[000:00:00;00] kovalchuks, that is, er, but again, returning to your question, what can be beneficial to someone? well, he is handsome, er, no, you are talking about a nice guy, so if we are talking about pleasant horses, that is, putin, i am tired of telling him so, i am going to go to the there's some peace there gelendzhik i'm going a-a it's necessary that the politborot - it said well agreed and for that , please, we're mixing it up sabinin eh, in the end these people, by the way it's about mishustin sabinin, well , i already see him, i talk to him a lot by russian experts and political scientists, i am not the only one who sees the company, this company is real, where his last name is probed as a last name well, who could be the best of the worst

elections, that is, if not putin, who is there to negotiate with , and it’s not just like that, that is, a person also thinks about himself that's why, as they say, there are a lot of nice people there without a criminal past, without them having eaten with others there from the ministry of defense to give. i'm not only with them , but he is with the local authorities, with the local authorities of st. petersburg, uh, a lot. with kadirovok, kadyro kadyrov was asked by the way, by the way, the difference between kadyr and prigozhin, we also conduct a media monitor, i.e. russian er, weekly media monitoring of russian changes, what do they talk about the most, what are the terms for this, that is, the discourse of them and surnames, who is the most and here and there, and we take into account and federal mass media and local mass media and most importantly also social networks such as kadyrov when did this fault line begin at

the end of december between shoigu and gerasimov when did these most intense battles for bakhmut begin and just the first swallows began that they have a hmm hmm conflict ah kadyrov distanced himself from the beauties, if you remember , they were constantly recording videos together, they were there in three days and so on, he left and if he was on the same level as the beautiful beauty, he was in the top 5 of politicians, the top 5 is here. with the fact that he was always in second place besides putin , the second was volodymyr zelenskyi, and they constantly talked about him. well, of course, i would be in the top. and both kadyrov and handsome kadyrov went to the bottom specifically, that is, he left suspended and he is not in the top 5 already these whole months , at least it looked like he said so, he got sick at the right time and you see , when it was necessary to settle down a little , they used kadyrov, that is, he

showed that i am a team player here player they were friends. i remember how they were, uh, allies among themselves, and then, now , he acts as a skunk and says, i don't understand at all what akhmat is doing there, and they say to him, ah, dear, come on, come on. we have a little explanatory work for you here let's hold and this skirmish begins. after which the commander and founder of wagner's own group, dmytro utkin, speaks, who says that uh , at the end of his speech, he ends it with - then they are not such friends because not so long ago they fought among themselves and these times may well come back . what do you think this leads to, because this is , well, another fault line because, well, let's be honest, chechens are not very popular among

of the russian population and it comes on the contrary is now gaining popularity among those zet-patriots yes who support the war and so on and what can this lead to or can it be another fault line which well let's say it should be in favor well i don't think that again here are these last perpetuations about which you said that it was the initiative of kadyrov himself and his two closest publicists, daudov and delimkhanov, so that he asked them to record these videos and then respond to what prigozhina answered, that is, in this way, here kadyrov is playing quite a long game and watching, that is, i am a team player, i am changing the defense, and in the event of this, how will this conflict simply be forgotten, and by the way , you said about popularity, we ask

the question of what will be the attitude of russians towards shoigu to prigozhin to kadyrov to gerasimov to gorkin, yes, the smallest share seems to be one or two percent. for kadyrov, those who do not know him, all other russians know who he is, and 70, it seems, 2 or 3% say that they treat him positively. it's beautiful a little more than 60 percent are positive, and he is very serious since december, since december, he has reduced his uh, increase his recognition, i.e. if in december 40% said that i don't know who he is, now he is a producer , so what and how old are the singers

valeryiv is like that, but now it's the other way around and he constantly says , i don't need shells, citizens, i won't be enough . january at the beginning of the year when this the dead season, you mean the informational first week of the new year, he was the only one, besides putin , of course, who was talked about the most in russia, and by the way, there was already an order to remove him from the federal content and his federal changes. there is no in in my office, there are four or five televisions tuned to various russian channels, but he is not there, not even the interviewer who conducted this his last program interview, and yes, he was simply fired from his job, just as they say for this interview. and after that another document appeared what is the beautiful thing about, it should disappear from all mentions of all, and he is really one of them not only from the federal but from the large internet

media . he has his own trolls. we remember the olginsk. anyway, let's finish it. well, let's say that they can't screw it up to discuss it in social networks in telegram and vkontakte . russians themselves are already talking about it. i want to ask further about how what can a revolution be today in russia but we will do it in a few minutes a short break and we continue our broadcast, join the brave who protect their own who am i a marine why bohun who is faithful

when always marines universal warriors who operate from the sea air and land who know exactly what it is to fight and win glory to the marines of the naval forces of the armed forces of ukraine each embroidered piece is a symbol of the indomitability and revival of ukraine, we will heal our wounds, we will decorate the scars with flowers , ukrainian destiny will blossom again, like poppies in the field

, ukraine embroidered renaissance strong unbreakable free how to purify water at home first filter the dirty water through a clean cloth let it settle in a closed container for 24:40 48 hours after that filter the liquid from the sediment that has formed if you do not have a filter make one for this you will need an ordinary plastic bottle gravel sand or wood or activated charcoal cut off the bottom of the bottle pour the filter element into the container and pour settled water inside after filtering boil off the liquid ready now your water can be consumed

1+1 continues the national telethon of the night watch project in the studio maria vasilievna is in frankivskyi, we have guests oleksandr shulga, the head of the institute of conflict studies and analysis of russia, we are talking about the russian rebellion and here we have completed the previous part of the conversation with the fact that the recognition of prigozhin is increasing the number of his supporters is growing, and the number of his supporters is growing. and now i remember the events , well , what are ukrainians waiting for ? will return to moscow on the way, they will be joined by other military units, and thus at some point around the kremlin, this military entourage will appear, which is actually depicted on our studio wall , as far as this is the real course of events, because if you remember, well, he revolution of the 17th year, when the provisional government appeared in russia, then the support of the bolsheviks was minimal

. well, they all ceased to be perceived as in force, then at some point they exploded. are there any prerequisites for such a thing in russia now? the explosion that we all are expect which we all read and in the format in which we expect well, i would first ask the question whether you and i want this because in the 18th year everything ended very badly for ukraine. we remember what happened after the bolsheviks came to power after revolution, well, the main difference is that today ukraine supports the whole world, then the whole world refused us 15 nevertheless , you and i are talking about the end of the war . we have it is necessary to mention another difference then the whole world did not support and then they did not have nuclear weapons and such and such not what but the army

in the administration well, it may not bring the end of the war to ukraine in that we do not have uh, um, good understanding of a good alternative, who will be ok after putin, because uh, if we are talking about liberal democratic - it is a liberal democratic position. so-called although not all of them were liberals and democrats, but nevertheless they are well, they are the journalistic opposition, they are the opposition in exile, who is sitting there, i just resigned, i returned, we presented our results to all the emmys of lithuania, i had a great conversation with one of the intellectuals of lithuania, he says that the best thing they can do is this liberal democratic position, which you and i are on, and the west, um , maemorkovsky, eh, no all others but nevertheless the best they can do is to come out and say we have not failed we

will never come to power we this is the best we can do and now since we have removed ourselves all political ambitions now we will tell the truth and we will tell the truth in order for russia to become better so that it gets out of this pique and so on and so on, everyone does not want another russia, they want the same russia, but already under their leadership and they, and not the most important thing, they do not want to recognize those traits that led russia not only to putin's regime to this war or to irpen, who did it ? they hysterically do not want to admit that it was the russians who did it, not little putin. putin and they don't want to recognize the objective data that we provide, for example, they are not politically correct because they have to constantly look around to see what their

potential voters will think of them, they do not yet know that they are their voters, but nevertheless they think that it is theirs the voters, if they would remove this burden, then it would be much better, and maybe someone, well, not more promising now, who can come as a result of these events, they just might come, or if we give you an analogy with the communists, there is already a krp yes, clubs of angry patriots of these yes the people of ghirkin are completely different there, and there are overlords and fascists, and who is who, but there are no monarchists, critics are allowed, for sure , some criticism is allowed, but you see , they still say that we are a social and political movement , we are not a party. and prigozhin developed a stormy activity after he took away where he is now he travels around russia and collects his supporters precisely in that and the problem is that in the absence of purification of the entire

socio-political field in russia accordingly, any public organization that is allowed is a quasi-civil society, yes, the canyons of such a public organization, the owner of a public organization, just like that, they are toxic , their goal is not peace and leads, but it is active, they are energetic, and just like that. have every chance to take over the power if the power of these technocrats, er , kleptocrats, gerantocrats, and so on down the list, and just for you and i, we didn't like it very much, it seems to me that these armed men there are 20-30-50 thousand, the most important number it is enough to just tell them, friends, let's turn around, let's go to the ruble and not die near maryinka, and they will gladly go to rob the wealthy houses of the russian elite, having at the same time tanks, armored

personnel carriers, weapons, body armor, than simply dying on the battlefield is not important to them, and then what and then and then rob the kremlin and then where will the revolutionary wave go and then when will they rob everything and then they will leave just like now those who survive will gather them and again who are they the guilty ukrainian that's why this scenario is not very suitable for us. the scenario of the 18th year, only now it's not the communists, but these zz activists - this is also a very bad scenario for ukraine . unfortunately, on the other hand, who can be ? if we talk about the rdk and the legion of freedom of russia, yes, i understand that they are not quite quite, they are not numerous . they may not have huge support, but the situation is dynamic, it is changing and we can look at what is happening now

in the border regions of belgorod with ukraine in the belgorod region, the belgorod region, the kursk region, the bryansk region. i don't even mean these bombers, but drones, namely the signs of these radicals of the legion of freedom of russia, and you can't see that there was any such, you know, some kind of people's militia. that is, well, you are a sociologist and you probably understand this phenomenon better than anyone , that the majority of russian society does not consist of passionate people, but rather of a swamp , as well as quite passive, as well as not very. but they resist whatever authority, whatever it is to them i like it, even though i don’t like it, there is no special definition, and therefore it may not be worth discounting these armed forces in the formation , considering the fact that even with such small forces they made such a mess in those regions of russia bordering ukraine. well

, of course, we cheer for this team to the civilian confrontations in russia eh for now i think it is too early to talk about their real real political career so far we can see their military career eh well let's see how it will be on the battlefield because these actions they they are very impressive have their purpose and this is a classic raid action, they are described there in all military textbooks, not there, the soviet ones, the newest ones, they are very successful, but so far, so far , this is purely military history, if we are talking with you about political and political scenarios and about scenarios for the end of this war , you and i want it to end, after all, russia started it, russia should end it, so, so, withdraw its troops, so , so, so, otherwise, so far, i see that they have chosen

the path, well, with weapons in their hands but those about which who did you and i talk about, the liberal-democratic plan and this zet flank, that's what they seem to me to be. now they just squeezed it in between themselves, that was the only thing that uh, the liberal democratic flank, and they honestly say, we ourselves are not ready uh, for the armed forces are you determined to fight? and if i'm not ready, i can't call people hmmm, actually, i'm in an interview, honestly, that's what isaac says , the patriots are ready friends . i've been listening carefully to ilya ponomarev for a few minutes now. mr. ilya , good day to ponomarev today, the manager polycenter of the legion of freedom of russia, and then we listened to part of our conversation, we are trying to understand the movement vector of the events that are happening today in russia, on the one hand , we see a large number of internal, well

, a large number of internal conflicts are developing along the lines of prigozhin shoigu , kadyrov, girkin, putin, his the environment on the other hand, and what oleksandr mentioned, and the activation of the purely military component of the internal internal struggle in russia is, er, such semi-meme events of shemyakin shemyakin as russian political scientists themselves and their kremlin mouthpieces cannot understand what is happening. please tell me the vector of the movement of those military events that we are observing in the belgorod region. is this a purely military component? will it, at some point, be converted into a political one ? in the political slogans and the political component , well, the vector is common to moscow, as you understand, that is, now it is only the beginning, and

as a beginning, the main goal is to fly the flag of new russia over the liberated territory of russia er, to be er, white-blue white and here is the flag, er, to say that a new free russia was born, er, that many people who are representatives of the resistance within the russian federation itself are joining these units , that they are growing, what is this the main hope is that this is strength, which is very important, because as you rightly said there , we gave the liberal opposition all this non-violent protest , well, this is weakness, this is not strength, and here it is important to prove to the russians that resistance is at all possible and that it can be successful and now this is exactly what is happening. but from the point of view of the military sense there, but this is ordinary

help to the ukrainian army, er, in the world of a counteroffensive. because , er, the redeployment of russian units from the territory of ukraine and their location on the border, well, this is a huge help and it saves many lives of ukrainians . not only ukrainians because of the same russians too. because if they are not located in ukraine, they will not die, they will remain alive and everyone understands . to be honest, what exactly are these guys doing there? please tell me what you personally consider success and the actions of their actions in this territory and whether they achieved this success, well, look, the first attempt , it was even there a little unexpected for us, eh, for it to be so successful, because there, at first, the plan was just there

a certain rating eh, reconnaissance by combat eh- eh, but eh, you see that they freed a fairly huge piece of territory there, 40 km, that is, they came and left, of course , but they held it for two days and, eh, now there is an attempt to demolish this shibekin, and that is enough a large e-e population center and if we will be able to stay there again, this is a huge step forward, but can they stay there longer than two days or two hours ? it will be further. what are your plans for the future, and of course it is clear

that not everything can be told in such a situation , but still. and what will be the purpose of these further forays. will they be these raids? if so, then will they be more large-scale er and in general does it have any is this a military goal? is it more of a political and psychological goal of these operations? look, what about a military goal ? now it is already happening there according to the general staff of ukraine, they made it public according to the military intelligence to move from the location of the parts it it started and this, well, this is a life saved a-a from the point of view of that well, like our plans, of course we are moving here and

protonistically eh because well our forces are not like that great luck and the ukrainian army, it does not want and cannot join the operation on the territory of the russian federation, it will object to these promises that were given to it there in the west, these are the conditions of support for ukraine in terms of weapons, and everything else there. and that is why they can be exclusively russian but we need to grow there, and through such operations, we invite new volunteers to our legions, new volunteers who will join the legion, who will join the rbc, and then we can keep it longer and expand the area of ​​influence, and this is in i understand you, but putin reacted to all these stories, how did his entourage react in the context of the weakening of his personal influence of his regime when we see

the actions of the rdk e-e drones over moscow e-e open insults on the part of prigozhin and bitterness e they are personally veiled to him, and how much does this really weaken putin? well, we are moving here step by step again, and you have already seen the danger for their propagandists there . - and then a blow to moscow by the rublevtse eh, what was very, very psychologically also important, and that's what the eh campaigns are on the territory of russia, that is, everything looks like the power is escaping from his hands and that, in general, the fabric of eh russian statehood is somehow

gradually being destroyed there, and eh exactly that's why i'm concerned. of course, i can't bring putin to music there if they stay there, and what do the russian elites think? well, we know this very, very well. they think they need results, a way out of this situation now. they're trying to... do in personal and quality er but when they will understand that it is simply impossible, then of course they will combine and put pressure on putin and who knew, maybe it will be there and the quality there will be a mutiny, some other political changes well , but in the end everything will end the same way , this statehood will be destroyed, the russian federation as an empire will cease to exist and there will be created words or new e-e countries that will continue to exist thank you very much for the inclusion ilya ponomarev, the head

of the polycenter of the russian freedom legion was in touch with us e-e p oleksandr do you model variant of the development of events for the near future considering what we see now, what is happening in russia, first of all, we want to see to what extent the trends that we have already recorded during the five thousandths of research will be, so for six months we are engaged in the study of russia, how much they will develop the first is, uh, even more deployment of the war, that is, when we record not only, not only, well, awareness of this war because, well , they really talk about it constantly, it is a top topic, it has been a red thread for them for almost 1.5 years takes place, but also at the everyday level, because we ask respondents whether there are those who have already been mobilized precisely since the 22nd year , that is, since the beginning of the 22nd year, and whether there are among them

those who died. and if there are those who died, then who and this closest circle is not just now, it is more, to a greater extent, among those who say that they died, there are those who died who know about them , they are acquaintances, but we have been constantly recording for a month that the inner circle is increasing, that is , relatives, several relatives, friends, several friends, or maybe neighbors or colleagues, and we let's see how far is it further? this, of course, is a clear trend of not accepting the second wave of mobilization, even 60% of the uzants do not accept it now, in fact, the russian government will be forced to the point that it will have to be mobilized and the third is the ability of russia to prove and the russian government to justify the lack of success and defeat because three gestures of goodwill near kyiv, near

kharkov, kherson, they managed to explain to the russians after the fact, and the post-war commander was asked whether it was necessary to deviate from the sum, the majority says yes, we kept the soldiers, will they be able to, well, fourth, fifth, sixth, six, well, this is the question, this is the question of this summer, these are the three indicators by which we will see the achievement in russia of such a critical mass of people's dissatisfaction, which can already be concentrated, is a fundamental indicator that the russians want to see the majority of them clear time limits where are we going to what limit are they in moscow they are approaching questions are being asked multiplying the speed of understanding by russians of what is really happening thank you very much oleksandr shuliga head of the institute of conflict studies and analysis of russia, we had maria vasilievna in the studio, i'm in the hungarian