[000:00:00;00] to the soviet union, but due to the fact that they had a very negative attitude towards communism. and when communism disappeared, now the right-wing republicans . er, somehow the understanding of what is happening in ukraine, whether there is a war or russian aggression, just needs to be added that in general for americans the most important thing is what directly concerns their lives, first of all their economic life and what is happening in the world is less important for ordinary americans, they pay less attention to it, but ukraine is constantly present in the american news, when something happens in ukraine -

it is very very . every new russian missile attack is so widely covered, for example , it is covered in of the american mass media. i think that the answer to your question must first be found in the biological disposition of the american public. the survey was conducted. i would trust the surveys of the daws service most of all, because they are the most representative, that is, they reflect the composition of the us population absolutely accurately, and there the survey is conducted among a larger number of people, but also in their surveys, they conduct them approximately once every six months, the same thing happened there, which was reduced how many people who believed that ukraine should be unconditionally supported primarily decreased due to the fact that

support for ukraine among republicans decreased mr. igor trump demands from congress in of the united states of america to stop military support for ukraine, in particular his latest statement. he said that support should be stopped until joe biden's administration cooperates in the investigation of his family's business dealings, and will trump's calls have any effect on the republicans in congress, well, trump in fact, there is such a faction in the republican faction in pavlo you representatives. i say that it consists of approximately 70-80 republican members of the house of representatives . these are trumpists with far-right views or right-wing populist members of the house of representatives, well, you understand. they are always against aid

to ukraine, they voted against all previous aid packages to ukraine, that is, there is nothing new here . i don’t think that these statements by trump can have an impact on those republican members of congress who support ukraine and who previously voted for the help of ukraine but of course there are many supporters of trump in the republican party itself, my assessment what among 39 million registered republicans, at least 20 million, these are just people who adore trump. well, of course they listen to him, uh, in the congress itself , i say that somewhere 70-80 out of 20,021 republican members submit representatives , this is such a faction of trump the news still voted against all previous

packages of aid to ukraine, that is, nothing new is happening here. i don't think it's about the storming of the capitol, in which trump was accused not so long ago, what is the essence of these accusations, how does trump position this the case and what the results of this investigation are known to date, well, trump positions all investigations in which he is a figurehead as a witch hunt, this is his favorite expression, and from the essence of the accusations, you listed them right before, before my inclusion, absolutely correctly e. there are three main charges , one of which is the charge that there was a conspiracy with the purpose of obstructing the work of the congress, obstructing

the congress from performing its constitutional functions, which are provided for by the constitution and the law, that is, approving of the results of the presidential elections ah this is a conspiracy with the aim of putting pressure on other officials well, it is absolutely transparent that this is the former vice president pence with the aim of forcing er his -e misleading the united states and voters a-a well, this is a case of fake fake colleagues of voters in seven states where you won the election biden was the creation of such fake colleagues

who sent fake forged protocols to congress and to the national archives, as required by this law on the presidential elections, er, um, of course, everything was done illegally. well, it’s just trump to bring charges of conspiracy a-a with the implementation of the entire scheme, and er, because of that, there is also another point of accusation is that trump would be his accomplices in this case. they wanted to actually disenfranchise those voters from these seven states who voted for biden and the majority of voters voted in these seven states by color. this is a very serious accusation, there is nothing if he will recognized he faces a criminal trial. well, many years of imprisonment there, no, no, 560, that's with all the charges in three criminal cases

that will be brought against him, well, here, anyway, there are several tens of years not taken just for this case, and he, by the way, most likely next week or a week later, there will be a very high probability that charges will be brought in the states, so that will also apply to the elections, that he illegally put pressure, well, in fact, this is an accusation of the national team , so that he, uh, blackmailed, put pressure on the leadership of the george election commission, in particular, the secretary of state, george, the employees of the election commissions, so that they codified the results of george's presidential election in his favor, although he defeated george in the byda elections, you understand the problem is that all these criminal cases have no effect on trump's popularity among

republicans, there are about 39 million registered republicans, about 20 million of them support trump, absolutely regardless of what trump himself once said that if he goes out in new york on 5th avenue for someone, none of his supporters will refuse him, well, if it can be explained . so why is there such and such a blind adoration of trump among republicans. and here you say that republicans are affected. the american population is affected by these issues. does it add pluses or, on the contrary, minuses? it affects the republicans. their 39 million voters in the united states are approximately 200-200-15-220 million . that is, the republicans are only a part of the voters, just like the democrats, it is only

part of the voters of the registered democrats where or more than the registered republicans well, but about half or even more of the voters of the united states are so-called independents, that is, they do not belong to either of the two major parties or belong to some small parties on people usually it is influenced by e- because there is a difference between the perception of trump by those supporters of his republican party who really adore him and ordinary people who do not have any political views at all because if, let's say, trials took place before the elections, if he is found guilty, well, although it is absolutely certain that the verdicts before the elections will enter into force, because if he is found guilty, he will file an appeal , an appeal of the holy case, you can be considered for a year and 1.5 and 2 years in

but of course it will have a corresponding effect on average voters and independent voters. that is, because the average people in the united states do not have high trust in the courts, as well as the constitution , that is, if the court finds someone guilty that means people, it is unlikely that the majority of people can consider such a person not convicted, because of some kind of warning, that is, people respect the court's decision, and why is he popular among these 20 million republicans , unfortunately, this is a little ordinary the cult of the personality is the same as the cult of the personality of stalin. this is absolutely no different, that is, some part of the soviet people

adored stalin. stalin is a hero again, an example of a historical example, well, americans are the same people who, like all people , and among them, too, unfortunately, there are people, moreover, there are a large number of them, who, when such a character as trump appeared, they decided that this it is precisely the personification of their desires that they would like everyone to be like that or that he would go anyway. earns well, because emigrants have arrived they took away their jobs. we will drive them out and you will earn a lot. on the one hand, this is ridiculous. on the other hand, there are many people who believe this

despite absolutely nothing. and here is the paradox that uh, a person who has already been nominated for three uh, three criminal cases official indictment and very likely the fourth case will be indicted in a week, two weeks at most she is the most likely presidential candidate from one of the only two american political parties games thank you thank you for a traditional detailed excursion into the current reality of american politics. igor eisenberg, a professor at new york university, was with us on a direct video link, friends, stay with us . we will be back in a few minutes, like

crows who approach victory without weapons in their hands, but with brave hearts, they are brave to go through flames and smoke to save the victims, dare to go out on mined lands so that the light in our homes is restored, dare not to make a mistake when there is no right to make a mistake, because the fate of millions depends on it, dare to give hope and faith that everyone who waits for help will not remain in trouble where a person experiences the most terrible moments unarmed heroes rescuers of the emergency services are approaching victory and

fight for every life tell me honestly how anxiety prevents you from doing things then imagine it as a drawing in a book and the book just lies on your lap now close postpone it and come back to us to learn other ways to improve your condition, go to the how are you.com website. next , we will talk about the economic realities in which ukraine lives today. inflation in ukraine slowed down in july, its rate was slightly more than 11% were counted in the state statistics, and prices, primarily for cereals and flour, due to the low cost of exports, the rate of increase in fuel prices also slowed down somewhat, however

, experts predict a moderate increase within two hryvnias throughout august, according to the national bank of ukraine, the tendency to reduce inflation in the near future is expected to continue 10 .6% at the end of this year and 8.5% the next 100 rubles for one dollar in russia the day before the currency of the aggressor country reached historically one euro at the same time was worth more than 109 rubles in general at the beginning of 2023, the exchange rate of the dollar in the russian federation increased by more than 38%, and the euro by 42%. according to blumbach's version, this ensured the russian currency a place in the three weakest together with the turkish lira and the argentine peso. so, what does the sharp weakening of the russian ruble mean for the economy of the aggressor country? well, and most importantly, what should we ukrainians prepare for? what kind of economic realities are we living in today ? to speak with an expert, this is hryhoriy

kukurza, economist, ukraine, economy of outlu , hryhoriy, we welcome you. good evening, eh grigory regarding ukrainian realities, let's start with them, which factors contribute to the slowdown of inflation today and even a small but still decrease in consumer prices. the first point is that the prices of raw materials are significantly lower than those assumed in last year's forecasts, and gas at 350 and dollars now gave tsitsiev, so they expected there , well, there is another 600 + minimum, that is, if at all the jump in gas prices began in august of the 21st year, it was like this . well, the economic aggression of russia on the eu gas market. the invasion was a weak point, the cold winter of the previous year in europe, the depletion of reserves, the rapid growth

of china's demand, and, at the same time, it significantly reduced supplies of gas to the european market, and russia, all three factors took place at the same time , and that was it it was one of the most terrible years for the industry, and now this situation is leveling off very quickly, and often russia has fallen below 10% on the gas market, which has been replaced by supplies from the united states, plus certain measures given there to reduce consumption. prices, gas prices flew down sharply, this is actually, well, the diameter, which is the main source for the suspension, actually, the pace of consultation , even ventilation, not because we printed the money, as we distributed it to everyone. everyone went to supermarkets to spend more, the key inflation in us is cost inflation, even 22 well, it was a purely war year, now consumer inflation is about 20%, there is something like 15 or 21

, and the production price index of producers in our country was about 55%. that is, we have such an absolutely classic cost inflation due to certain factors enterprises have stopped work somewhere, of course, the course is somewhere growing for electricity and gas. and all this was reflected in the increase in the cost price, and by the way, if we are talking about a certain perspective, gas prices will continue to level off, actually, to the level of two there by august 21st plus ports and we currently have an extremely low competitive ability because, well, all imports now come exclusively to the western borders , how much will it be cheaper logistically if the sea ports are restored again?

of import of grigoriy a-a at the end of july 2023 in connection with the slowdown of e-e inflation , the national bank began to reduce the discount rate, it was generally reduced from 25 to 22% for the first time, should we expect another reduction in connection with the slowdown of the inflation rate e well, actually, the forecast of the national bank on lowering the discount rate, and the steps, the steps, the difficult steps , well, that's exactly right, it's just the paste of this 57-9, we are lowering the discount rate in order to develop lending, and business is already too used to preferential loans 579, actually, no especially reacts to the rate itself, because only the budget of the ministry of economy, which covers the difference, reacts. what we can clearly see is that november is the term of the structural beacon from the imf for the revision of the 579 program.

stimulation of the economy, they are decreasing . that is, well, we will probably see a reduction in industries and a reduction in lines, maybe the only ones will expand agrarians due to the loss from the oral corridor, and then i can’t, i can’t guarantee, and that’s why, well, this cycle reduction of the discount rate and interest rates on loans, enter very synchronously, the discount rate of several banks is reduced. well, they immediately report that we have lowered the rate on these deposit products, yes , we have lowered the rate on these loans, yes, and, well, with a further decrease in the discount rate we have such and such a plan of action, and therefore and well, for sure, the business will have to get used to the market value of funds, which will be much lower than during the uh, well, the market value during the war, but it will be

higher than usual preferential 89 in terms of cost of fuel and the growth of this cost has been quite noticeable over the past month and a half, in your opinion, what effect will it have and when will this effect be fully manifested ? of course, vat has been returned. excise duties were returned . there were forecasts of uah 11-12 per liter. now it still seems a little lower. and they added to the fuel, honestly, well, it’s hard to say because the market is very closed, it doesn’t quite comply with all the market rules , there are a lot of difficult vats on the market, which will also restrain prices with them. the expectations of market participants who can introduce licensing will remain only very large operators, all smaller operators will be eligible, this will give somewhere to restrain prices from er, from decreasing, for sure maybe somewhere will affect

the growth here, let's say so, the fuel market is now well, just like individual electricity is not the market, which is now regulated exclusively by additional rules, because literally a week or two ago, there were photos there again, somewhere there was a very strong arrival at the oil production base, and they are losing funds for non-market factors and this well, this is reflected in the price of fuel, you have to treat it absolutely normally, mr. grigory . and what can we expect from the exchange rate , how stable is the foreign exchange market now ? there were some jumps in the cash rate there from 37-20 to 370, and they ended everyone literally in a week and there were interesting observations that people like to write something there that the rate there went up sharply when it returns to its previous value

somehow well there everyone everyone uh, i don’t notice it let's say yes, no, the cash rate, we see that it is completely tied to the official one with this small spread at some points. it is even lower than the card transaction rate in your bank, candidate 3712 37 12, and the official rate is more interesting than the official rate. knows when it will be reviewed, but according to our internal calculations, it is not the next month because , let's say, a return to the floating exchange rate - this, including, well, it is happening at a certain stage of currency liberalization now in our country. so far, at the stage where we are building up reserves, we are doing certain monetary easing, the discount rate is being reduced. however, in relation to some outflow of currency , we are all keeping all the key restrictions that were, that is, we cannot pay these logos to previous loans

, and distribution of dividends and there are such large, large articles, some very, very, not small steps are being taken, but they are well, more on the attraction of currencies, on the contrary, if you have attracted a new loan, you can pay both the whole amount and the interest on it, well, i have attracted the entire loan today in the currency and there to give it there for the next 5 years of significant years of currency liberalization they did not yet have a rate it is there yes somewhere well on on on for three quarters of the national bank's liberalization card there is a trident it appears in the currency trisubzit so it is also called well that is, no no in in the next month, switch to the floating exchange rate, if you switch to the floating rate, most likely, this is already from the 24th, the first moment , the second moment, there is also no sharp jump of the human jump of hryvnias , anyway, it won’t happen, well, you know that clearly

the foreign exchange market as it was before the war, when all the inter-officers there traded at different rates, well, in the middle of the day, the exchange rate fluctuated freely , the national currency there reached its 20 or 50 million dollars, with 350 plus the average turnover per day on the market, and it is not particularly there influenced now, the national bank will go out there and sell to everyone all day, roughly speaking , there at 39-20 and everyone will adapt to this new rate of the national bank , which it will simply change on a daily basis, and it is probably not the most market rate the mechanism and then - these are the realities , well, from which point two should be based, the second point is that the markets are improving now, the expectation is that if the national bank is conducting a survey of financial analysts of enterprises, if before that they still expected the exchange rate to be somewhere at 401 plus, then now it is up to corridor 39 40 40 and a half when returning to the floating

exchange rate, some earth-shattering jump is definitely not expected. of any economy, how acute is this problem today and how much does it hinder the recovery of the ukrainian economy, which suffered a colossal decline after the full-scale russian invasion ? - and somewhere there are people from the middle east or from asia and that they improved our demographic balance and helped us recover a-a too well, what exactly are we? there are right here today even before the beginning after the great great post-war recovery, we now have official unemployment of 19%, with a labor force of 12-13 million, it is still 2 million citizens who de facto cannot find a job , that is, there is an official state unemployment rate

, it has already fallen there, it seems lower than 100,000 of persons there there are a lot of questions to oh now to hmm to the state budget itself, including there were sharp declines because you can only receive payments for three months, you definitely need a certificate from this, from the tcc, what you stand for. there are very, very many of these internal questions and well or because of which the number of unemployed people you will read has fallen sharply, in fact it is still there, we have two and two now millions of citizens who cannot find a job, plus after the war 1.1 million men, and some of them definitely return home, well, these are very conservative estimates - this is 3 million adults. yes, there is an economically active population who will look for active work and want to find it at the level of at least there, yes. well, a little above the average salary, now there is

$ 450,500. roughly speaking, all these jobs are business which must somehow be created in order for us, well, first to receive the numbers, and they didn’t leave in search of a-a job somewhere abroad , and then think about how to build a date there. is there an official new york with the involvement of many labor migrants there, and it will definitely be sure that everyone will have uh jobs and well, all these jobs, well, they will actually be on a market basis, because now, well, there are armed forces, it is the main number, the key, the key, the element of whom to wages and salaries to create employment, how is it then to create market conditions, well, for this we need institutes, oh yes, and a stable macroeconomic situation and a stable situation with law enforcement agencies, various mitigations

, tax benefits, that is, it is, well, its own difficult track, how to first create these three million workers places for citizens of ukraine who will look for work and then build something much grander, well, i want to return with you to the discussion of exchange rates, but not ukrainian ones. and regarding that what is happening in the russian federation, because they already ask for 100 rubles for $1, and the euro cost 109. what is happening there? on the foreign exchange market and in what state is the russian economy now? look, they are stable due to the exchange rate. they have internal problems with the fact that there are few of them, export revenue comes precisely in dollars or euros, expert revenue in illiquid yuan is enough for the indian group, and there, well, not so easily, they can be rebalanced immediately to the dollar, euros, on which imports are tied, plus

the equalization of budget revenues is energy-dependent the country is leveling off, the exchange rate is increasing, budget revenues are conceptually, i would just remember that there are three population groups there, yes, with ordinary ordinary russians, it has a small share of imports, consumption there, yes, up to 15 to 15%, it is not particularly dependent on imports, even if something becomes more expensive for it no one particularly cares that the average russian has become poorer there , it is the opposite, in some ways russia should be turkey - this is an inverted model, the poorer the citizen, the better for a year ago because they have much cheaper labor and products there is supplied supplied for export to the global economy, whether there is oil, or whether there are any metals or what , coal, all of this is tied to world prices, the lower the salary in