[000:00:00;00] well, what am i ready to present to my first guest and go directly to the conversation oleksandr leonov, executive director of the center for applied research penta , mr. oleksandr congratulations to ukraine congratulations to the heroes , glory to mr. oleksandr thank you very much for joining the program, watch first, now i will briefly tell the audience, well, i will prepare them for the first question i will ask you is that ukraine will join nato in its own way , the spokeswoman of the united states department of defense said about this during a briefing in the pentagon last week of america, sabrina sinkt, answering a question about the prospect of our country joining the north atlantic alliance, according to her, the secretary general of the nato alliance, jens stoltenberg , has repeatedly emphasized that the doors of nato are open to all who wish, but then

a short quote from the spokeswoman certainly inspires us that we we see in the case of sweden , and when it comes to ukraine, they will have their own way to join nato, oleksandr i have repeatedly asked experts what joined me in the program to me on the air about why they are afraid of us and maybe they are delaying in brussels to formally invite us to the north atlantic alliance i understand that informally that is, we submitted an application, the application was accepted, we all understand that we will not become a member of nato until the end of the war with russia, which is ongoing in ukraine, with our obvious victory . we all understand that in order to become a member of nato, we must fulfill certain mandatory requirements and

we will gradually fulfill them. enough it is a complicated process, but i want to ask you the same thing, why do they delay so long in brussels, and at the summit in vilnius , most likely, they will not be invited, they will not say ukraine. we want you to become a member of nato. and you know, it seems to me that here we are a little we speak in different languages ​​in brussels because when we had biden's statement, do you remember when he said that ukraine must fully meet all the criteria of a member of the alliance, and there were quite a lot of conversations saying that biden was afraid of russia and so on , in fact, in fact, in nato and in european the union has actually formed a consensus that ukraine has prospects of becoming a member of the alliance and a member of the european union, but we also have to understand that they are not afraid of russia, because even the old countries that were friends of russia

, france, germany provide ukraine with lethal weapons that kill russians, they know about it and that is why they provided us with these weapons, that is, the question is not that they are afraid of russia, but now that nato and the european union have another phobia, this is the new hungary, in fact, hungary has become a country that destroys the unity of both the european union and nato and in unofficial conversations, this very fabia is very actively talked about in and in brussels and in other capitals of nato and the european union, and actually speaking, here i would like to move on to the fact that this is actually a subjective reason for the fact that we officially do not they will extend an invitation to nato, and the objective reason is that ukraine is now p oleksandr, i'm sorry , the connection is broken. well, you keep talking

because sometimes the connection is broken, and the objective reason, unfortunately, is in that ukraine does not always fulfill them the instructions given by the measure and which it must fulfill , so let's not be verbose, i will say about the seven criteria that ukraine had to fulfill in order to start negotiations on joining the european union, and the official conclusion in this regard was originally supposed to be given in may, but it was postponed, and in fact they say that there was an oral report and uh according to which uh, as reported by the raiders , ukraine fulfilled only two of the seven conditions, that is , if ukraine fulfilled all seven conditions, we

would have a very powerful trump in order to speak with nato about the fact that ukraine meets many criteria, is actively and dynamically doing its homework, there is another point. now, when we talk about not giving an invitation , let's remember that this is one of the important positions of the united states, which always and eva, which in this war act as direct and biggest allies of ukraine, and actually speaking, let 's remember one important thing , when you were greeting the tv viewers, you said to join where we were not disconnected, so i want to say, let's remember that there was some some time ago, the statement of the state department on freedom of speech in ukraine and the need to restore the broadcasting

of opposition channels, ukraine did not actually respond to this appeal. in other words, there will be some serious breakthroughs, and as for the invitation to nato, it seems to me that ukraine should direct most of its work and activities to the formation of a clear step-by -step plan, where the step will be clearly indicated one step two step three step four and so on which we have to carry out after that nato actually determines our progress and makes a political decision to make it a two-way street and ukraine has already passed such a mechanism when it got visa-free, let's remember

that we were given almost 150 conditions that ukraine fulfilled and after that the european union granted a visa-free regime despite the fact that there was a migration crisis in the european union and so on , there were many conversations that they would not be given but when ukraine fulfilled all the conditions the political face of the european union there were forced to make such a decision. and it is very important for ukraine to have such a plan for membership in nato, that is, mr. oleksandr, i understand. when they will approve this plan. that is, we are ready to implement it as you say, as it was with membership in the european union. they told us that you should do that. you should do that . regarding nato so far the plan no well, that is, there is. you should make that reform of the tour form, but our leadership of our country has repeatedly spoken about it. we would like to hear some more and time frames. or is it possible to do as you say point

one point two point 3 when when can it be you know, here is an interesting thing, because it is the ukrainian side that should emphasize this, and it is precisely the absolutely important moment to write down . maybe even the time frame. that is, we and this step are carried out within a month, this within two, and so on. thus, we ourselves let's set a time frame and er for let's be, well, let's say so frank for the european union for nato, when there are no such rigid criteria , they actually have room for maneuver. diplomacy must do everything possible to obtain this plan, it is possible to propose

its own, and so that on the basis of this plan of its own , nato actually agreed or provided its proposals criteria and it was approved already at this summit. because it seems to me just right this moment is much more real than receiving an invitation and for this you need to work very seriously . well, let's hope that we will work and let 's hope that before that we will offer something to nato and we will move forward, at least that's what we would like, alexander let's talk about another event that took place last week, this is a conference on the restoration of ukraine, it was in the capital of great britain, in london, there were many statements of support for ukraine. let's at least listen to two direct speeches from this conference first let's listen to the prime minister of great britain rishi and sumnaka this is a huge

step forward on the way to help insurers in insuring investments in ukraine removing one of the biggest barriers and giving investors the confidence necessary to act with this and everything we do here we are sending a message our support on the battlefield and beyond it will continue and the incredible spirit of ukraine will overcome this yes decision sudak commented on the decision to allocate more than 3 billion dollars in ukraine for reconstruction well, let's do it now let's see let's listen to united states secretary of state anthony blinkin all these reforms and recovery efforts depend on ukraine having the ability to defend itself against future russian attacks that 's why even as we invest in immediate and long-term recovery we must also invest in a ukrainian military that will be sufficient strong in order to protect the sovereignty of ukraine, its territorial integrity and

independence, so oleksandr well, look at my subject in my subjective opinion as simply international columnist. i think this conference was very important for us, and the result is serious in my opinion. in your expert opinion, what do you say? well, actually, this is a conference. by the way, the conference is really any conference related to recovery . of ukraine, where the mechanisms are discussed, it is important, and this conference , in my opinion, very clearly showed for ukraine that the restoration of ukraine is an investment and cannot be considered as a separate project from the project of european and euro-atlantic integration , especially since last year it was created

announced the creation of the rabil ukraine platform within the framework of the european union, and actually speaking, this already indicates that the european union considers the restoration of ukraine as a project for the european integration of ukraine, in fact, many people are talking about the marshall plan for ukraine. so here is the marshall plan , let's remember it for simple reconstruction this is the reformation of germany after the second world war, and the system is deep and in fact the restructuring of the country, and this is precisely why the west sees the need for this help for them. the reconstruction of ukraine is not only physical this is also political, in fact, for this money, ukraine has to become an integral part of european civilization, in fact, because let's say this more correctly, legally, because in fact, ukraine is part of europe and everyone already knew that, but

legally we have to formalize it by joining the european union and nato, and we have to understand that these are absolutely united processes and separate from each other, they just won't work, it's clear, oleksandr well , one more thing, how much have we already moved closer to ukraine, already on the territory of europe, yes . last week, they adopted 11 finally the package approved approved the 11th package of anti-russian sanctions and it passed with such a creak for so long they couldn't agree on it at first then they couldn't convince some players there on the european arena after all they did agree they did approve but here ursula von derlein the president of the european commission said about that well, she rather skeptically said that we have reached a certain limit

and that the 12th package will be approved further, it will be very difficult to approve it, although the ministry of foreign affairs of poland said that already started working on this 12th package ago, the question for you is whether official brussels, preparing the 12th package , will be able to find leverage on some people in europe and in some countries in order to convince them to adopt 12 -th package because diamonds go there, the main thing will be a ban on the export of diamonds, and the benelux countries are very resistant to whether they will be able to somehow convince them. well, as one famous hero of the never site said, and i want to remind you that when the seventh package of sessions was approved, just after the approval of the sixth

the european union was also told that we had reached the limit. but after that, the 11th was actually already approved, so everything is happening with creaks . the reserve for the introduction of sanctions against russia, which actually helps the russian ministry of defense to circumvent sanctions, but again there are a lot of interests there, and a lot , including the nuclear security of the world, in order to overcome these problems, time is needed but nevertheless, as far as prospects are concerned, you know, it seems to me that the trigger could be , for example, proving it in the legal field , that is, not just as a media report, because now there is a lot of information about the fact that russia, er, let's just say, blew up the dam

in principle, they didn't talk about it from the very beginning, but there are objective facts about the fact that she did it, and this and the message about the recording of the explosion by the norwegian seismic stations and data from american satellites and so on. so on and so on investigations by the european and american media, which you know, are increasingly narrowing the circle of how this was done, and it seems to me that when it is possible to prove it, let it not be in court, but at least on the level of facts, then we should already ask the question precisely about the continuation of these sanctions , including about diamonds and dew, because this is actually the use of weapons of mass destruction in ukraine, even without the use of tactical winter nuclear weapons and so on, in terms of its consequences, it even exceeds the

use of nuclear weapons, and strictly speaking er, one more step is to very clearly put pressure on russia regarding the situation in the soviet union, because after the dam was blown up, it is obvious that many in nato and the european union must understand that well , actually, er, russia is capable of anything, even when russia retreats it remains a completely burnt earth for decades, and therefore there must be very clear criteria and requirements for russia, as was the case with the requirements for the use of nuclear weapons, and not only from the side of the eu and nato, but also from the side

of asia, for example, china, which is quite clearly gave russia to understand that it is not he who is categorically against the use of nuclear weapons . oleksandr well, let's ask you one last question about this beautiful circus. so, in your professional opinion, it is completely shaky, then putin lost, putin left, putin covered up in any case, but the fact that prigozhin actually carried out his own march throw to moscow through a large number of regions and in a few hours, one of the largest cities of russia, rostov-on-don, voronezh, was captured in a few hours. actually , if we talk about what russia looks like now, we have said a lot that it

is moving towards north korea, but you know that what was happening in russia, this is sudan in its purest form, there was absolutely the same situation with the establishment of a private military company that was integrated into the structure of the ministry of defense, but refused to obey it, and due to the efforts of the ministry of defense , subduing this structure just began the mutiny and the fact that an agreement was reached with the victim only means that putin realized that he did not have the resources to simply destroy the rebels, because from the russian point of view they had to be destroyed, which means that he was not sure that he could hold moscow, and actually speaking, you know what happened here in these cities, everyone is very reminiscent of crimea in 2014, when then

they called themselves polite people, and now in wagner they called themselves good people who use and so on. and we can say that the vertical of putin's power she showed her it is absolutely ineffective if it is necessary to protect the state and its citizens. actually, it failed to stop and protect putin himself , which means that putin's power is not something absolute. actually, it seems to me that his foreign allies and the elite of russia will also come out of this. well, and this is very, very good for us, sir. we know there . i would like to say one more important point, what are the consequences of this , if the beauty is released

? let's say a repetition of one situation when e shchemil basayev made a raid on any town, took him to the hospital, took hostages, and then he was released, this led to the multiplication of terrorist attacks, and russia seems to have been fighting this for 10 years after that, and if prigozhin succeeds, he got everything he wanted, then we can expect a repetition from the front returning parts, we know that dozens of them are deserting with weapons, and in fact such a march to moscow may happen again . participation in the program thank you for your professional comments and answers to my question, it was oleksandr leonov, executive director of the penta applied research center well , according to the rules of tv, we are forced to go for a short commercial, but a very short one, see you in a few minutes, join the community

with a ukrainian view of the world become a sponsor of the espresso youtube channel. and this is access to exclusive content, personal thanks , pinned comments, special icons there , the possibility of personal communication with the espresso team, click sponsor and become part of the community with a ukrainian perspective, the world during the war is on espresso again before introducing my next guest and moving on to the discussion of the next block of questions, i will do what i always do, sum up the answers to the question that we asked you on youtube on a specially created channel for programs the world during the war yes, we asked you today if prigozhin has shaken putin 's position well, the answers are as usual three yes no your option yes so 71% think so, 26% think no, 4%

have their own option their option can be read in the comments and thank you very much to all 1,340-47 e people who are currently watching us on our special channel for the world at war program and in general to everyone who watches us online where we have not been turned off and on the main espressov youtube channel well, let's move on to the second part of today's program is for me, vladyslav, a couple of paraponov, an analyst, an interview with ukraine , a co-founder of the institute of americanists , americans, vladyslav, congratulations, glory to ukraine, glory to the heroes, thank you for participating. well, let's summarize now. i will introduce the audience so that they understand what we are going to talk about. well, at least during my first question, in the event that russia uses nuclear weapons in ukraine, it will be considered an attack on nato. therefore, in the upper house of the american congress

, it was presented to the senate by republican senator relinzi graham and democratic senator richard blumenthal, in their opinion, the adoption of the resolution will be a signal for the leadership of the russian federation that the use of nuclear weapons could lead to a war with nato, and no one wants that, or obviously nato will react to it, well, but at the same time, i must also emphasize that this resolution, even if it is adopted in the senate, will not have a binding of a nature for the executive power, and only a recommendation will remain , mr. vladyslav, in your professional opinion, even if it is only recommendations - a recommendation in nature, and if it is passed in the congress in the senate - it will be important for us. well, look, i think that we we have to proceed from two positions for the time being, it will be adopted or or it will not be adopted

and in general, it is conditional or uh, should such a resolution be registered at all, yes or no , i think it is still worth it, because if you choose between uh, the absence of this discussion and in particular in let's say this in the corridors of the so-called american establishment and in particular the congress, i think that in reality it will definitely not interfere because again, it is very important, uh, also those symbolic messages that carry a resolution by themselves. in my opinion, they three first - it is very symbolic that this pair of senators has been registering many resolutions in support of ukraine for a long time, starting with a resolution that would call on the state department to recognize russia as a sponsor of terrorism to this one, and in april, if you remember, there was a resolution in support of

the essence of the actions of the united states that would have ensured the victory of ukraine. this is also , in principle, these senators, and it is precisely those who registered it, and it is very important that they represent more than one party. work and that's it at these briefings, when initiatives are announced, well, to me personally, they look like such a single team. i have the impression that they work there every day together . yes, and they only work on this, it is very symbolic and very important, especially in those times when from time to time we hear calls for a reduction in support. the second is that this resolution, again, if it is adopted, yes, it calls for the start of consultations, that is, between the members of nato the day before, i think

this is a very relevant issue. it is important that this the resolution was just registered to the website, that is, in essence, i understand that the senators are hoping that president biden would take the initiative to consult before the summit, and at the summit to discuss something substantive that you then went into the final column, at least that would be the case in my opinion logically, and thirdly, which is also no less important, in fact, this resolution as a whole returns yes to such a general american and essentially atlantic discourse in general regarding precisely the safety of the nuclear power plant in ukraine in particular of the zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, because without exaggeration, the speed of er means changes in er different events. in fact, i think that the american public could theoretically miss it, but here it is a different matter when er, in essence, american

senators talk about it and accordingly this is a completely different level of discussion and here, as they say, it will not work to ignore it because, again, if such professional, experienced, and influential senators register such a resolution, it means that really, as they say , we are approaching such a critical moment ago again, if you have to choose between the fact that this resolution does not exist and that it is registered, then of course it is good for us that it is registered because at least - this will definitely turn the attention of the white house once again and as a result it may turn out that then the white house, let's say, is faced with several options for the development of events, or something independently or in cooperation with

these senators, yes , it means uh, to say what here is what you have even more specific proposals uh, let's uh, together uh work yes and respectively this, again, will definitely turn the attention of the american public, which as a result may be caused, that is, may result in an increase in aid to ukraine specifically to prevent the consequences of this possible disaster or at least a quick response if there are still the same provocations that the ukrainian authorities talked about last week very actively p vladyslav well, what you say is even good for us .

it will be passed in the congress and you say that now the democrats are working together with the republicans in tandem, what worries me more is whether the republican party will support it, because we know there is a group of lensi grand. for me, this is personally a person of the same buregan sentiment against russia. do they support this the position of some other representatives of the republican party in the senate in the chamber, well, now we are talking about the senate, and those who came from trump's side. well, that's also the case that, in fact, even the initiatives that i mentioned came from this pair of senators they were actually not actually supported and so far there are still only registered resolutions, but you know, i will say that in fact the resolutions have not even been adopted . they also actually have weight because, accordingly, when new ones come, let’s say people to the congress. they also look there , which resolutions were registered, at what time