[000:00:00;00] available about the ability to analyze, forecast and profit about what the exchange rates of salaries and pensions will be and how the prices of products will change information about everything that affects our wallet and informed means armed see the economics news project with andrii yanitsky on weekdays at 8:10 a.m. with the press , we continue the saturday political club angelika sezonka on the interesting topic of how to improve the demographic situation in ukraine, is it possible in the conditions of the war, he became a doctor of economic languages, a professor in charge of the department of demographic modeling and forecasting, the status of demography and social research, i am satisfied with the national academy of sciences of ukraine , congratulations, mr. dmytro, congratulations, well, let's try to generally assess the current situation with

the demographic situation in the country, in principle, what is it in your opinion, how will the situation develop, to what extent can it be considered that the continuation of the war is directly correlated with the non-return of those ukrainian citizens who left for western countries primarily to escape from hostilities. of course , the situation is complex and difficult. in any situation during any military actions. whenever there is a war, it has a negative effect on the demographic situation, the workload decreases, of course , the mortality rate increases, as in our situation, a huge number of people were forced to emigrate from the country. at the same time, you can see and not such terrible trends as we might have predicted right away, because if we look at the figure that the ministry of justice gives us now, the birth rate has indeed decreased, but it has not decreased as

catastrophically as we predicted from the beginning e-e marriage, we also see that the number of registered marriages is positively impressive . at the same time, we still understand according to our forecasts that in order to have demographic resolution both now and in the future, that is , a certain stability that would ensure the number and quality of the population e- in the future, without e-e measures to return our citizens, it is possible to attract migrants from other countries. could you please provide the statistics that i found, well, this is the last one i found . the un population fund writes that as of

april 2023, 36.7 million people live in ukraine, and among them, almost 65 percent of people are aged 15 to 64. because before the full-scale war, as far as i can remember, something was counted there. of course, we didn't have such an official normal count for a long time. however, somewhere around 39, in my opinion, 40 million was called the number, well, now there are a lot of conversations about the numbers, questions even among them the figures of the question as a matter of gender, age structure, etc., in addition to the question that these numbers can be different , first of all, we can talk about the figure of the population of ukraine within the borders of the 91st year, and we insist on this , but you you understand that it is difficult to calculate the population at the moment within the boundaries of these borders, and it is almost

impossible to calculate it within the territory of the temporarily occupied territory, because it is difficult to calculate it within the territory that is temporarily occupied. that is also the territory that is not now there are places where we can calculate as well, it is quite difficult, er, different types of er calculations are carried out. well, nevertheless, believe that the numbers will differ both according to international data and according to ukrainian data, because the discrepancy in the conditions of war is inevitable and, first of all , it inevitable due to the fact that we cannot count how many people left through the eastern border and first of all there, that is, people could leave through russia and then go somewhere else or stay in russia and in principle this figure is completely incomprehensible plus we cooperate with the verkhovna rada with representatives

supreme commissioner, they currently have a figure on their website of 6 million e-e 240,000 who are in europe. well, there are also a lot of questions about this figure, that 's why one zelensky voiced the idea that it is more correct to say that he already has an idea as to return ukrainians home, but i haven't revealed the details yet, maybe your institute involved you directly in coming up with some ideas on how to improve the demographic situation, i understood that we are now participating in the development of certain strategies of plans. actually, the president and his team, but if we talk directly about myself and our team , well, i would highlight several such points, yes, first of all, it all depends on

how much, when there will be a victory, what the consequences will be. what will be the duration of the war, and a lot has actually been completed because of this dmytro after all, people will definitely arrange their lives abroad in 5 years, and relatively speaking, they probably haven’t had time in a year . of course, the fidelity of return decreases with the duration. we have to provide the cages with important points, this is first of all security, this is housing, this is work, i would single out the organization of corruption. well, the provision of rights and freedoms, in addition to this, it also depends on uh, our uh, european partners from europe, because, for example, the experience of returning uh, migrants to of the balkan countries , the european union of european countries played a very active role there, there were several programs, primarily assistance to communities in

the return of their members to their communities , these were programs related to regional housing programs. this program is a repatriation program and so on. that is, there were a lot of programs that, er, well, in my opinion, they increased the percentage of those who did return and are currently actively living and working in their native countries, and please tell me, in principle, if talk about the situation that exists now with the return of people. yes, we can also imagine a situation when people simply have nowhere to return to even after the war, if housing is destroyed, i can even imagine this territory of liberation. well, well, housing destroyed work, no family, there are no relatives who have also left, maybe to other regions of ukraine, where can a person go back

, relatively speaking , you still have to return to a foreign place, well, to your own country. i don't know in wroclaw and i need to return to conditional lviv. well, by and large, she learned polish , she already lives in lviv, you need to go to ukrainian, which she could not communicate in daily life in mariupol, this is also the same relocation to another, to another, i need money to rent an apartment. conditionally speaking, yes, that's why i said that in the first place there are three main yes priorities and again, uh, previous experience related to the balkan countries, uh, they helped the balkans restore housing, helped restore life, work, and so on, that is, the programs were as follows

they were specific, they were provided to the communities, it was clear that this is all individual , one can go to lviv, one cannot go, one wants to go to mariupol, the third wants to stay in poland, again, it depends on the position of the countries in which they are now migrants also depend on a lot because well, for example, tomorrow victory in our country will improve life in social programs, it is clear that those who could not get a job will be canceled. it is time and it is clear that in all such circumstances people will return .

imagine the population of ukraine after the war well, at least approximately how it should look, i can imagine approximately, i say again it depends on when we will have victory, but we aim at 30 31 million and uh, the achievement of our own demographic resilience by these numbers and by the way, with the birth rate, if you know the statistics, they say that during the war, more boys are born, but i looked and saw that, in principle, it was almost 50 to 50. no, this is a classic process, there are always 1.5-2% more boys born, but this well, how is it that's what the boys say are born more and more during the war no-no-no it is always the ratio between born boys and girls is always stable and always a little bit by a couple of percent

er-er more years before the full-scale invasion how much was the percentage of women there or men here or the number of the population is already revealed, well, it is clear that there are more women in our country than men, unfortunately, the mortality rate is very high, and hmm, starting somewhere around 35-40 years old, men are the most, yes, there are quite a few more men than let's say, if we take all of this population, it is clear that the percentage of women is more. well, it is much more or not significantly. well, it depends on the age groups, you understand. if we are talking about 10-20 years, then already in 20 years, it is approximately the same, and then

starting from the age of 25-30, the numerical percentage of women begins to predominate, but now there should be fewer women after you. they just leave, and many are getting divorced at the moment, er, we can’t say clearly how to determine this ratio yet, you understand for yourself because we are now trying different options for counting the population. it takes time, 30 million for such a territory, let's imagine even the best option for ukraine, that the entire territory of ukraine is liberated from the aggressors, that ukraine has established control over the east of the crimea and the crimea - this is what ukraine generally wants in this war, we don't know how the war will end, let's say right away that the war is a war, but it may not end as the ukrainians expect, it

may not end as the russians expect, it may not end in the nearest 10-15 years. the conflicts in it are long, but imagine that the entire territory is liberated, a large part of the inhabitants of crimea and the eastern and southern territories of ukraine are moving to the russian federation, this is also a process that is almost inevitable, taking into account what is already there the knees of people who do not associate themselves with ukraine are growing up, and only people who would like to live in ukraine and in such a ukraine that will be destroyed after the war, socially determined, so-so , so-so, complex state, not everyone wants to live there, what will be the structure of the population can stay there won't we get a huge part of the empty territory? this is russian siberia in the east of the country. maybe in the south there will simply be emptiness. well, for example, this year

, canada celebrated the crossing of the population population of 40 million, can you imagine such an area of ​​canada? yes, there is somewhere, as far as i remember, 10 million square kilometers, that is, a huge territory. the question is how to organize the territorial process . how to organize the resettlement process . there will be no one, but you understand that people always go where there is work, where there are prospects, especially young people, this applies to young people, yes, they always go there where there is a prospect , and that is why it is already a question of post-war reconstruction and in principle, i don't see anything so critical in this. the second question is that we really have an aging population by that time, and it is clear that the aging process will intensify in connection

with these issues. we are talking about the fact that we will probably still have to actively implement the return policy of our citizens and whether it is possible to temporarily or fully involve migrants. this is a classic practice . for example, you are in austria. every year, according to the migration program, 26,000 people remain in austria. of migrants, life, standard of living in austria, in eastern ukraine, yes, you understand, well, in austria, there are 9 million people, count 26,000 - these are classes every year, but they can be interested in post-war ukraine, we have to invite people and how to encourage them, you understand that everything depends on what from uh, if investments will go to us, then why not? i think they will definitely go, because five people will wake up right away

, in fact, and i think that, especially in countries with overpopulation, this is one of the options, you understand. let's not talk about a panacea that it should actually be so different and how to create programs to attract migrants, here angelica is right here, the question of the program is if there are, if there are jobs , ukrainians return, if there are no jobs, ukrainians do not return but what do we do with grants if migrants return, do you understand then we don't talk about anything at all, they have to be there, there is no other option, well , when we return there, we have compared the situation with canada, but in canada, people live in absolutely specific areas because the other areas are areas of, let's say, cold provinces and there simply are no conditions for such an ordinary, let's say, european

life to which the majority of the population of canada who moved there is simply on the territory of some areas may not be inhabited for a certain time, but it is controlled there population density small, but they also have gas and oil fields there, where they can be, well, is it possible to compare the territory that is a forest-steppe with the territory that is, in essence, well , i don’t know how to call it a taiga by and large according to the tundra in russia is not inhabited tag therefore it is logical scanati, by the way, it is not such a territory, there are no forests growing there anymore , it is an agglomeration, you understand, we are comparing taiga, which has no population , how to develop agriculture well, believe me, in many countries in europe, the rural areas have quite a small number of people, nevertheless, they

fully provide 80-90% of the food for their country in relation to such front-line territories, yes. and what about the territories that suffered the most? the example of israel, where it is clear to the people who live in such territories, yes, they have separate preferences, separate surcharges for such possible increased security, and so on, and the number of the population in the same health, it must be recognized , does not increase, decreases well, nevertheless , we can say that we in fact, we don't have real recipes. well, i wouldn't say that there are no recipes at all - i don't think so. doctor of economic sciences, professor , head of the department of demographic modeling and forecasting

, ptukh institute of demography and social research. i'm at mr. vitaliy, i will ask another question: we have, literally, before the next guest, just a minute. and i’m just curious about the jobs, so if we have them right, then either ukrainians will stay or return, or migrants will come to us , who creates jobs, well, the business state is sometimes, but more business creates jobs and now, what is being done with business, business is already closing down, small entrepreneurs are closing their doors, closing their companies because they are simply being pressured by the tax burden, taxes are increasing, well, listen if the war will continue for years, we must honestly say that the ukrainian economy is already dead , there is no need for any illusions in such a macro version , metallurgy, agriculture, small business will always be as it is, if there is no pressure on it, but this is not the creation of jobs, and this does not mean that the dead economy cannot be revived after the war , the question of wages may be raised again, if

people can receive european-style wages, they will return from european countries to germany. i apologize , it is more profitable to live on the social program to receive a salary in ukraine this is just such a reality and even a minimal one, to be honest. we already have many friends who are abroad and tell us that even if they receive a minimum salary, they can live better than in ukraine, minimum salaries, some compensations, etc., so what a million, everyone understands this perfectly, so then we can really attract migrants and pay them a small amount of money, i am in third world countries and ukrainians will receive such money, this will be a third world country. talk about a country like pakistan and there will be pakistanis working in them. well, this is also a possible option, but you just have to understand that miracles do not happen. we perceive the end of the war as the transformation of ukraine into switzerland at

the end of the war turns ukraine into pakistan and peaceful pakistan, and this and will be our great happiness for more people, the question arises whether it is possible for those people who chose ukraine and are ready to live in such social conditions for years and for their children to live in such social conditions to join them people who live in the conditions of a different world, a world of a much different nature, this is a very big question, ukrainians are not very ready. it seems to me that encouraging people means that these people will have to be paid much more to return than to the people who live here and these people who live here would to say that it is unfair, what is it? she is beautiful . they lived for themselves in poland, germany, which we were under shelling as a result. we live here, well, there are many questions, the details, as always, yours are true, i think they are forecasts, but they are the realities that

await us oleksandr kharov is already in touch with us, a diplomat, an expert on foreign and security policy of the center for defense strategies. greetings, sir. good evening. so let's talk about aid in the united states, they say that they are ready , as the administration wants, to go to congress to get this aid, how do you think, in principle , how stable is the aid of the united states? well, you know, this is becoming more and more a little more problematic, because on the one hand, uh, of course, there is some kind of fatigue, well, this is such a general thing, and the most important thing is that ukraine has become an internal political factor in the united states, and we are received literally every april by the trembians and they say why should we uh, it means giving money to ukrainians when it means that we have not solved the problems there and so on. and you know, the last ones literally. last

week, there was almost a flash mob when they showed a video or a picture from the peaceful life of kyiv and said, look, look, this is how it is in kyiv on our money lives on. and look at the streets of some small town in the united states where there are drug addicts, if anything . well, of course, i am creating a special contrast , which of course will not be of any use, but i literally looked before the broadcast. there were two opinion polls by cnn and p' according to the institute, 55% of americans say that there is no need to give additional aid to ukraine, and 45% say that it is only necessary for the time being, the united states provided us with security, and only $42.8 billion in aid. and now president biden is appeal to the congress to provide ukraine with an additional 24 billion in total, but 13 billion for security. well, of course, this will be a discussion . of course, all these trumpians will

say that this money does not need to be pickled. well, even more so considering the scandals that are going on. ukraine is also tied to hunter biden and it seems that the corruption of biden himself is connected with ukraine. of course , if it actually existed, it is connected with ukraine during the time of yanukovych and other very good owners who are now in the russian federation . is located but for propaganda domestic, that's enough. well, it's very interesting that uh, actually, you know, it's such an interesting phenomenon that the democrats have become like cold war hawks , like cold war republicans, and uh, the republics, on the contrary, are extremely liberal. 62% of democrats say that they should vote for additional aid in the a time when only a third, a little less than a third, of republicans think so, that is, clones are not very favorable for us, but

of course, the senate is controlled by the democrats in the house of representatives, although there are these are the nuances of more than 50 republicans who are very much against us, but in general , in principle, a consensus can be reached during the vote, since this vote will not only be with the help of ukraine. well, it will also include those things that are needed for their own americans. well, this is what they always do. that's the package. let's see. of course, what's next. and then it will be problematic, and all the more so because the most important thing is that we are all horrified. i think ukrainians are waiting for this worm-fighting election in the united states. of course, it is a big danger for us that in 24 hours, trump will solve the ukrainian issues. well, i understand that if ukraine surrenders

, we will have no hope in this regard. and all the more so that you must follow these legal battles that are currently unfolding around the trump himself, but it is interesting. by the way, let there be hunter biden around , a special adviser was appointed, or rather, the acting prosecutor who will investigate and then publicly report to the contras. are there really corruption schemes related to ukraine and, in fact, all the corruption that extends to the white house, mr. oleksandr, that is, the supporters of ukraine also want an explanation from biden regarding the increase. and for our help, it is not just some thought-out media, it really is. well, you know, i really liked what the best of our friends, it's the same benhodges. he says that he, well, he is basically a republican. but of course he looks at it from the point of view

of the national interests of the united states and also what is happening in europe. so he criticizes biden for what he did not find those right words and those right er, let's say messages, that would er, convince ordinary americans that you should continue to support ukraine, and this is meant primarily from the point of view of the national interests of the united states, and that uk-, er, americans do not need to fight with the russian federation and only 0.3% of gdp is what they've given us since january of last year. it's too small , well, a nice small price to pay to destroy half the war potential of the biggest nuclear power that thinks the united states is the biggest threat to it. so what is called political realism, the arguments should be used more, let's say, the administration than the fact that this is an authoritarian world

against a democratic one, which means that we only need to help the ukrainians. from the point of view of what this gives the americans directly, what kind of threat do we uh-uh, so we divert here it should be said that ukraine should change something uh-uh messages are these the messages of our strategic communications we have to say thank you. to be honest, it's difficult for me to criticize the president and the minister of foreign affairs of their defense and other deputies. of the united kingdom, then jake sullivan, the national security adviser, again said that i am grateful, and it is not that you are ungrateful, but that we

owe nothing to anyone, we are not allies of any panada any in some other formats, and therefore all that is given to us is the goodwill of all countries, and that is exactly why they want us to change our rhetoric a little, including the fact that when we say that we are an outpost there in europe, we defend the free world from barbarians, in fact it is yes, but this they don't quite perceive it the further from the russian border well, of course , it looks so little, you know, from above, and that's why it seems to me that it's time to adjust something to our needs, and of course, i think that it is necessary to strengthen the presence information of ukraine

in the united states . i mean not only the articles. from an emotional point of view, yes, what is being genocided here, what is oppressed? there, religions are different, what is actually being destroyed. civilization on the territory of ukraine and from the point of view of the national interests of the united states. americans spend 43 cents out of their own pockets to help us destroy the largest power, the 20-level potential of the largest nuclear power in the world, and it seems to me that this is a small amount of money, well, absolutely , even for the not-so-well-off sections of the population, the only thing they need to understand is how much it is it is important in this large configuration across the ocean and not only directly er-e let's say it diverts certain resources from solving their problems that they face every day and tell mr.