[000:00:00;00] of political research of the national institute of strategic studies good evening mr. ivan good evening mr. oleksiy good evening tv viewers so, mr. ivan, did russia manage to put ukraine and the world in an uncomfortable position, you know, taking into account the experience of the whole history, i think that a lot of countries really prepared for a similar situation, so to say that russia is in a comfortable position is not ready, but what will happen next is really interesting because there are many options. and what options do you personally see first of all

let's remember the history, that is, before the negotiations regarding the black sea grain initiative were started. on the agenda of the world in general, there was a different idea. it was voiced by the admiral of the fleet at that time, even her majesty, in the royal power of great britain, who said that let's do so, the warships of great britain enter the black sea, although with the ships of egypt. at that time, it was about egypt that will bring grain to this country and they will guarantee the safety of these egyptian vessels. and because it was really discussed, but then an idea appeared of the black sea grain initiative, why did she block it because turkey was a party here? and nobody overturned the montreux doctrine, by the way, it controls the bosphorus straits, danylo, and that is why it turns out that it is desirable that turkey participates and that is why it was concluded, and here, too, the important point is not one agreement, but two agreements where there was a separate turkey

. and said that we are leaving from this agreement and turkey then skala you know these two years and we have an agreement with ukraine and now it will be implemented then russia also said that it will stop all the boats that will go yesterday in the black sea to odessa actually well and for ukraine and then one turkish journalist said a very wonderful phrase and you have something and after that russia came back because it is one thing to make a beautiful picture something we are unfortunately fighting back attacking your ports and another if we are really simulating the situation turkey says that we have its somewhere with ukraine

we don't get along with it, we guarantee security, we give our warships, and turkey has them, and then russia finds itself before the elections, or attack turkish ships and thus actually attack nato, nato atoll j5, the article can be because turkey above mentioned that we do not join the sanctions . please tell me if it will not be thrown away do you get the impression that, well, similar to the minsk agreements? and we remember how russia itself admitted that they were such that they were impossible to fulfill, that similar to the minsk agreements, russia also allowed such a fin and a feint, or is it correct to say yes, and specifically concluded these agreements, so they agreed to them temporarily in order to eventually break up, violate, stop whatever reason is necessary

. for myself i apologize i myself said in particular that russia was slowly killing the grain agreement from one continuation to another, that ukraine is playing russia's game, well, that is, like playing the game. and well, you want to, and so do we, and in fact, it betrays some kind of political moves. is this? well, in fact. yes, russia always enters into some kind of agreement in order to later use a way out of them as it weighs. russia this agreement allowed for the first time to have a good image among the countries of africa and the middle east because these countries immediately after the start of the full-scale war in ukraine on february 24, they began to say, "look, food prices are rising, they have risen unrealistically. and only when the implementation of this initiative of the black sea began, then the prices were somehow rubberized, by the way, and interestingly, there was also an increase now. but if we compare the prices, let's say for the middle of july and the middle of june, then in june they were higher by almost 100 $ nabushok

indicates the number after piskov's message i understand the exit of 3.4 immediately to the cherkasy fund, but if the period is a month, then it is not so. and if we compare it with what was just at the peak, when after the start of a large-scale war, the price was much higher, that is, in fact, there is a certain dependence , and by the way, ukraine demonstrated its

importance to the whole world. stagings, nevertheless, under this agreement, in addition to the political profit that russia had in africa, the middle east, what do we allow, we want to have good relations, there is also an important element of china, of course, we absolutely have this, well, we will talk about it separately, but also one more point , well, you know it anyway . let's put it this way . mykola is a criminal a war criminal, but he said that most likely there is an agreement that in exchange for the existence of this agreement, there are no problems in transnistria, that if there is no such agreement , the issue of transnistria can be

resolved very quickly because the green light will be given. cannot be solved by russia, then there will be no responsibility at all, russia understands this, but the given situation is when russia is absent , let's not be present today, and then i will explain why i am using it for the time being, because it can speed it up, that is, it is dragging on now, but it can activate some processes, and in fact, regarding transnistria, but this is one of the options . reprimanded to putin why are they there and can they be used in this case in the context of the grain agreement look well, i am forced to quote the person i mentioned as a shooter for the second time, he also mentioned that i should not forget about the russian military contingent in syria, how it is provided through the tunnels, and turkey can block the channels for russian boats, block the air for russian planes and make it so that this entire russian base located in syria will not

be provided with anything at all. i will remind you that, to a large extent, this kind of thing happens in fasil latent war of turkey russia because russia supports your turkish organs supporting turkish opposition in this country and here in turkey is the desire more than that all remember 2016 when r-turkey has shot down a russian military aircraft and russia did not respond from turkey. will be the use of this that is, in fact

, turkey made it clear that if it would be russia's answer is that for russia, it can end in a direct conflict. turkey is a country that can come to terms, unlike many democracies of the world, which make up the majority of precisely turkey - this is a country that is interested in the first place because there was such a conflict, so they may not be ready yet, but hypothetically they are thinking about it, and i will remind our viewers. look, if i'm not mistaken, the 19th year when a map of turkey's influence in 2050 appears on turkish television and there is definitely crimea as a place of influence because the population is similar the majority is actually the fact that russia now controls the coast of azov, but then this territory is expanding significantly and turkey hints that all the turkic-speaking regions of russia and yakutia should not be forgotten

. it's almost the 17th months from the point of view of the interests of great britain, then we will understand that thanks to great britain taking the most proactive position in a situation when even the united states of america looks more moderate, it helped great britain return to global politics, that is, before that great britain was perceived as first ukraine the eu, then ukraine, which recently left the eu, now it is behaving more and more actively and for it this is a demonstration of influence for turkey, as well as this black sea

destroyed initiative is an image project gardayan, which allows him to point out to the arab world and africa that it is all happening thanks to me, and this is where we come to a very interesting statement. when he said that i am negotiating with putin and russia will return to this agreement, let's say that today russia has not yet returned, but something tells me that until august , when. could have said that let's stay there for five days and think about the shots then i'll say ok, i'll come back because you asked what. by the way, it can influence, first of all, i quoted you about the shooting in the series, and secondly , the parliament imports, so how much goes through turkey is quite rich, and if turkey blocks it, let's say, it will create problems for russia, and now what you and i outlined before this the china factor is definitely the largest

, the largest country in the world. friend's law the second is a country with a population of 1.5 billion that has normal relations with russia, but still, when we again talk about the black sea, a new initiative, let's just go to the un website and see who the goods went to under this initiative, and here is a miracle china will be in first place with 24 percent when we see all the countries and how many goods went there, china will be in first place, by the way, turkey will be in third place why because turkey also built its business that it receives grain from ukraine and then from it flour and further on absolutely flour and practically even i heard that well, i don't know if the source is reliable, but i heard such information that the markup can be up to 300,500 percent, yes, taking into account the significant economic problems in turkey, because if you look at the comparison of inflation in ukraine and in turkey at the beginning of the 22nd year, the gains are not the same because the government itself inherited a country with high inflation, so the situation arises when turkey this flow of money and here

russia interferes with it and here there are actually two if the largest stakeholder, let's say, the interested party is turkey, which, by the way, one more moment, when you were summarizing this broadcast, you mentioned 60,000 tons. of course, it was a brilliant, completely voltairean statement. and you know why it's voltairean, because voltaire once said that if god didn't exist, he would have to be invented. you understand what 60,000 tons was about. they entered and now it turns out that china will ask russia clear questions

that china has repeatedly told russia that this agreement should be simply because we receive certain goods under it, and from corn, as a rule, i don't even remember wheat, corn knows what was going on, and you are actually endangering food security in our one and a half billion country right here . times a day, it is desirable to eat noodles v by the way, many of the world's economists are already saying that china has already fallen into this so-called trap of a country with an average income level, when people are already getting something and they don't want to return to the carpenter who allowed them stability, and that's why china is already thinking about its role. by the way, china never behaves too aggressively here, it's also important because it has soft power and for it what russia does is, let's say, not entirely in the context of its policy. and in general

, one more point that should also be mentioned worry about that that recently a full-scale war in china has decided to change the name of several cities in russia, for example, but the very fact that certain preparatory work is already being done, which is insane, can allow china to put pressure on russia that if you do not return for these agreements, then this may happen to the territories that we have outlined

with ours. say you you know we were there in 1911, i can’t confuse the years, it was even when these territories were taken away using the opium wars in china, that is, the weakness of our state and now we are turning our attention to the fact that the chinese reminded the western countries, more precisely, why should he not remember that it is russia that restrains china in this sense , there is absolutely nothing here. a plane from china, yes, take it easy to moscow . are you? during the day, i'm on at night, because he says, well, that's it the people sitting in these airplanes are the chinese looked down and saw the expanses of siberia and thought about what in general it is necessary to create them so that this thought sits in it valeriy and the truth flies during the day for sure and please tell me let's return to our region, specifically the black sea how do you estimate the probability that russia with the reverse brains like this will sink some grain ship there and what will happen after that i will say yes, i still do, here is the scenario as i imagine it for myself that's right russia

for a few days the weather on the position is an agreement but that's it it's all the same that there will be a conversation with erdagaskar, as he said, i called my friend putin and he will agree, he will continue, he will continue, because in fact, in addition to kind words, there will be clear statements that you know, and we give the military from the boat, and if you take a risk and you are ready to be in a conflict because we are ready and by the way, we are definitely ready and she will say i give but but at the same time turkey, i do not rule out that consultations are already underway with the united states of america and we see a rapprochement by the way, what there was a sharp confrontation between the usa and turkey immediately and sweden, sweden, however, suddenly agreed and agreed quickly, and that it is necessary to expand nato and ukraine that it is also turkey to say in

nato, and the f-16 will be in turkey on the other side , that is, that is, that is, there is some improvement of relationships there, and i will not exclude it. i apologize for tautology or guarantee no problem so if the us intervene in the situation, if god forbid, something will happen and then by the way, if the usa says that there, because it is unofficially said, we will immediately transfer information to russia, and therefore russia will hold back and say, well, we can't let the second artaghan down, this is the scenario that is drawing itself for a few more days, russia, as they say, will play with what she came out

. the truth is that you can be a consultant you can predict and model it like this. so if i asked you to model the best development of the situation and the worst for ukraine and the world, the best scenario for russia is two or three days. how can you say that she would do the best scenario - in ukraine they give drones in order for ukraine to be in russia at all. the black sea becomes er without this strange er . by water boats so even if the situation today four, if i am not mistaken, we will call russia. if it remains, if there are three, then in a week, two, and then russia will ask if you will be against this agreement or if we still have it. so this is an option that, in my opinion, is very good, and russia should also calculate that if they do go against it, let's say that they will give ukraine information and weapons in order to reduce the

number of russian submarines . this number is 18, which is lit in daily let's tell our general staff about the number of russian submarines. it's kind of frozen. let's put it this way, we need to restore the dynamics, and how to restore it, accordingly, to give ukraine weapons that will allow, firstly, to sink one submarine, and secondly, it is possible to send some admiral leson there. well, the us ministry of defense today. well, it was already today, kyiv time

. includes equipment that will help it is better to protect its ports, those recent opportunities will become increasingly important, especially now, when russia has released a grain agreement and has resumed attacks on port cities that we have seen in recent days, in addition to the castle of the white house press secretary, they have already been preparing and even the superima, if i have been in the way . definitely the general staff is more prominent where they were not able to decide for them, but something suggests that now there will be a focus in the south, but it can not only be a defense of it can be an increase in the opportunity for the crimea that emphasize from the point of view from the exact state of america and ukraine, while we are talking to you all the way it was a good message

. as well as in the russian point is absolutely correct, the star answer is that we warned about the crimean bridge, we were not heard, unfortunately, what happened happened. by the way, when i was preparing for this column for this program, some of the newsmakers were very serious . happen unfortunately every night they were preparing that is, russia knew in advance that she would not continue this agreement and she knew that it would be necessary to show to the whole world and how much they could realistically stop those e-e ships to ukraine for grain, and that is why all these strikes were in advance and that something happened on the ukrainian bridge, you know russia of course says that it is if what she is doing this answer but i think that they are even without this in fact yes yes you are the same series that we are waiting for there, which will have revenge for the crimean city well, what is the difference that they just

happen to us without any there were no points on the 24th either there is absolutely no reason for them. that's why when russia says and we're clustered there, we're going to fail to use this for 17 months. you've been using it for 17 months. that's why ivan's trial is a fantasy. i ask you to continue. what's the worst option? and in fact, we're talking about what the kremlin was thinking about when they were thinking about this whole combination. the worst-case scenario is that, after all, everyone believes that russia is blocking ukraine's ability to export grain . we can see the situation with our neighbors who also, poland declared that it will not transport at all even for three, as well as hungary, romania, bulgaria and and and slovakia, slovakia, four bordering ukraine and bulgaria, which joined below, one of the black sea animals, that is, in fact, ukraine is deprived

of the opportunity to export its grain because all the countries that border with us have blocked belarus, of course, the russian option is also the worst option, because in general, it is very often said , why does ukraine have a grain initiative at all? here it was brought out is there a future but the first headline i had was why in ukraine and why in ukraine and now look at the month of july when the implementation of the agreement begins and that the monthly export of grain from ukraine is 400 million dollars in march 2023 billion 200 for understanding 400 billion 200 and why did it come down next because five more neighbors started creating problems i looked at what if we take these five goods four goods i apologize corn, wheat, rapeseed , sunflower seeds, for which there was a ban

on the supply of all countries, and here is the export to these of the countries of these four goods. let's say that in march, when everything was normal and in may, the difference was 300 million dollars, it was 400, it became 100. here ukraine lost in general, last month in june, 700 million were exported from us now, and in may, by the way, 600 million. will put pressure on russia and it is precisely because of such situations that the statements of the same ambassador there arise china in the eu who say that

the phrase about the great friendship of russia and the chinese are nothing more. well, it is very verified. and please tell me, taking this situation and if you could imagine that ukraine would like to learn something, well, if you can say that, highlight some experience. do we need to strategically? perhaps in the future, prepare parallel paths and what these paths might be. first of all, this story showed that why the problem actually happened with 5 ukrainians who supported ukraine , political, first of all, poland, and physical volumes of wheat supplies from ukraine to poland if we take the first quarter of the current year and the first quarter of the 21st, actually, when there was no war, they increased 110 times, that is, not by two to three, 110 in romania by 6.5 thousand times, well, in fact, well, it is imported, we are talking about transit, yes, but anyway, when we say transit, the logistics must be transited. but the logistics were not calculated, and the whole problem arose because it was not possible to work through these countries and to transfer goods to another because

they were physically in these countries in one way or another they settled there, took up space in warehouses, and this is where a problem arose because the traditional warehouses were when there were attacks on local farmers and when local farmers saw that where they have been storing their crops for ten years, there is a harvest from ukraine. if this problem can be solved, then in what area should this solution be located? to expand the possibilities of logistics, that is, the speed of the transfer of these goods to italy, spain, other eu countries, the netherlands, so that they do not delay what romania, poland, hungary, slovakia, and so that they reach further. well, bulgaria does not remember much because, firstly, not so much grain went to it there

. we don't want to think about it of these countries and why, when someone says that we had some kind of bad quality, the czech republic said that everything is fine. and in this situation, what about our farmers? just now, the harvest has begun. what will happen to them, what do they expect? of course, they will be a gift. why? because there is really uncertainty, it is not known how europe will behave, and all these conversations with the black that there will be no possibility to export through the black sea. this is a big problem, but first of all, the end of believing that this is not history. the black sea

in general will leave what they will and it will be the same as it was and for a day more, the russian federation, on the one hand, she went to this work on the other hand, it really slowed her down a lot, that is, you know, our ministry of infrastructure gave information that due to checks by the russians, she passed seven dashes a day, 9 sat with artur, and when the turks checked there, 40, 400, there were 42, 46 , that was two days when, without russia, it was clear that turkey demonstrated, and we cannot blame turkey that she was not checked. i think that she i checked, i think i checked even on the run definitely and they are somehow like that 42-44 that is turkey has already demonstrated that it is possible from russia, and moreover, turkey is now sending the same signals to the arab world and says that you know, you are somehow friends with russia, but you see that here we are turkey, we help you get grain, but this russia she does not. by the way, an interesting moment when russia was leaving then erdağan said that if russia does it again, it will supply its salaries for free, and this morning i had a conversation with a russian on jazira, this is the state of qatar-kanal

and he said we we will be free glorify the grain, i think, i wonder how many holes you have in the budget right now, so that you, on the contrary, are looking for where else to make money, and against this background, you will give it to the ministry of finance of russia for free. your animal will run to you, says your animal. we need to somehow solve this deficit. no one will give us a loan. the imf will not work there. china has its own interests , let's put it this way, and belarus will not give. well , we need to keep what belarus gives us . we need money, russia says we will for free, i don’t believe that russia can demonstratively put a party, but then russia, uh, and populist statements. it’s just one to the other, you know how uh. please tell me if the poems are still interested in their own influence in africa, because this whole story affects the image of russia in africa. well, it’s not in the best way. i would say that it is definitely