[000:00:00;00] these are not security guarantees and it can be some kind of security guarantees for japan or for south korea and it can be a combination of these two approaches of the first video attack can be membership in nato and i believe that there is no alternative in principle to membership in nato as far as we are concerned this was not said, moreover, i believe and i say this to our western friends that a successful process of joining the eu is actually impossible without joining nato, and here we don't need to be tied to summits. since we are raising our expectations there, we are looking at vilnius, now we are looking at washington, it's not about the summit , it's about the west eventually not just understanding that ukraine is no longer part of the gray reality, and ukraine, uh, officially, from

the point of view of understanding the security and political , should stop being part of the gray reality . this will change the fundamental geopolitics - this will change the schedules for the event. and when you change reality, you cannot, uh, not take into account the risks, and the event, unfortunately, is currently justifying these risks as if it were the scales of an arresting scale, in the end, something so important must be thrown away ours, as i believe, is precisely our western parts of these scales, that russia soared somewhere very, very far and then fell somewhere, but the west wants a controlled reboot of russia and the dialogue, we are not able to change it so far with our understanding, and this is the main issue of conceptual discussions in the near future only on the near future, well, obviously, this

near future will affect not only ukraine, because it is clear that with the war of russia against ukraine, the entire security architecture in the world and in europe is changing and must change serhiy, the bad historian, calls ukraine the eastern gate of europe, and in principle, the definition of ukraine and the status of ukraine in the world is correct. and we also understand that the fate of europe will depend on how the war in ukraine ends, not to mention political punishment . years of many politicians, because one way or another , the future of the world will depend on what is happening on the eastern and southern fronts and what is happening in ukraine in general , and here, without exaggeration , at the same time, we see that all these

institutions, which in one way or another functioned before russia's great invasion against ukraine is not in a position to digest the situation at the moment. it is not in a position to give any correct conclusion or correct prescription of how the entire security system in europe , the security system in the world, the system that is under the wing of the united nations organization, we see that all all these institutions, as they say in galicia, they are stuck , that is, they still cannot give any correct recipe. and what to do? and what should the un do if it cannot stop the war or cannot influence russia, which is a member of the un security council and constantly talks about security, peace, against some of its interests , about the charter, the charter, the organization of the united nations, well, that is, the world has faced a challenge, this is called putin's regime, and something says

that we are not ready to change regime or influence the change of putin's regime. how can the modern world be adapted without changing putin's regime, including ukraine , which is subject to the rules imposed by putin. in what way can the world be changed and the situation in europe and the world be changed without displacing putin? mr. serhiy, the answer is very simple and you know it as well as i do, accept ukraine, donate to the ds, make us part of the western world, make us examples of elements of dynamics for the western world so that the west finds its own meaning and actually its own meaning in this the world in the 21st century and when the west is not ready to quickly reboot putin's regime

, let him reboot space and independence itself, and today is the holiday of independence. i once again congratulate all friends with this. i congratulate independence , it is the independence of reproduction. to pay attention to russia in what concerns our future, our security, our well-being, and our security is nato, our well-being is the european so, this is when the west makes a decision that we are part of this world, this is the recognition by the west that ukraine is no longer conditionally independent as it likes this is what putin and a russian native say, and she is independent, she is independent, as part of the event, and we will also review our constitution, we definitely cannot live with this constitution after the war, but when we join

nato and the eu, you understand perfectly well that we we will not share a part of our sovereignty, but we will show where the european union works for that and where it is exclusively part of our competence. and this is what we have to understand that what is part of our understanding of independence. what we paid for and are paying the price for can only be shared with friends who share common values ​​with us, so the answer is simple. ukraine is part of the eu, nato, and this will gradually reset all other security models, at least around europe and eurasia . you, as the minister of foreign affairs, are witnesses of these tectonic changes. you know exactly what the mood was like in europe and the world. eight

years ago or 9 years ago, when the great war between russia and ukraine began , how much the world has changed during that time. you can talk there about the weapons provided by the west, but to what extent they have mentally changed and how much their understanding of that , it appeared that ukraine is not russia , leonid danylovych kuchma once wrote, did he mean something else? i still think but about our own we today we will not celebrate independence day. i think that the world has changed a lot. i think that it is in the process of understanding that in the 21st century it is not possible to live according to the model of the 20th century . technologies are changing, people are changing , relations between people are changing, and it is at the stage of change that we

show what our metal is like used to be mocked because we have betrayal, victory, er, good and evil, and everyone said, well, you are not capable of tolerance, compromise, and now everyone understood that in the end, in this world , you need to set aside for yourself and for many even my western friends who were fans and supporters of ukraine for many years, our real history began in the 14th year, and it is not about the fact that we are underestimated, it is about what they say, you started to fight for real unconditional independence, which they put into their heads and putin are all in moscow, uh, really, there were some moments where you hesitated somewhere, you tried to move on. it was a very difficult process, and we respect it, but at some point, uh, it became important for

ukraine, and then it became important for the west , for the west, which understood what it should happen part of it will not be a simple process , it will not be a simple process and within the framework of the event since we have to keep a person's sympathy, emotion, perspective, it will not be a simple process in the world, but it is 100% clear that the world will definitely not be the same as it was before 14 thank you he was 22 we have to finish thank you excuse me for the schedule happy independence day once again to you mr. pavlo this was pavlo klimkin this was the program verdict conducted by serhiy rudenko i wish everyone good health take care of yourself and your loved ones goodbye while playing sports the body loses water and

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invitation experts soberly assess the events, analyze them by modeling our near future that saturdays at 1:00 p.m. with a repeat at 10:00 p.m. studio event with by anton borkovsky naispresso i congratulate you this is freedom life on radio freedom we have already come to the very change the following frames may shock you news from the scene of events live kamikaze drone attacks political analysis objectively and meaningfully there is no political season exclusive interviews reports from the hottest points of the front freedom frankly and impartially to draw conclusions yourself vasyl winter's big broadcast two hours of air time two hours of your time two

hours to learn about the war and what the world is like 2 hours to stay up to date with economic news and new sports for two hours in the company of favorite presenters, presenters who have become familiar to many, as well as distinguished guests of the studio, events of the day in two hours, vasyl's big broadcast in winter , a project for smart and caring people in the evening nayspresso welcome to the espresso channel. today in our military program we will talk about the main topic of our offensive and also about what the format of a war of attrition means for ukraine and our partners, as well as for the enemy of russia . in western comments, the narrative that the offensive of the armed forces in the south

is turning to disappointment, they say they gave so many weapons and not enough progress, so the joy is such , concentrate efforts in one point, children are more active in the direction of melitopol and less think about losses, but in such situations it is important to pay attention not to politicians or unnamed officials of the pentagon or the white house, but to specific practitioners with experience and in contrast to these but army publications , yesterday in the same washington post published an article by general petrius called the ukrainian counteroffensive may surprise petra's critics, this is the former commander of the collection forces in afghanistan and the former head of the cia and probably one of the most famous and respected american military personnel and he talks about several important

although it seems obvious to me that the first thing is that the war is not linear, it does not go according to desire or plan, and therefore prematurely this excessive pessimism due to the seemingly slow advance of the ukrainians is absolutely inappropriate. because the ukrainian operation has been going on for 10 weeks, but according to petre os' assumption, it will last at least another four months, and the third thing is that he says that ukrainian actions in the south are carried out according to the principle of exhausting, stretching and beating the enemy along the entire front line, and these approaches they look quite logical and effective where the ensigns actually are, but we will talk about the advice later, and i will also say that the ukrainian commanders claim that the time for their contrast has not yet passed, and the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, general valeriy zaluzhny, another powerful american publication refers to him, reported to us officials that its troops

are on the verge of a breakthrough. so , we will discuss these different points of view on the current frontline reality with our leading experts and military specialists in the next issue of our military program, my name is serhiy zhoretskyi, the director of the information consulting company defekt express, which, together with press channels, strives to highlight current trends in the field of security and defense, and now mykhailo samus is joining us, he is the head of the international analytical organization nu, a geopolitician, sirisochnik, and also the deputy of the army conversion research center and disarmament , mr. mykhailo, glad to see and hear you on the air espresso channels, ana sergey, i congratulate you, i am very glad to see you. so, i drew the general picture which was related to different visions and assessments of what is happening on the battlefield and i would like you to give your own angle

of what is happening and what are the current and potential dynamics on the contact line , the athlete did not hear your question, i would like you to assess what is happening on the front line and give your own assessment of these current and potential dynamics that can affect the situation on the front line, what is happening precisely from your assessments well, it is actually really strange to read assessments in the western press that it is necessary to focus, for example, on one area or hit at one point, well, that is, uh. of course, people who write such articles have never studied operational art , strategy, tactics, and so on. you can't hit at any point, because really, war is not a linear

process, war is especially modern - this is uh- e multidimensional e-e these are multidimensional processes that move, of course, not according to linear laws , and when we talk about carrying out various operations that form, prepare a further breakthrough or further decisive operations , all this is interconnected. territories or which settlements are vacated, all this is much more complicated, and if you look at the front in general, which stretches for many, many hundreds of kilometers between russia and ukraine, then i concluded for myself that russia has actually fallen into its own trap , this trap is called the predominance of military-political and propaganda goals over the actual military military-statistical

goals of this operation and when the russians, for example , created their own mythology around bakhmut , believing that it is and is such a center gravity is the center of gravity of the ukrainian defense, if, for example, bakhmut falls, then the ukrainian defense will collapse. the mythology itself is actually being created around kupyansk and around this area, that is, they initially declared that they are now breaking through the defenses, and near kupyansk they are now creating conditions when the ukrainian defense crumbles, the ukrainian command will be forced to withdraw reserves from the south and from the same bakhmut direction, and in this way russia will seize

the initiative and start an operation again in the kharkiv region to seize kharkiv itself and create a new group that will threaten kramatorsk and slavyansk and at the same time stop the possibilities altogether will stop any opportunities for the ukrainian offensive in the eastern direction , in the bakhmut direction and in the southern direction, including the kherson region should follow, that is, they continue despite the fact that the ukrainian forces are creating enormous tension in several directions in the south and under bahmut they continue to burn their reserves in the direction of kupyan, they send more and more forces there, still trying to implement the the idea that they made public in fact and in which they joined in order to implement it , but we see that it leads to the fact that they cannot create a sufficient supply

of reserves in the south now there if for example, in the tokmak direction, they feel a real real deficit and a real i wouldn't say panic, but a commotion , which means that they really don't know how they will stop the ukrainian invasion , the same thing is happening in the berdyan direction , although there is a situation there, i would say it is more transparent for the russians, but the two directions in the south are very, very tense for the russians, the bakhmut direction, as well as ukrainian troops are moving forward, we know that on the left bank of the kherson region, ukrainians are ukrainians special operations forces gourmo conducts a raid operation and the implementation of measures to expand the gray zone on the coast, thus depriving the russians of the opportunity to control the situation there and obviously preparing for larger-scale, more active actions. that is

, it turns out that the russians have created their paradigm e-e propaganda and political which they now demand to were followed by the military and in this way again fall into the same trap as those they fell into under the bahmut, i.e. investing huge reserves now in kupyansk and again under the bahmut they are losing the opportunity to stop the ukrainian offensive in the south. i think that the ukrainian troops have really already created the conditions or are very close to the start of a more active movement in the south, but i do not think that this is a sufficient goal. the defeat of the enemy and now it is being achieved in several directions , including the kupyan direction, where the russians are spending huge resources without any prospects of achieving the results

that they are trying to force the ukrainian command to stop the offensive in the south and move the reserves to the kharkiv direction. mykhailo, this is about the fact that the russians actually created their own paradigm and became hostages of this paradigm, now they are throwing resources in different directions without being able to react quickly to the actions of the ukrainian army. but then it turns out that a certain information paradigm is being created by american and european experts in journalism who are trying to form three further scenarios there , e. there, the two countries have reached an impasse, they have already reached it, and there is a need to put pressure on russia , force ukraine to negotiate with the friend there, the version is that the mother has it better, let's wait for the results of the ukrainian counteroffensive and then, based on this reality, we will form our own policy in the relations of the visa of ukraine with the russian federation. well , the third option is that it can be said that regardless of what the pace

of the ukrainian offensive will be, what the results will be , the war will be long and we need for the europeans and the americans to prepare for a long war, to prepare a defense system and, er, to prepare to help ukraine, there is still a certain long time to victory from these three directions of movement . what do you think will dominate in the near future in order to understand how our partners will conduct themselves er giving us advice or help , it’s interesting, again, it seems to me that the russians want, through various tools, hybrid pressure, e-e , propaganda a-a and other e-e areas of activity, including our western ones partners to sell the idea that russia has unlimited resources , that is, no matter how much ukraine fights , no matter how much our western partners help ukraine, the russians still have more resources, that is, they can

spread such information there, they are currently mobilizing 5 million servicemen and that you will do everything equally ukraine will lose , therefore there is no point in continuing this war , let's freeze it, that is, i have the impression that they want now uh blackmailing the west is such a big long war in which there is no chance at all in ukraine to win, and they are still inclined to start negotiations about what frost, that is , the minsk-3 freeze. of course, it will be about unblocking russian financial resources abroad, there were none no talks about any compensation for damage to ukraine, of course, to remove the issue of punishment of war criminals, etc., they lifted sanctions, etc. and against this background, russia can propose that they stop

some active phase of hostilities, etc. in a way, it seems that the west is freed from such a heavy burden of aid to ukraine, that is, such work is obviously being carried out, judging by what publications appear, what opinions are expressed, including unconscious analysts , that is, these topics are currently being discussed, but this topic is not new, it is the russians, in fact, the topic of freezing began to advance the conflict immediately after they realized that on february 24, 2022, a catastrophic mistake was made that led to extremely tragic consequences for the putin regime, that is, they they are trying to advance it somewhere uh parallely adapting to the situation somewhere bypassing the sanctions but they understand that in any case the situation will not improve for russia but will worsen and in this regard i would immediately like to say that it is absolutely not true that russia has unlimited resources in russia, the resource is very limited, especially if we talk about

the same heavy equipment, technology, especially high technology, machine tools, and so on, that is, the sensational mode is extremely important here, so they can really restore a certain part of the heavy armored vehicle technicians, they can buy a certain part, for example, e-e drones or take technologies for the production of the same shaheds, but if you look at the global e-e reserve, they don’t have that much, so they can’t mobilize 5 million people, because then the russian economy will collapse i understand that the putin regime is in principle okay with what will happen to the russian economy, but on the other hand, they have to maintain some kind of balance, so it is very important for our western partners to understand that resources in russia are limited the sanctions regime is extremely important, and this war has its own time frames, and these time frames exclusively depend, among other things, on

the scale of aid to ukraine, that is, if , for example, we were handed an f16 a year ago, then i think that even now we would be talking about completely different events on the conversation was not about linear forecasts of any kind, but about the conduct of the military to me, as they say, uh , that is, an all-out war using all possible spaces, including air space, unfortunately, now russia is in the air space dominates and these are problems, including specific offensive actions and offensive operations. by the way, your conclusion completely coincides with the recommendations given by general petraeus in this article, because he also says that much earlier it was necessary to transfer aviation to ukraine pull with the transfer of rocket launchers and much more ensure the transfer of ammunition to that and we, as we began to ask for cluster ammunition, he says this and as field practice, because i think that

these tips are really worth listening to what is interesting about petre's publication is that it does not explain to us what is happening there on the southern front, but it is precisely focused on american and european politicians so that they do not wring their hands and prepare for really such a normal , correct job of accepting what is happening in ukraine. i really hope that there are more and more such publications, i think that actually the ukrainian community should still work more with our european media so that we shape the agenda and not react to those publications that appear of foreign media so absolutely, but of course there is also our ukrainian choice and our ukrainian dimension, it consists in the fact that we really have to prepare for a war of attrition, and again, a war of attrition does not mean that it will last 15 years how some prognosticators say that considering putin's age