[000:00:00;00] ukraine is supported much more than the republicans. not because it is weak or strong, or because it is not fair, because ukraine was attacked in a neighboring state by an aggressor. of genocide and for all good things, this is what they demand from us that we must help ukraine, and on the other hand, we see that a large number of republicans are divided into two halves when the part supports trump, who he actively talks about what a remarkable vladimir putin is, how to negotiate with him, but we know that he just sent zelensky to moscow, or that he will leave , he agrees to sign everything that is offered to the deserter. seriously, it is not a division, but even so, the support is from two parties , but when the zil of the income of the euro budget

is here, there is such an interesting moment called china. and because they are looking at the fact that russia is a clear threat and the order is now the world order, which, as our military likes to repeat, brought peace to the world with prosperity and peace for the last 780 years. to protect this world order, we need to promote ours, we will support our allies. by the way, you will always be asked, and because china is a gigantic threat to us, china needs to be resisted. and that is why the big budget , which continues to only increase and is now a big one in general, is a reality. and if you have us, we will be ready china but my ukraine will be able to help enough, so here it is as if china and russia

turned out to be green together in the sense of the military budget and ours for national defense . potentially, his re-election to the new presidential term can bring us trouble because of how he is doing there and what are his allies busy with now . i know what kind of agreements they have there , but he is silent, as he only talks. when or if he is a cool dictator - this is the most cool thing that a person can be, that's why he would also like to do the same, and

his chances of winning the elections are small now , and it helps a lot because, well, how would it would be very scary if trump now came to power because he already runs his own operating company as a reward to someone . there are a lot of people at the moment, and that's why he just has lists of enemies and it would be very dangerous if he came to power . well, for now, we see that he is going non -stop. his length and after that he must pass all will soon lose the elections to biden because in those few states, for example, our wisconsin, which is a purple state , because here we have villages

that vote for republicans and big games. the fate of the country for the next 4 years and for one world, so i would like to pass on such greetings from ukraine , because we turned out to be all connected by ours , so to speak, this is such a small thing planet p yuriu and what kind of perspe does the governor of florida ron desantis currently have, you know? it's surprisingly small. he already has to prove to all his sponsors that he has some kind of plan, that it is incredibly important for him now to be on stage with trump so that people can see that how would it be at all in may, he does not know how much he wants to be debated by all the other candidates in which, with the exception of desantis, there is one , two, three percent of support for desantis, somewhere around 17, and for trump, 50, so why is it for trump

in general, they communicate with these wonderful people, but here, as well as at a distance, i am simply terrible because he speaks with difficulty , people shy away from him, and he turned out to be much more conservative than trump, and he scared all these women. from the suburbs, which the republican party needs so much because i kicked them, er . this is a year and a half before the elections, new stars appear, they change in this constellation, and then in the end everything will return to most likely to trump, but now there is an indian businessman who apparently wants to be trump for the next generation , he is quite popular in the republic, and the paratrooper just happens he can't find his place under the sun in any way. well, this is such a difficult situation. well, i think that he hopes that trump will be removed from the presidential race through the courts, because it is already

being discussed whether it is possible to protect trump in prison if he sits down because when he gets to court if when they do it he drags it hard for him when she is in court he very often loses a-a well mostly practically and always that's why languishing in tasks drags on a but if you don't succeed well if he loses he may end up in prison. and how can he be elected from there without problems, says the former

attorney general of president obama . this is also a good moment, because now we see that the numbers that are hanging are leading to the elections. what is happening with the economy? on the life of ordinary americans, so to speak, and it is moving in very good directions, it works very much now, it is just asked , er , every month we hear information that lyceums are moving . control is the lowest in the last two years , that is , how would people in general ? if he created such an economic miracle prosperity this is how his recipe would be and we now offer you to follow his recipe, and on

the other hand he decided to embrace this and accept as strength the fact that he окончанию второй каденции he now sells himself as an experienced politician and in general grandpa joe and let's support grandpa joe такой almost что второй reagan and well, i think that compared to him, reagan will probably smoke on the sidelines because regina would never dare, well, it's possible to do who are you you know, someone can tell you the options, but what did baily do for ukraine? the american president even introduced himself to us. even franklin gave us roosevelt. when he helped great britain, we are talking about the second world war. what moods are currently being planned in the american society , is the support for ukraine

not fading away? first of all, of course, trump is pursuing his policy of the fact that it is necessary to stop helping everyone urgently, we are urgently returning everything here back to america, there are certain groups of people who, if they are for him, then they mean , as if the bad guy has a calculation vladimir putin is such a strong man, such a horse it looks so good half-naked a-a well, that's how it would be part she is there they are it's normal uh-uh in any society but similar to the majority of americans continues to definitely support ukraine with a foot from the other side we see that people get up, people want to, and also like ukrainians get up, they live in war. and in the whole world, i think in the middle states, too , we kind of get used to it. the fact that we, as it were, have been sitting for ukraine for so long, we continue to support it, and this is a very

big achievement for americans who are not famous for their focus and attention. ukraine is felt by many people in the united states in their usual musical performances in boston, but he did not tell about the fact that people always come after the performance , but some people who, because he sang a song about ukraine, decided to help even more, and they understand this how is it we all need eh how eh it was said to ring bells for everything ah we must continue to tell about what is happening in ukraine and it will not happen by itself it is the task of journalists eh to show because all the photos are all footage of the horrors of what is happening in ukraine ah, it seems to me that it is actually much stronger than any of paul's statements to each other because, in the end, we see kadry and we accept that ukraine needs to be saved, they will help because ukraine is fighting for us , because it is unfair, and because ukraine will win and russia must lose mm simply because evil must be punished, and therefore

the majority of americans from ukraine , they look at any statements of any politicians , we are definitely grateful to the american people for this fact and we hope that this support it will not fall, or at least it will not fall alarmingly because, in principle , this is the nature of the trend that it changes because it is very, very important for us. thank you for this excursion into the current political reality of the united states of america. rashkin's record was our island . next, let's talk about sanctions against the russian federation. russia is reducing oil exports. next month , 100-200 thousand barrels per day less than this will be exported from the country. but whether to reduce production the companies will decide on oil here, i would like to remind you that

members of the organization of petroleum exporters opec plus have been reducing oil supplies since november in order to support prices. the russian federation promised to reduce exports by 500,000 barrels per day in august, and saudi arabia continued to cut production by 1 million barrels per day. international sanctions against russia the world's largest field service company slb stops supplying products and technology to the russian federation to wind down its activities in russia , the company started back in march 22 and then it was announced that there will be no more new investments, they will also not implement new technologies used in its service business, the company said that the ban on cooperation with the russian federation now applies to all operations worldwide and not only on the territory of great britain , the united states of america, the european union and canada, earlier cooperation with the russian companies gazprom neft and rost neft brought slb 5% of its annual income, which is

about 28 billion dollars, contact us ivan from the chief consultant of the national of the institute of strategic studies, candidate of economic sciences, we wish you a good night, good night, good morning, studio and tv viewers, a little more night, it's almost morning . thank you that at such a time, which is not easy to tune in, you are with us live and we have the opportunity to talk with you, in particular, about what is happening in the russian economy, which is critically dependent on the export of e-e hydrocarbons , in particular oil and gas, let 's talk about oil, because this week blumber reported that the cost of russian oil for the first time since the introduction of so the so-called price ceiling for it has broken this figure of $60 and the experts of the publication describe it in such a way that this fact became a serious blow to the desire of our western allies

to restrain the flow of money to russia for the sale of oil, what happened and why russian oil has risen in price again, and first of all, these are global trends, that is, if you look at the graphs, perhaps the leading brand of oil in the world, brand v - there has been a certain increase in price, but i will not say that this is some kind of critical increase. that is , it has exceeded $ 80 per point, but we see that after all, when we talk about russia, we must still talk about the us, not nonsense . that is, it is russian oil and it still remains below the brand with a certain discount . as they say, the measure will also begin because there is this price ceiling on russian oil, which has been in effect since the end of december last year, and by the way, the effect was quite significant because, for example , according to the results of four months of the current year

, the income of the russian federation from oil exports decreased by 52% compared to the first four months of the previous year and this puts a lot of pressure on the russian budget, in fact, it forced the russian federation to review certain items of expenditure, and according to the results of the first half of the current year , a lot of things were cut, and as analysts note, this will have an impact on the russian federation in the coming months, simply because by cutting expenditures, you in fact, sometimes to deal a significant blow to the development of the economy in certain subjects of the federation, mr. ivan, but because of the sanctions pressure, the russian federation had to look for new buyers, and in particular china, india, and turkey, they are in these

countries sold oil at a huge discount and at the expense of volumes, and they made up for the losses they have due to the restrictions imposed on the russian federation by the civilized world of the area yes, but first of all, the discount does not go anywhere and when they sell they sold a lot of their oil abroad, really to india, so that they did not buy oil, they went precisely for these discounts, now they are reducing the discounts. of the oil and gas industry was precisely on the european market, they lost it in order to compensate, they really went to other markets, to asian markets, first of all to turkey and offered a discount, but because you did not offer this discount, they began to receive less money, a situation arose when they physically sold more oil than before and they received almost

half less in money, and because of the fact that such a reduction in profits occurred from one unit , the russian federation began to reduce this discount, but how did it start to reduce this discount because they began to buy less oil from her because they bought from her precisely because the prices were quite cheap, that is, now russia has driven itself into a situation when it will either be forced to return to discounts, which, let's say , allowed it to receive money, but not to the extent that before, or let's say it's easy to lose these markets, and now russia is at the crossroads of what to do to save the disk, but then it will be less and it will already hit the budget, because in fact the figure that - originated in russia, based on the results of four months, when for the whole year they planned that they would have a deficit

of 2.9 trillion rubles, but at the end of april they already had 3.4 trillion, that is, it has already exceeded the expected size of this debt. this is despite the fact that the russian federation traditionally a country with a surplus and now they have a deficit and they are looking for ways to change the situation, as i mentioned, they went for a significant reduction in spending, but this is also not the best option because, after all , in order for the country to function normally it is necessary to make certain expenses, and now the articles have been reduced, let's say, which are not the most important, but the next step may be to refuse the payment of salaries and pensions in individual subjects of the federation

. they have quite large reserves , in particular, in the so-called national welfare fund , and according to the forecasts of experts, i just remember forecasts that were economic . for at least three years, only with the funds of this fund, russia will be able to patch holes and pay pensions and salaries. how is the situation with this fund now? are its resources really enough to cover the deficits that arise? see the russian federation, it closes economic statistics. this does not happen by chance if we we are talking about the background of national well -being there according to estimates which, let's say, were the period when the information was still open there, it was written about if i'm not mistaken, 11.5 trillion rubles, but when we talk about this fund, it is necessary

to understand that there is a liquid component, i.e. what is in money or it can be sold immediately and there are certain resources, i.e. gold, ointments, currencies let's say non-convertible, which also make up this fund and here, even russian economists said that liquid resources are 6.5 trillion rubles in this format, and there is a hole in the budget, let me remind you that they have now returned it to 2.6, but even before the end of april, that is, for four months, it was, respectively, on yes, there are three 3.4 countries and if this figure continues to grow, it is quite possible that during this year 6.5 trillion, which are liquid, the hole may exceed them, and then even this fund will not be enough to pay salaries and pensions normally, simply because a-and in the same place

, this does not mean that the economy has stopped and they can do nothing and three they must be paid for years in order for the economy to generate profits, for the economy to generate transactions, they must sell their goods at normal prices , they sell their main goods, this is definitely oil and gas revenues, i.e. gas, oil, they sell them at a discount, that is, they expect by the way, in the budget, if i'm not mistaken, $70 per barrel is set for them now according to the ceiling. they sell, they cannot sell above 60, and it turns out that they are already short of funds. in fact, i do not think that they will be able to hold out for these three and a half years. i think that after all, if not in this, then in the next year there will really have to take very popular steps, first of all , salaries and pensions will not be paid there, not all of russia, of course

, that is, russia will soon have a gender when they start looking for, as they say, a victim, that is subject of the federation from which they will begin not to pay salaries and pensions and further this number will increase until the period until , let's say, there are shocks that can forever change the fate of this territory according to the results of the first quarter of gdp decrease by 1.8%, and what can the difference is approximate between what they publish and what is actually there . and i was thinking more, and here i remember the article that appears in the magazine fantential time appeared somewhere in about two months, maybe three. when the title of the article was directly why is the imf repeating putin's economic propaganda? in this article, they said that

russia really publishes certain data, and these data are repeated by international financial institutions. if you look at the forecasts for the development of the russian economy for the current year and for the next year, you will see growth there. certain institutions give growth to the economy of ukraine, for example, the european union says that the gdp of ukraine will grow by 1% this year, and the world bank even says about 2% growth at the end of 2023, as for russia there they also give growth, but still because of these restrictions that exist, and i don’t think that these are real numbers, and that’s why even russia says that they have a decline so far. and this does not mean that they will be able to achieve growth, because if we look at it again

from the little information that is available. and regarding the fact that the main growth in the russian economy is taking place, it is the industries related in one way or another to the ministry of defense, that is, the tailoring of special clothes, the production of certain equipment , that is, when we talk about gdp, it should be understood that it is oriented towards the military industry what is it like that they say that without special prospects, spending, that is, the amount of production of clothes and tanks of other equipment is increasing , but the same is the speed at which all this equipment. it actually turns into ashes precisely because this is the specificity of what they are currently producing, where there is growth in them, if you point to more significant industries that are not related to

the war, there the growth is not so great and sometimes even a drop, and this also affects the general map regarding oil and the state of the russian economy, in spite of everything, russia remains, if i am not mistaken , the second oil exporter in the world after saudi arabia in principle, and in terms of the volume of this oil, it could potentially once even become the first of course, this is what we are talking about. but nevertheless, it is a very important player on the international market of energy carriers, and in the event that the problems that you are talking about will really start in russia, how can it affect this market, because we we understand that this is and will affect us, given that energy is the basis of the modern economy in the 21st century. first of all, we noted that at the beginning of the broadcast you mentioned the agreement plus effect. but if we recall the history of all these agreements, russia and saudi arabia very often violated them accused russia of agreeing to reduce its oil production, and then

it turns out that russia does not reduce it very much, so there is a problem. and although russia can indeed reduce production, but not because of agreements, but because of what the broadcasters said that certain e-e at the car service company are coming out, well, only on their own, if i'm not mistaken, shlumbergen holly barton, that is, they are so right, there are four such leading companies in general, and they are all gradually turning their activities around, and a situation can arise here that was back in 2014 predicted the russian financier mr. dimuro when he said that, you know, oil prices in the world can be as high as 150, but russia will not be given that simply because they will go to the car service company and russia will not be able to extract oil from them because somehow well, for the last decade, we can say that we are used to the fact that it is thanks to cooperation with these companies that it is easier for them to extract

oil, because this way russia can produce more oil than saudi arabia. the territory is more. but it is more difficult to extract. where is it located in the country ? as they say, if i dig it up, i can extract it immediately. nato needs to do significant operations here. therefore , it is quite possible that with such oil deposits, russia will not be able to make much money for me simply because first of all, there are eyes for car service companies that allow you to extract oil, and secondly, they also give regents thanks to which this oil turns into gasoline, that is also a bad thing , because after all, when they talk about oil , first of all i think about how much gasoline it will give. and here is gasoline without these reagents, it is impossible because there are already bright prospects in the oil and gas industry

of russia, because this cooperation, which is very important, was primarily for russia, because it provided technological substances that allowed them and things that allowed them to extract oil and substances that made it possible to convert them into gasoline, this is where problems arise, and still, as i said, you have to watch because the situation with the development of the russian economy is more and more reminiscent of a program called chronicles of the collapse of russia, and they continue these chronicles. thank you for your expertise and ivan us - the main consultant of the national institute after research , candidate of economic sciences was a guest of our broadcast, uh, not this night, almost, but also literally in a minute and a half in the morning, we

will return exactly in these minutes and a half that's why you should continue our broadcast, every ukrainian has a janul bodyguard, the one who protects the country at the front, the one who has no right to make a mistake, the one who protects people from the enemy, the one who gave his life defending ukraine, the story of the hero's feat, the hero will live forever, because it is these heroes who create the future the future of ukraine the future of europe the future of the whole world heroes of ukraine write the history of humanity for

thousands of years ahead thank you ukraine is a sovereign and independent state, its territory is intact and inviolable and we will fight for it how many forces are there? we the people are the only source of power in ukraine . for respect