[000:00:00;00] now we are in violation of the law of the selected company when he forged documents in order to disband a controversial star with whom he apparently had a relationship so that she did not tell about these relationships before the elections, not very serious problems , they cannot protect him based on the facts, they are trying to create a situation where well, baydon is also bad , ah, and how would the whole exchange against baydon be, again, if they figure it out, there is nothing serious there, but create the impression that everything is political corrupt or baida nothing is better than trump yes this is what they are trying to do and are there any objective data at least a little that make it possible to understand how americans perceive all these cases against the fate of trump because his supporters himself present it as political persecution but do the americans really lean towards this version as well? well, we found ourselves in a situation where we

only have different e-e means of disinformation and mass disinformation and social networks that people who want to support trump they can, so to speak, place themselves in such a bubble of information bellies eh and eh, how would they receive crazy information or non -objective information, continue to support him, and ladies, we observe that within the republican party, that is trump 's wing, so to speak accused with more brutality, they support him there . well, political psychological processes are involved in this. uh, questions of public opinion. and if he talks about uh, about the electorate in general, then he uh, don't call, of course, the democrats will calculate that he is definitely guilty, and the majority of non-independent voters also think that he is guilty, so in this sense

, he is not very good the political situation, he will probably receive a threat from the republican party, well, i can't predict the future. on general the elections are probably not very good, but i would still. of course, i did not relax because trump’s second term is going to happen. well, as i often say, i don’t think that america will survive another 4 years of such a thing, dmitry. and what are the chances of a republican in the elections? viva carama swami , because he spoke quite successfully at the first debate and he is against the support of ukraine in the republican party. there were a lot of candidates at the debate

. tries to imitate and ramosvamy who try even more to imitate among them somewhere 75%. that is 501% trump and there 15 and there may be eight or nine 15 landings 8 or 9 in ramos you and all of them have a chance i think very little because i think there will be trump but if trump for some reason about then a new force majeure circumstance may have a health problem , a miracle may occur and the republican electorate will see a guilty verdict against trump if a court of these four is appointed. well, they may be it seems they will decide that i need to nominate him, and then the chances of desantis, a gambler, will definitely increase, and there was a cross of public opinion among republicans , where if you remove trump from this race , desantis will get 30% with ramos 25, that is , they both apparently count on the fact that some

miraculously, someone will deliver them from trump, because they criticize him directly and the voters do not want to lose him. well, if someone somehow delivers them from trump , then they have a chance to replace him, so to speak. well, again, the fundamental problem of the republican party that they either nominate trump or they don’t nominate someone who opposes him, that is , trumpism will apparently win, er, in the process , but in short, we may be short, the situation is hepatic, er, that trump he will go to the elections, we will simulate it, he will go to the elections, he will win, and then he will be found guilty of some charges, because it is not a fact that this will end by november 5 of the next year , when the presidential elections are scheduled. and what will happen in this case? and you absolutely he is right because there are dates when these courts are appointed, but these dates cannot change. they will probably change because the tactics of trump and his lawyers will drag it out as long as possible. it is desirable that he wins the elections and

then that this all happens because the federal case will be able to be stopped and the opportunity can stop new york, georgia, there is a question, but it can happen at any time, not in the constitution, not in the american legislation, there is no prohibition for a criminal to run for office and even win therefore, if the voters still want to vote for him, even if he is already found guilty, if he is already officially a criminal, even if he is in prison, they can still do it. there is a loophole, but i do not want to emphasize it. where it is said that if someone participated in the last during the current state of america, they cannot occupy official posts of the government, but this is not a tested theory. so it is interesting for lawyers . the theory does not say this. tested in the courts, someone must try to do it, someone must take it to the court in some way, and with

an absolutely unknown result , today it looks more like fantaser dmytro. in general, you already said that there are known dates of court sessions there will be two court hearings, by the way, there will be two court hearings in march, one in may, and in fact, this is the hottest period of the election campaign, or at all, will there be an opportunity for trump to engage in the election campaign? yes, this is a real problem for him as a candidate later that he will probably have when the final court proceedings will begin, and they will begin on these dates. he will need to be there, uh, there , the cases will probably last no money, two, and we are probably talking about weeks, maybe even months. and it will be very difficult for him to run an election campaign and on the other hand, one gets the impression that those who want to vote for her don't care that he did everything he did, so to speak, he travels around the states and agents in order to elect

me. to vote and again, the effect of the trial process can affect them in the opposite way, like the red rag rag rag on bykov, that is, we need to vote even more even more quickly for him, and at this time, when these processes begin , a lot of states will start voting, that is, the first state of quince in january and then it won’t go away, but then it starts. it’s going to increase. there is such a super tuesday, i don’t know the exact date. no more courts it will have no meaning because they can be chosen in each state, the rule is a little different, but in many states , the winner, even if he didn't get 50%, he takes a disproportionate number of voters, sometimes their choice, and they take into account what he has today 51 % against him. well, we saw eight people on the stage, and he even has 33-45% support, but he can

still get enough voters to get a number . and what does the current rating show, who has more chances to become president in the general elections, yes, in the elections on november 5, so if we assume that biden will win, he will receive the nomination from the democrats, and this is very likely, again, there will not be any force majeure , and trump will win the nomination from the republicans, and- and it is apparently non-partisan today, considering all the legal proceedings, they don’t seem to want to support trump, but the problem is that biden is not very popular, that is, if they vote, there are too many of them will vote for less than two-thirds, and it is risky because there will be people who will not come to vote, there will be people who will want to vote for the candidate of some third party, which has no chance, for example

, the greens, which has no chance, not in this different historically, they have never had chanson will win, and therefore it is not clear. and in all the polls that we are looking at now , they cannot be relied on, especially since they do not get 50% below nitrump. they have 40 c something in each sometimes one 44 in the other 42 sometimes on the contrary but this is how many there are 10-15% who do not answer anything no one will not vote for this is a big problem that there are no guarantees in fact well this is thank you very much for joining our broadcast dmytro abramson political blogger a columnist from the united states of america was with us , for example, in a video call, dmytro keeps us abreast of the pre-election preparations, which in principle have already begun. although it is not uncommon to hear the opinion that the next elections will begin immediately after the end of the previous ones, the united the states are crossing the finish line and we will find out who will be the first at the finish

line. on november 5, 2024 , on this date, the vote should take place . in the temporarily occupied territories, the main intelligence agency confirmed drone strikes on military facilities, up to the farthest of them - 700 km, the most striking consequences of cotton in the territory of the russian federation vladislav watered blow gathered look explodes brightly burns well, i said it and it is very surprising to the locals, for example, pskov 700 km to the border with ukraine is on fire, the local airfield is frying il-76 transport planes, the same ones that are often used to deliver weapons to shell

ukraine, two planes at our airport and no more they are just saying that the information about the drone attack was confirmed in our intelligence. and here are the results of the attack , which have not been made public: the destroyed and damaged planes can be seen on the airfield. and launched from the territory of russia, as a result of the attack, four russian il-76 military transport aircraft were damaged , two of them were destroyed and two were seriously damaged . russia used aircraft to transport military cargo and personnel of the russian airborne forces, and this is already exploding in bryansk, one of the last the attack was previously at the silicon plant, one of the largest electronics factories in russia , expected in the local authorities declare that the drones were shot down , but only on video, everything is a little different, i already

told you, zpilodnik, drones fly at night too and in the middle of the working day, tretyu is already restless and in the kaluska region, by the way, the shaykovka airfield is located there, from where russian strategic bombers take off to attack ukraine , belgorod, ryazan, moscow region and the capital itself in moscow are restless. in the temporarily occupied territories, for example, in energodar, they hit the location of kadirov residents, cotton became commonplace , and in the crimea, three powerful rockets flew over explosions and in sevastopol, where the black sea fleet of the russian federation is based on the tarkhana kukut, ukrainian soldiers destroyed the russian modern

anti-aircraft system s-400a which are located on the temporarily occupied peninsula and are capable of living the same. combat capability. our task now is to ensure that the combat capabilities of the enemy are the least, but russia cannot qualitatively cope with the ukrainian means of destruction in the video published on the development of our uav chased by two combat helicopters and one enemy plane at once, non-stop fire and our drone returns unharmed to the base for strikes on the enemy of the armed forces of the armed forces use exclusively own developments, the successful use of our long-range weapons, the target is hit 700 km away, ukraine now produces a lot of attack drones, and this is causing hysteria in the kremlin, they say in gur, but cotton in

russia and the temporarily occupied territories will now sound more often, a confident military expert does not matter how far they will be from our command border of the armed forces in our special services demonstrated such a very creative approach, combining force and means of destruction, and it does not matter where these missiles are hidden under vladivostok or in the urals, chipskovy or the volga, sooner or later, if these objects pose a threat to ukraine, they will get to them, such acts extremely important for us, because we not only reduce the military potential of the enemy, but also keep him in constant tension , the planes that turn into ashes at

the airfields of the bases they will definitely never fly to our territory launch rockets and bombs at our position at the civilians of our country, it is obvious that all our activities are aimed at destroying the combat military potential of the russian federation, the russian army has begun to attack its strategic aviation, in particular. here, introspection on satellite images of the dyagelev air base recorded two bombers that may have visors behind them according to the data , they are installed in the vulnerable places of the planes above the tanks and whether they will help the occupiers to protect their equipment, unlikely vladyslav palivoda, we are ukraine, marathon, the only news, promotion the ministry of finance plans to raise the minimum wage in two stages at least such preliminary decisions have been approved in the draft state budget for 2024 starting at uah 400 in january, so the minimum wage will be uah 7,100 and in july it will add

another uah 900 to uah 8,000, says ivanus , chief consultant of the national institute of strategic studies, in the government candidates of economic sciences are now in direct contact with us, mr. ivan, we welcome you, good evening, good morning, studio, good morning, tv viewers, mr. ivan, we are talking about the state budget 2024 and the planned increase in the minimum wage will take place in two stages. and we know that the lion 's share of our budget is the funds of our western partners , e.e., grant funds. will we be able to afford to raise the minimum wage in such conditions, as much as possible, first of all, because i really agree that roughly half of ukraine's budget now is the help of our partners, so it is necessary to agree with them on this step, but

you know, well, they are special helpers to ukraine for ukraine to withstand this war economically, because it has been said many times that there are certain parallels between the war that russia is currently waging against ukraine and the first world war, when germany did not lose the war militarily, but it lost it economically, therefore it is considered that germany lost the first world war, although on the territory of germany, the military leader , wasn't there something interesting right now, in order for ukraine to endure and not lose this war in terms of the economy, it is really necessary to take steps , including, er, to make this promotion minimum wage and now, if ukraine agrees to this step with partners, i hope that the dialogue is conducted, in the end it will be possible to reach this figure, and plus the economy of ukraine, in principle, it also wants not to be perfect, but we are working, we see that not only certain businesses are preserved, but even

opened in the conditions of war, and this certainly gives positive signals that since the economy is developing, there are reasons for you to take such steps, although the experiment emphasizes first of all thinking about defense issues , and after all, other issues are possible and then and what does the balance of the state budget look like in the context of expenditures and revenues, as of today, of course, our main orientation is the sphere of security, but this does not mean that absolutely everything goes there. that is why , as far as i am concerned, other expenses, such as capital, are also reduced. to say that they are significant, nevertheless, certain sums are also

sent there, which at least maintain life at the current level. to see on september 15, according to the budget legislation, i think that there will be a balance here, mr. ivan , the ministry of finance has calculated that the necessary minimum amount of funds that we will ask from our western partners is 42 billion dollars. a year and we have several sources of funding: funds from the european union, funds from the imf, grant funds, funds provided by the united states of america, will it be able to raise this minimum amount that we need? let's go, i think we can because first of all, there are indeed sources that you mentioned, there are also some countries of the european union, there are also japan, there are other uh, well, with jose

's countries, that is , canada. and there are other countries. the kingdom of saudi arabia, the united arab emirates, which also helped ukraine , that is, in principle, i think that there will be a significant problem in collecting these funds, the main thing is to use them transparently and to enter into a dialogue with the countries that provide us with funds, especially with democracies, their governments report to citizens that they control the use of these funds that they are really aimed at maintaining the economy of ukraine and preventing it 42 billion is not guaranteed, that is, the partners have undertaken obligations, but there is still no guarantee that we will receive these funds, although we

are already entering the budget process, do you see any threats in this regard, i do not think that there are some significant threats because, you know, after all, we are talking to democracies that have their own processes, any agreement takes time, because there is, let’s say , ideological support for ukraine and an understanding that ukraine must be allowed to endure in this war and in including the economic one, and you know, because he has experience communicating with many experts from europe, especially from poland, on the arab airwaves, you know, they say that , you know, it is very important for us that ukraine receives everything it needs, not only weapons but also financial assistance in order to maintain the ability to function normally even in war conditions while it continues

, at least in poland , an expert from poland said that they would do everything possible to ensure that this assistance really was and still is. that they will provide to mr. ivan, to what extent is the return to military excise taxes in vat, the return of those taxes to the level they were before the full-scale invasion, how much does it support our state budget, our partners, first of all they are asking you to know that we help you, but you also have to earn money yourself, and this is exactly where this return to certain pre-war approaches is taking place. we are making money, and that is why it is very important. by the way, the work of the black sea grain initiative should be restored, and the ability of ukraine to export grain in general, because, for example, in march , ukraine received new

200 billion dollars from exports, and in july it was 370 million dollars. that is this fall is in march or july, it is more correct in july to march, this is just a reflection of those problems that are also relatively neighboring countries of the eu, which provide opportunities to sell grain to them and in the actual black sea grain initiative, because if we compare , it was found to be reduced the largest supply was to china, because thanks to the black sea initiative ukraine supplied a lot of corn to china, and it is critical for us to return the opportunity to export our grain by sea and if we succeed in this it will be easier for us to achieve and ensure

the functioning of the budget. well, this is a plus. another article is the return of the excise tax. this is also important . bulgaria, then turkey, that is, what is happening now, the president said in yesterday's address that several vessels have already gone there, but we understand how much it takes a longer way, that is, it takes much more time and the corresponding one takes more money, because when you go to a simpleton in the black sea, it saves you time and, therefore, money, so in principle i don’t think that e let’s put it this way, these alternative options are better . therefore, i still hope that this will be a solution putin will be promoted because russia will return to this initiative, because turkey has its kozars, mr. ivan. and what about the national debt of ukraine, because at

the beginning of august, he set it at 132.9 billion dollars, and according to forecasts, by the end of this year, it will be in relation to to our gdp will be 90%, and by the end of 2024-95, how dangerous is it and does it threaten the financial stability of the country, it is definitely dangerous. but i cannot say that it is critically dangerous, because if you look at the data of other countries, for example, japan , the debt-to-bicycle ratio is there . even more so, the question is not how much the number is off , the question is how much ukraine will be able to organize a dialogue with partners.

to do this is the beginning of the redemption of the so-called yaremchesk mornings, that is, when ukraine got the economy in 2012-2015, and then we actually forgave us, deferred payments on the floors, that is, the restructuring took place, but in exchange for this, the medals were guaranteed and for which we had to pay, if i am not mistaken, to 20401, and ukraine bought them back then , and it was a really successful operation . unfortunately, we understand why we were successful . because the whole world is waiting for a full-scale war. these options, and nevertheless, we then demonstrated a very loud-mouth policy in relation to debt redemption. therefore , the main thing now is not to forget that in this schedule it is still necessary to constantly win over our partners in order for it to happen let's say this or restructuring them or created opportunities in ukraine to return them and not have this

rather significant burden on our budget in the post-war years and in the future during the recovery periods ivan and what are the expectations regarding inflation that we can see the calculated indicator roughly speaking, you know what we plan to prepare for next year. i think that inflation can be single-digit, that is , for now we have, as they say , double-digit inflation. but i think it will be less than 10%. that is, let's say that somewhere around this corridor, uh, what do you think we will be able to get, because even comparing the inflation there at the beginning of a small-scale war and what we have now, we can see that this number is decreasing, and this is very important. and now , if i'm not mistaken 11%, so i think that it will be in the draft budget for next year

about 9 out of 8% thank you for your analysis ivanus, the chief consultant of the national institute of strategic studies, candidates of economic sciences, was with us on a direct video link . victory is approaching on august 23 , 1939, the molotov-ribbentrop pact was signed , the world met it with black humor, but on september 1, it became no laughing matter. germany attacked

poland. on september 17, the soviet union entered war on the side of the third reich. on december 23, 1939, pravda newspaper published a warm birthday greeting from comrade stalin on behalf of adolf hitler. i ask you to accept my most sincere greetings. stalin replied to hitler and ribbentrop. the friendship between the peoples of germany and the soviet union is bound by blood. strong friendship bound by blood did not last long and the fire of war was already burning world war ii took according to various estimates from 70 to 86 million lives the crimes of the kremlin they always say we can they are those who will repeat what was destroyed in their hometown and those who started everything from scratch in a new region those who support

the army with their business and who put their business on pause in order to be on the front lines those who yesterday sewed wedding dresses and today neck uniforms those who yesterday he made tractors or trucks, and today he makes demining machines , they are the ones who continue to work despite the shelling of blekalta and even when their life's work is destroyed by entrepreneurs. thank you for the stability of the harvest, and the fate of the ukrainian grain is still being decided in july, the russians unilaterally came out with a grain initiative of ukraine, let's look for new ways of transporting grain and strengthen the old ones, meanwhile, russia itself is looking for ways to knock ukraine out of the world market, and it is still destroying grain, so what is happening now with the grain issue, anna brikova dealt with