[000:00:00;00] cultural and scientific heritage is on the scales of common history with the world and the majority does not want to do this, that is, there is a hiding with the idea of ​​a separate civilization of uniqueness and so on, and if we are a separate civilization, then of course, of course, anything that happens here is unique, it is not needs some kind of dialogue with the environment because it is excellent, it is different , and it is, it is, it is, it is a very serious, very serious problem, but changes have begun, and we have the opportunity to either support the changes or to isolate ourselves and not

support, which means abandoning it is written on portal in one way or another actually open the way for some interpretations that will not actually be completely different if we compare our experience with our ideas , that is, not the fighters . understand that we can enter any door that if we do not consider ourselves to be some kind of separate civilization that is constantly trying to invent a bicycle and that is what ukraine should be in europe in the future, what should be its place in europe? what do you think, ending our conversation? today, ukraine appeared in europe as if in the robes of a knight behind the scenes. i do not know

the defender of the borders of the european border . ukraine went to war with the russian army, which only firms liked in the 40th year and the poles, for various reasons, could not fight over more sides in the 68th year of the mess or did not even try to do it about hungary, it did not succeed, that is, such a large industrial large-scale war well, we arise as a warrior and this is love, it was not our choice, it was not the choice of ukraine and leave. in this way, we have already moved on from the issue of reaching the socio-economic

, civilizational, cultural level, and here for us even the biggest issue is not even democracy . although now big questions arise to what extent will we be able to survive the military experience and remain a democracy, i still remain an optimist here, but the question eh voted , that is, in fact, we will be able to be a people, a nation , ukraine, which will put the law higher than any other ethnic, social, economic and so on, the interests of certain groups. that is, it is a key issue, but it seems to me purely from a military point of view. that is, we chose

the local ones, we create and extend the border of europe further to the east , that is, from my point of view. cultural and legal integration under culture, first of all, i have a culture of law, this will historically be the most for us. thank you, mr. serhiu. once again i congratulate you on the holidays. viewers, our guest was the well-known ukrainian

american historian serhiy bad see you good luck i welcome you to the espresso channel today in our military program we will talk about the main topic of our offensive and also about what it means for ukraine and our partners as well as for the enemy of russia format war of attrition, because now , in my opinion, it is a somewhat strange period, because in western comments the narrative that the offensive of the armed forces in the south is revolving around disappointment is said to have been given so many weapons and not enough progress, so joy this is how you concentrate your efforts in one point, the children are more active in the direction of melitopol and think less about losses, but in such situations it is important to pay attention not to politicians or unnamed officials of the pentagon or the white house , but to specific practitioners with experience and in contrast to these but army publications yesterday in that the washington post published an article by general petrius called

the ukrainian counteroffensive, which may still surprise petra's critics. this is in the former commander of the collection forces, who is working in afghanistan and the former head of the cia, and is probably one of the the most famous and respected american military and he says about several important although it seems to me obvious things, firstly, that the war is not linear, it does not go according to desire or plan, and therefore prematurely, this excessive pessimism due to the seemingly slow advance of the ukrainians is absolutely inappropriate; secondly, what the general says that this is not the end of the ukrainian operation in zaporizhzhia, but its beginning, because the ukrainian operation has been going on for 10 weeks, but according to petre osa's assumption, it will last at least another four months, and the third thing is that he says

that the ukrainian actions in the south are being carried out the principle of exhausting, stretching and beating the enemy along the entire front line, and these approaches look quite logical and effective where the flags actually are, but we will talk about the advice later, and i will also say that the ukrainian commanders claim that the time for their contrast has not yet passed and the commander-in-chief armed forces general valery zaluzhnyi, another powerful american publication refers to him, told us officials that his troops are on the verge of a breakthrough. we will discuss with our leading experts and military specialists in the next issue of our military program, my name is serhiy zhoretskyi, the director of the information consulting company defect-express, which , together with press channels, strives to highlight current trends in the field of security and defense, and now mykhailo samus is joining us - he is the head of the international analytical organization ny geopoliti-syrisochnitsa and also the deputy

of the research center of the army of conversion and armament mr. mykhailo i would like to see and hear you on the air channels espresso ana serhiy greetings i am very glad to see. so i drew a general picture that was related to different visions and assessments of what is happening on the battlefield and i would like you to give your own angle of what is happening and what are the current and potential dynamics on the line of contact , the athlete did not hear you i didn't hear your question, i would like you to evaluate what is happening on the front line and give your own assessment of these current and potential dynamics that may affect the situation on the front line , what is happening precisely from your evaluations. well

, actually, it is really strange to read the evaluations in the western press that it is necessary to concentrate, for example, on one area or hit at one point, well, that is, uh. of course, the people who write such articles. they have never studied operational art, strategy, tactics, and so on . you can't hit at any point, because really, war is war is not a linear process, it is especially modern - it is multi-dimensional, it is multi-dimensional processes that move, of course, not according to linear laws, and when we talk about conducting various operations that form, prepare a further breakthrough or further decisive operations, all this interconnected and of course you can't judge the pace of progress only by how much territory or which settlements are liberated, all this is much more complicated and if you look in

general at the e-e front that stretches for many, many hundreds of kilometers between russia and ukraine, then e-e i concluded for himself that russia actually fell into its own trap , this trap is called the predominance of military political and propaganda goals over the actual military military-static goals of this operation and when the russians, for example, created their own mythology around bakhmut, believing that it is the center of gravity, the center of attraction of ukrainian defense, if bakhmut falls , for example, the ukrainian defense will collapse, they invested uh just in operation a-a for the occupation of bakhmut, well, huge resources in including uh the wagnerites, who in fact destroyed the same mythology under the same bahmut and uh, in fact

, is now being created around kupyansk and around this area, that is, they first declared that they are now breaking through the defenses, and near kupyansk they are now creating conditions when the ukrainian defense crumbles, the ukrainian command will be forced to withdraw reserves from the south and from the same bakhmut direction, and in this way russia will seize the initiative and start an operation again in the kharkiv region to seize kharkiv itself and create a new group that will threaten kramatorsk and slavic and at the same time will stop the possibilities altogether will stop any possibilities for the ukrainian offensive in the eastern direction , in the bakhmut direction and in the southern direction, including the kherson region, after reaching that is, they created a propagandist-propagandist reality and which they must now follow, that is, they continue despite the fact that the ukrainian forces are creating enormous tension in several directions

in the south and under bahmut they continue to burn their reserves in the kupyan direction, they send there more and more new forces are still trying to implement the idea that they actually made public and in which they joined in order to implement it , but we see that it leads to the fact that they can't create enough reserves in the south, now there if you take the tokmak direction for example, they feel a real real deficit and a real i wouldn't say panic, but a commotion which means that they really don't know how they will stop the ukrainian invasion , the same is happening in the berdyan direction, although the situation there, i would say, is more transparent for the russians, but the two directions in the south are very, very tense for the russians, the bakhmut

direction is also on the way, ukrainian troops are moving forward, we know that uh, on the left bank of the kherson region, ukrainian uh, ukrainian special operations forces are carrying out a raid operation and the implementation of measures to expand the gray zone on the coast . thus, depriving the russians of the opportunity to control the situation there and obviously preparing for larger-scale, more active actions. that is it turns out that the russians have created their own propaganda and political paradigm, which they now require the military to follow, and thus fall into the same trap again that in which they got under the fire, that is, investing huge reserves now in kupyansk and again under the fire, they lose the opportunity to stop the ukrainian offensive in the south. i think that the ukrainian troops have really already created the conditions or are very close to it starting

a more active movement in the south, but i do not think that this is a sufficient goal, after all, it is a self-sufficient goal , it is inflicting a strategic defeat on the enemy, and now it is being achieved in several directions , including the kupyan direction, where the russians are spending huge resources without there are no prospects of achieving the results that they are trying to, that is, to force the ukrainian command to stop the offensive in the south and move the reserves to the kharkiv direction, mr. mykhailo, this is about the fact that the russians actually created their own paradigm and became hostages of this paradigm, now they are throwing resources in different directions without having the possibilities are the same well, to respond promptly to the actions of the ukrainian army but then it turns out that a certain information paradigm is being created by american and european journalism experts who are trying to form there

there are three further scenarios, there are evaluations, well, the future of actions, the first scenario there is, in particular, two countries have reached a dead end, they have already reached it, and it is necessary to put pressure on russia, ukraine , to force the other side to negotiations there is a version that is better for mom let's wait for the results of the ukrainian counteroffensive and then, based on this reality, we will form our own policy in the visa relations of ukraine with the russian federation. well , the third option is that it can be said regardless of what the pace will be what will be the results of the ukrainian offensive, all the same, the war will be long, and we europeans, americans, need to prepare for a long war, prepare defense forces and prepare to help ukraine, there is still a certain long time to victory from these three directions of movement. what do you think will dominate in the near future for in order to understand how our partners will conduct themselves by giving us advice or help, it is interesting , again, it seems to me that the russians want

hybrid pressure through various tools propaganda a-a and other e-e areas of activity, including by our western partners e sell such an idea that russia has unlimited resources, that is, no matter how much ukraine fights, no matter how much e-e our western partners do not help ukraine, the russians still have the resource more well, that is, they can spread such information there, they are now uh, uh, mobilizing 5 million military personnel and what are you going to do, ukraine will lose , and therefore there is no point in continuing this war , let's freeze, that is, i have the impression that they want uh, blackmailing the west is such a big, long war in which there is no chance at all in ukraine to win, and they are still leaning on the topic in order to start negotiations about what kind of frost, that is , the minsk-3 frost. of course, it will be

about unblocking russian financial resources abroad, there was no talk about any compensation for the damage to ukraine, of course . to remove the question of punishment of war criminals , etc. some kind of active phase of hostilities, and in this way the west seems to be freed from such a heavy burden of assistance in ukraine , that is, such work is obviously being carried out , judging by what publications appear, what opinions are expressed, including unconscious analysts, that is, these topics are currently being discussed , but this topic is not new, the russians actually started promoting the topic of freezing the conflict immediately after they realized that on february 24, 2022 , a catastrophic mistake was made that led to

extremely tragic consequences for putin's regime, i.e. they are trying to advance it somewhere er-er parallely adapting to the situation somewhere bypassing the sanctions but they understand that in any case the situation will not improve for russia but will worsen and in this regard i would immediately like to say that this is absolutely not true that in russia, there is an unlimited resource, in russia, the resource is very limited, especially if we talk about the same heavy equipment, technology, especially high- tech machine tools, and so on, that is, the sensational mode is extremely important here, so really they can restore a certain part of the heavy equipment of armored vehicles, they can buy a certain part, for example, drones or take technology for the production of the same shaheds, but if you look globally , they do not have so many reserves, so they cannot mobilize 5 million people, because then the russian economy will collapse. i understand that

the putin regime, in principle, everything will be the same with the russian economy, but on the other hand, they have to keep some kind of balance, so it is very important for our western partners to understand that resources in russia are limited, the sanctions regime is extremely important, and this war has its own time frames, and these time frames exclusively depend on the scale of aid to ukraine, that is, if , for example, we were handed an f16 a year ago, then i think that even now we would they talked about completely different events on the front and we would have the conversation was not about linear forecasts of any kind, but still about the conduct of the military to me, as they say, uh, that is , an all-out war using all possible spaces, including air space unfortunately, now russia dominates the airspace and this is a problem, including specific offensive actions of offensive operations. by the way, your

conclusion completely coincides with the recommendations given by general petraeus in this article, because he also talks about the fact that much earlier, it was necessary to transfer aviation to ukraine, not to drag on the transfer of rocket launchers, and much more to ensure the transfer of ammunition before that . and how did we start asking for cluster ammunition? these tips are really worth listening to, and this publication, petre, is interesting because it does not explain to us what is happening there on the southern front, but it is precisely focused on american and european politicians so that they do not wring their hands and prepare for really such a normal , correct job of accepting the fact that is happening in ukraine, i really hope that there will be more and more such publications, i think that actually the ukrainian community should still work more with our european media there so that we shape the agenda and not

responded to those publications that appear in the foreign media so absolutely, but of course there is also our ukrainian choice and our ukrainian measure is that we really have to prepare for a war of attrition, and again, a war of attrition does not mean that it will last 15 years. as some forecasters say, given the age of putin , who can really live for 15 years, it seems to me that with the doubles he has, it is possible to create some kind of digital clone, and in russia, it will be accepted completely normally and er, this regime can exist as long as this one . the population of this putin-infatuated country will tolerate just such a situation.

we really have to pay attention to the optimization of our processes, which also happen in the state. i am talking , for example, about the system of planning the development of the defense-industrial complex based on the needs of the armed forces of ukraine. if it did not sound banal, but at the moment this the system still does not work, that is, i mean, again, the incomprehensible situation with the ministry of static industry, er , the very active role of the ministry of digital transformation, for which we can only simply thank the minister of digital transformation personally, fedorov, and those people who support and all citizens of ukraine and not only ukraine, which helps to donate to army projects drones e-e ot 10,000 e-e fp-v drones were recently financed precisely at the expense of nato contributions, but this is not enough to talk about a war of attrition in

the state system should work here, it's great that the ministry of digital transformation got involved, it's great that people support us and we have a lot of volunteer initiatives, the program all this helps the army but there should still be a state system, there should be a clear understanding of the needs of the armed forces, for example if we need a specific type of drone or with certain characteristics, then in this situation there should be i don't know how to explain it, but there should probably be a state program that should be coordinated by the ministry of strategic industry to budget, and the executors can of course be private companies and foreign companies, but there must be the leader and driver of the process who in the state should be responsible for exactly these issues, for example, i cannot say clearly now who is responsible for such state programs, and it really is the problem if we are talking about an intensive war and a war of attrition is not precisely in

time, but in the fact that we have to break eh in certain directions of development, especially if you proceed from the fact that we symmetrically russia we will not defeat this eh this is a known fact we have to act asymmetrically, and this asymmetrization requires clear coordination at the state level, because only private initiatives or initiatives of citizens , e. the war has been going on for years, and that's why i think that it is possible to find some kind of activity format that would help us to form just such a systemic paradigm of waging war and not sporadically on the fact that by the way, here is one question only for the minister of technology because and society is somewhat. let's say so, the disappointed part is really trying to find the maximum options to help our soldiers on the battlefield, and the rest have distanced themselves from this, and i think that there is no such clear

grouping now regarding the fact that society , industry, politicians are really determined to conduct hostilities where everyone is in its optimal place. as for its power of possibilities, i am. you are ready to admit that this is not yet available. and this is actually a resource that has not yet been used, but is extremely necessary in order to withstand this russian in a rush, and a little returning to the military operations, did you mention the south, uh, is it really? right now, it is important to break through to the azov coast, or can it be considered that, in particular, the program can at least get out to the line there ? yanka e-e volnovakha in order to ensure, first of all, by means of fire , the control of that land corridor that is currently used by the russian federation, or could this be, let's say, quite

a step in order to, in particular, be there by the end of the year to ensure at least fire control over the areas where the enemy is located well, in fact, it is difficult to say here which will be sufficient, of course, we are talking about where to buy all the territories. actions, first of all, i still think that it would be expedient to break up this single theater of military operations, which stretches all the way from the kharkiv region to the crimea, after all , to break it into several theaters of military operations with which then it is possible to work on separately well, i mean that it would be good to physically cut off the water theater of donbas and the theater of military operations in crimea because they are different theaters with different approaches with different, let's say , even formats for implementing operations with different sets of forces and means and that

it is important to talk about such a cutting of these theaters, why is it important? well, first of all, of course , the logistics are breaking down , the enemy's single plan for holding these territories is breaking down. and what is also very important if we we will physically cut off the logistics completely, roughly speaking, if we are talking about melitopol and below and berdyansk already on the sea of ​​azov, then, looking at the left bank of the kherson region , this particular area is the most dangerous for russians, in fact, because if there is a breakthrough now in the main line of defense in the direction of tokmaya and development goes to melitopol , then the conditions are created for more active operations to be carried out already on the left bank of the kherson region, and if

active operations begin there, then the entire group which is now there. i mean the left bank of the kherson region, they will be in such a global dead end , which will be very similar to the global dead end in which the group of russian troops was located on the right bank of the kherson region when they had no other way out or die surrendering captured or try to get across the dnipro . now such a situation will be created, i hope. operations for the de-occupation of crimea and separately will create conditions for the de-occupation of donbas. if we just stop now at tokmak, it will not solve any of these problems and in principle, fire control will be improved conditions for destruction the enemy in some directions, but there will be no change in radical

, which will be able to change the conditions for conducting hostilities for the ukrainian armed forces, that is, what i have described would be appropriate to immediately start such operations for the de-occupation of donbas and crimea because the southern region is so far just that obstacle , although it is a huge obstacle to look at the map, in fact it is a huge obstacle in order to proceed specifically with the dreamed-of de-occupation of crimea and donbas. there is no way around these operations, it will be necessary to have full dominance in the air, mr. mykhailo, thank you very much for your professional comments, of course , there are more questions for you, but unfortunately, unfortunately, time is running out . thank you for the inclusion and i will remind our viewers that efilion from presobu mykhailo himself is the head of the ancient organization, geopolitician, aristocrat of networks, and then we will talk about

what a war of attrition is with our next guest. but this is after a short informational pause. and what do you think about lacalut fix ? particles of food do not get under the prosthesis and the price is good, the right choice for my pension , a new cream for extra-strong fixation of dentures and healthy gums. grams, there are discounts on lospirin tablets 10% in pharmacies. traveller, bam and savings