[000:00:00;00] to push russia or to plan something that will make the dispersal there fall apart, they will sooner well, of course, they will be interested in politics but now i think because they well, they do not know definitively how it will be there and with whom it will be there, there are certain parameters that we would consider well, in principle, two parameters it seems to me more of a strategy, or after all, putin is better than others because everything else is completely bad , or the option that what can be bad if it is weaker than putin, then it is also or to ensure stability but russia will not it is also acceptable to be so aggressive, in the end no one is going to build democracy in russia anymore, they are fed up with the development of democracy, they will not build more, but it seems to me that such a situation as it is now , in general, the policy of the united states of the united states to russia, well, it is approximately the same as its

arbitrary they think about the situation in russia in a year will be considered not in a year. well, in a year it will be considered victorious by the american voters , so what will it be? disarmament based on those considerations, so that the image of russia would look victorious. for the united states, this is not a policy aimed at this, but it must be understood that for american voters , it seems to me that it is important for them that no additional risks are created, and that the collapse of russia is a risk there is a lot of instability in russia , this is a risk, and refugees from russia are a risk, so they will probably try to preserve the stability of the russian state, but within the limits of what

ukraine can achieve. actually, there are two such two such things that the united states seems to me not to understand, and for that reason blinky does not travel to understand what ukraine can achieve and, accordingly, they can build that policy towards russia so that, well, it is preserved in some form, but not as aggressive as it was. well, then it arises the question is what can ukraine achieve? ukraine can achieve according to the forces and means at its disposal . par- the paradigm of the united states so that these events in ukraine in the format of the ukrainian-russian war. they were somehow incorporated and , as you said at the beginning, into the election campaign of the united states so that it did not carry too many risks , and then one can say that the cardinal successes of ukraine can also cause such predicted by the americans, the risks are what the russians said. now they will use tactical weapons there, it will cause a cascading effect

, then let the ukrainians take their time, and this means that then, relatively speaking, now our the advancement in the south will somehow get stuck in the political reality that does not depend on us. well, i think it will be as we ourselves want, but with what you said, what we will receive from our partners is, well , it does not depend on us to a large extent it does not depend on the weapons that we receive, it is obvious that aviation will not be clear soon that we will have to bite through a lot of blood, but when we bite through and reach melitopol and beyond and i think there is already, well, no one will be able to stop ukraine well, i mean that there would melitopol is there and dzhankoy, in the end, there is no longer such a big difference, there are things that the united states cannot influence , they can influence the framework, and this is

unfortunately so that they slow down the supply of weapons because they do not understand how it will happen if ukraine wins quickly, they simply do not understand or what it will be. and in the end such a risk will suddenly happen , just like with the leopards, but they came across these fortifications and the certifications found that they are not so effective and in the end commercial the price of leopards is falling, something needs to be changed there, it can also be the case that they were provided with airplanes and the pilots were not trained a little or something was not added and it will turn out to be not so effective, there are always these risks, but they want to minimize these risks, they will see that ukraine is already gnawing away it is gnawing well yes here unfortunately, it is cynical, but we do not have other partners and there is no partner more powerful than the united states. the united states can do a lot, but the interests do not always coincide. well

, then i will ask not about the united states, but about the european partners. does this mean that the slow advancement of ukraine or the slow decline of russian potential over time actually suits our partners because at the current stage their concept of deterrence, their capabilities to conduct combat operations , they are inadequate to the challenges that actually exist on the battlefield and now in there is a certain temporary such carbon in a certain partial reserve to ensure internal transformation to reach a different level of combat readiness and as long as we are fighting and actually act as the main outpost protection of european interests during this time, nato can prepare for real military operations, and the longer we fight, the easier it is for them to prepare, well, to some extent , it seems to me that there are two main elements, here are such considerations, which are very difficult to list

, the first well but in the united states it is clear because the terms are clear there, well, this is one parameter in this - it is not very fast to have time to have time to do, well, to launch a certain process , to spin up certain processes, and secondly, after all, everything must end by the time this war will not turn into such an endless afghan war. in other words, this is also an undesirable scenario. therefore, one day it is necessary to end it, preferably with the victory of ukraine, but it is necessary to understand that ukraine will be able to do it within the framework of what is given to it, not without straining and putting everything on the map, so i i think the united states has such a limitation, the elections of some, the main thing must be resolved or in europe, other processes. i think they are more economical. i think i would say so that now for the united for europe, the main thing is

how quickly poland will gain on itself the functions of germany against the lessons of the cold war, here are the lessons of the cold war. during the cold war, there was such a situation when germany was an outpost of west germany. there were groups there, there was a concentration of forces . there should have been major battles. 4% of the gross domestic product of these huge purchases. in general, it is clear that poland and even talk about nuclear weapons in poland. i would say that we should give poland time to become new. well, let 's take this step to become so new defense defense well outpost i don’t even know the center of gravity even the center of gravity defense europe nato and the eu well i don’t

think that we have to wait until poland deploys all its programs but well and i think if we give poland another year to build up well we will thank you, but at what cost to the parish? well, i asked only half of the questions that i always prepared. more questions . well, unfortunately, we don't have time. thank you very much for your comments. for your vision, the situation is very interesting to our viewers. what is it for? let me remind you that the press class was actually broadcast on the air by oleksiy ezhyk, an expert of the national institute of strategic studies, and then we continue this topic with other experts .

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oschad pharmacies the war is going on and not only for the territories it is also a war for umy russia is throwing millions of naftodors to turn ukrainians into little russia ukraine will become russia analysis and analysis of information about ukraine by russian propagandists specific facts and methods by which hostile propaganda turns people into obedient zombies »m attacks of russians in the project of chronicles of the information war with olga leni tuesday thursday friday at 17:10 on espresso mykola tv channel september vitaly portnikov and the main topics of the week if it is used against ukraine god forbid really tactical nuclear weapons it will definitely change the world history problems analysis and personalities

we are waiting for john gerbs the former ambassador to of the united states in ukraine thank you for the invitation, you have questions, you will get answers, so the question awaits how to understand portnikov september every friday at 21:15 for espresso every week saturday political club helps to understand the processes taking place in ukraine and the world vitaly portnikov host espresso and invitation experts based facts , give their assessment and forecast of the development of events, want to understand how our today will affect our tomorrow, watch the saturday political club that saturdays on espresso

, this is the 23rd separate rifle battalion of the armed forces of ukraine now we were already in such a significant ledge. and we are actually on the very edge of this ledge holding the defense. the battalion has wedged itself into the defense of the orks in donetsk region and is holding its position right now . this is the loss of the enemy and the saved life of our soldier, join the gathering , we will show our soldiers that we continue our program next to them, and now we are joined by oleksiy melnyk, director of foreign policy and international security programs razumkova center everyone i congratulate you i am glad to see and hear i congratulate you the situation of our conversation here i would like to not even continue i literally finished the conversation with oleksiy ezhyak an expert of the research center and there we talked about the situation on the front line about

the pace of advancement about the pace of aid and he said two theses that i would like to take with you there as a seed for further discussion, firstly, that the rate of aid provision, the conditions of aid provision from the united states, in one way or another, depends on the political realities that exist in the united states and from the point of view of actions by european countries, one way or another, this slow advancement of ukraine or slow aid to ukraine, one way or another, depends on when the alliance itself will gain strength to be able to engage in real hostilities with the russian federation and how long it says or poland will not gain strength and will not become a country like germany during the cold war. what do you think actually depends on the pace and volume of aid? to what extent do these political factors in

europe and political factors in the united states affect how we receive help, how we now shape our combat operations , how we depend on our partners is such a broad question, but let's try to answer it as succinctly as possible. in my opinion, it is precisely the lack of a vision of the ukrainian victory as we see it, plus what caveats that have been repeatedly expressed is to prevent a direct conflict between russia and the north atlantic

alliance. actually, they are playing such a powerful restraining role in the adoption of political decisions well, accordingly, this already affects the speed of the supply of which weapons, where there are its own factors, technical technological factors , bureaucratic factors. that is, it is a whole complex, but if this first restriction were to be removed, that is, if the united states ceased to be guided by the so-called management policy escalation, if they somehow looked at the red lines on the drawing, let's say so, and the restrictions they impose on themselves , fearing that putin will use nuclear weapons will attack one of the nato countries, then, probably, and the whole process would

move faster , this is the second kind. they mentioned that nato seems to want you in time in order to better prepare. despite all that, well, people sitting in the kremlin are detached from reality, this is exactly what they or what they clearly understand , if their teeth were broken, figuratively speaking , ukraine, then entering into a war with the north atlantic alliance, well, this is really a matter of three days, and in russia , the russian army will simply be developed there they understand it there. i think that the alliance is definitely not going to fight. well, they are not simply not considered with this. at the same time, are there possible, so to speak, any options for a black swan of such a large scale that one way or another

will force nato countries to engage in hostilities because she also says the events there with the missiles in poland, then with the shaheds in romania, on the one hand, we see that nato is trying to find such an answer, which is not irritating for the russian federation, as it seems to us, and on the other hand, we see that there can be various hybrid actions on the part of the russian federation, which in one way or another require a military challenge and a military response on the part of the alliance , are you not considering such options and the minimum number of such black swans, well, the black swan is not insignificant, and it is by definition black because it cannot be predicted, so, so, so er, of course, since they appear from time to time, no one can rule it out. but again, based on this term itself

, it cannot be predicted, but we can, in principle, predict a scenario that can lead to lead to such a phenomenon as the black swan are also synonyms , let's say which are used. the terms are, for example, strategic . corporal here. i think in this case it is a more appropriate term. it basically means that at some grassroots level, a corporal or junior or senior an officer can make a mistake or an initiative decision that then has strategic consequences . examples of this. we have seen, for example, this is how uh, one of them is when russian planes attacked american drones. here and there er, in principle, they were literally there, maybe a mm from a serious incident, because the actions

of the russian pilot were extremely unprofessional . and the fact that he did not kill himself by attacking this drone is just that, well, he was born in a shirt, so to speak. so if there was a plane crash the death of the crew, this could be a step towards escalation. but again, even if we recall when turkey shot down a russian plane, we will also say the justification of how far it entered the airspace of turkey . then literally everyone there already expected that the russian tank would now meet the turkish one, but this did not happen because there are certain mechanisms when the leaders of the allied countries can restrain the worst-case scenario at any moment under one important condition

, if each of the parties is not interested in such a conflict. and to date, neither nato nor russia are interested in direct military action, so black swans are possible. let's say put the brakes on and prevent it, then if we are talking about such effects of a corporal or a black swan against the background of this, the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons to belarus, the placement of a tact of characteristic warheads, this is, in principle, an increase in the rates of risk rates on the part of the russian federation. then what is the purpose of these actions from the point of view of the expectations of the russian federation itself? i have several versions of why putin did this. well, in addition to scaring

western leaders once again with the fact that he can use tactical nuclear weapons eh hmm there may be such a version we cannot rule it out although it sounds like such an incredible version or an incredible scenario that at some point putin seems to use lukashenka so that he , as it were, with his own hands a nuclear strike on the nose whether it is in one of the nato countries or in ukraine, that is, by creating a certain provocation and then lukashenka had this bomb, his pilot or his missile, this bomb was hit on the territory of ukraine, there is a lower

risk for russia itself, for belarus or territories of nato. but this cannot be ruled out, because after all that russia is doing after or in the background, everything that lukashenko is carrying when he counts against himself from the following two sentences, that is, even such absolutely incredible scenarios cannot be ruled out, but rather for all that at a certain moment putin was given a fairly clear signal . well, maybe he was even described that his actually, some of his plans have already been revealed , that's why i don't think that in the near future there will be any continuation of this story of tactical weapons on the territory of belarus and here, when we talk about the potential of russia, you are really talking about the fact that russia is not ready to fight with nato countries, because the gdp of the nato countries there seems to be 50-60% of the world's, and the potential of russia

there is up to 2% maximum, that is, economically not juxtaposed, but not only by the potential of gdp, everything is measured , including by the presence of nuclear weapons, this factor of influence through nuclear weapons will also affect the states and european countries, even if it is less than one percent there, he saw, we see that well acts effectively enough on our partners, which is precisely what limits such drastic decisions regarding aid in ukraine , the question arises as to how it is possible to weaken the potential of the russian federation or the weakening of the military potential of the economic potential or can lead to a certain limit when our partners will act more decisively or a similar situation in principle , it suits our partners and everything will depend on how we will act on the field , because this will shape the picture of interaction in europe and america in relation to us

as far as the comparison of potentials is concerned, you absolutely rightly stated that the size or percentage of world gdp per day is measured in percentages or billions of dollars, it is important , but it is unlikely to stop the aggressor. year took a clear course for a war of attrition, then the economy is really important here , and in this case, if it were not for the external support of ukraine, then russia would have won this war guaranteed, guaranteed. i am not saying that we ended, but the fact that ukraine could not withstand a long war of attrition without external aid is an established fact

. the third thesis, which i think is also important to understand, is to remember that nuclear blackmail or nuclear weapons work as a means of deterrence, because somewhere in the late 60s, those years after the caribbean crisis, such a consensus was reached regarding the fact that there can be no winner in a nuclear war, since the potentials have reached the level of guaranteed mutual destruction. that is , despite the fact that now the system, which was then developed in the late 70s and 80s, the system containment of the international system of international treaties has practically been destroyed, all the same, this is the understanding that nuclear weapons can be threatened, but to a certain extent, because there cannot be a winner there, but there is also, i

already talked about it, there is probably a clear understanding of the russian e-e military, including probably putin himself believes that by conventional means the united states can inflict damage on russia no less than fire volleys with hundreds of tomahawks and russia, realizing that they cannot give advice, for example, to ukrainian drones there, single attacks with the help of missile targets on the territory of the russian federation, that is, they themselves, i think, perfectly imagine what the end of this conflict will be, that it will be

short-lived, what targets will be hit randomly, it is possible also mention that i don't know how true this is, but the program had such information at one time, the americans, when the russians were actively threatening mints and weapons today, they showed them somewhere a draft plan as to how the entire black sea fleet can be destroyed literally within a very short, well, 500 very short time as a response to such actions of russia, that is, russia , you understand and i would like to ask then about such a thing as security guarantees for ukraine that this topic was raised before the vilnius summit, then it gradually receded into the background when publications in foreign publications what is there in the format of javen countries , this topic is now being discussed, but countries

see differently how these guarantees can be in are there security guarantees given to ukraine? and are we talking about security guarantees or the obligations of the g7 countries to ukraine and what is happening now with these security guarantees? what is your vision, what changes are possible there, well, in the medium term around this topic. if we talk about guarantees, then this is obviously full membership date only article 5 of nato at least prescribes these guarantees , you can talk about how reliable they are as a topic of a separate conversation, because if you read the text of this short paragraph, we will see that the obligations are not so

i apologize for the technology, obliging you that every member of the alliance the next day or the same day is obliged to send their soldiers to the territory, that is, they will be obliged to help with everything they can , but there is no direct requirement that troops will be provided there either, but in any case, this is a guarantee literally one minute literally one minute i would like you to tell me about guarantees and obligations regarding obligations i think it is no less important today it is more important because those obligations that we have are already registered in declarations of the big seven, they are really quite valuable. now there will be a process of formalizing these obligations with each of the countries. so this can be equated to a guarantee, because i will say once again that nato guarantees, even article 5 , are almost the same as these obligations

that is, they will be carried out, that is, and one more thing, as i would like to say that it is possible not entirely from the military sphere, but foreign investments are very reliable guarantees, if there were foreign investments in the territory of ukraine in the amount of hundreds of billions of dollars, then i guarantee you that the situation with the speed and volume of assistance in the event of aggression in the event of a threat by the capital of foreign investors, well, this would be such a catalyst that everything would be much faster and in a larger volume . i would like to remind the viewers that oleksiy melnyk, the director of international programs of the center , together with espresso, was on the air, stay tuned to the espresso channel, there will be