[000:00:00;00] the next guest with whom we will continue the discussion of this important topic is oleksiy gran , the scientific director of the foundation for democratic initiatives of dogs. i congratulate you and the professor of the kyiv-mohyla academy, a professor of political science at the mohyla academy. compare well, actually , now let's compare, i'll ask you a question, uh, to which you know, somewhere successfully, somewhere not successfully, people who want to know more and thus having certain the fragments at their disposal want to make a complete picture, but this complete picture is not always made up, there are always some elements or some knowledge that people lack , do you think that the war in ukraine, which is going on today, is the cauldron in which this new world order is being brewed, should we not think globally and let's just say that this is a local war in which the fate

of the state of ukraine is being decided, its independence , sovereignty and its territorial borders , what will they be and everything and no new world order will be formed here because of this war it won't be. what is your opinion, well, you know the answer. that is, this is more of a rhetorical question on your part, and in this case , yes, definitely. this is a test for the whole world and what this world will be like. home, what will this world look like, why

is it not a local war? of the jungle, that's why the power of those countries that strive to protect freedom, democracy, but also territorial integrity is definitely being tested now. we see that the old institutions do not work. why did i switch from freedom and democracy to territorial integrity? because , in fact, we know that the world is far all countries are democratic, and even these countries, which are, let's say, part of those countries that are currently voting in the united nations for the territorial integrity of ukraine , they are not democratic. so here we are practically all arab countries in our country, the majority, the vast majority of arab countries support it, with the exception of syria, eritrea, and

algeria. yes, but it is difficult to call them successful democracies , again, they are part of the african countries, that is , for them, let's say this is the slogan we are talking about in europe in the west, what is the struggle of dictatorship with democracy or democracy against dictatorship, it does not work for them, but the slogans of territorial integrity work for them, it works for them , pragmatic slogans, that is, food security , energy security, freedom, freedom seafaring a-a environmental security admissibility of brazing hiding nuclear weapons it works like that for them that's why the world is really now i listened a little to what my colleague said, how can i agree with him look let's remember that when the soviet union collapsed , francis the phocians, whom we all love, that's why

that he defends such a pro-ukrainian position, but he then made an incorrect prediction. he said that the world will be the end of history - this is the victory of such a liberal democracy, er, in fact , it became er, politically investigative one polar, but we understood that in reality everything would be much more complicated and we saw that the world ah new centers of power are growing in the world and it is not only china but these regional centers in different corners of the world and the threat that the world will turn into multipolar, but with a lot of polar, semi-polar, but no longer like it was during the cold war, that is, then there was bipolarity of the usa, the ussr, and now the usa and china

. such a world is beginning to take shape , we do not know whether it will become like this, and we see that allies china has just such countries as russia, the crane or countries with weak democracy, dictatorial regimes, and that is why president biden began to say that new ones are being held in the world. the new dividing line is democracy against dictatorships, and it is true. the world of politics. it is always more complicated than any scheme and we can see some dictatorial regimes that are nevertheless or authoritarian regimes that still understand the need to ensure that russian aggression against

ukraine does not end with the annexation of ukrainian territories, i have already mentioned these countries, so let's take these lucky countries, the countries of the persian gulf, saudi arabia, they fully maintain good relations with russia, but at the same time they talk about the territorial integrity of ukraine, so the world is really getting complicated. i continue to believe that in reality, of course, democracy has more prospects democracy has more potential than dictatorship and this is shown by world history world history shows that dictatorships can be effective in such a uh, so to speak, in the stavskyi zabize yes, but when we

we are talking about more accurately in sprinter yes, but when we are talking about long distances, democracy turns out to be more effective and that is why i still believe that the free world will have it will have an advantage but it will not be an easy world and we have to understand we have to understand it and when we are talking about ukraine. i think that mr. mach, where he is so very, very good at the end, moved on to ukraine, our prospects in the new world, we have to understand that, again, not all countries will unanimously support ukraine simply because that we are a democracy or because the russians violate the rules of human rights, here the situation is more complicated because these countries of the global cock have a very strong anti-western bias because of colonialism because of this legacy of colonialism in the countries of latin

america - this is a very powerful anti-americanism and it all affects these countries, if a multipolar world is not a minus, but a plus. they try to play on the contradictions between those big big countries, but at the same time , we have to understand that even these countries are very present in the heads of their leaders anti-westernism when we come to pragmatic things, i.e. trade, investment, ah, the west has a huge advantage here, you know, only over russia, yes, or let’s say russia’s trade with africa is very small , in fact, and before china, that is, before chinese aid was perceived as hurrah, now there are a lot of african countries

saw that this is actually a cabal and that is why they will be more cautious about accepting this help from china and even more so from russia, you know, if the countries of ukraine and africa, let's say by the way, let's go to putin in st. petersburg where the summit was held russia africa came with more than 40 invited or even more than 50 invited leaders of african states, as many as 17 came, and most of them - these are those who came to power as a result of the coup, and well, that is, they are mentally somewhat similar to putin and understand him, he understands them but many ukrainians can seek support in ukraine already after the end of the war, because we understand very well that china , for example, invests money in those countries, gives diamonds there, for example, gives gold. to trade with all this and so on, and china is interested in finding money where there are resources and it also invests in belarusians , invested in all economic schemes, this is understandable, but ukraine is a country that in the future can be a leader, and in the fact

that ukraine has huge resources. we are now talking about metals and e and about land about grain about water about rare earth metals . by the way, what are in ukraine, what are the metals of the future, or are they used to make modern weapons and chips and for cars, these earth metals are here in the summer - this is the stock of what china and ukraine have big ones, so we have to understand that the war is also important. whoever wins can have a big profile and , er, big influences, that's why the war in ukraine is like that, and sovereignty, they are independence, but we understand that for world players, everything resources are also important. who will dispose of these resources , and this is a large amount of resources, just the thing is located in the south, where counteroffensive counteroffensive actions are currently taking place, so what i am leading to is that in the future, ukraine can be a leader in military development

cooperation can turn into something like that, or remain what it was, a country that was a supplier of raw materials, you know, i recently got involved. an interesting story about ukrainian grain, which, let's say , is sold to turkey , sold to turkey for a nominal price of 30 dollars. speaking for 30 for 300 dollars, yes. the same is why ukraine can’t sell grain . and pundiks, yes, have added value, and it makes big profits, that’s why it’s important. well, plus, ukraine is rocket engines. there are satellite launches, that's all, that's tanks, that's airplanes, well, ukraine is all, listen, it's a super powerful state, logically, which can shoot like that in this war, in your opinion , is there understanding, first of all, i'm not talking about the people, about the ukrainian government and people intellectual intellectual elite understanding of that and how do we where do we and how do we take our place yes victory yes now we are going to it we pay a big price but who will be ukraine the world order let it change it is

great but where will we be as you think there is such an understanding why to the end is not formed as to help form it, who should work on it, you asked many important and fundamental questions. well, first of all, i would like to respond if we are talking about those who came to the russia africa summit and 17 presidents and 10 prime ministers, and this is of course a striking drop compared to the previous one. there were 45 leaders because other representatives from other countries are vice prime ministers or ministers of foreign affairs. that is, it really says that africa is now more, let's say , wary of. well, not wary, but wary of contacts with russia. but among those who came, i am not only the vassals of russia, there are also heavy weights, the president came again, yes, that is, africa cannot

, south africa cannot ignore it due to its approach to multipolar education. by many factors, under the pressure of many factors, we pushed him to the point that, well, again, with the help of various factors, there were russian missiles that fell on kyiv when he was here, and the pressure of the west here, and the democratic position of the judiciary system in africa itself, but still he took the position that it is not just that putin is not coming, but it was said that putin will be arrested. that is, this is our big victory , yes, but look when we talk about what will happen after the war, well, probably the main task for us now is - it is all the same to win and win without any concessions to the aggressor, ukrainians oppose these concessions, this was shown by polls of various companies. we

just conducted a survey commissioned by the ukrainian resistance, they oppose concessions, moreover, we ask such a provocative question a if there is no help, are the ukrainians ready to continue fighting and the ukrainians say that they are ready to continue and it is better to freeze but not to make concessions to russia, not to record them in the documents that is why i am to the point that of course the road to peace is that it will still be difficult and bloody but very it is correct that we are asking the question and what will happen next in the world ah, you know, i am a little, well, maybe i am cautious about the word leadership of ukraine. i think that we have already gained a moral circle and definitely that we will be such a moral leader. this is true. how

we will manage to transform this moral leadership in the fact that we repelled the nuclear aggressor state into leadership in specific areas, including economically . this is another issue. we have many of our own shames. that is, digital technologies and our economic ties with african countries, which are now broken, but which will obviously be restored, and our experience in agriculture and so on, that is, all this , well, not only about african countries, you correctly mentioned here also space cooperation and engines and so on. by the way, what about us connects with many of these countries of the global cock are the so-called middle countries middle site yes that is, we are small countries, but we are such average countries, average in area by population and so on. and this is what unites us with many of

these countries and we can offer them cooperation with such countries as kenya, nigeria and latin american countries and many other countries as well, but here, you know , we have to if we want to build a full-fledged cooperation with these countries. we should not limit ourselves only to where now the war and everything, you are absolutely right, you need to look at the perspective , you need to look at a -a -a-a-a-a-a-a-a- a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a. we understand how much was destroyed and how many people left. how have the socio-demographic conditions changed? there will be

big problems here, but on the other hand, well, you know , a crisis is always an opportunity to change something . that is, we will not rebuild something left behind, outdated, what we have left from union, and we can look for new new spheres and navigational areas where we can go and move forward. if possible, i would like to mention another extremely painful topic for us - this is the topic of the disintegration of russia, and evgeny magde also spoke about it, and i think that most of us certainly want it to be happened, but in fact we do not know whether it will happen or not, and if it happens, when what can happen, what can become a trigger , that is, it is absolutely obvious that we have to take this option into account, that we have to work with those forces that are in, say, in

the autonomies of russia and who are in the opposition to the current regime that we have to explain this to our western partners as well. i think that they are already aware that such a scenario can happen, but the real question here is whether to push it and uh. here, i think the answer is rather unlikely, yes, that is, to prepare for such a scenario . the scenario is necessary. but whether it will be launched and it already depends on internal russian and internal russian factors and it is very difficult to predict how this process will go. well, let 's remember how it was with the soviet union, that is, centrifugal forces began to work in the republics

began to proclaim non-independence first, and the declarations of the state somewhere but gorbachev had the possibility of reforming the soviet union, he wanted to sign this union treaty and then what happened is what we call the black swan surprise, that is, the rebellion against gorbachev who actually pushed this pushed this painting along the border lines between union republics, we must understand that in the russian federation it can be, it will be much more difficult because when we talk about national minorities, in many in many national autonomies, they are such minorities. and the majority are ethnic russians, and the national minorities themselves are largely russified , that is, there are exceptions, there are exceptions. that is, there are the republics of the north caucasus, for example, or there, but in many others, well, this process of russification has come very strongly. yes, and from the point of view of the russians, the very

process of russification of leading peoples or national minorities is not so easy here. it is not so easy to compare it with the collapse of the soviet union , so once again i will repeat that as analysts as scientists, we have to consider different options, this is one of the options, but let's say one single bet on it . well, i guess we can't. we probably have to go all the more to the point that this scenario really carries with it a lot, a lot, a lot of dangers, so we have to prepare you asked about several scenarios whether our leaders, our elites, are ready to transform ukraine into a modern european state. well, you know, i think that this war led to great changes. that is, it is an increase

in the support of nato and, well, the european there was a lot of support for the union before, but now we have received candidacy for membership in the eu, we have to fulfill our task, and of course now a lot will depend on how we will fulfill this task. there is a part of people who are victims of corruption scandals but who for some reason remain in the system and at the top and in the system of the ruling party and so on. yes, there are examples when there is a quick reaction, but there are examples when there is no such reaction and here we have continue the pressure of the civil society of the media of the common type, i will tell oleksiy that

in any case, the struggle continues and we just have to move on, there are no defined horizons, we create these horizons , we define them ourselves . thank you. the scientific director of the democratic initiative foundation and a professor of comparative political science at the mohyla academy . from ortho seclor, it was voiced in the times of the roman empire by the poet publinus vergilius maron, e.e. again, now the times are beginning and the great order appears, he wrote, well, and then it was won and it is on the american currency novus ordo sequorum, it appears sooner or later it changes eras, you know, now eras are changing well, let's say you watch the news in congress, there were open hearings, and a former american intelligence officer , david graz, said that the pentagon has samples of human biological substances selected from

the places where ufos fell, and then there are many teachings stanford university is currently developing a cure for cancer. when cancer eats itself, they make such things that will attract cancer cells, which instead of feeding on these substances , well, i don’t know what they are called , they will eat it and eat it. for cancer cells, scientists are now turning it into a poison for cancer cells the world is changing global warming different moments of possible shortages of water changing e-e belts where there will be equatorial where there will be subequatorial where there will be continental where there will be and all this is changing. we live in a time when not only ukraine, the whole world is boiling in kazan, from which something new will appear, there will be many discoveries in them, we will feel a lot of it, and we did not even think that it could be us with those on on the threshold we are in these, we are going into these big changes, that's why you know the only truth is that you don't listen to liars of all kinds, you have to work, move forward and understand that

nothing is stable today in this world, neither in ukraine nor in the whole world in general. now and we are in the process of this creation, but we are paying for it today with blood, someone will pay the money, someone will pay with something else . we do not really know our new order and there is no answer to this, but we must move forward and definitely be ready to be plastic with our psyche , first of all, plastic in order to accept the new , whatever it may be, because we do not know many things, but i will put them before us thank you that you were with us well, you know here it is scary and majestic that we really live in the period when the new world is being created not every generation has such a chance it is either a curse or a blessing i don’t know for everyone to decide for themselves but we are in this

thank you for being with us. it was a worldview program . my name is vasyl. winter, let’s move on and stay tuned to the espresso tv channel . i was born and raised in kharkiv, in a city that suffers from russian weapons every day. i know that poltava has become a home for tens of thousands of displaced people. for me, it is my second hometown, where the best years of my career were spent. thank you to the armed forces of ukraine for the opportunity to play football. there are discounts on elcet tablets 5% in pharmacies

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