[000:00:00;00] that they are preparing to create er or commit a terrorist act in your opinion, is it possible in a fairly short period of time or not, i am among those who are quite skeptical about such a possibility in quotes, in fact, it is an impossibility , you know how serious a nuclear disaster is and therefore, in order to avoid it, it is possible and necessary for us to do everything possible, and not only for a, but also for international partners, now e , an international organization is seriously involved, and you know how to the reserve line. as far as i know, the power transmission is connected. this means that the coolers for nuclear reactors now receive electricity from the outside, and this is a small but positive news, because i will remind you that since september of last year

, the zaporizhia nuclear power plant has shut down all nuclear power units and removed them for this operation four are already cold, one is still hot, and the fifth is about him. efforts to ensure that there is no threat from this fifth rector . at the same time, we understand that energodar is under temporary occupation and there is a different path than deoccupation and the demilitarization of the zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to ensure real security when we say well, now we guarantee that nuclear security on the territory of ukraine and the whole of europe is now ensured until this happens, until we return full control over the zaporizhia nuclear power plant, we must be

alert and prepare for any screenwriters diana this was valentin nalyvaichenko, people's deputy of ukraine, former head of the security service of ukraine, friends, we work live on the espresso tv channel, as well as on our social networks, for those who are now watching us live, please like our video and subscribe to our social networks further from us visiting andriy ryzhenko, expert of the center for defense strategies , captain of the first rank of the reserve, former deputy chief of staff of the navy of the armed forces of ukraine mr. andriy good evening, thank you joined our conversation. good evening, let's start mr. andriy with the situation on the eastern and southern fronts, er, literally, mr. valentin and i were talking about the fact that er, a month has passed since the beginning of the great counteroffensive, the counteroffensive of which was expected in the spring, but it began in the summer, as you

evaluated the progress of the armed forces of ukraine and the expectations that were from the counteroffensive and the results that we now have on er as of july 3, well, the emotional expectations were really very high there, but er, now i think that the armed forces of ukraine did as much as possible what was realistically done and in principle we see that the armed forces are moving forward both in the east and in the south, and in both directions they seize the initiative of the peculiarities of actions in the south there is the fact that the opponents for well, in fact, in six months a-a significantly er-e established themselves on these borders. he had time er-er but well, i think

that gradually our armed forces they a-a they see his er-e weaknesses here the enemy and see how the enemy can allow us to win the victory yes, we are identifying his personal places and moving forward. well, i think that in this formation it will be enough, and it is also important that we discovered the biggest obstacle to our offensive, this is the use of engineering fortifications, this is the use of mines, massive, very massive, mines. so this is also the application of tactical aviation, in particular helicopters, which, as it were, against

which uh, we need to have some kind of countermeasure in our hands, then i think, but the work that is being done now has a very serious significance for the prospective build-up efforts of andrei zelensky in an interview with cnn said that the war will not end until crimea is under occupation. he said that he would not consider peace without crimea a victory. he said that his ultimate goal is the liberation of the annexed crimea in 2014. we cannot imagine ukraine without crimea, and as long as crimea is under russian occupation , this means that only one war is not over yet

. e can they they will end up in that mouse trap that we once talked about with you in one of the broadcasts that in crimea, in principle, all the armies that were driven not into the crimean peninsula were all defeated because the crimean peninsula well, it is not successful from the point of view of launching a war there more victory if you are attacked well, you see it like this a-a well, a double interpretation because er-er well, we all er -er will say attempts to seize crimea they always er-er means lasted for quite a long period of time it was their times er-er it means crimea war and then the advancing party had an advantage in 4 times according to a-a means land formations and 6-9 times according to the photo and then it means

that sevastopol was actually chosen for 350 days during the second world war also er-e means the operation to seize crimea continued well here a little less than a year, but well, the situation is really like this now, there are many factors that can buy the liberation of crimea. i absolutely agree that, well, now , in principle , it is clear to many, many countries on the globe that crimea will be used by the russian federation for the purpose of a military projector of power or the dead sea and into the atlantic, as it was in the soviet union, but a little if there was such a relaxation when, after the collapse of the soviet union, crimea

was under the control of ukraine, really then , in general, despite the fact that there were military groups there, but oh well such and such a strategic goal was not realized because crimea was under the control of ukraine , and now we see that over these nine years , in fact, russia has withdrawn its forces and bastions there and has now restored its presence the earth sea and military bases are being built in sudan, and in fact, well, it restores the influence that existed in soviet times, that is why it will really try to defend the country by military means, including crimea, indeed , the deprivation of the country's logistical supply routes can affect the ability to lead the enemy of this baron and right now, the operation in

the south is being attempted to block this supply corridor through the azov region, through which 75% of cargo passes, including military goods , another hub is the crimean bridge through it 25% is supplied. that is, if these two routes are to be zeroed out, then the supply will actually be impossible, only the sea route is where the cargo is, the volume of cargo there is much less , so, well, how about uh, well, again, now there are a lot of other factors that affect the prospect of returning control over crimea, including a significant geopolitical weakening of the kremlin after this er buch prigozhin is because, well, in general, to a certain

extent, russian society is demoralized to a certain extent , the military er, we understand that there and among the elites of the elites have different views on the expediency of waging war against ukraine and other measures. they feel very serious about the economic losses associated with this war, so i think ah well, in the case of our successes in the south and east, it is possible er, well, this operation to liberate crimea will be er, well, it may not have such a linear character. let's say that it is not only military. well, again, what we see now is that the russians are really preparing, they are transferring forces to crimea, they are transferring additional

air defense systems even from far east ot and nu they are, as it were, preparing for this defense, how it will turn out in reality, because well, as for russia, it is not very predictable , well, as an example, again, there is what happened a little more than a week ago during this well-known prigozhin march to moscow in an interview with cnn, zelenskyi also stated that in vorokh he will definitely not dictate the conditions in the black sea, the occupiers will have to be just as afraid to approach our ukrainian crimea and our shores of the sea of ​​azov. which russian ships are already afraid to approach of our black sea coast, in spite of all the grouping of the black sea fleet of the russian federation p. andriy was and remains quite powerful in the black sea basin, obviously , no other country has as many ships as russia, or am i wrong? well

, the russian grouping is quite so powerful for the countries which have grips only on the black sea, this is really a very strong powerful group, only turkey has more, but the majority of its naval forces are all for the earth's sea, but well, how about the same thing what is dangerous for us is that they have a number of ships that fire missiles of this caliber, this number has even increased because they have now completed the construction of three corvettes of the karakurt type in kerch at the zalyv plant and they are part of this azov naval district and each of them has eight rocket-caliber missiles, as well as on frigates and corvettes of the buyan type, that is, in principle, we need a lot to do in order to implement what our

president says, one more question is quite important andrii - this is the stay of the wagnerites in belarus, today there was information that this tent camp has already been built for about 8,000 wagnerites. in an interview with cnn, zelensky also mentioned putin's reaction to the weakness of nadia wagnerites, the current weakness of the master of the kremlin, let's see what the supreme leader said the commander-in-chief of the armed forces of ukraine, we see putin's reaction to the hope of the wagnerites, it is weak, we see that he does not control everything, the wagnerites easily moved around russia and captured populated areas with ease putin does not control the situation the region does not control the security situation. in general, we all understand that his entire army is now on the territory of ukraine, almost all of it, that is why the wagnerites went so easily, because who was supposed to stop them, mr. andrii, who was supposed to stop

the wagnerites, and how is this story about the mutiny, because it was a mutiny, it is necessary to recognize a failed mutiny or the mutiny , which i gave up, will have a further effect on the internal russian situation. well, of course, on the russian-ukrainian front and, in particular, on the stay of the wagnerites in belarus. of the russian federation, they are now in ukraine, this number is about 400,000 military personnel, which, by the way, is more than twice as many as there were at the beginning of hostilities in february of last year. well , as far as you are concerned, they were really used where, in principle, ordinary units, well,

they could not decide task and to solve this task, they are solely due to such a very strict discipline. well, and such, oh, very risky, let's say, tactical actions, they gave some limited success, but that's all was accompanied by very large losses, we also know about them. well, we know that vajner, in principle, is beautiful, was created by putin , we know that he existed, he developed at the expense of uh, budget funds, my uh, the russian federation and uh, except for ukraine, so very uh well, let's say that a delicate task is also being solved in other regions of the world. well, for example, in africa. and there, in principle, russia has control thanks

to the wagner group, the control of the political influence , including now. well, when after this uprising, when putin... so he understood that not everything is as good as it seems and that, in principle, it can eh well, how would it end very, uh safely for him and that well, the elites around him and his military also do not all support eh, etc. ah he does well, he and he automatically connected it really with vamir because it was careful in the respect of a certain for those years that i just well, in principle, i said and well, really he will now be the maximum to iron out here

, lukashenka's position is very interesting because, in principle, formally he there, let's say, animated russia from that march on moscow what actually happened without obstacles and in these 7 hours they actually traveled 700 km and that's all all this talk about what they are going to the thresholds directly to moscow, well, in principle, it's not very serious because it was actually the last the parts they had were more or less fake, and they already began to remove parts from the front, by the way. they began to invite the otc countries to provide specialists, they sent such specialists to belarus, they say that the iranians allegedly built iranian military specialists there

panic and well, i think that i agree with the fact that the life of suicide comes to us in danger because well, he became such a personal enemy of putin, not so much as physical from this as well, what does this authority have to do not only with these military scales to build up in russian military societies, elites, and so on. and that’s why it’s so about the wagners themselves, we know that only one percent of them signed a contract with the ministry of defense of russia, but how could they also not really understand that reverse return maneuver so they are also different there also two opinions. i think that wagner's stay for er lukashenka is er, well, it is also dangerous because well, how would er, well, the difference in

combat training between them and the belarusian military is even greater than the military of the russian armed forces, and wagner himself is also there such consequences can be very different. we remember how worried lukashenko was when he discovered these 30 wagnerites in the 20th year, when there uh, well, they were planning to fly - fly through ukraine, there was an operation and so on, and here there are many more of them we see with our eyes tamboron, that's why the situation is so ambiguous, on the other hand, there is putin's influence on peshchenko, and poroshenko may try to somehow gain putin 's additional support and collect some loans, because , well, without putin, the future of lukashenko is also very unclear, so it's very,

very much. such a combination results in a lot of dimensions and, uh, speaking of the father, this panda is so attractive, yes, in some cases, so toxic and dangerous , so it is very interesting how it will go on, but i think it is dangerous for borussia to have such troops there, but for ukraine, what does this mean, that is, their stay is also a risk , considering the fact that, in principle, the northern front and the northern border of ukraine were also preparing and were preparing quite carefully for a possible campaign or the russians from belarus again or belarusians from the republic of belarus or other forces, well, that is, there is nothing to fear for us on the half -northern border, what what? we must

pay attention to this fact and carefully monitor the situation, because well, there may be different events, and the fact that they can act as a subversive intelligence, not groups in the north of our country , that's for sure, that's why we need to go after him here. means of surveillance and means of destruction, but, well, we guys need to follow carefully here. thank you, mr. andriy. this was andriy ryzhenko of the expert center for defense strategies , captain of the first rank of the reserve, former deputy chief of staff of the navy of the armed forces of ukraine, friends, we are working live of the espresso tv channel also on our social networks and on the youtube platform, if you are currently watching us on youtube or on facebook

, be sure to like our video so that it can be promoted in youtube trends . well, subscribe to our social media, every support is yours for us it is important to remind you once again that we are conducting a survey on youtube and we are asking you about the following: do you support ukraine's accession to nato? yes, no, your option at the moment, 96% voted yes, 4% believe that this accession to nato is not necessary. the majority of our viewers who are now watching us for joining nato, the vast majority of viewers, we are still in touch valery chalyi diplomat extraordinary plenipotentiary ambassador of ukraine to the united states of america in 2015-2019 mr. valery i congratulate you and

i am glad to see you on our broadcast greetings in return glory to ukraine glory to the heroes july 11-12, valery, the nato summit will be held in vilnius, the ukrainian authorities say that they want to receive a signal from the alliance, in particular, a clear schedule of accession or security guarantees, if there is no such signal, what will it mean before all add my vote to your poll i'm for 97%. and because for us it will mean that we share the responsibility for european security with other countries, that is, ukraine should not maintain this defense alone all the time, we need us to be together in the alliance well , actually, ukraine can also make its contribution , so i do not consider now in the context of what this will mean. i believe that the key decisions will be made in washington next

year at the anniversary meeting of nato , i would still expect this same activity from him for me, the statement about the provision of missiles for attacks and other missiles with a greater range of action is important, this is that we just needed everything related to political decisions as of yesterday, so this should be a certain signal to the kremlin, no matter how they phrased it, that the kremlin's blackmail did not materialize and that ukraine will be in nato , but not in the way it was formulated before, to open the door , it is the most open door that they cannot crawl into. but in some specific format, they are not ready to say now , finally, throw this bridge over to washington and remove all the questions, all the security guarantee formulas of transitional periods, some new algorithm formulas, that's all that should be left in the past, now the question is

the group or so and then p valeriu may 5 , 22 sweden and finland as candidates for nato membership received guarantees of security from the alliance during the process of joining nato, can ukraine receive the same guarantees, they did not receive a guarantee from the alliance, they received a guarantee from the nuclear power of great britain, which guaranteed them access to nato in security as a nuclear power for this period the state such guarantees from the nuclear power of the usa or britain can be everything else, this is a conversation there, we can talk about more help, weapons, help, farewell military-industrial complex, to jointly develop this is what ukraine wants to hear, and where is the dispute, what will it be called, the e- rangement

karateka mitmans, i am telling you as a person with experience , this is all yesterday, now the kremlin needs such a signal, where there is no need to play language games, it needs to be clear, if i emphasize once again, we are not ready to solve everything in lithuania, then washington has a year to go everything should be decided ukraine must receive an invitation as the results themselves in vilnius may affect the course of the russian-ukrainian war because these results are waiting for the cream, it is obvious that the joining of ukraine to nato, the decision on this could also become a point of the formula for a reliable and just peace and a very serious signal which, if we analyze its consequences, would save the lives of our people simply , that is, if these nato countries now told ukraine we invite your blackmail it did not work as

you told us that the expansion of nato would cause actions of russia yes, all the actions of russia have already been done, it swallowed the membership of finland and the expansion took place with a copper basin, all attempts to stop it will be the same and faster and the same can happen with ukraine, there is only one homework left for ukraine, let's defend ourselves, this can be done even after an invitation there is a political one at the moment and well, the will of vence because you know the strong will of the leaders of all countries, well, the strong will of the leaders of all countries, well, the strong part of the body, you wanted to say , please tell me, why is it too much with such

with reservations, with such uh fear, they approach this question well, the war is going on, they understand that russia considers nato or nato countries as participants in the current war , putin speaks publicly about this, that is, what worse scenario do they expect from a nuclear war, or what are they afraid of they are not afraid of a direct confrontation between russia and a nato country, they do not know how it will end , there was no such test, and they fear very seriously that their readiness is not sufficient for today , so they concentrated all their efforts on nato countries there, they provide security reinforcement seriously after a large-scale invasion, but so far they have a hard time understanding that it is more profitable for them to have a buffer zone, like ukraine - this is and pragmatically, many advise, well, look, the ukrainians with our help restrain this huge army. so why

come up with something, some model in other words, we need to concentrate on preventing exactly er invasion of the nato country or somewhere it says. it is correct that it will be eternal and it is better to join forces with ukraine, which has a million of the motivated and professionally trained defense forces. well, actually, then jointly close the eastern flank, poland says so, the baltic countries say so, slovakia, that is , our neighbors are close , france has changed its position somewhat to a more active one. you can't make a decision during the war, well, it doesn't stop a political decision, which can be made with certain periods of implementation, so i think that this is still in the paradigm of russia's fears, even though they are

already afraid of where they are going, the force must show its strength otherwise, he or she will show weakness, and i emphasize once again. i am not saying that it should be done immediately, right today, although it would be better , but the window of opportunity for nato is not so large now, i would single out nato as an opportunity this year and the next. this is where events can develop further in such a way that nato can be divided in the event of a mistake and then both parts of nato will weaken, that is, this scenario is possible and they also understand about it , moreover, ukraine outside the alliance, in my opinion , is definitely a worse situation for them, too. in terms of resources, collective defense is cheaper. and since the ukrainians have already mastered a large number of nato types of weapons, in principle, it is logical that there is interoperability if the armed forces joined nato, i think they would make a decision faster, but everything is standing in the way , not only internal, there are