[000:00:00;00] i also drew a general picture that was related to different visions and assessments of what is happening on the battlefield and i would like you to give your own angle of what is happening and what are the current and potential dynamics on the line of contact by the athlete panaseri some were communication problems, i didn't hear you, i don't feel your question , i would like you to evaluate what is happening on the front line and give your own assessment of the current and potential dynamics that can affect the situation on the front line, what is happening precisely from your of evaluations well, actually, it's really strange to read evaluations in the western press that you need to focus , for example, on one area or to hit one

point, well, that is, of course, people who write such articles they have never studied operational art, er, strategy, tactics and you can't hit any other point because war really isn't a linear process, war is especially modern - it's multidimensional , it's multidimensional processes that move, of course , not according to linear laws, and when we talk about conducting various operations that are forming, are preparing a further breakthrough or further decisive operations, all this is interconnected and of course, you cannot evaluate the pace of advancement only by how much territory or which settlements are liberated, all this is much more complicated, and if you look in general at the e-e front, which stretches for many, many hundreds of kilometers between russia and ukraine, so i came to the conclusion for myself that

russia actually fell into its own trap , this trap is called the predominance of military political and propaganda goals over actual military military-strategic goals the goals of this operation, and when the russians, for example, created their own mythology around bakhmut, believing that it is such a center of gravity, the center of gravity of the ukrainian defense, if, for example , bakhmut falls, the ukrainian defense will collapse, they invested uh precisely in operation a-a for the occupation of bakhmut well, huge resources, including the wagnerites, who actually destroyed under the same bahmut and the same mythology, in fact , it is now being created around kupyansk and around this area, that is, they initially

declared that they are now breaking through the defenses and near kupyansk, they are now creating conditions when the ukrainian defense crumbles, the ukrainian command will be forced to withdraw reserves from the south and from the same bakhmut direction, and in this way russia will seize the initiative and start an operation again in the kharkiv region to capture kharkiv itself and the creation of a new group that will threaten kramatorsk and slavyansk and at the same time will end all possibilities for a ukrainian offensive in the eastern direction , in the bakhmut direction and in the southern direction, including the kherson region, when they got there, that is, they created a propagandist-propagandist reality and which they now have to follow, that is, they continue despite the fact that the ukrainian forces are creating enormous tension in several directions in the south, and they continue to er-e burn their reserves in heaps in the jan direction, they are sending new and new

forces there, still trying to implement the idea that they actually made public and in which they joined in order to implement it, but we see that it leads to the point that they can't create enough reserves in the south now there if you take the tokmak direction for example , they feel a real real deficit and a real i wouldn't say panic but a commotion which means that they really don't know how they ukrainians will stop the attack. this is exactly what is happening in the berdyan direction, although the situation there, i would say, is more transparent for the russians, but the two directions in the south are very, very tense for the russians. the bakhmut direction is also on the way. forward, we know that on the left bank of the kherson region, the ukrainian e-e ukrainian special operations forces are carrying out

a raid operation and the implementation of measures to expand the gray zone on the coast , thus depriving the russians of the opportunity to control the situation there and obviously preparing for larger-scale, more active actions. that is it turns out that the russians have created their own propaganda and political paradigm, which they now require the military to follow, and thus fall into the same trap again that in which they got under the bahmut, i.e. investing huge reserves now uh-e in kupyansk and again under the bahmut, they lose the opportunity to stop the ukrainian offensive in the south. i think that the ukrainian troops have really already created the conditions or are very close to it starting a more active movement in the south, but i do not think that this is a sufficient goal, after all, a self-sufficient goal is to inflict a strategic defeat on the enemy, and

now it is being achieved in several directions , including the kupyan direction, where the russians are spending huge resources without any prospects of achieving the results they want. they are trying, that is, to force the ukrainian command to stop the offensive in the south and to move the reserves of e-e to the kharkiv direction. mikhailov says that the russians actually created their own paradigm and became hostages of this paradigm, now they are throwing resources at various directions, not having the opportunity to respond quickly to the actions of the ukrainian army. but then it turns out that a certain information paradigm is being created by american and european experts journalists who are trying to form three further scenarios there, uh, evaluations, well, the future of actions, the first scenario there - in particular , there two countries have reached a dead end, they have already reached it , and it is necessary to uh, pressure russia , force ukraine to negotiate with the other there version is what i prefer is that we wait

for the results of the ukrainian counteroffensive and then, based on this reality, we will form our own policy regarding ukraine's visa relations with the russian federation. well , the third option is that it is possible saying regardless of what the pace of the ukrainian offensive will be, what the results will be, all the same, the war will be long, and we europeans, americans, need to prepare for a long war, prepare a defense system and prepare to help ukraine, there is still a certain long time to victory from these three directions of movement . what do you think it will be to dominate in the near future in order to understand how our partners will conduct themselves by giving us advice or help, here it is interesting , again, it seems to me that the russians want through various tools, hybrid pressure, propaganda, and other areas

of activity , including our western partners, to sell the idea that russia has unlimited resources, that is, no matter how much ukraine fights, no matter how much our western partners helped ukraine, all the same, the russians have more resources, well, that is, they can spread such information there, they are now , uh, mobilizing 5 million military personnel and what are you going to do, all the same, ukraine will lose , and therefore there is no point in continuing this war let's freeze, that is, i have the impression that they want to blackmail the west into such a big, long war in which ukraine has no chance of winning at all, and they are still pushing them to start negotiations about what kind of frost, that is , a freeze, minsk-3 of course, it will be about unblocking russian

financial resources abroad , there was no talk of any compensation for the damage to ukraine, of course. remove the issue of punishing war criminals. sanctions and so on. and on the background of this, russia can propose that they stop some active phase of hostilities, and in this way, they seem to free the west from the heavy , heavy burden of aid in ukraine , that is, such work is obviously being carried out , judging by the publications from what opinions are expressed, including unconscious analysts, that is, these topics are currently being discussed , but this topic is not new, the russians actually started promoting the topic of freezing the conflict immediately after they realized that february 24, 2022 was a catastrophic mistake was made that led to extremely tragic consequences for putin's regime, i.e. they are trying to push it forward somewhere uh parallely adapting to the situation somewhere bypassing sanctions but they

understand that in any case the situation will not improve for russia but will worsen in this regard as well i would like to say right away that it is absolutely not true that in russia there is an unlimited resource, in russia the resource is very limited, especially if we are talking about the same heavy equipment, technology, especially high technology, machine tools and so on, that is, sensational the regime here is extremely important, yes, they can really restore a certain part of heavy armored vehicles, they can buy a certain part, for example, drones or take technologies for the production of the same shaheds, but if you look globally , they have re-re-reserves not so much. so they can't mobilize 5 million people, because then the russian economy will collapse. i understand that the putin regime, in principle, everything is exactly the same as what will happen to the russian economy, but on the other

hand, they have to keep some kind of balance for it is very important for our western partners to understand that resources in russia are limited, the sanctions regime is extremely important, and this war has its own time frames, and these time frames exclusively depend on the scale of aid to ukraine, that is, if , for example, we were handed an f16 a year ago, then i think that and now we would be talking about completely different events on the front and we would have a conversation not about linear forecasts of any kind , but after all about the introduction of mamalti to property, as they say space, unfortunately, now russia dominates the airspace, and these are problems , including specific offensive actions offensive operations. by the way, your conclusion completely coincides with the recommendations given by general petraeus in this article, because he also says that

much earlier, it was necessary to hand over aviation to ukraine, not to drag the transfer of takams missiles and much more to ensure the transfer of ammunition before that . and how did we start asking for cluster munitions? this publication by petri is really worth listening to, and what is interesting about it is that it does not explain to us what is happening there on the southern front , but it is precisely focused on american and european politicians so that they do not wring their hands and prepare for really such a normal, correct job of accepting what is happening in i really hope for ukraine that there will be more and more such publications, and i think that the ukrainian community should still work more with our european media there so that we shape the agenda and not react to those the publications that appear in the foreign mass media are so absolutely, but of course there is also our ukrainian choice and our ukrainian dimension is that we really have

to prepare for a war of attrition, and again, a war of attrition does not mean that it will be 15 years to go. as some prognosticators say, considering the age of putin , who can really live to be 15, it seems to me that with the doppelgangers he has, it is possible to create some kind of digital clone in russia, and it will be accepted as absolutely normal. -e this mode there can be as many as these. the population of this putin-inspired country will tolerate exactly such a situation . we have seen that there is already an obvious duplicate of the action, that is , the ukrainian context in this ukrainian content of this strategy should be that we really have to pay attention to the optimization of our processes that also take place in the state. i am talking, for example, about the system of planning the development of the defense-industrial

complex based on the needs of the armed forces of ukraine. if it did not sound banal, but on at the moment, this system still does not work, that is, i mean, again, the incomprehensible situation with the ministry of static industry, er, the very active role of the ministry of digital transformation, for which we can only simply thank the minister of digital transformation personally, fedorov, and those people who support and all citizens of ukraine and not only ukraine who help to donate to the projects of the army drones e-e 10,000 e-e fp-v drones were recently financed precisely at the expense of nato contributions, but this is not enough to talk about a war of attrition in the state system should work here, it's great that the ministry of digital transformation got involved, it's great that people support us and we have a lot of volunteer initiatives, the program all this

helps the army but there should still be a state system, there should be a clear understanding of the needs of the armed forces, for example if we need a specific type of drone or with certain characteristics, then in this situation there should be i don't know how to explain it, but there should probably be a state program that should be coordinated by the ministry of strategic industry to budget, and the executors can of course be private companies and foreign companies, but there must be the leader and driver of the process who in the state should be responsible for exactly these issues, for example, i cannot say clearly now who is responsible for such state programs, and it really is the problem if we talk about an intensive war and a war of attrition is not precisely in time, but in the fact that we have to break eh in certain directions of development, especially if we proceed from the fact that we symmetrically russia we will not

defeat this eh this is a known fact we have to act asymmetrically, and this asymmetrization needs clear coordination at the state level, because only private initiatives, citizens' initiatives , and so on, there should still not be enough of a system, it all sounds kind of banal, but after all , we have already been there for a year and a half war, and that is why i think that it is possible to find some kind of activity format that would help us to form exactly such a systemic paradigm of waging war, and not with a paradigmatic one, because, by the way, there is only one question for the minister of technology, because society it's a bit. let's put it this way, the disappointed part is really trying to find the maximum options to help our soldiers on the battlefield, and the rest distanced themselves from this, and i think that there is no such clear grouping at the moment regarding the fact that society , industry, politicians are really determined to conduct hostilities where everyone is

its optimal place. as for its power of possibilities, i am. you are ready to admit that this is not yet available. and this is actually a resource that has not yet been used, but is extremely necessary in order to withstand this russian in a rush, and a little returning to the military operations, did you mention the south, uh, is it really? right now, it is important to break through to the azov coast, or can it be considered that, in particular, the program can at least get out to the line there ? yanka er-e volnovakha to er-e ensure, first of all, by means of fire , the control of the land corridor that is currently used by the russian federation, or can it be, let’s say, quite a step in order to ensure that, in particular, there until the end

year to provide, well, at least fire control over the areas where the enemy is located well, in fact, it is difficult to say here which will be sufficient , of course, we are talking about where to buy all the territories. actions, first of all, i still think that it would be expedient to break up this single theater of military operations, which stretches all the way from the kharkiv region to the crimea, after all, to break it into several theaters of military operations, with which it is possible to work separately well, i mean that it would be nice to physically cut off the water theater of donbas and the theater of military operations in crimea because they are different theaters with different approaches, different let's say even formats of operations with different sets of forces and means and what is important here if you are already talking about why is this cutting of these theaters important? well, first of all, of course, the logistics are broken, the only lock from the operative on

the maintenance of these territories is broken. and what is also very important if we, after all, physically cut the logistics completely, the foreign corridor roughly speaking, if we are talking about melitopol and below and berdyansk already on the sea of ​​azov, then looking at the left coast of the kherson region, this very area is the most dangerous for the russians, in fact , because if there is a breakthrough now, the main line of defense in the tokmaya direction will go development to melitopol, then the conditions are created for more active operations to be carried out already on the left bank of the kherson region, and if active operations begin there , then the entire group that is currently located there i mean the left bank of the kherson region, they will be in such a global dead end, which will be very similar to the global dead end in which

the group of russian troops was located on the right bank of the kherson region, when they had no other way out or die , surrender or try to cross through the dnipro, such a situation will now be created, i hope precisely by this group, and if such a situation is created, then it can rain really south and the front creates conditions for an operation for the de-occupation of crimea and the conditions for the de-occupation of donbas will be created separately. if we just stop now at tokmak, it will not solve any of these problems, and in principle , fire control will be improved conditions, after all, for the destruction of the enemy in some directions but there will be no change in radical, which will be able to change the conditions of conducting hostilities for the ukrainian armed forces in this way, that is, what i described would be

appropriate to start such operations directly for the deoccupation of donbass and crimea because that the south is the region. for now, it is just that obstacle, although it is a huge obstacle to look at the map, in fact, it is a huge obstacle in order to start concretely already the dreamed deoccupation of crimea and donbass. to get by with these operations , it will be necessary to have complete dominance in the air , mr. mykhailo. thank you very much for your professional comments, of course, there are more questions for you, but unfortunately, unfortunately, time is running out. from presobu mykhailo samus is the head of the ancient organization nu geopolitik s aristoch netvok and then we will talk about what war

of attrition is with our next guest . i know that poltava has become a home for tens of thousands of immigrants and for me a second hometown where the best years of my career were spent. we thank the armed forces of ukraine for the opportunity to play football. tablets l-cet 5% in pharmacies podorozhnyk you and save money buy medicine on the site pryzhnyk.com save time and money join the community with a ukrainian view of the world become

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today, volodymyr hryshko, if everything goes well the events of the day in two hours, a big broadcast of vasyl zimi, a project for the intelligent and those who care, in the evening, we continue our military program, and now we are joined by oleksandr los, the former head of the antonov concern, a doctor of technical sciences, and now a captain of the defense forces of ukraine, who take care of the promising directions of the development of the armed forces, the position we do not we call from the side , we call you oleksandr, i congratulate you, i am glad to see and hear the palm, dear serhiyevich, i sincerely congratulate you, glory to ukraine, glory to the heroes, right in front of you, mykhailo and i spoke for a long time about the fact that we will determine the prospects for action on the battlefield, and in particular, they talked about the thesis that a war of attrition is actually starting, according to your estimates, if we are talking about a war of attrition, what does this mean for ukraine and our partners and for the russian federation, who has resources how would you rate the resilience

of both sides to wage this war of attrition? i think that it will not open any america comparing the resources of the great resource-oriented country of the russian federation in the human factor and even in the pure metal of payment became, as it used to be customary in the ussr to compare and accordingly, ukraine, then of course, only the resources of ukraine will not be enough for a war of attrition, because what distinguishes our situation from the beginning of the 20th century is that ukraine finally has very significant foreign support from the civilized countries of the european countries of the united states america, which provides insufficient resources in ukraine, and we recognize that today it is ukrainian people, ukrainian soldiers, and mostly foreign military

equipment that is fighting ukraine today, and if we look at the financial provision is almost 70 to 30, that is, 70% of the financial income comes to us precisely for waging this war of attrition from foreign partners, the picture is approximately like this . and now, in your position, you are studying in detail the experience and enemy equipment used against ukraine and the actions of our units, the actions of our units with new weapons and existing weapons, and i would like to ask you what your feelings are now, what trends are forming now, what will be selected from what is there, and what new things will dominate the battlefield and what do we have now to pay attention by forming eyes let's say this way views into the future creating possible asymmetric answers to those advantages that are so far well, the same russian federation, which exceeds us quantitatively and possibly in certain types of weapons, well, i will start my answer

to your question with a successful example of the ukrainian mosquito fleet of the so-called that is , small unmanned underwater surface combat unmanned aerial vehicles that work against huge classic frigate cruisers and the like by the russian federation, that is , this is just the highlight and this is a symbol of that and that technology that is born on the battlefield, artillery will not go anywhere, because today's war is 90% , unfortunately, it is still his and the artillery once became called the god or goddess of war, and this saying has lived on and we recognize the fact that 90% belongs to the victory artillery rocket launchers and rockets for the troops, especially this you should also emphasize ah , but still, i want to emphasize, as it is inherent for me

, the fact that the emphasis is still shifting to military technologies , there is no mention of unmanned equipment, and i will emphasize once again about the replacement of the fighter on the battlefield or a combat vehicle , it is a matter of combining the technology of robotic equipment and human operator, human fighter, and of course what we are currently seeing, i already said , very accurate, here you will show this example of our , and not only our, naval strike drones and still, for the most part, the emphasis will shift to the air component and attack support of unmanned aerial vehicles , even starting from the tactical level and ending with strategic-class devices , currently what we see with you in the reports in mass media attacks on