[000:00:00;00] weapons in poland, er, here i would say, we should give poland time to become a new one. well, take this er, well, this move to become such a new defense, defense, well, an outpost , i don’t even know, the center of gravity, even the center of gravity, the defense of europe, nato and the eu, well i don't think that we should wait until poland deploys all its programs, but i think that if we give poland another year to develop, they will be grateful to us , but at what cost? more well, unfortunately, we don't have time very much thank you for your comments and for your vision of the situation, which is very interesting to our viewers, why should i remind you that

the press class was actually broadcast by oleksiy the hedgehog of the national institute of strategic studies and then we continue this topic with other experts but after the informational pause and continued our program literally for a few minutes documentary cycle military intelligence of ukraine each sortie is most likely a one-way road that in principle happened to each of them in the end shot down russian pilots from the navigator of the evacuation helicopter to deputy commanders of air regiments and how many we asked for. that's all eight. yes, how our defenders of the sky repelled the largest air attack since the second world war and what exactly will f16 fighters help ukraine f16 will help us keep russian terrorists away unique special operation titmouse let's run and take evacuation along the perimeter became like military scouts managed

to lure a russian pilot to our side together with a helicopter, no one wants to go to war , here's to see when ukraine will win, it's only a matter of time, the documentary was shot down pilots of russia, watch on saturday at 1:50 p.m. not with the press, every day there are messages with fundraising to help the military, and not only we collected more volunteers in one day than in the previous 8 years, and donating is another manifestation of the struggle of ukrainians in the military the husband and the donors, of course, attacked it, which means they didn’t throw away the money, someone just publishes a list of needs, and someone collects money in a creative way. and they are like that a day later , a truck of bread left and i raffled it off at the auction, it went for uah 75,000 only lighter. what are ukrainians not coming up with to help

our military, just send it to us . as much as you can, even a repeat , just send it to us. which knowingly cooperates with the occupying power to the detriment of its own country, until recently these people lived nearby , pretended to love ukraine, our home , school family, our only ukraine, but in fact they were waiting for russian peace, independence day этот the day we honor our family, we must know the traitors in the face, know what to punish, watch the collaborators program every wednesday at 5:45 p.m. on the sp tv channel, we continue our program and now we are joined by oleksiy melnyk, director of foreign policy and international security programs, the rumzkova center, everyone . congratulations, i am glad to see you and

hear i congratulate you, expert serhiy, we are continuing our conversation, but i would like not to continue. i literally finished the conversation with oleksiy ezhyak, an expert of the research center and institute, and there we talked about the situation on levels of the front about the pace of advancement about the pace of aid and he said two theses that i would like to take with you there as a seed for further discussion, firstly that the pace of aid provision, the conditions of aid provision from the united states somehow depends on those political realities that are developing in the united states. and from the point of view of actions by european countries, one way or another, this slow advancement of ukraine or slow aid to ukraine, one way or another, depends on when the alliance itself will gain strength to be capable of engaging in real hostilities with the russian federation and until, relatively speaking, poland gains strength and becomes

a country like germany during the cold war. what do you think actually depends on the pace and volume of aid? how much do these political factors in europe and the political factors of the united states affect how we receive aid, how we now shape our military operations, how we depend on our partners, such a broad question , but let's try to answer it as concisely as possible, first, regarding those barriers which still exist, the first thing you pointed out, quite rightly, is the political will, and in my opinion, it is precisely the lack of a vision of the ukrainian victory as we see it, plus what a caveat that has been repeatedly

expressed is to prevent a direct conflict between russia and the north atlantic alliance. actually, they play such a powerful deterrent role in making political decisions well, accordingly, this already affects the speed of the supply of which weapons, which have their own factors, technical technological factors , bureaucratic factors, that is, it is a whole complex, but if this first restriction were to be removed, that is, if the united states ceased to be guided by the so-called policy of escalation management, if they somehow, so to speak, revised the red lines

themselves on the drawing, let’s say also the restrictions that they impose on themselves , whether putin is using nuclear weapons will attack one of the nato countries , then, probably, the whole process would move faster. this is the second kind. they pointed out that nato seems to want you now in order to better prepare. i do not share this thesis, because now it is simply imagine, well, with all that, well, people are sitting in the kremlin, detached from reality , this is exactly what they or what they clearly understand , if their teeth were broken, figuratively speaking , ukraine, then entering into a war with the north atlantic alliance, well, this is really a matter of three days, and russia

, the russian army will be simply crushed there and there, they understand it. i think that the alliance is definitely not going to fight. well, they are not simply not considered with this, but at the same time , are there possible, so to speak, any conditional options for a black swan of such a large scale that one way or another will force nato countries to engage in hostilities, because i prefer the events there with missiles in poland, then with the shaheds in romania, on the one hand, we see that nato is trying to find such an answer, it is not irritating for the russian federation, as it looks to us, but with on the other hand, we see that there may be various hybrid actions on the part of the russian federation, which in one way or another require a military challenge and a military response from the alliance, or are you not considering such options, and the minimum number of such black swans is, well, quite insignificant black swan

and he is by definition black because it is impossible for him to predict it, so that's why, of course, since they appear from time to time, no one can rule it out. but again, based on this very term , it cannot be predicted, but we can in principle to predict a scenario that can lead to such a phenomenon as the black swan are also synonyms, let's say what are used. the terms are, for example, strategic . corporal here. i think in this case it is a more appropriate term. it basically means that at some grassroots level well a corporal or a junior or senior officer can make a mistake or an initiative decision that then has strategic consequences. examples of this we have seen, for example, how

uh, one of them is when russian planes attacked an american drone. and there uh, in principle, they were literally it is possible that there is a mm away from a serious incident because the actions of the russian pilot were extremely unprofessional . and the fact that he did not kill himself attacking this drone is just that, well, he was born in a shirt, so to speak. so if there was the crash of the plane, the death of the crew, this could be a step towards escalation. but again, even if we recall when turkey shot down a russian plane, we will also say the justification . so how far did it enter the airspace of turkey? everyone there already expected that the russian tanks would now meet with

the turkish ones, but this did not happen because there are certain mechanisms when the leaders of the allied countries can restrain the worst-case scenario at any moment under one important condition if each of the parties is not interested in such a conflict . as of today, neither nato nor russia are interested in direct military action, so black swans are possible. yes, but at the moment, we must do everything possible, and we can already see it, in order to defuse this incident. let's say so. on the brakes and prevent it, well, then if we are talking about such effects of a corporal or a black swan against the background of this , the tactical redeployment of nuclear weapons to belarus, the placement of a tact of good warheads , this is, in principle, an increase in rates

risk rates on the part of the russian federation. then what is the purpose of these actions from the point of view of the expectations of the russian federation itself? i have several versions of why putin did this. well , in addition to scaring western leaders once again with the fact that he can sing tactical nuclear weapons, it can be such a version. we cannot rule it out. although it sounds like such an incredible version or an incredible scenario that at some point putin will use lukashenka so that he , as if with his own hands, would launch a nuclear attack on his nose strike either in one of the nato countries or on ukraine, that is, creating a certain provocation and then lukashenko was this bomb, his

pilot or his missile, this bomb, that bomb was hit on the territory of ukraine , the risk is lower for russia itself, for belarus or territories of nato. but it cannot be ruled out because after all that russia is doing after or in the background of everything that lukashenko is carrying when he counts against himself, he was in the following sentences, that is, even such absolutely incredible scenarios cannot be ruled out, but rather for everything that is certain at the moment, putin was given a fairly clear signal. perhaps he was even described as saying that we have already uncovered some of our behinds. that is why i do not think that in the near future there will be some continuation of this story of tactical weapons on the territory of belarus. and to whom are we talking about the potential

to russia, you are really talking about the fact that russia is not ready to go to war with nato countries, because the gdp of nato countries there seems to be 50-60% of the world's, russia's potential there is up to 2% at most, that is, the economic ones are not compared, but not only in terms of potential everything is measured by gdp, including by the presence of nuclear weapons, this factor of influence through nuclear weapons will also affect the states and european countries, even if it is less than one percent. the decision on aid to ukraine raises the question of how it is possible to weaken the potential of the russian federation or the weakening of the military potential of the economic potential or can lead to a certain limit when our partners will act more

decisive or similar situation in principle suits our partners and everything will depend on how we will act on the field because this will also shape the presentation of the picture of interaction in europe and america in relation to us . as for the comparison of potentials, here you absolutely rightly noted that the size or the percentage of world gdp will be measured in percentages or billions of dollars, this is important, but it is unlikely to stop aggression; secondly, if it is a long-term conflict, such a conflict as is now in ukraine, since russia is somewhere with in the autumn of last year, it took a clear course for a war of attrition, so the economy is really important here, and in this case, if it were not for the external support

of ukraine, then russia would have won this war guaranteed, guaranteed. i am not saying that it is over, but that ukraine could not stand a long war of attrition without of foreign aid is an established fact, the third thesis, which i think is also important to understand , remember that nuclear blackmail or nuclear weapons work as a means of deterrence because somewhere at the end of 60 years after the caribbean crisis , such a consensus was reached regarding the fact that there can be no winner in a nuclear war because the potentials have reached the level of guaranteed mutual destruction. therefore, despite the fact that now the system that was then worked out in the late 70s and 80s, the system of deterrence of the international system of international

treaties is practically destroyed, it is still the understanding that you can threaten with nuclear weapons, but to a certain extent, because there cannot be a winner there, but there is also, i already talked about it, there is probably a clear understanding of the russian e-e military, including probably putin himself, that conventional means, the united states can inflict damage on russia no less than this, well, that is, for comparison with that, there are a dozen clean nuclear strikes, because, well , just imagine that the united states can make purchases of the territory of hundreds of tomahawks, and russia, realizing that they they cannot give advice, for example, to ukrainian drones there for single attacks

with the help of missile targets on the territory of the russian federation, that is, they have, i think , perfectly imagined what the end of this conflict will be, that it will be short-lived, what are the goals will be impressed by chance, you can also mention that i don’t know how true this is, but the program had such information at one time , the americans, when the russians there were actively threatening nuclear weapons today, they somewhere showed them such a draft plan as how the entire black sea fleet could be destroyed literally within well, if it is a very short time, as a response to such actions of russia, that is, russia, you understand, and i would like to ask then about such a thing as

security guarantees for ukraine, because this topic rose under the vilna site, then it gradually receded into the background. there were publications in foreign publications. what is there in the format of numerous countries? now this topic is being discussed, but countries see differently how these guarantees can be provided in ukraine. and are we talking about security guarantees at all? about the obligations of the g7 countries to ukraine and what is currently happening with these security guarantees. what is your vision , what changes are possible there, well, in the medium term around this topic. about the guarantees, it is obvious that full membership date only article 5 of nato at least prescribes these guarantees, you can talk about how

reliable they are as a topic of a separate conversation, because if you read the text of this short paragraph, we will see that there is no such obligation, i apologize according to the technology obligating that each member of the alliance the next day or on the same day is obliged to send their soldiers to the territory, that is, they will be obliged to help with everything they can, but direct requirements that the troops will be provided there there is also no but in any case it is a guarantee of course one minute literally one minute i would like you to tell about guarantees and obligations regarding obligations i think it is no less important nowadays more important because those obligations which to us, they are already written down in the declaration of the big seven, they are really quite valuable. now there will be a process

of formalizing these obligations with each of the countries. so, this can be equated somewhere with a guarantee, because i will say once again that the guarantee on the tonality of article 5 is, well, almost same what are these obligations, why will they be fulfilled? and one more thing, i would like to say that it is possible not entirely from the military sphere, but foreign investments are very reliable guarantees, if there were foreign investments in the territory of ukraine in the amount of hundreds of billions of dollars , then i guarantee you that the situation with the speed and volume of assistance in the event of aggression in the event of a threat by the capital of foreign investors , well, this would be such a catalyst that everything would be much faster and in a larger volume. therefore , we need your explanations for your facts comments, conclusion, our broadcast and our viewers, i will remind the audience that espresso was on the air, oleksiy melnyk, director of international programs of the center

, together, stay tuned to the espresso channel, there will be a lot of interesting information, ukraine-england on megogo, in the selection for euro 2024, our national team needs to tame three lions , turn on match 9 on september at 19:00 cheer for the main team of the country on megogo there are 10% discounts on kvadevit in podorozhnyk bam and oschad pharmacies there are discounts on voltaren forte and voltaren emulgel 20% in podorozhnyk bam and savings every day there are messages with collections of funds to help the military and

not only we collected more in one day than in the previous 8 years of volunteering. and donate is another manifestation of the struggle of ukrainians. the man threw it and he is in the army. the man and the donors definitely threw money. just publishes a list of needs and some people collect money in a creative way and they are like that a day later and a truck of bread has already left and i raffled it off at an auction, it went for 75 thousand hryvnias , just a lighter what else can’t they come up with ukrainians to help our military just drop it to us as much as you can just drop it to us just strongly to us about creative methods of accumulating funds to a documentary series from the ukrainianer project how we collect millions this saturday at 11:10 a.m. not

with the press events the most important events events happening just now they affect our lives, of course the news feed reports about them, but it is not enough to know what is happening, you need to understand antin borkovskyi and invitation experts soberly assess the events and analyze them modeling our near future every saturday at 1:00 p.m. with a repeat at 10:00 p.m. studio event with anton borkovskii nayspresso vasyl winter's big broadcast two hours of air time two hours of your time two hours to learn about the war and what the world is about 2 hours to be informed of economic news and new sports for two hours in the company of favorite presenters, presenters who have become likeable to many, as well as distinguished

guests of the studio, the events of the day in two hours, a large broadcast of vasyl zima, a project for smart and caring people, in the evening, we are looking for nayspresso 17-year-old nadiya shishkina, the girl disappeared on the first day of the full-scale war, and for more than a year and a half there was no news about her . i know that when it all started, the child was in the kherson region, in the city of nova kakhovka, which is still occupied. it is possible that this is the reason why the girl does not come out. to get in touch, so i'm asking everyone who sees me to look carefully at nadia's photo, remember this face, if anyone suddenly saw the girl or knows where she might be, don't delay and call us on the service hotline

magnolia child search by the short number 116,000 calls from any ukrainian mobile operator are free or write to the child search chatbot service in telegram and i will ask for a few minutes of your attention. for years, nothing is known about the photo of the missing girl, her great-aunt gave her to us , who actually lost contact with her niece and told me a simply terrible story of her disappearance. arina herself is from kyiv and when did it start during the war, she was with her father, mother, and younger sister in the village of severynivka, this is the buchan district of kyiv region, and in the first days of the war it was more or less calm there, so the family decided to stay in the village and not return to the capital, where rockets had already arrived there. at the beginning of march, when in buchan district the area was already full of occupiers in severynivka, and not only did enemy artillery start flying, of course people were hiding in basements, but it is hardly possible to say that it was safe there, so i

imagine with horror the feelings of arina and her nine-year-old sister the main thing was the parents, who perfectly understood that it was impossible to stay, but it was also very dangerous for you to look at severynivka in order to leave for the south, no matter how hard it was, you had to jump out onto the zhytomyr highway and only then turn to motyzhyn or kopyliv. and at that time, the highway was already full of enemy equipment the situation is deadlocked and the family still dares to escape together they were shot by mrs. iryna, who told me all this, the cousin of arina's father , that is, she is looking for her niece, because it turns out that the girl's parents were killed, their car was shot by the occupiers, the parents were killed

on the spot, we gave the village of motyzhina to her family, and the elder arina was wounded in the leg. they took her somewhere. no one knows where. it's scary to even imagine all this. it seems that the children didn't even have time to understand that their parents were dead, because orcs immediately ran up to the shot car and took the girls out. the sisters were put in different cars, the younger nine -year-old girl was later given by the occupiers to someone else 's family in the nearest village and now she is safe, but the elder arina, with a wounded leg, was taken to an unknown direction, imagine all this a nine-year-old girl told the adults that they were wounded, that their mother and father were somehow unconscious, and the orcs told them that they would be taken to the hospital. well, of course , no one took the sister anywhere. well, when they arrived, they also took them and put them in one the second car was put in the second. the fate of 16-year-old arina yatsyuk still remains unknown , so i ask everyone to look carefully at

arina's photo, remember her face and those big dark eyes. if anyone has seen the girl. if anyone knows where she might be now, don't delay, any information is important, who owns it, call us at the magnolia child tracing service at the short number 116,000 from any mobile phone, calls are free or write to the chatbot of the child tracing service in telegram, we have created a resource thanks to which you can report any - any crime against a child in any city at any time just go to the site and report and we will launch all possible mechanisms to punish

the criminal stopkramy.ua saturday at seven in the morning the 653rd day of the full-scale war between russia and ukraine began for your attention news on espresso anzhelika sezonenko works in the studio, a rescuer completed the work to eliminate the consequences of a rocket attack on sumy, as a result of the attack, four people were injured, one of them is in the hospital in a serious condition from zavaliv, we managed to save two people and a dog with an injury, so the next few i will spend days waiting in the clinic for the dead, fortunately, there are no victims. i will remind