[000:00:00;00] such cases, for example. did it happen that all the guilty should be punished and i would really like them to be punished for their crimes. valentina glynykh, a political scientist, was with us on the air. well, our broadcast continues . the tv channel team is glad to continue its work for you . well, we we continue our informational broadcast, we will talk about the hryvnia exchange rate financially as well and of course prices have risen, because price growth in ukraine in particular has actually stopped and this is a positive thing according to the report of the national bank of ukraine in may, compared to april , inflation was only half a percent in in annual terms, that is, compared to may 22, prices rose by 15%. it is indicative that earlier the nbu had forecasted, well, the rates of inflation were restrained by a number of factors

, namely the sufficient supply of food and fuel , the strengthening of the hryvnia on the cash foreign exchange market and the improvement of consumer expectations. in the summer months, inflation may accelerate again , growth will be affected by the increase in electricity tariffs, the return of fuel taxes up to the military level, as well as the consequences of the terrorist attack by the russian occupiers on the kakhovsky hpp and contact us vasyl furman, doctor of economic sciences p . in your opinion, does it currently make sense to keep it at this level and what are the future prospects in general, can

it not decrease, but look at the national bank today conducts a fairly strict monetary policy and, by the way, which central banks in almost all countries of the world because there is high inflation and despite the fact that inflation is decreasing, i.e. there is a so-called disinflationary trend. but at the same time, today a high discount rate , i.e. 25%, helps to ensure the stability of the exchange rate, protects the international reserves of the national bank of ukraine and increases the hryvnia e-e savings for preservation, so it should also be emphasized that the e-e national bank of e-e management recently announced that for the preservation of favorable trends in the foreign exchange market and in the national bank may move to the easing of monetary policy earlier, i.e. if

earlier in april the bank announced that it would move to the easing of monetary policy in the fourth quarter of this year , the national bank cautiously announced that again for preservation of favorable trends in the foreign exchange market and in the infectious dynamics, that is, if there is an element of the trend, that is, if inflation , well, again, inflation is now really 15:3 according to the results of may, but if you look at the april forecast of the national bank , inflation in our country will be at the level of slightly more than 14% for the year. that is, this is again the april forecast, that is, the national bank, which has newer forecasts in the portal, we will still have forecasts at the end of july, for example. maybe they will improve. but at the same time, the national bank once again announced that it may switch to a softer instantaneous policy earlier than that well , once again, i express my point of view as

an expert. i believe that the national bank currently conducts a balanced, tough but correct monetary policy, and tough is correct monetary policy, but you know, our financiers, in particular, and the employees of the nbu do not really like to answer what the exchange rate will be, say, at the end of the year, although you know that certain forecasts are laid down in the budget, there are certain, well, specifically clear exchange rates and forecasts for the end of this year at the level of uah 42, yes it was discussed, but we can see that the course is stable so far, it is artificially maintained because of how it was plowed, but you know. if we talk about advisers, for example , mr. yuriy horodnichenko of california, who noted that he is one of the traitors of the magnificent, he noted that there is no perfect recipe to restrain the hryvnia, and a fixed exchange rate helps somewhere, and sometimes it hurts, and that is why we need to talk about the third-party procedure, when you know the situation

requires such a compromise, but e- well, it will not be possible to avoid negative consequences from me, now the question is, by the way, he also mentioned in his interview in the comments about this that it is worth doing gradually , gradually releasing this same course to what extent gradually and when it can happen and what are the negative consequences he is talking about, let’s see. well, in the first hour of the war, the national bank of ukraine, uh, switched from a policy of floating exchange rate administration to a policy of fixed exchange rate, and it was a 100% correct decision, uh, it was changed monotary regime, but in any case, it gave us the opportunity to preserve the macroeconomic stability of currencies , the working banking system, people's trust in the banking system, i would like to remind you, by the way , that there have been almost 15 months of war in our country balances of funds of individuals and legal entities in the banking system in all currencies increased by more than 1.5

million hryvnias. that is, these are precisely the results of the correct policy of the national bank of ukraine. now regarding your question, it simply will not happen. the bank has repeatedly stated that it will move in the future to a floating exchange rate, but for this a number of conditions are required , what are these conditions, that is, well, for example, the first condition is that the gold and currency reserves of the national bank of ukraine are sufficiently large for today. by the way, they are large, that is, they do not reach there more than 37 billion dollars, they are more than there , the 11-year maximum was broken recently, that is, this norm is fulfilled, it is very important that they do not decrease, that is , thanks. constant interventions on e-e to maintain and finance imports because the foreign exchange market in our country today is not

balanced, i.e. well, imports significantly outweigh e-e exports, i.e. for example there on this past sunday, the national bank sold more than uah 400 million of its assurances there were net-4 dollars. and the next condition is the relaxation of a number of currency restrictions to minimize the multiplicity of exchange rates and expand access to the foreign exchange market of participants to carry out business activities of the national bank of ukraine by the way, i have already started to soften it. it is possible. it is possible. i will make an interim summary because we still have questions about prices, there is not much time. very briefly formulate your opinion about the exchange rate. stable on that the exchange rate set by the nbu, including a-a but should we talk about the fact that the exchange rate will change radically, let's say by the end of the

year, let's be brief, the national bank does not give forecasts, er, regarding the hryvnia exchange rate, and er, when we move on to politics floating, we are simply talking about the reasons , which, if they are, then the national bank will consider making an appropriate decision , that is, before i named two factors, the third factors , then briefly, i will simply say that this is a continuous decrease in inflation, and the fourth factor is an increase the effectiveness of the discount rate, etc. well, for example, there is a fifth factor of reducing the sensitivity of the foreign exchange market to sedative factors , for example, and then when i add up, well , all these factors, that is, again. no one is saying that there will be floating free exchange rates immediately the transition will be phased, to some extent, there will even be a controlled exchange rate, but it will not be fixed , only then, when the war ends there, and we will, to some extent, eventually move to that policy of floating exchange rates, which we

conduct, of course, wars, mr. vasyl i also cannot help but ask you, because i am sure that this is of great interest to our viewers about these products, what will happen to them in the future , taking into account what you have told us about the course , how will it affect the course, by the way, the course has a positive effect on the prices of products, and this is one of the factors, e.e., a decrease in inflation. well, after all, an infection is an increase in prices. that is, well, we see so much such a disinfection trend today, it has a positive effect on many indicators of economic activity in our country, e.e., that is why the bank's forecast for price increases this year ta a little more than 14%, that is, this is the forecast. the april forecasts of the national bank may gradually change, that is, therefore, let’s talk about the forecast. by the way, if we are talking about the 24th year, then according to the forecast

of the national bank, there will already be single-digit inflation, that is there is a little more than 9% inflation, that is, that is why this situation in our country will decrease, and finally , the question is that we often demonstrate our domestic gas stations in the field window, and how is it that the price increase of approximately 7-10 hryvnias already from july 1 can affect pricing and up to things here we didn't mention about er import, which is more than 50% vegetable gardens, in particular vegetables and fruit, which will also have their signs on our wallets in the future due to the explosion of the kakhova hydroelectric power station. exports, imports, on behalf of the national bank of fuel, have already taken into account inflation inflation forecasts, so here is the tractor of the russian federation at the kakhovo hydroelectric power plant, so according to preliminary estimates, it will affect

the growth of inflation by about plus 0.3%, in relation to the economy and the consequences in the economic, that is, for of our country, the relevant calculations are still being carried out. thank you for joining our broadcast. vasyl furman, doctor of economic sciences, was with us at this time of the day . thank you for staying with us and even at night . ukrainians will be notified on their official telegram channel about the threat of missile strikes and kamikaze drone attacks , specifically about the types of missiles and their direction of movement . this was announced by the spokesman of the air force command of the armed forces of ukraine yuriy hnat earlier on their page several official speeches and results of combat work were published overnight, now ukrainians will be officially notified online which planes took off, what was fired

, and where, however, without details, but where the rockets are flying, we do not detail, we only indicate the direction, there will be a notification, for example, that the tu 95 took off, that they are moving in the caspian region and will be there in an hour, the next message we can give is that there is already information about the launches, after all, this is the same as what those channels do that inform the population that there are probable launches , the air force will do it from a verified sources and a verified telegram channel with a blue check mark will report on this and on this topic and others, we will talk with valery romanenko, an aviation expert. valery in this pair. we welcome you and good evening. by the forces, in particular, by the spokesperson of their e.e. pminat well , how in particular can this information differ radically from those telegram channels that we have been using for 15 months, the most e.

let's say this about information e.e. types of missiles carriers from where they launched the fairy tale that the black sea from ships or planes well, in the end if we talk about the same s300 s400 about which it is impossible to warn about because it arrives very quickly, unfortunately, how to deal with it well, i don’t think that it will give any additional information for population, well, you can say there, uh, well, if you want, you can calculate if the rockets were launched by a fairy tale, or there is a message about the missile launch, are they already there? they are approaching from the caspian region, then in fact, in the central regions of ukraine, they will be in about an hour 40 minutes is an hour, depending on how far away our radar stations will be able to see the launches of these missiles, well, for the population in case of

missile strikes by cruise missiles. in the case of ballistic missile strikes or ballistic missile strikes in any areas , the same five to seven minutes will remain when you need to freak out and run or simply use the rules of two walls regarding the vs300 missile or hall-of-fire systems in cities in our front-line cities, there is practically no time. valery, during the missile attack on kryvyi rih and, in particular, on odesa, it was discovered that m-m technologies were used in the missiles, and actually these missiles were produced with european e-e in your opinion, how do the sanctions work now? we all know and hope that they work

, but they probably don't work if they appeared in russian missiles being assembled from europe. well , they didn't appear. that means they were there and will be in the near future, you know, i'm just i looked at the reports of russia, it’s like the royal british royal institute of defense research , yes, in august they analyzed a-a components from all types of russian weapons from drone missiles , which means there are radio stations of some radio countermeasures systems, so they found that 72% of the components combined -e were produced by companies and concerns of the united states and in fact from all over the world are present in russian weapons, a component of how to fight this, well

, the same russia, and also our specialists analyze the missiles, any, which were shot down, which, uh, fell it means that they exploded and fell anyway, it means that the on-board control complex of cruise missiles is located in the fast part , and as a rule, if they did not survive, well, if the missile was shot down, then it can fall and practically whole, if even the missile exploded, the tail part can be read there labeling and all this information is collected and transmitted by the relevant government, and the governments are the leading manufacturers of radio electronics, that is, the united states, japan , taiwan, the netherlands, germany, great britain , south korea, so there is a little bit of according to this

report, only 1.5% of china is there. that is, it means, well, extremely little. well, i hope that if last year it just means that the manufacturers were warned, then this year some measures will be taken to prevent the further, uh, similar supply of these important elements to russia. and this is a microprocessor, microchips, processors of digital signals, a variety of matrices, what kind of enemy control systems are packed with balls, i held the systems there in my hands, well, a complex , for example, for a missile, control elements there it is called an airborne airborne mvm. and to the kha-101 missile, to some drones, they are stuffed with western elements and microelectronics in western manufacturers, but to prevent this from happening, it means that now you just need to turn to actively turn to

the governments of the producing countries with the aim of influencing the actual companies that continue to supply according to gray schemes. and what is a gray scheme? it is, for example, a company from armenia, from georgia, from kazakhstan, and from turkey, which means that there again from some other country, it orders some elements, and they are brought, for example. well, if we take the former countries of the former republics of the ussr, they are brought to some russian port and then they should go to these countries . well, for example, kazakhstan or armenia, but they are sent directly to russian weapons manufacturers, and the corresponding the branch of these countries puts the bird that they received these details and used them somewhere to interrupt this path, you just need to enter

the certificate of the end user. there is a document. it is of course useful. it is used for ready-made products, but here you have to do something, what if you got it, show where you used it in your own country , but if you didn't use it, then real sanctions are already imposed on you. well , somehow, this is how you can fight it. there are two ways, the first is this is the report that is regularly submitted by our ukrainian commission from russia to the governments of supplier countries and the introduction of special types of documents for complex radio electronics products from similar institutions of the west. there are ways to somehow stop this muddy flow, well, you mentioned the station in our place for just a few minutes, there are already the first such steps, the bank of china is one of the banks . more precisely, at the

request of the u.s.s. young dollars and euros for citizens of the russian federation and a company of lawyers, what is very important is the fight against sanctions, including i have questions about e-e security measures, we will meet soon - we will meet, there will be a phone call the call of at least the planned reznikov of the head of the ministry of defense with the gallant of his colleague from israel. can we expect any kind of breakthrough here, that israel will still help us not only with, say, the drone warning system, but also against a-a missile weapons . especially since the rafael concern is the third in israel presents a state-of-the-art system soon, which could also help in ukraine with your vision of israel, many systems that would be very useful to us. for example, they have ammunition-free systems for defeating drones this is actually what we need the most, that is, systems

that do not need either cartridges or shells, not missiles, unfortunately, israel does not export such systems yet, but you know, israel is such an interesting country that may not supply us directly, but we we can receive israeli products through third countries, either ready-made or in the form of some blocks produced by these countries. well, unfortunately, i cannot voice these systems, but such cases are known when, for example , we receive something from poland. that it copies but contains many components of the production of israel, for example, with this country, relations must be maintained and there is no need to be offended that they do not give us something directly, so far they are not ready to give , uh, yes, your truth is that they are not ready directly . moreover, the help is always likes silence as well as money, but when it comes to israel , yes, it often means gaining weight. thank

you, mr. valery, for the opportunity to chat . valery romanenko, an aviation expert, was with us. congratulations to all who do not sleep together with us olena morozova nazar long team tv channel rada currently work for you and continue with this topic in russia they see no reason to continue the grain agreement because the country allegedly did not receive what was due to it under the agreement dmytro piskov, the spokesman for the war criminal putin, at least russia will leave the grain agreement the other day , the dictator himself stated that, according to him, western countries have not fulfilled their promises, in particular, they have not lifted some sanctions introduced due to the full-scale invasion of ukraine, to withdraw from the grain agreement russia threatens not for the first time in may, despite similar statements of the russian federation, the validity of the agreement was extended two months earlier

. mykhailo podalyak, adviser to the head of the president's office, stated that it would be possible to continue exporting ukrainian grain through the black sea only if the international community exerts collective pressure on russia. we will talk about this and other topics with denis marchuk as deputy chairman of the all-ukrainian agrarian council we congratulate you so russia is once again blackmailing by terminating the grain agreement after july 18, how serious are the statements and what consequences will the shutdown of the black sea ports have for ukrainian grain exports? well, traditionally, in fact, a month before the end of the current agreement, we see russia coming to such a public level when they start demanding the lifting of sanctions against their country, threatening to stop the possibility of exploding from the territory of ukraine against the great odesa. of course, this is negatively perceived first of all by ukraine , because it is very important for us to

export in the conditions of the war and the economy of the country largely tied to the agrarian sector well, this is a very negative signal for poor countries that expect ukrainian food , and such statements are already starting to create additional difficulties in the possibility of registering new ships that could enter ukraine in the future, consider that we already have the harvest has begun in ukraine because the southern part of ukraine is already beginning to actively collect a new crop, and in fact, for us, it is a year of people who work on the land, a lot of losses, and to understand that the impromptu will be carried out because we experienced very difficult times when there was no profit for more than six months, many exports were not carried out, this led to the fact that manufacturers simply stopped their activities and suffered very large losses, therefore , in this context, i still count on our partners, we will remind the aggressor countries of russia that they did not sign anything its agreement between turkey, the un and russia, and the agreement between ukraine and turkey, the un, but in this case, when such demands are put forward, to

a greater extent, we rely on our partners, but we must also understand that if the world wants to receive ukrainian products, today we need to think about a new formula that would ensure the safe passage of black sea ships, and in this context you can see even the delegation from africa . serve the enemy accordingly a-a weapons that could be used on water well, of course, russia only understands sanctions as gestures of force, and in fact these sanctions are really with such weighty gestures that show its place in russia and the aggressor country, it bears the punishment because its economy is complex, therefore such actions they, uh, let's say, gave an opportunity to strengthen the signal of the world community regarding russia in the context of the possibility of safe passage

of ships in the black sea, we would also like to you want to discuss the subject of undermining russia's kakhovskaya hydroelectric dam, how do you estimate the losses of agriculture related to this, and well, in particular this year and what can we expect in the next year, a disaster due to the actions of the aggressor country, of course will be reflected in all spheres of our actual life, because there, first of all, we interfere with people, unfortunately, in this case , it is already fatal . this is not an exception, because actually we, as farmers in the south, used a significant amount of water that was taken from the kakhovsky hpp, supplied by two canals, the northern crimean and the kakhovsky main canal, and in fact

we are losing the prospect of irrigating about 500,000 hectares of land there, and in fact we are talking about the fact that ukraine will no longer have powerful agricultural production in kherson oblast, zaporizhzhia oblast, which took water from the kakhovka hpp, we are actually talking about losses, and considering the valley, we will remind you of our potential in the 21st in 2018, the regions collected about four million tons of grain each, and if such an export is impossible, we will lose about one and a half billion dollars, these are very significant, significant figures that are not respected by the ukrainian budget ukrainian goods fellers and in fact what i am talking to you are producers without renewing the water supply and in the context of the current situation, i.e. the reconstruction of the kakhova hydroelectric power plant , in fact, we in this region can forget about agriculture, so single farms will sow something, they will even grow something, but this not at all the volumes that we as a state could count on. well

, is there a forecast for the harvest of early grains , and it's also an important question, how much smaller it will be than last year's, let's say in comparison - this is purely due to the reduction of the sown area, after all, one should expect a fall in the self-harvest and a fall in the harvest and the war and the pro-front territories and the territories mined until now , which are quite so numerous, all this plays a very important role in the context of obtaining the future harvest, but it will still be significantly more than what we consume inside the country, that is why we are so actively defending the position that exports work because much of what will be grown in ukraine will be directed to foreign markets for comparison with last year in 22 we harvested about 70 million tons of grain oil leguminous crops this season. it is predicted that the amount will decrease to around 64-65 million tons, respectively, these indicators are the consequences of the military actions. well, and

the financial capacity, because many of the product manufacturers could not apply the technological technology in the fields map i mean the introduction of fertilizers and the purchase of high-quality auxiliary material and the use of plant protection products, respectively, this financial failure generates such consequences that will result in a decrease in the number harvest in this season and in the short-term situation , well, with a reference already. of course, for next year, because everything is already planned, we understand that in the conditions of war, the entire main financial resource of the state is directed to our defense for the armed forces of ukraine, and in addition to the state budget, the producers of goods independently they help a lot and in this context we do not count on any financial support because first of all it is a victory, but there is one e-e resource that

could be expanded to use it in the context e support is a well-known lending program 579 and it works and the game does not use it quite effectively but there is one limitation - this limitation is due to the fact that there is a limit , that is, limits of uah 90 million have been used, many of the medium-sized enterprises have used these limits even before seasons so when we now have an active phase for collecting companies , this money is already not enough, and in a few months we can start already in the autumn permanently companies from these conditions, it would be good to talk about the possibility of increasing these limits at least we are not talking twice, although we would like it to be up to 180 million, but the producers indicate 130-140 million. this would be a significant support because these are actually the same funds that will be returned to the state because we lend them, give them with interest , sell them the grain comes in, foreign exchange earnings for ukraine, and the enterprise functions, and this is a very important support for the economy to function, and there are also very