[000:00:00;00] and why is this being done if in fact the fate of the wagnerites and their presence in belarus is not fully resolved and it is unknown to build, and then as the play progresses, everything began to change there . wait, it is not 8000 5000, you understand the number of these tents, but five is under the big question, i do not believe about five at all, it is very, very much, in my opinion, at most - it is several hundred units to a thousand. well, let's 8 8 000 because wagner's military personnel is a fifth part of the entire belarusian army, well, this is

very, very much, it can be done by the state the mutiny does not come out of the tent, yes, i sent several hundred units, they made a mirror, so once again the russians do not have enough manpower, they need these experienced people, so i think now they are deciding and changing their plans, but right now you indirectly touched on the topic of the fate of the war criminal prigozhina, i would like to talk in a little more detail before we move on to the immediate security issues, er, in the context of the probable location of the mercenaries in the future, so i will return is there a beauty and money and weapons and money in cash i will remind our viewers that 10 billion rubles were met with him after that. putin is also there and he is traveling peacefully in russia. and what is there? despite this, for example, the ukrainian intelligence agency says about what the fsb said. they have already given an order to eliminate prigozhin, the former director of the cia recommended that he stay away from the window because, well, hinting at the work of ukraine in the russian special services, that is, please help us understand and explain to our viewer well, that is, the fact that he

was absolutely unpunished, not only was he handsome, but not even that he went into exile on the territory of belarus. what can he prove? they are looking for a new job with which he can atone for this sin, or do they think he will still be needed? do they think he will be needed? that this is an old, bald map, you can still pull it out of your pocket and throw it on the ukrainian front on the ukrainian map. i can only relate to this that he is not being punished, so they really took olga of the olgy trolls , these adventure trolls, all of this now, when something employees are looking for a new place of work for him took contracts for feeding

of the russian army of schoolchildren there is about 940 million dollars a year, and apparently he was deprived of direct financial assistance from the russian budget, it is a billion dollars a year, but some part of the wagnerians remained with him, i don’t know at what expense he will finance them well, i did not know that at his own expense it is such a very expensive pleasure , maybe they still keep him . we have a situation that is still the same the wagnerites come and settle in this tent town or maybe another one, and a beauty is coming there, and should lukashenko be afraid of those whom he is ready to shelter or at least declares that he is ready to shelter? and are there risks, because you said that one tent is worth it, they don’t even leave or get up from this tent in order to carry out a coup d’état in belarus, and if such a-a such a possible scenario of events is possible, then who will protect lukashenko himself ka if this

happens, well, look lukashenko is thinking with such logic that first of all, the wagnerites will become instructors for his military units in a year and a half, they will train them there, they will make such serious soldiers out of them. and secondly, it should become his territorial guard, which should protect him from belarusian patriots who aim to return to belarus and who are you with lukashenko from svitlana tikhanovsky's team from the call of the entire kalinovskaya and others, that is, he is considering such a question, but ok, you take such a question from them the question is who will finance it the previous lukashenko stated that i did not give money, he was partially financed by the state of russia, the russian federation partially financed

the wagnerites, and their uh, their crimes in ukraine, and maybe then well, lukashenko, or he is not ready, belarus does not have such money, 60% of the belarusian economy is your money. elevator , they are already thinking of making candies there. well really no joke and sell to china , they say it is expensive. there is dried milk. yes, send it to china, it is boiled and wrapped there. i really saw it today. well, here they are fighting for any penny and 200 million dollars. i thought lukashenko would not allow himself to take it out of the budget pocket. well, we understand . yes, mishka . destination

town let him want, for example, a beautiful place there i want to be in the center minsk answer no ah no okay then we will start something and in the meantime valentin glykh, a political scientist, joined us in the studio, congratulations my congratulations and we already had time to talk with mr. ivan here about the probable future of the militant leader prigozhina well, i would also like to hear your point of view, but in particular they talked about impunity, he did not receive any punishment, not only did he not receive the entrance hall, but he also received, what did he get back? yes, it is 10 billion rubles . with his sword and leg, and the weapon with which shoigu himself rewarded him with such a word liked to criticize, what do you think is the secret of this impunity, what are the plans of the kremlin prigozhin in the future, or can he still be used in the war against ukraine, uh, there is a poem by berntz, there is a phrase in russian, they will allow themselves, the rebellion cannot end, then it is called differently, that's why when we look at what happened in russia and they say that it was a failed rebellion, if it was a failure, then it is this failure, you drew certain consequences for those who made it and

since she did not suffer these consequences, i did i tend to think that maybe he was successful. well, we just don't fully realize that. actually, i was standing on the edge. and the day before, i tend to think that the weakening was real. well, what is called putin's sovereignty, that is, i think that after this rebellion it became quite obvious that putin is absolutely not a hegemon in russia . to his entourage, his security forces, competence or dedication well, we we understand that it is impossible to prepare such a march in such a way that no one found out about it, not accordingly, someone knew accordingly, someone did not report why they did not report, they did not know or did not want to report, or simply did not have time, or some communication mechanisms were broken. that is, there are a bunch of different uh, well, uh, how to say uh, questions

that remained unanswered in the public space, but personnel changes have already begun, well, that is, some demands have been satisfied, it is clear that different clans of this story will use it in order to strengthen weaken the positions of the opponents, the kadirovs drove, drove, drove, and never reached the poor 10 korts got stuck, well, accordingly, there are also questions for them, why did they go, why didn't they go ? we are their soldiers who are now being disbanded and scattered to

other units as they will be there well, i'm not talking about such a trifle, as it is true that on the territory of belarus now, in fact, the well-armed, sufficiently numerous bank of the formation, which will function according to the extraterritorial principle, will stop. that is, if in ancient times they once paid tribute, er, this tribute was quartered. yes, that is, roughly speaking . we'll see how it spills out on the streets of belarus belarusian, of course, if they kill and rape in russia, then what will they do like in belarus? in belarus, they think they will not behave like that. thank god, the internet is already full of materials about how, uh, they behave in russia, and that's why i think that in belarus this model will not differ further

. how will relations with the belarusian military develop? putin decided to turn them into prisoners in belarus, it's just not clear who the overseer is, and who are the prisoners, who is there, who prigozhyn should supervise lukashenka or lukashenko should supervise prigozhyn, and in fact, they should supervise each other only when people begin to find themselves in social roles, then the real supervisor is putin, and then we know that

yes, this is the paradox of two prisoners. peak branch in one word, that is, nothing good ivan, how can lukashenko lukashenko prigozhyn develop, what can it be, are they really set to watch over each other, should they be such conveyors of each other so that in putin’s eyes the kremlin is in the eyes and how their relations can develop situational relations in the near future, then lukashenko, of course , exaggerates his importance. in such a phrase for for someone else, i am a valuable treasure for putin. wagner has become trash and for lukashenka he has become a priceless treasure, but for a short period of time now, i think that lukashenko does not even know what to do with him, such as the instructor services and the security guard. yes, but the question how many of these people will have equipment, they will not have what rights will they have when they are forced to leave this territory, who will finance it? whether they leave them or

not, whether africa is taken from them, or whether they are taken away it seems that syria has been taken away by the powerful, and financing, that is, everything is being decided right now and any agreements are not capital, they are all temporary. ivan, still, returning to the beginning of our conversation regarding the possible placement of mercenaries of the wagner military command center not far from the border of ukraine. so we said that it is 200 km away and 400 km from the ukrainian capital, but we still understand that now the president of ukraine , volodymyr zelensky, during his visit to the west of the country, convened a meeting about strengthening of the northern borders and repeatedly sounded well in particular, if i'm not mistaken, the former commander of the general staff of the united kingdom sounded warnings, and in this regard, they said that russia could use mercenaries in belarus for another assault on the ukrainian borders. how do you actually consider such a possibility that, after all, these are scaremongers in order to concentrate a certain part of the ukrainian troops in that direction of people? about

the occupation in no way to the fact that they do not have that provision of that armory they had during the bahmut assault they don't have the meat resources that were during the bahmut assault soledar because it's dangerous there and there's none of that, they're limited i'm more inclined that they can do some provocative actions there on the border i don't know how many hundreds there are there to try to storm and draw attention to themselves but as for the breakthrough and actually passing through the territory of ukraine i don't believe it well the only option is kamikaze yes suicide bombers well, even though it's wagner it's not about them

well, about the skeleton i mean thank you ivan stupak, a military expert of the ukrainian institute of the future, a consultant. stability, yes, they relied on someone else's military power, then the varangians, yes, all over europe, that's not only, well, on the territory of russia, that's why it happened. well, if lukashenko thinks that if necessary, he can rely on the wagnerites, who can guarantee him internal political stability in his confrontation with the potential security forces there or with his own military. well, the same question can be asked and vice versa . will then

lean to keep them under control and that's it i wouldn't trust it, actually, when you are looking for a foreign contingent on your territory, hoping that they will protect your interests, especially when it comes to mercenaries wagnerites - these are mercenaries, mercenaries go to pain - in order to earn money, not to die, if someone is not aware of the date, then this is a classic of the genre. well, it is clear that sitting in belarus is much better for them than storming these obvious things under fire. yes, but the problem is that and which one damn sit there yes roughly speaking who will feed who will go

well, what about giving food? they are looking for a good bread, how about you? well, they say, well, who is there? who pays them, even just from living on the territory of belarus in that military base, to receive almost a certain profit from it? of course, that is, why are they lukashenko? well, that is a simple question. well, will this be his security service internal or is it a factor of destabilization, that is, he can perceive it situationally as a factor of stabilization, but if there are destabilizers, they will be engaged in what the armies of belarus will train regularly. let them train. i want i will see how it will turn out relations between the belarusian military and the wagnerites well, you have to understand that listen, look, there is still a military subculture, yes, it is still present in the military. yes, they have certain ideas about what is proper, what is improper, uh, their own. foreign recognition and everything else. these are such complex relations between moscow and moscow, yes, that is, status relations. well, i am absolutely not inclined to think that the belarusian military is delighted with this idea

. that is, you, can they be used as instructors? how many instructors need to continue to prepare in order to finish in ukraine, so that the belarusian military people seem to be clear enough to make it clear that they do not spare the desire to go the border of ukraine and to participate directly in terrestrial , let's say so that is one thing to do with the other. si without even entering the battle a very important task, they essentially block a significant part of our e forces, not allowing us to transfer them to where they er, well, they accelerated our counteroffensive actions, you understand. entering the battle, that is, they just stand and are already scraping, roughly speaking, a part of our forces. well, if they now throw them into battle, well, okay, now, there will be hostilities, after which they will be defeated. actually, yes , with certain consequences for the internal political

situation in belarus, we must be aware of this and then what, that is, after that we will see what everything is we closed there, there is no one to fight, and they are rudely speaking in your territory. well, this will free our hands in order to transfer these forces. well, and create a certain concentration in those areas of the front where they will be actively needed, you understand, not passively, uh, in terms of readiness to fight back, but actively to carry out certain actions, that's why i honestly still do. well, you are not inclined to think that from that direction we should expect any kind of full -scale provocations . ka or da in order

not to allow the transfer of strength and weaken yes, these are protective lines. let's call it possible. well, all the same, the story of the wagnerians is not over. it is not over in belarus. that is, these are all very premature conclusions, that is, the reformation process has started there. that is, they will react from the security forces. this whole investigation began . they throw it in other parts, yes, where no one is particularly happy with them, well more precisely, they are happy, but only as expendable material. what do you think. if a certain number of wagnerites were transferred to you. who do you think will primarily be used to achieve some risky goals ? well, the military personnel from this part or the wagnerites transferred

there. how will your relationship with them and how are you going to maintain order in general? i agree, but in the context of the threat to our northern border, to be more precise, the deterrence of the defense forces in that direction cannot simply be asked, the answer will probably be the same in poland and in the baltic countries. they say that the offensive on the border will also be a contingent of wagner mercenaries, or maybe again for some provocateurs . they fly in. as he said , they throw us corpses thrown across the border well, can't he use these mercenaries in particular to provoke on the eastern border and the north atlantic alliance? well, if he wants to commit suicide. maybe, but what's the point? in other words, for the first time, nato appeared on the borders of belarus, not yesterday, not last week. that is, it's long enough, but they already exist there

, and in fact it is lukashenko who takes a distributive and hostile position in relation to nato, and it is the lukashenko regime that is an accomplice in the war waged by the russian federation against belarus is an accomplice in the war against ukraine ukraine is simply talking about the format in which it participates in this war. well, hungarians once fought on the side of hitler. hungary even declared war on the states once, yes, that is, they had such a period in their history. well, bulgaria fought on the side of hitler. well, it is specific. well, each in his own way, but formally they were allies , so today belarus is a full-fledged participant in the war against ukraine on the side of russia, from the territory of belarus there was a full-scale offensive from the territory of belarus there is

shelling of the territory of ukraine on the territory belarus is being staffed, russian units are being treated, the russian military is being repaired, russian equipment, part of belarusian equipment is being transferred to the russians for the war against ukraine, they are full participants in this war, it is only about the format and participation. well, therefore, this is a delusion that there is not much malice for them . putin in order to achieve the goals that putin lukashenko wants to achieve in this context, it is only a tool to achieve putin's goals, all tools must be protected because if you want to use it further, let me know. he said that they say that russia will defend the regime of lukashenka with weapons in their hands. if there is an uprising against this regime, again, within belarus, he said that he once guaranteed some guarantees to armenia. yes, and how it ended not so

long ago . and the second, you don't have to think that lukashenko well, he may not be a genius academician well, but he is a political animal, very experienced in how to fight for power in order to obtain power, he perfectly understands the skin if he wants to yes, he may not understand, but he just feels and he well understands very well where his interests are, the interests of volodymyr volodymyrovych, where are their common interests, where they overlap one on top of each other, but

he perfectly understands where they are. for that much to the extent that it gives him some privileges, but no more than that. well, then i think you are also well aware that lukashenka does not care about the fate of belarus or anything else. he is accepted exclusively now for one single task: the preservation of his political regime , which is very shaky and staggered after this full-scale war. about the fact that the regime is fragile, in fact, it is rotten in its foundation, that is, this whole structure that was created by propaganda on the outside is no better than the story about the second army in the world with these cartoons he gives daggers that no one knocks down well, it turns out that valentin is also knocked down, but if there is such a large number of private military companies that now exist in russia, if i am not mistaken, at least 10 can be named in addition to the most

popular wagner - this is still we can mention the trio of the convoy of the crimean army gaul-aiter, different structures and even state agencies started such private private military mercenaries. but after this, a pseudonym was brought in. let’s call it whatever you want. obviously, the fate of these private military companies is in question in russia, and it’s not so clear-cut now with them. what can they do with the recruits at the ministry of defense , in principle, all these private military companies wanted even before the rebellion, so that it wanted to sign

all contracts with the ministry of defense to what extent now, in principle, as a phenomenon, a military company can exist in the realities of the new russian federation, which they were previously outlawed, well, that is, it was the tool used by the russian state in order to legalize its participation in conflicts outside the borders of the russian federation. that is, where the russian army could not be represented, because that would give it certain problems. that is, the state is what we must realize in russia, in principle, there is nothing special in the sphere of power institutions of any kind, so that even the criminal is under the control of the state, yes, in many moments, even related to this state. well, when we talk about kadyrov, what is kadyrov like in our country from the point of view of politics, well, is it a criminal structure, or is it a political institution

? well, who is he, some of his places in this? that is, in fact, these are really private armies, which means that the russian state is losing its monopoly on the use of force. well, only certain institutions that carry out their activities on the basis of laws, not contrary to the law, can use force. and on the basis of laws within the limits of the law, they created them, that is, they are once again trying to outwit themselves. shurman once wrote this very well. their political scientist wrote about the potemkin villages. and she said that the problem is with the potemki trees not

which sooner or later people appear there, and when people appear in the potemkin tree, it ceases to be potemkin, you understand, because there will be a real meaning, so when putin comes out, he says that wagner is generally something like that to them, they are related to the state, and then it turns out that the state financed him there with billions of dollars . this one an aggressive machine that is leading a war against ukraine. and what do they call themselves the russians there? or the wagners, what do they call sparta samali? by the way, i was always very funny. this is the sparta of this motorola, or what was the name of this clown , what did they call themselves , do they even know what? well, they are homophobes, yes, they were all together. who is

this little goblin getting married to? that is or who did we marry there, well, summer itself is already a very cool name, yes. in other words, we can see right away if the level of development of these people, yes, what they are oriented towards, what they have, as a matter of fact, an idea of ​​what is proper. therefore, all of this is actually a manifestation of symptoms of the erosion of the state mechanism of the russian federation, well, in normal states, it does not function like that, that is, and in fact, when we talk about private military companies, these are really people who perform or really function as instructors. others tasks are people who can perform certain safety functions yes, that is, something to protect something well, but that they participate in a full-scale war as they stormed bakhmut with such losses there that there are yes, i think i think that i do not know when the last time you can do. leny as usual

are used well -permitted by military well, the zbigovytska bandit company is a military company, i would call it. so this is an organized criminal group, and with heavy weapons, well, again, where is it? actually, private military companies that had aviation in their arsenal, in fact, we can talk further about heavy weapons after the mutiny of the beauty in them in the wagner pvk, allegedly, as the kremlin claims, they took the heavy equipment and handed it over to the national guard, although it is not known why for example, heavy equipment is needed and aren't we now witnessing the formation of a new private military campaign, only not in the name of the war criminal prigozhina, for example, in the name of the war criminal putin no yes, he already has her well, it's just that putin now has a quite obvious threat, he needs to balance, yes, that is, the power