[000:00:00;00] this is a political tinsel, and not for the performance of military tasks, because it is civil, and even more so, a half-politician, he will be engaged in civilian half -politics, eh, and i will repeat myself once more. sorry, there will be problems , we will deal with what happened in the ministry of defense to improve the document flow and no more. attempts to open up russian logistics in the south, what are the prospects, yes, because the military says they can bury themselves in concrete and sit there, but if they start having problems with the supply of bc fuel and lubricants , and it’s gone, it’s gone, it’s gone, then they won’t know how to get out of it

beaten and so we now have a war of logistics , that is, a task we have, even if it is slightly shifted, the destruction of the russians is the first task of any defending army , the destruction of the advancing army, namely, the intersection of logistics supply chains therefore, the first natural task is to disable the krymsky bridge. and since the main flow of military ammunition goes through it, both to crimea and to the kherson region, and the second task is the land corridor, crossing it, or at least an attempt to take under operational control, that is, under strikes, either by army artillery, or by er missiles, ryzh heimersom will reach any point of this land traffic, and then in er, even get on the railway that goes to tokmak from the side of volnovakha , chernihivka, this is already a big luck of this

offensive, after exiting and crossing the railway, we can already deliver army artillery from there to the land route from berdyansk to tokmak, that is, we will take it under control. well, with the help of the same mm hymers , we can already deliver it to the land road from melitopol this is rostov, mariupol, berdyansk - melitopol, after that, there are about 15, perhaps 20 km maximum left to complete such a task, and these are already these two tasks, that is, the conclusions of the structure of the crimean bridge and until after that how will we take under operational control eh land eh land eh already supply lines this already eh will lead the russians into the regime of such an operational encirclement , and the crimean part of the zaporozhye kherson region will be an operational so

-called operational encirclement because this is the task and it is worth it, and we will, in principle , carry it out for the russians, it will indeed be problematic to conduct hostilities, when there will be fuel, there will be no ammunition delivery, and on the big shoulders, uh, every kilometer every the tenth km increases the necessary amount of the same fuel, also ammunition, and there is about 500 km, that is, the shoulder of the stake is very long, because they are especially in the kherson region, in the kherson part of the zaporozhye region, they are in such a disadvantageous position , we will use it. thank you, colonel, for i will remind our tv viewers of this extremely interesting and honest conversation that i did on the espresso broadcast, a colonel of the armed forces of ukraine worked for them in the reserve, a military

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he described very well at the time boris nimtsov was killed in the first place . in any case, three uh, three obvious to everyone. as it seems to me today, the circumstances that determine the contours of the nearest and immediate future, the first - that's what's small. who doubts that while putin is in the kremlin, uh , the war will continue and putin himself will not be able to end the war uh, his immediate surroundings are now he himself. well, how would he imagine a war machine and a militarization machine of a return to peace ? none of them can imagine any development.

of the international tribunal sitting er, therefore , how could they themselves not be the sources of er, some kind of turn to the other side in this war? the european union will not change its position regarding support for ukraine, nor the united states and the november elections in the usa . an alliance that is independent of change the government will act in the direction of supporting ukraine simply because as boris johnson wrote in his well-known column simply because putin's victory is complete, and the war was completely unrehearsed, er, a list of what positions the future of the european and global world in general global security and the third important pound included

here is that there are different estimates of the resources that have the cream or to introduce the war further this is the account that the sanctions are weak there , that the west is not able to cut off the sanctions there, bypassing the sanctions, and so on. russian nomics and the russian management system is only unfolding before our eyes, and as the best confirmation of this, we are also beautiful, and what is happening now in the generator is what it is. this is not an independent evidence of some administrative management it's the collapse of management putin's models, he is not in the confident position in which he was permissible in the 14th year, and when he annexed crimea, he himself is in the second perfect position in

relation to his own elite now a-a and er-er there have never been such large-scale what kind of shocking events do you have in this political system he has, where he successfully destroyed everything, now he has such a situation that the whole world can see and the situation during the war he has , as it were, a large group of generals accused of disloyalty in something, this is investigating co the fsb, the military prosecutor's office, and so on, and in ours they are the generals, that's why we're talking about resources. now, let's say the clarity of management is part of the resources, because not only economic resources determine the war, but also human resources in this sense. and as for economic resources, then after all, the cream makes a good one, so to speak , precisely with a bad game, in reality , such a portrait of barterization of the economy happens quite quickly, that is, an inevitable withdrawal from the dollar and the euro, and from global currencies

, significantly complicates the entire economic коммуникации переоритация э-э этой ээ э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э э this is the third fact, the key story. why are we talking about the mutiny on the part of prigozhin, that it did not end with swan lake? that is, everyone expected that certain actions would be held , instead, prigozhin was buried with certain even with honors, putin is now banking like this, and we can see that the attempt to curb his appetites or criminal fantasies has also failed , that is, i think that the generals have decided well, let it be. but as it will be, we will go . but the way it is going, and no one wants to follow the path, so to speak

beautiful generals do not like to take risks, the story is not over yet i would say so ten-year-old, two-year-old, all these generals and in general they are all wrong-wing elites, it is as if in business together with putin in all relations prigozhyn actually produced such a powerful explosion within the system, because they were all with him and he was connected to them , he had a large mandate from putin, uh, well, we are only compatible with kadyrov, even if it turned out to be more, and he would have a mandate than, say , ramzan and kadyrov, and at the same time, he would somehow undermine all of this inside him, and such a strange explosion occurred, and putin from him until the end. he didn't get out, although he really did. we don't even know until the end what it will be . how will it affect the military leadership in the future

. in the old way, he had to balance yes, how would he leave the parishioners by entering the top military leadership, so that they would not irritate the army, yes, they would irritate the special services. healing system it is obvious that there are two, so to speak, well, or 2.5 very good ones, but one scenario - this is true if putin just disappears from the political scene, just disappear. no, but how dynamically it develops in the last, in any case, six months of the situation that i would not exclude the fact that everything will overheat so much that in six months it will become possible, this is one scenario . and then, of course, the most different will arise

the prospects of which are not available now, because then it is possible and there is a different degree of longing for transformation of internal foreign policy and war and war. the second good scenario consists in the fact that this is the moment when the entire russian political and social system collides like that only at the start transferring the war to one's territory. and it is necessary to say that what is satisfied. well, it is moving successfully, that is, quickly, very much , in the course of three months, such a thing happened as if it had spread, that is, if 6 months ago, the conversation went there, well, there are some things in episodes in two or three russian provinces, now this is a message every day , that is, the drone war has acquired and not only drones and the war in general, as it were. the russian system, and we don’t know what will happen in three months in this regard. all we

see is an increasing trend on the uh . and so on, he will strengthen his work on air defense and he does it, but eh, nevertheless , we can clearly see that this is the second front , conditionally speaking, there is a front, eh, literally, wars on earth. for the liberation of ugu in the territory, well, if the second front sees this war on the territory of russia, and he is acting strongly enough now, mmm, and he can definitely lead to such a thing, because putin's own entourage will put the question before him, as well and he himself can begin to ask this question, what does it mean what further should be followed by this, that is, what is the further course? why, because if the war spreads to russian

territory like this, the kremlin will not be able to continue the same rhetoric indefinitely. against neo - nazism and so on the great patriotic war, and then they start again to start their rant about the fact that their motherland is in danger and so on, but on the other hand, we understand that the current war is already in full swing and i don't know if they have enough internal strength to reformat the goals war, because when they called the war and aggression against ukraine as something like that - that's one story, and here when they start talking about an existential war, well, we regularly

read a drunken and not a drunken bear yes, this is an existential war, and this is already something else, it is not yet certain , and i have to say here that as i see the kremlin now, they will not withstand any essential war, although he himself warms it up to this level, i completely agree with this, we see everything because the rhetoric is bearish, as if it is a bearish warning, but the fact is that the kremlin will not withstand such a war, and even the demand for it means that it is used here. well, it is not a conventional weapon , there is a nuclear one, or even a biological weapon, that is to fight and mean to stop this war on its territory, it is as if radically different in terms of its capabilities from what stalin had there during our nuclear blackmail and even khrushchev was there, putin has to a large extent already lost the possibility of

blackmail with nuclear weapons, this is certainly very strongly felt in the international atmosphere , because at the time of the confrontation between the two systems, this is all much more extensive and mysteriously sounded than now when the possibility of these tools of war is in the hands of putin, it has become incredibly weak, so i think that the expansion of this war on the territory of the russian territory will lead to the fact that the kremlin has overheated. a society that somehow serves the war. it overheats on this. many people correctly write that on television, it is possible for individuals to raise the degree of this distension war , but i will ensure that we are mobilized here in a special war. given the moment is such an impression and he will not be able to cope at all, so to speak, even with such large-scale

organizational actions as the big mobilization oleksandr , they stopped steaming, they all remind me of such a collective director of the museum of the second world war in russia, more precisely , the great patriotic absolute ram, which corresponds to the same second historical analiabet putin still can't name elementary numbers and this is the director of the so-called central museum and putin is sitting there pouting at him for him but it's about quality management circuit, but on the other hand, we understand that, as you rightly noted, this does not affect the decision of the bet on the decision of the criminal bunker, well, and accordingly, we are waiting for three genes вопрос відветическом что что пролотинк вспаском басту, i don't know a submarine in the moscow river that drones that cover the urals well, it’s free here, that’s what it is now, as if there were two such big facts

, that’s the first factor, eh, the essential thing is that the puck was driven by putin’s taming to inspect the new land, the nuclear weapons test site , and of course you’ve read everything, who is doing it? topics how the cream is not going to use nuclear weapons, but it is going to conduct a test and it will be some new step that will also be an element , so to speak , a designation . it will be collected and collected so say what he calls the word as it were global alliance is the struggle with putin he will react to it and this first second is in my opinion the most important factor here it seems to many it may not be very significant

but i think that this is of decisive importance. and here is the restructuring of the position of a large number of countries that are not yet involved. yes, he has a great deal to clearly isolate putin's political isolation. eastern asia a-a and eh, what is going on is the struggle to change the position of such an important group of countries in southeast asia and eh for redefining the position of the countries of latin america, this is all very important, this is very important , in order to continue without bleeding, this is it the second, uh, the second point and the third point say that attention is hidden to the black sea very much and not business, yes, because it is necessary to take an escalation of military actions in the black sea , most likely. and if so, then putin cannot achieve military success in any way er, this is a fundamental moment now, that is, no matter how putin says that the ukrainian offensive there is effective, and they are not moving anywhere, it does not change anything about the uh, the whole picture

of the war compared to the fact that the creams lost the possibility of a general military initiative does exist, and there is a rumor that there will be an increase there to a million to 9 million putin's army, here he is , you can use nuclear weapons, but in reality they warmly look at the picture of the war and understand well that he does not have how many of us are putin now ? people are there, this ego will surround him, and that’s where karaganov is. it’s easier. the experts didn’t write that ukraine should be destroyed at all. yes, or somehow there is something in this horn, there is no longer an instrument for this, and uh, in this , it means that this is such a uh, such a tragedy of the 24th year, because uh, putin can't stop the war, but tools he has further to achieve the result of how he ego formulas he has no, this is a fundamental moment, the level of absorption of corpses, we understand that there is

such a crude sociological characteristic of a certain society, and we understand that well , the task of the kremlin is the task of putin to convince , first of all, the west that they can throw in furnace of war million two three well, we understand that at one time in the west we were shocked by the attitude of the russian command towards the lives of russian soldiers, so we understand that in the kremlin they started to have fun, they used prisoners , they used contract workers from some remote mountain villages and yes, but still they come to that what about 250 or 300,000? you can't hide it just like that, but still there is no social feedback in russia, there is no such political system from below, nothing is happening and will not happen but this is hope there is no society will simply stop fighting. it is not the same , it will be ready to support those who take the initiative to replace putin, but this society itself, in their

state of this, no one has been displaced, will make some kind of radical transition to another state, but at the same time still , they can’t estimate this growing fatigue , you understand that drones can be played by two sides, not only the russian federation can make daily raids on our civilian infrastructure, that is, it flies in response is arriving, is arriving, and new ones are crawling into russia itself, and here are some things . well , the population and the generals could be forced to sober up. did not note this, this is an important point, after all, in such a situation, the population, including the mopskov region, generally asks where did it come from, how did it come , there was no answer, that is, the kremlin is in a position to publicly

answer the population, and this is of course, but first большой чтение produced one raid on moscow-sit later, as it were, on the pskov airfield, and here the last word has not been said , it's obvious that here, eh. such a scene is a hoax from possibilities, including hardware ones, that is, uh, facebook ca n’t cover it, there’s not enough strength, it means that the personnel who are all of putin’s special services are allowed, they are all abandoned there to master the occupied territories, that means accordingly, when the task is given to find out where drones are launched from the russian territory, they are not able to find the ends of their small ones, that is, they are busy with the second one, at the same time, it is necessary to deal with it, and the fact is that in

the putin announced that it is so large-scale that he does not have enough specialists, uh, not in the field of special forces, not in the field of actual military operations, this war means that it exceeds the capabilities of the russian federation, simply speaking, therefore, uh, every the next successful eh hoty here is the war from the side of ukraine, it certainly has a very strong influence on the situation of the university . there is no doubt that it is effective and, in fact , everyone who looks at it eh i can clearly see , of course, by the reaction, we see everything by the reactions of many european american experts who you actually watch say yes, well, there, that’s what, well, it works, it works , and i think it understands it. they can't come up with ideas. even that is, someone would come out and say, we know where the war

is going to go from russia, but it doesn't exist, and if it doesn't , it's a routine, it will still lead to the mosel in the horizon, and here in the horizon of one year, there is no ousting of the kremlin, that's will sound too strong, but it will lead to a very strong strengthening of ukraine and to no and to such a deadlock and such a deadlock isolation eh means russia even from itself and this will be an approximate picture, unfortunately i have to finish our conversation that we are grateful oleksandr, this is an extremely interesting and informative conversation, and i want to remind our tv viewers that oleksandr morozov, a political scientist and a teacher at charles university, has worked for them now