasant, or will he not represent himself or only a part of armenian society, because there is also quite strong revanchism . he is especially very strong among diasporidias armenians have a very strong influence, especially since labor migration from armenia continues, in fact, the economic situation is not improving

, and again, i would not look at these visits by paschenyan as something that will bring about fundamental changes in the south caucasus. this is the same geopolitical game. which some people played there and in the 90s tried the very game that is played in central asia sometimes, but they all remain in one way or another under the influence of russia, and when it comes to the fact that it is necessary to come to moscow, they go very quickly and something is needed to sign right away in moscow, on victory day, we should meet with a person who is wanted by the international criminal court without any problems. in principle, this is russia, it is always a great hegemon that must be obeyed, so here, well, this is his visit to turkey. let's see what will happen next, of course, but i have no serious conclusions does not do any more. now vector is demonstrating that he is also far from anti-russian in his

policy, and therefore i would not have seen such a strong contradiction here. nato and janstout were also at this inauguration. they meet suddenly, talking first of all about the admission of sweden to nato . do you hope that the turkish parliament will still ratify the agreement on the admission of sweden to nato before the vilna alliance? but uh, well, toltenberg is quite confident and it was declared that sweden has fulfilled everything, that is , the situation with finland is repeated here , probably most likely because it was not possible to stop this process and russia despite efforts there are also various kinds of fake scandals there with the so-called burning of the faucet with other nonsense. but we see that turkish society too. when they started to change the record, they simply stopped talking about it

. she calmed down quite quickly, because again , this is the excuse that was, well, just thrown in with the aim of getting fucked and claim for ourselves again, we are waiting for the replacements to be received by the editors in the next week, two of them will be decisive as to how the situation with the kurds will be in sweden, because there are already data that they will be expelled back to turks, but simply these people had the opportunity to at least leave sweden, and uh, sweden now, well, according to some data, it is strengthening the essential migration policy, and that 's why the swedes probably after all. nato, that is, this can be expected simply. it is a matter of time and literally the next two weeks will show how long this process will be . and tell me, why was such

a significant change of the government and ministers in the economic bloc and the minister of foreign affairs necessary? affairs and the minister of defense, if everything is so good, why is the staff of the cabinet of ministers being completely renewed, first of all, everything is really not good there, erdogan even in the early 2000s, he went to e-e against the background of a significant economic crisis , it is necessary, and the second point is that despite the fact that it came diverting now, there is still minsk, who managed the turkish economic bloc , this is in order to calm down the investors, the market, to knock down the written peace. which ones are there, apparently , to stabilize the apartments, because in another one, what did he like , a new active or 10 years of 90% inflation - it there, currency devaluation takes place in the full code, and there are a lot of problems. it is on this mobile phone, or even every

month, that the exchange rate changes. but it is also the same proven old staff, and now the buttercups themselves say that the price has a certain effect, well, short-term prospects, and long-term prospects - this is the one the same leader with the same approaches to life. i do not know at all how it is possible to expect the same figure in the 20th year of being in power, if we are new, the more the narrowing of the circle of supporters, the even greater level of mistrust and more a bigger check on loyalty local elections are going on in march 24th in these local elections there is a chance to lose absolutely all big cities there are changes there was ankara er antalya everything can be voted on t2 means it did not happen now there will be corresponding spills there will be corresponding the initiative will have an appropriate facade, but the selected personnel

, some of them have not been there before. well, where did all these people come from who were already connected to this task to some extent during their careers? this is such a reshuffle that will probably really calm for a certain time, the situation, but then next year, what will the editor do with this question? when again, the same left, right down to the bottom, here it is already to his economic policy, at least many viewers, they ask a lot of such questions, to which there is no answer yet, let's see. thank you, sir. mykhailovych , it’s a pity, a connoisseur, candidate of historical sciences, you ’re leaving yanukovych, an employee of the forensic science department of the university of freiburg in germany . iryna koval will introduce you to today's news. as you can see, our news is quite serious and quite important. because all this day we are talking about what

is happening right now on the border of russia and ukraine and what is currently being commented on from the point of view of foreign policy events. already iryna with us, well, on the air, so please pass the word and say goodbye, thank you, mr. vitaly, have a good evening, i will literally tell you in a moment about the situation that is happening on the border with russia and what is happening now in poland and, of course, in various regions our country, so wait in ukraine at 7:00 p.m. news time on the espresso tv channel. i greet all the viewers in the studio of iryna koval for a few minutes without weapons and soldiers. the fighters of the rdk and the legion of freedom of russia have offered to meet the governor