[000:00:00;00] it is possible that these were just electronic components , but it seems to me that they were even just high-precision to grow, which are needed for the production of weapons, because the sanctions affected not only the ban on the export of the units themselves, but everything else , they also touched on the maintenance of high-precision machines that are now being produced weapons, but it was also russia , most likely they found a way out of this situation, how to fight if, objectively, returning to the example of iran, they did not find ways that would allow to effectively counteract something in this another example is north korea, which is generally just an isolated country, and despite this, they also brag about the development of weapons. they recently demonstrated another successful launch , in fact, a successful continental political missile. this is a rather difficult technology to master, and this is what north korea did

, that is, how to deal with this situation when there is such a country like china, well, open objectively , thank you very much oleg for including oleg kotkov as an expert, the viewer of defense express was in touch with us well, then a short break and we will return to this important topics, we will look for an answer, how to put the russian economy on the shoulders, chevrons that bring victory closer, their eyes, radio engineering troops, their shield, anti -aircraft missile troops, their frog, aviation, the air

forces of the armed forces of ukraine hold the sky above us and beat the occupier on the ground. thank you , defenders of the sky. glory to the air forces of the armed forces ukraine, you had enough strength to stop the enemy at the beginning of the war, every day we find the strength step by step to return ours and we definitely have enough strength to achieve victory . glory to the defense forces of ukraine, we are moving forward if a person close to you has joined the armed forces of ukraine. you should know the title, position, number of the military

unit of the battalion company, the contacts of the commanders, and the contacts of comrades will be useful. keep calm and support each other. 1+1 returns to the air. mr. oleg well, oleg katkov and i have come to the point that we need to stop the double export of triple there are some supply chains in russia of military chips, machine tools and weapons the world still can't or do we have a chance to squeeze russia economically in such a way that it simply has nothing to buy all this for, we understand that this is our only

opportunity in this war to end it with an internal detonation of money that's how the brain is we focused on what concerns the chips. as i said, we chased it, yes, it can really narrow these channels , and this is what the big countries of the western countries are doing. 40 40 from 40 to 45%, uh, of the revenues of the federal budget of the russian federation - this is exactly uh, oil and gas, uh, regarding gas they did everything themselves, uh, in principle , there is no need to do anything additionally , they themselves refused the most reliable uh of their partners from the european union, these gas pipelines were blown up, most likely by the russian federation , but no one admits to this, the reduction of supply by others in the pipelines, so basically in the gas sector

they did everything themselves and their incomes decreased by more than half with oil is a lot more interestingly, they are quite interested, and it was the largest export income in the supply of their oil, and here the world community conducted an unprecedented sanction, the best that could be invented, there was a joint and international group working on sanctions, there are ukrainian economists, and this is the so-called the sanction on the price, that is, if the whole world stopped the supply, and russia, unfortunately, supplies about 10% of the world's exports, it is oil , if you simply stopped it, it led to a crazy shortage, the prices would rise, they would make money in the first place er, sheikhs, in the second place, again, the russian federation, which still supplied in china, so just refuse there. yes, imposing a burden there was not an option, that is why this sanction was at the price, which conditionally preserves volumes, but

reduces income as much as possible, and in the ideal is to reduce it to the cost price, of course, let's explain that this is the price ceiling, which for crude oil seems to be $60, was set for petroleum products at $100. and above this price , it was impossible to sell or buy, or rather, in russia , it was not possible. there, some cunning scheme was organized through insurers, that is the insurance of this oil did not occur if the price ceiling was exceeded , but just now i am reading in the news that reuters reports that this price ceiling is not being observed by buyers for some reason, how did this happen, the usa is preparing to react in some way, please explain what happened there yes yes yes i i just wanted to say this now. well, the graph shows how the price ceiling worked. yes. if you can show the graph, the first graph is the second

. this is data from authoritative world sources. millions of euros, the first graph and the second graph are in thousands of tons, and over the years you can see how the income of the russian federation decreases , if there, well, in the 22nd year, at the beginning, they received almost a billion euros a day from oil and gas, well, accordingly, somewhere around there, a little more than half of the oil, we see how these volumes are decreasing and how the european union is marked with this color, as it basically went to zero , the european union does not consume, and well, this blue one, well, there is just another light blue, it is there and we see who actually buys this oil, yes, china buys it stably, it’s so red, so it’s stable, india buys it and a little higher, it’s uh, turkey , so basically three countries. now they are the biggest

consumers, in fact, uh, they save russia from being supplanted by the arab countries there and from this market, again, china is slightly spoiling the world's great game of suppressing this aggressor, but at the same time, we see that it is shrinking almost by half , revenues have shrunk and little by little they have even started to shrink, the last two months have started on the second graph, we can see even the volumes are decreasing, so little by little because of the fact that with greater production of the usa, certain agreements have begun with venezuela, everything is very difficult there, there is another scoundrel, but for the sake of suppressing this bigger scoundrel who is ready with us, they are even ready to negotiate with the smaller scoundrels who seemed to have promised democratic elections next year, is this maduro yes, and that is why even venezuela began to supply there little by little, also at

the expense of the fact that other countries are adequate, which are not included in the cartel, for example, should choose throw out more volumes of oil, it is possible to reduce the volume of supplies with the russian federation even without leading to a world deficit. so how do we see how critically this affects the russian budget on their economy. that is, we see a drop - that's cool, but we want to see what as a result of this drop in volumes and revenues from energy sales in russia , their economy will be er, what is happening to the economy, this is exactly what happened last year . three trillion rubles is a fairly significant amount, and a deficit of two and seven trillion was planned for this year, but it was already exceeded as of a month ago, the deficit had already exceeded one trillion, and if the russians had not done anything , the deficit at the end of the year would have been 7-8 million, which

could in principle, to completely sacrifice their national welfare fund and then there is simply no way to go anywhere, but the russians resorted to the compensation mechanism that we predicted , they could make two options, either start printing rubles or start gradually release the ruble in order to get more rubles for the same uh dollars already at the new exchange rate and fill them up in the same way. devaluation always leads to inflation, inflation fuels devaluation, it's such a spiral, and russians are already impoverished this year by 10-15%. if the spiral spins well infectious devaluation

then you can expect anything, even a repeat of 1996 there, and when the population is poorer every day. and it feels like how it will affect the russian government, the russian elite, the course of the company, no one can predict, but when the population is poorer and poorer and almost palpable in all countries sooner or later some changes took place, but what exactly no one can predict, sometimes it is a conspiracy of the elite, sometimes it is people who do everything, sometimes just a dictator dies under unknown circumstances, so here is the history of the last 200 years, especially the last teams you will not believe it, they have already found the culprit in this situation, or rather the culprit. this is, of course, ms. biolyana elvira sahibzadivna, who heads the russian central bank, an extremely talented russian fina, who, according to the opinion of knowledgeable people inside russia, and not those who

watch mr. solovyov on tv, actually saved ruble from such a stupid devaluation even at the beginning of the large-scale invasion of february 24 last year and if it were not for her extremely cunning and competent actions on this financially in this she played in such financial instruments that she possesses, as they say, simply virtuosic, then we would already have seen some absolutely , well, fantastic exchange rate of the ruble, she kept it . but now hmm, well, all the financial instruments , how magical they were, were they once , their effect is already ending. so now, of course , you can send it to the byulin to resign, and it would probably be the best gift for ukraine. if this happened, it is possible, i don't know . maybe she could help it somehow

. she herself would be happy. they will understand that putting some moron at the head of such a sensitive instrument as the bang center would be very good for ukraine and very bad for russia, unfortunately they also understand that, so ms. nabiulina is probably not in danger of resigning, but what do you think or with all her possibilities with all let's say, with all the professionalism - with all the professionalism of the russian financiers who, unfortunately, are now working for the criminal russian state , will the rumble still last within some such , you know, conditionally safe framework in the near future? is it still expected by some a rapid collapse. will this fall be quite smooth and not very noticeable, not very painful, painful for the population, and accordingly will not lead to any significant social consequences, well, they still have a certain reserve in the national welfare fund, after

all, there are still 7-8 recoverable reserves there trillions in various e currencies, so e-e opportunities e-e gold and currency reserves, which were gold and currency reserves for this purpose, they have already been exhausted, there remained only e-e monetary gold and arrested 300 billion which are under the eu freeze and the usa, so at the same time, because of this national welfare fund, there is still a certain margin of safety when you can afford to gradually devalue the ruble, so there won’t be a wave, it definitely won’t happen, it can only happen when the fund runs out of national welfare, but in a year or so, if everything goes like this, even the national selection fund will run out, the money from this fund is simply thrown into the economy . how does it

work ? but we can do it ourselves to allow us international e-e, our partners give 30-40 billion each, so we have a surplus of currency , it goes to the national bank, that e-e sells currency at the interbank, buys back the hryvnia surplus , and therefore we even have e-e hryvnia, if it is released now, it will be untied from the fixed vaccine, it even got stronger because we have a surplus of currency, they have the opposite situation . all investors want to first snatch this currency and run somewhere . they are not allowed to do this as much as possible. business, so there is a special commission that considers applications for 3-4-9 months in order to give permission to a foreigner to withdraw their business and withdraw currency, so crazy draconian rules, new investors will definitely not come to them, everyone who can, they withdraw currency

and through it consists of a deficit of currency, i.e. rubles at the interbank, there are much more than currencies, and accordingly, the currency that is in some cubes was in gold and foreign reserves, now in the national welfare fund , they are thrown at interbanks, accordingly, those who need it are bought by importers all those who want to escape, the banks are big and so on, so all this is brewing at this interbank and these reserves are gradually being lost because of this , a decision was made, the only possible thing is to gradually devalue the ruble, and plus they also print it and that's it even if it is a gradual devaluation, the citizens will still notice it, they are not completely stupid . they do not understand that if in two months there it has already become 100 from 80, it will also lead to panic for people, they

take their deposits, they take their savings in rubles are trying to be exchanged for any currency , at least for something euro, dollar, even yuan, deposits in yuan there have also increased, that is, the currency is lost. medicine, education, transfers to different regions, so everything that used to be there and they fattened up there is now being reduced, and the citizens also feel it , so far it has not affected military expenditures, but everything is close. well, they are ordinary russians to what extent do they feel this gradually due to the decrease in the power of the russian economy, in addition to the fact that they see that the dollar is more expensive , but most russians have never traveled anywhere, they do not need dollars. and inflation and everyday problems of russians are due to these economic factors, due to this economic recession, when

will it be felt, at what point well, they already feel, in fact, how we felt at the beginning of the war, for the first time in a year we had crazy inflation , give it more than 20%, they are starting to feel it only now, they have enough reserves for that to hold out for the first year and a half, and if, on the contrary, we managed to curb inflation now, then they will now feel what we felt a year and a half ago, and their national bank usually draws some numbers like that and their inflation forecast is within the range of 5-6%, but they revise their forecast every month, if at the beginning of the year it was calculated to be two or three percent, then they revised it to 3-4 , now they are drawing 5-6 and these are only official figures, so inflation is based on the results of the year if everything continues to develop as it is now will exceed 10-15 percent there, and in the household sector , food products, that it can be

about 20%. so this is a tangible change for russians who receive the same salaries there in rubles that everything they buy every day has become more expensive by 20%. of course, this is not enough for the revolution there for the maidans but it is already good for the beginning for dissatisfaction to increase some dissatisfied money in russia remains to finance the army of defense orders of internal e-e they have enough for now for now we can do in order to let's say so to slightly increase the effect of these drugs, yes, again, this needle from this is hidden in oil and gas revenues. and here is the third graph, i wanted to show this decrease in the income of the russian federation to

the budget, specifically for petroleum products, etc. as you can see. on the graph, this is the third graph, and it is also decreasing radically, this is the biggest one was the european union in blue, it is almost a trickle, but it almost helps a little, and the sales graph is not of oil, but purely of already produced fuel, gasoline diesel is already petroleum products, and as we can see, it has also decreased there by one and a half times and will continue to decrease, so what can be done, as you rightly noticed the ceiling now because of the fact that this opec cartel played so well that the price of oil naturally started to increase to grow, yes, they are watching tv, because that’s the way it is. plus, you focused on another factor, the price of russian oil, which correlates

a little. yes, with this brand, it began to break through the ceilings, why is this happening because, first of all , this fleet is secret e by which they transport yes without e with turned off transponders and po in addition, there are certain companies that directly in belarus, using insurance not from lloyd's and not from western companies. and we are terrible - terrible insurance companies in russia, india , several african countries, they transport this oil even higher than the price there, for example, for 65 and - they are allowed through the desks because they officially have insurance, the first thing that can be done is to cement this $60 ceiling, and $100 for petroleum products so that it does not leak , this is to impose a second sanction on all those who

help russia bypass this ceiling i.e to sanction these insurance companies that help these owners in these courts, well, that is, all those who have and financial e-e institutions that help to do this and when this ceiling is reached, it can be done quickly enough and in the last package of sanctions, europe has already targeted exactly this on tanks somewhere excluded transponders and so on, so this ceiling must be cemented and then it will have to be lowered, so gradually there from $60 to $50, then to $40. and 40, according to the calculations of international experts, is already close to the cost price, that is, remove the income it is possible in one way if we sum up at the end of this year, in four months we will be able to see a qualitative qualitative change in the internal economy of russia so that all ukrainians understand that the sanctions are effective and we see that russia is getting worse every month, we will be able to see this by external signs and

external signs - this is precisely the ruble exchange rate and the inflation rate, deep processes, first of all, they hide them, they hid most of the information there, and they have now closed their statistics. they are trying to hide everything that is important, so even we who usually analyzes it, we see less and less information and we can only calculate it by some indirect method, so we are watching two factors, this is the ruble rate and inflation, the more it will be, the more it will spin up, the better , yes, we understand that they are even more they printed rubles, they weakened their ruble even more, and the poorer the citizens live, this whole spiral must be untwisted, and the more they will be forced the further, yes, we can follow more, the prices for that are published on various sites gas and volumes of supply. the less they will be, the more we also understand that

the more they should reduce their expenses, e.e. expenses, expenses not only on education and medicine, but they should also reduce expenses and military and military expenses, yes, these three indicators are being monitored i think that at the end of the year there will be good news, it's good that god sent a little impoverishment to our overbearing neighbors and we will see all these consequences. you will be very interested in the conversation, but hetman economist maria vasilievna is in

khrompilsk. night watch. see you in ethereal friends, chevrons approaching victory without weapons in their hands, but with brave hearts, they are brave to go through the flames and smoke to save the injured , brave to go out on mined lands so that the light in our homes is restored, brave not to make a mistake when there is no right to make a mistake, because it depends on it destinies of millions, brave to give hope and faith that everyone who is waiting for help will not remain in trouble where a person experiences the most terrible moments, heroes without weapons , rescuers of the state emergency service are approaching victory and

fighting for every life. tell me honestly how anxiety does not allow you to do things then imagine her as a drawing in a book and the book just lies on your lap now i will close her deposits and come back to us to find out other ways to improve your condition go to the website how are you.com moscow today woke up to real explosions as a result of the new loud cotton and even more powerful information because the provision of american fighter jets to ukraine is already a resolved issue on august 18 on the calendar and the results of friday 541 days of war further in the united

marathon and here are a few topics of this tsn broadcast and not yet in the armed forces, but it is getting closer when the f16 will arrive in ukraine and why did the united states suddenly decide on this landmark decision to transfer american fighter jets, oversight or evil intent in its productions. here is how the aggressor country sorbs military goods and when this will be put to an end and the hammer, why are the tastes of moscow priests and ukrainian communists as similar as two drops of cahors and why it is difficult to call them modest exclusive tsn footage from the residence of party and church leaders so whose decision we were all waiting for the united states supports the provision of f-16 fighter jets to ukraine after pilot training, this information was officially confirmed in the white house, the us president's national security adviser

ivan stated that washington would approve the transfer of aircraft to kyiv after the training of ukrainian pilots, and the existence of a letter from secretary of state blinka was confirmed in the white house. to colleagues in denmark and the netherlands, in which, as previously reported by the media, washington approved the transfer of f16 to ukraine by copenhagen and amsterdam, the training of ukrainian pilots on these fighters had to begin this month, all the details of the historic decision will be told by the correspondent of tsn in the united states, olga koshelenko, in a few minutes, cotton in the center of moscow , a fire in one of the largest ports of russia , a blue-yellow flag flying next to the fsb building, the night before friday turned out to be quite tense for the russian regime tsn correspondent yana slyusarchuk will tell you more about it. on the fourth morning, construction workers on a roof in the center of moscow find out where the drone is flying in

three weeks. this is the third one that has reached inside the skyscraper called moscow city, offices, among others, and several ministries, are gradually getting used to such night salutes in the center of the russian capital. from defense andriy kartapolov said that drones are attacking moscow city because it is easier to hit it because it is high and advised his compatriots not to be surprised it's scary to drive. i wish it would have ended in a few hours. the office workers had to leave for work from the moscow-network building. everyone was evacuated due to a phone call about the approach of a new drone to the skyscraper. they even drove fire trucks until they realized that nothing was happening. the new one is not flying yet, and whoever called was just

mocking. and this is tor govelno-siyska, who started for an unknown reason, the fire quickly covers 1300 m², wooden pallets in the cargo terminal from which the fire started overturned on fuel tanks, extinguishing takes several hours novorossiysk is one of the largest ports in russia , the military base of the black sea fleet is located there , today it became known that kazakhstan may refuse to export oil from novorossiysk by redirecting its cargo to the port of ust-luga on the baltic sea with data fsb oksan lyshnyi novgorod, a blue-yellow flag appeared next to the local fsb, witnesses say that in the evening they noticed a package on the wires to remove the flag for the colors of which in russia they are put behind bars, they immediately called the police, i don't meeting tsn one plus one marathon the only news and here is another spectacular arrival in