[000:00:00;00] the only airtime two hours of your time two hours to find out about the war and what the world is like 2 hours to keep up with economic news and new sports two hours in the company of favorite presenters presenters who have become like-minded to many as well as distinguished guests of the studio events of the day in two hours big air of vasyl winter, a project for intelligent and caring people in the evening, nayspresso, our current guest, oleksandr morozov, a famous political scientist , a teacher at charles university in prague, glory to ukraine, oleksandr, i congratulate you, glory to ukraine , good day, glory to the heroes. well, what is the key

history is what happened in russia after the putsch, the pseudo-putsch, the failed putsch, is it a coup in the form of a coup? we understand that, in principle , putin formally remained in power . before the fact that this strange march on maska actually took place, and for three months, the master was invited , mercilessly and viciously criticized the ministry of defense and the general staff, and in the end, even the president's administration mentioned the russian one, well, the words already sounded in his head, and the condemnation of vladimir putin as a person who will be the supreme leader in the military enlistment poorly leads a military company, tell us, as if shouting, i am turning to putin, this war must go to the destruction of ukraine, that is, to the complete destruction as the state or i now, we need to stop everything

, we need to consolidate, we will defend it in their article in april, the month was brought exactly so directly and formulated it, and this is the central the topic of the bunch must be told that the weight of the question is broken because they are what this is. let him be brought to the middle of this, he could not prove that he understood that he chose a personal object very far away, and well, the question remains, and it remains, as it were, and is the most important in the fate of the day if you look at it from the side of the kremlin, now i have to introduce putin until he answers, we see, er, and they see it. it seems to me now that all the experts, military and political observers of different countries see, er, a continuation of both trends, that is, from the same country, er it is clearly visible that the kremlin is strengthening its turnover and at the same time voices are sounding and continue to sound loudly, and actually it is dmitry medvedev with his newly created russian newspaper and the professor of the higher school

of economics and one of the main russian foreign policy specialists sergey karaganov, who will defeat all his with a call to drop all the nuclear charges directly on poland, on poznań, in other words, these two lines continue to sound like putin, as long as he can, and until after receiving it, yes, in my opinion, he did not answer, i specifically did not answer his окресные а-а и руководишь в российским кадром so they are responsible for the question. what is the further logic of the war ? we hear voices . i didn't see anything else, but at the same time, in medvedev's article there is an additional case, an additional option , which is called that, in principle, we did not

demand so much from nato that it collect manatkas and pick them up at the border in 1997. so here he is is already beginning to formulate the whole matter in a slightly different way, perhaps even significantly differently, but with that, the position of medvedev’s karaganov is somewhat different, and i have not seen them like this in spite of the monstrous plane of hostilities that he directs in the direction of the leadership of all i'm the country of the entire surrounding world, but at the same time, there's something like that. but it's also almost a prigozhin note , that is, it's also a kind of appeal to putin . it's a kind of question. what could be necessary? moves to the second scenario. and there is no further scaling, so what is the problem if it is very simple to formulate? the point is that when something happened in 2014 , and a certain crimea happened, we put a point in this topography and asked ourselves where is the second point through which a straight line will pass, the second point passed - eto

it was 2020, when putin adopted the conditional amendments, he ensured himself eternal rule, and the question arises, where is the third point, and here is the third point, and it happened on the 20th of the second year. we have three points on a straight line and there is a fourth point. and how it's not sad, it's terrible to realize, it's the fourth point, it's not the point of seeking, that is, there's no further, if you look along the line of these three points , because putinism has been sanitized in the last 10 years, it's impossible to predict anything except for some

kind of miraculous escalating at the expense of which putin will try to get out somehow for a rublek, that is, uh, putin will not go to any peace treaty , truce, compromise, no concept, he is there, yes, nothing of this. the world has to get ready for this, well , think about it, and don’t just describe it . and so to speak, it is preparing for certain resources with a certain opportunity to counter the fourth point of the fourth point , well, options for escalation, alexander, let’s we will consider what the first option for escalation could be, which was hinted at by the president of the united states, joseph biden, the use of tactical nuclear weapons, but we are currently correcting the situation at the zaporizhia nuclear plant, so we understand that the russian interventionists are preparing something extremely unpleasant there, so we understand that they have now taken it out of state so from the so-called cold shutdown to a state of hot

shutdown, an additional reactor on duty , we understand that it is possible that they are preparing a man-made man-made catastrophe in this way one of the largest nuclear plants on the continent, and accordingly, formally, so to speak, it is not a strike on a known tactical nuclear bomb, but the consequences will be no less, but then the west is faced with a big dilemma , how to respond to such a thing, because we will hear the bleating, the sanding, or someone else who will say no, it's not a moment, you understand it, something like that happened, well, we know their excuses , no one will believe it, but the protocol of actions changes in response, yes. this is the most important question. said the matter is not whether there will be some er directly now, that is, a terrorist

attack on zaporizhskaya itself, this is not our station . очень много м-м вечество санривів i would say that three such answers to the question here, eh, what kind of kolocii would like to cream the skis, there are three possibilities, one possibility is the one that is the most harmless for the kremlin. they are it say they are sitting on their sofas and waiting for the fact that the request will somehow crack and they will crack such a split for various reasons. well , there, for economic reasons or for some reason, the countries will not withstand further tension related to the war, there may just be some european ones societies of individual countries are waiting for this. yes, let us give such data in sociology as if there is consistent support of ukraine, they use the support of the population in

these countries. initiatives of third countries, this is the first moment that the kremlin is counting on and escalation when it goes. well , how would such a further barricade simply happen? then the second plan in comparison with this imaginary alliance eh from the early days of china there and eh there may be two more three countries that somehow construct their main second point is that it is completely impossible now to exclude and много данные бесплатно что всей-таки ети шесть месяцев, although they were in the foreground, not in the media, but behind their backs , the russian general staff was conducting the retraining of reservists and contract workers both on the territory of belarus and not only those who were mobilized

in september, since then six months have passed, they are already prepared, plus for this, as i heard, er, on this , er, 50,000 contingent of the ukrainian intelligence service is concentrated in the russian general staff there in the bakhmuta area, in other words, the kremlin and it is impossible to sleep , it will not go on the way to the offensive . there is such a place in this political system that everything that does not happen is a plus for him. but they have a problem.

he was trying to achieve military success, in any case, they were braving this, yes, he built his longing on this, his political takeoff , he built his rating on it, which is quite high, and he will knock out the political pole, but they can't offer gerasim anything and these are very dangerous things and they are definitely forced in such a situation to strive to carry out an offensive operation, this will be a very difficult story alexander, in any case , we remember that they made titanic attempts to implement one or another of their monstrous plans, so the armed forces of ukraine and our general staff stopped them, knocked them out and began to counterattack. how successful will they be, because it will be quick, it will probably be unsuccessful, but it will be bloody, and here is the third scenario connected with some very sharp move inside. of hybrid

actions and of course, this is a man-made one-day catastrophe, what kind of hybrid action is it because the kremlin is really successful in hybrid actions? мы and why мы determine the evidence that it's us, uh, well, when presented, they start, as you know, immediately jump to us somewhere to the side and say that, well, yes, maybe it's someone from us, but it's not the one we gave in general, there is a lot of territory. we have seen it, the territory of the kremlin is still modernly occupied by a boeing, and in this sense , the word, it is not changed by their rhetorical strategy , and it may be correct. wholesale laconic

cables at the bottom of the oceans and uh, that's the same thing. what a large-scale attack on global banking, so there may be some rather dangerous, not necessarily nuclear explosion , uh, close to us, but let's say in the baltic sea with big consequences, that is, somewhere where human casualties will be minimal, and the consequences of m radiation will hit, say, according to public opinion, there are 10 or 12 dishes and so on and so on . the russian media need to say that uh, in the russian media, especially on political talk shows, there is just such a competition, an endless project about how it is possible to go further by escalation to a crazy level, and it’s not just words, because if the invasion is until february in the 22nd year, it would be possible to say that but this is postmodernism, these clowns are practicing on television , now that a year and a half of the war has passed, it

is completely clear to everyone that this is not clowning at all, but there are real scenarios being pumped out, and in the end, some of them it is being realized, but the question is, is what they talk about at all those crazy shows there , skabeivshchyna, and so on, different from what they talk about in the bunker ? he caught the main trends or the main messages that he voiced in a rather exotic form for him, of course, he voices such readiness before the nato summit, which will begin on july 12. the community

has a high degree of hatred in this state because we all hate you . такой что, don't try, you won't do anything to us, of course, this all reflects the position of a small student, precisely because the rhetoric of putin himself is stylistically different. he is the only one who comes from the thoughts of a collective request. this is what he usually says in such cases, or there is a global one with the support of ukraine, in this case, he will not be able to break this, which means krevel's will to commit suicide. however, they clearly see what we will say with the same rhetoric how medvedev used to speak, for example, the president of the morning in one, not even literally very close, sending such a curse directly into the shooting, not he stood up , stood up, part of the hall left just so that they would not listen, but still, ira was not in a position there, i am a member of your danger, he was a nuclear state, and in this sense the word here is a problem, it is a real problem because

, you know, i think the whole world looks at them honestly , they speak honestly, and i think that all problems are definitely a simple, short and merciless solution. politicians are impossible, no one, as it were, from the leaders of the countries that are part of the global alliance, it is not agreed upon such a solution , although it would be short and correct, as if it would disappear. move in a more rational direction, in any case, the degree of this suicide, these suicidal attempts will be self-asserted by number scenes, because of such true blackmail. well, of course, it would decrease, oh, no one does not expect that the russian federation will apply some democratic form, it will follow the democratic path of development, but in in any case, this continuous escalation will stop. unfortunately, this path is not possible in this way, and this is still

one and only scenario, this is a slow escalation of the possibility opportunities of ukraine for further struggle and what is it all about, the collective people of the bureau, yes, these are the people who pretended that they knew nothing about what the beauty is preparing, well, formally , the beauty, yes. in fact, i can't even imagine who was behind the beauty, how deep, that is, the head, or rather director of the fsb bortnikov is the secretary of the security council patrushav, and i cannot believe that they did not know that they did not prepare scenarios and so on, or a completely open management circuit. or maybe they achieved their goal, that is, they played like this say the only thing they didn't add, well, about this or that scenario, do you remember khrushchev's resignation? well, putin would have flown somewhere even further away for

a couple of days longer, and he wouldn't have returned when i was wrong. saw there it jumped to look at the chronicle of this to get it on the one hand it is obvious that uh no there could be such a situation in which two weeks are being prepared march some kind yes still how cool 5,000 people there participated technology it could not be a solution one day yes, it means that the management of fm military intelligence and undoubtedly the leadership of the federal security service of the russian federation should have been aware of what was happening, but we still do not know who and what was reporting to putin because they had prepared for this situation.

and so far. well, it says that in this management system it is already very heavy . oborony thinks well, this is not our problem, this is what the fsb should deal with or talk about. this is already happening on the territory of the rostov region, accordingly, it is waiting for the president to inform on facebook, for example, uh, and only after this , there will be some instructions, but why don't they inform in one word, hang up everything is a knot he is from this side but strange swordsman that you said the fact is that it is still clearly visible that there is no alliance conditionally consisting of a construction there than from the kyrienko shaygu or something similar or it is possible to construct a second one. well, in general, if you take this example, then yes, it is possible to present a structure of 3-4 people in different situations , who say to themselves that it is time to take responsibility for the situation, indeed , that putin started everything. it is too far that

the commanders are completely standing, well, it is clear something that showed up in any way in any hit enters a bunch not um further in this way now uh, i have no doubt that putin uh, this is what he will put on the table at the end, the results are there , interrogations, questions in the conversation yes который сейчас are conducted with a large group of people by employees of the prosecutor's office and the military general prosecutor's office and the fsb in order to understand what will be presented as a result . in any case, it did not happen, and if the polit bureau talks about it in the end, then it is possible to say firmly that it is in the diesel orientation in this sense, but it is not in the position to have moved from

the point where the video is located. people are gathering to move further, so to speak, and if he is together with putin, then tell me that none of them are gathering in the kitchen to form some kind of delicious coalition , yes, they are conspirators, but on the other hand, well, this is also a heretical assumption, and maybe they really achieved what they wanted and did using the good old formula , they tricked the fool into four fists, let 's make the handsome whistle because you're more stupid, and the handsome ran accordingly. he is not sure who he can rely on and does not know in general what and how to do , and here they can offer certain new additional cases, combinations of personnel, possible reshuffles, and so on .

and the patient is in her power , no doubt from the point of view of how many fates there are, his biography is troubling. the beneficiaries of all of this will take time, not that it means that the beneficiaries in russian politics for a long time will be all those who participate in the military company of independent positions and with you, but in addition to this , these are the alleged donors of pushcha, or at least they are not donors, but those who showed loyalty to putin now, they really don't just get bonuses, but they really take putin in a box, that is, how would i say it, packed it in a box, because if i don't find it, only when so that the situation will be very difficult. why? because putin

is actually quite weak-willed and it must be said that in critical moments he never made a quick and good decision . they believe that it is never wrong, yes, this all together is based on the fact that there was a measurable time, so when there would be another way, well, now the wars, and at the same time, he has a bundle, he is there, the employees of the fes, who surround him, are not very confident in that is, who is here, who is further away, that is, listens to the external situation . of course, i agree with the fact that putin cannot feel as confident as he did 10 years ago in a situation when he had to be informed 10 years ago. uh, in the immediate environment, and here are the printouts of these conversations, he will not laugh, but now his situation is second , and he is in the war, uh, and every critical

moment threatens him, simply put , so much that he will fall off the cliff together with his entire military company, therefore i think what is it, unfortunately, if you are finally forming the whole of putinism, imagine such a creeping right-wing revolution , that is, such a slow-moving right-wing revolution, not a one-day one, but in what parts through points, and here it is through bottoms and torations, it’s a hop and one more, as it were right, well, there is not much good here, because the core of the people who stop the entrance are also recognized by the hawkish hawks - on the one hand, they are the supporters of the next rock, and on the other hand, they are also on the side of something so that all this russian public swamp was finally cleared. yes, it has already been cleared. now they will clear the apparently too

loud mountain of patriots, who probably already annoy these fsb officers, but as a result of these new rules of the coup, such a flower of evil will grow unconditionally or at all. not some kind of turn now, and not some kind of turn to a more rational policy, thank you oleksandr , i want to remind our viewers that espresso was working for them now oleksandr morozov, a well-known political scientist, a teacher at charles university in prague, the time of our program has run out, stay tuned to the espresso tv channel my colleagues will inform you about all the most important events of the day , watch out for each other until we meet on the air, it is difficult to get up and climb the stairs, old injuries and sprains constantly remind of themselves with sharp pain you need help, the knee brace

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