[000:00:00;00] well, no one will be able to stop ukraine. well, i mean, where melitopol is, there is jankoi , after all . well, unfortunately, they are slowing down the supply of weapons because they don't understand how it will be if ukraine wins quickly , they just don't understand what it will be. and in the end there is still such a risk that suddenly it will happen like with the leopards, but they came across these fortifications and certifications revealed that they are not so effective and in the end the commercial value of leopards falls, something needs to be changed there, the same can happen with airplanes, they were provided but the pilots were not trained a little or something was not added and it will turn out to be not so effective , there are always these risks, here they are

they want to minimize risks, they see that ukraine is already gnawing away well, it is gnawing away well that 's right here unfortunately cynical, but we don't have any other partners and there is no partner more powerful than the united states the united states can do a lot but the interests do not always coincide. well, then i will not ask for passports, i will read about the european partners. does this mean that the slow advancement of ukraine or the slow retelling of the russian potential continued over time actually suits our nato partners because at the current stage their concept of containment is their capabilities to conduct hostilities, they are inadequate to the challenges that currently exist on the battlefield and now they have a certain temporal such a cantblanche to a certain temporal margin to ensure internally transformation to reach a different

level of combat readiness and as long as we are fighting and in fact act as the main outpost for the protection of european interests during this time nato can prepare for real hostilities and the longer we are fighting the easier it is for them to prepare, well, to a certain extent, it seems to me that there are two of the main elements of such considerations that it is very difficult to enumerate the first well, in the united states it is clear because there are clear terms, well, this is generally one parameter - it is not very fast to have time managed to do, well, launch a certain process and spin up certain processes , and secondly, after all, everything must end before the moment that this war does not turn into such an endless afghan war. that is, this is also an undesirable scenario. that is why it is necessary to end one day , preferably with the victory of ukraine, but it is necessary to understand that ukraine itself will be able to do so within the framework of what is given to it, not without straining and without

putting everything on the map, that's why i think the united states has such a limitation, the elections of some of the main ones must be resolved or in in europe, there are other processes. i think they are more economical. i think i would say that now for the united for europe, the main thing is how quickly poland will take over the functions of germany against the lessons of the cold war , so how are the lessons of the cold war, the period of the cold war was such a situation when germany was an outpost west germany there were the main groups there, the concentration of forces there should have been the main battles if what happened

. poland and even talks about nuclear weapons in poland. i would say we should give poland time to become a new one. well, take this step to become such a new defense defense, well, an outpost , i don't even know, the center of gravity, even the center of gravity, the defense of europe, nato, eu, well, how much, i don't think that we have to wait until poland deploys all its programs, but i think if we give poland one more year to build up , well, they will be grateful to us, but at what cost, mr. russia, well, he asked only half of the questions he always prepared, more questions well unfortunately, we don't have time, thank you very much for your comments, for your vision, the situation is very interesting to our viewers , why should i remind you that the press class was actually broadcast by oleksiy ezhyk, an expert of the national institute of strategic studies, and then we continue

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nine presenters, journalists, experts, opinion leaders in real time about the most relevant events through the prism of war in the author's projects on espresso, this is the 23rd separate rifle battalion of the armed forces of ukraine. now we are already in such a significant performance. wedged in the defense of the orks in donetsk region and is holding positions right now, the military needs our help, the fighters need drones to lead the development and destroy the enemy on the approach, we will save each drone - it is lost to the enemy and saved the life of our warrior, join the gathering, let's show our soldiers that we continue our program next to them, and now we are joined by oleksiy melnyk, director of foreign policy and international security programs , razumkova center, everyone. congratulations, glad to see and hear. congratulations, mr. serhii, we continue our conversation. i would like not to continue. in just a minute, we finished our conversation with oleksiy ezhyak, an expert

at the research center and institute, and there we talked about the situation on the front line , the pace of progress, the pace of aid, and he said two theses that i would like to take with you there as a seed for further discussion, firstly, that the rate of aid provision, the conditions of aid provision from the united states, one way or another, depends on the political realities that exist in the united states, and from the point of view actions on the part of european countries, one way or another, this is slow advancement of ukraine or slow aid to ukraine. one way or another, it depends on when the alliance itself will gain strength to be able to engage in real hostilities with the russian federation and how long, relatively speaking poland will not gain strength and become a country like germany during the cold war. what do you think

actually depends on the pace of the amount of aid and how much these political factors in europe and political factors in the united states affect how we receive help, how are we currently forming our combat operations, how do we depend on our partners, such a broad question , but let's try to answer it as succinctly as possible, first of all, regarding those barriers that still exist, first of all, you mentioned absolutely it is fair to say that this is political will and in my opinion it is precisely the lack of a vision of ukrainian victory as we see it, plus what a warning that has been repeatedly expressed to prevent a direct conflict between russia and the north atlantic

alliance. actually, they play such a powerful restraining role in making political decisions. it already then affects the speed of delivery of which weapons, where there are its own factors, technical technological factors , bureaucratic factors. that is, it is a whole complex, but if it were to remove the first restrictions, i.e. if the united states stopped being guided by the so-called policy of escalation management, if they somehow , let's say, revised the very red lines on the drawing

. well, then probably the whole process would move faster. this is the second kind. they mentioned that nato seems to want you now in order to better prepare. i ’m not sharing the thesis , because now it’s just a matter of imagining. people sitting in the kremlin are detached from reality, this is exactly what they or what they clearly understand, if their teeth were broken, figuratively speaking, ukraine, then entering into a war with the north atlantic alliance, well, this is really a matter of three days, and in russia, russia is russian the army will be simply devastating, there and there they understand it. i think that the alliance is definitely not going to fight. well, they are not simply not considered with this, but at the same time

, are there any conditional options for a black swan of such a large scale that one way or another will force nato countries to join in combat actions because i prefer the events there with the missiles in poland then with the shaheds in romania , on the one hand we see that nato is trying to find such an answer, it is not irritating for the russian federation, as it seems to us, and on the other hand, we see that they can there may be various hybrid actions on the part of the russian federation, which in one way or another require a military challenge and a military response from the alliance, or are you not considering such options, and the minimum of such black swans is, well, there is a fairly insignificant black swan, and it is by definition black because it is impossible for him to predict it, that's why, of course, since they appear from time to time, no one can rule it out. but

again, based on this term itself , it cannot be predicted, but we can, in principle, predict a scenario that can lead to there are also synonyms of such a phenomenon as the black swan , let's say which ones are used. the terms are, for example, strategic . corporal here. i think in this case it is a more appropriate term. it basically means that at some grassroots level. a corporal or a junior or senior officer can make a mistake or an initiative decision that then has strategic consequences. examples of this we have seen, for example, how uh, one of them is when russian planes attacked an american drone. and there

uh, in principle, there were literally it is possible that there is a mm away from a serious incident because the actions of the russian pilot were extremely unprofessional . and the fact that he did not kill himself attacking this drone is just that, well, he was born in a shirt, so to speak. so if there was the crash of the plane, the death of the crew, this could be a step towards escalation. but again, even if we recall when turkey shot down a russian plane, we will also say the justification . so how far did it enter the airspace of turkey? everyone there already expected that russian tanks would now meet the turkish ones, but this did not happen because there are certain mechanisms when the leaders of the

allied countries can restrain the worst-case scenario at any time with one an important condition if each of the parties is not interested in such a conflict. and to date, neither nato nor russia are interested in direct military action , therefore black swans are possible. let's say put the brakes on and prevent it, well, then if we are talking about such effects of a corporal or a black swan, er, against the background of this , the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons to belarus, the placement of a tact of characteristic warheads, this is, in principle, an increase rates of risk rates on the part of the russian federation. then what is the purpose of these actions from the point of view of the expectations of the russian federation itself

. i have several versions of why putin did this . well, in addition to scaring western leaders once again with the fact that he can use tactical there may be such a version of nuclear weapons. we cannot rule it out , although it sounds like such an incredible version or an incredible scenario. at some point , putin seems to use lukashenka in order for him to launch a nuclear attack on his nose with his own hands. strike either in one of the nato countries or on ukraine, that is, creating a certain provocation , and then lukashenko was this bomb, his pilot or his missile, this bomb, uh, that bomb hit the territory of ukraine, a lower

risk for russia itself, for belarus or nato territory but it cannot be ruled out because after all that russia is doing after or in the background of everything that lukashenko is carrying when he considers himself against the following sentences, that is, even such absolutely incredible scenarios cannot be ruled out, but rather than anything certain moment putin was given a pretty clear signal. well, maybe he was even described that his. actually, we have already uncovered some back there, that's why i don't think that in the near future there will be some continuation of this history of practical weapons on the territory of belarus. and to whom are we talking about the potential to russia, you are really talking about the fact that russia is not ready to fight with nato countries, because the gdp of nato countries there

seems to be 50-60% of the world's, and russia's potential there is up to 2% at most, that is, they are not economically comparable, but not only in terms of potential everything is measured by gdp, including by the presence of nuclear weapons, this factor of influence through nuclear weapons will also affect the states and european countries, even if it is less than one percent. the decision on aid to ukraine raises the question of how it is possible to weaken the potential of the russian federation or the weakening of the military potential of the economic potential or can lead to a certain limit when our partners will act more decisive or similar situation, in principle, suits our partners and everything will depend on how we will act on the field , because this will also shape the presentation

of the picture of interaction in europe and america in relation to us. percentage of the world gdp, whether it is measured in percentages or billions of dollars, it is important, but it is unlikely to stop the aggressor, secondly, if it is a long-term conflict, such a conflict as is now in ukraine, since russia is somewhere with in the autumn of last year, it took a clear course for a war of attrition, so the economy is really important here, and in this case, if it were not for external support of ukraine, then russia would have

won this war guaranteed, guaranteed. without external aid, this is an accomplished fact, the third thesis, which i think is also important to understand , remember that nuclear blackmail or nuclear weapons work as a means of deterrence, because somewhere at the end of 60 years after the caribbean crisis , such a consensus was reached regarding the fact that there can be no winner in a nuclear war because the potentials have reached the level of guaranteed mutual destruction. therefore, despite the fact that now the system that was then worked out in the late 70s and 80s, the system of deterrence of the international system of international treaties is practically destroyed, it is still the understanding that you can threaten with nuclear weapons, but only to a certain extent, because

there cannot be a winner himself, but there is also, i have already talked about it, there is probably a clear understanding in the russian e-e military, including probably putin himself, that conventional means, the united states can inflict damage on russia no less than this for comparative to that, er, there are some ten or significant nuclear strikes, because well, just imagine that er, the united states can fire volleys of hundreds of tomahawks, and russia, realizing that they are not can give advice, for example , to ukrainian drones there for single attacks with the help of missile targets on the territory of the russian federation, that is, they have a good idea of ​​what the end of this

conflict will be, that it will be short-lived, what are the goals will be affected by chance, you can also mention that i don’t know how true this is, but the program had such information since the time when the russians were actively threatening nuclear weapons, they showed them somewhere such a draft of a plan as to how the entire black sea fleet could literally be destroyed within a very short, well, 500 very short time as a response to such actions of russia, that is, russia, you understand and i would like to ask then about such a thing as security guarantees for ukraine because this topic was raised under the vilna site then it gradually receded into the background, there were publications in foreign publications. what is there

in the format of jysaven countries? this topic is currently being discussed, but countries see differently how these guarantees can be provided in ukraine. the big seven in front of ukraine and what is happening now with these security guarantees. what is your vision , what changes are possible there, well , in the medium-term perspective around this topic. membership date only article 5 of nato at least prescribes these guarantees, you can talk about how reliable they are as a topic of a separate conversation, because if you read the text of this short paragraph, we will see that the

obligations are not so binding, sorry for the technology what do you think? every member of the alliance is obliged to send their soldiers to the territory on the following day, that is, they will be obliged to help in whatever way they can, but there is no direct requirement that troops will be provided there either, but in any case it is guarantee now literally one minute literally one minute i would like you to tell us about the guarantees of the obligations regarding the obligations i think it is no less important today , more important because those obligations that we have already written down in the declaration of the big seven they are really quite valuable, now there will be a process of formalizing these obligations with each of the countries. so, this can be equated somewhere with a guarantee, because i will say once again that the guarantees

for that, even article 5, are almost the same as these obligations of what they will to be fulfilled, that is, and one more thing, as i would like to say that it is possible not entirely from the military sphere, but foreign investments are very reliable guarantees, if there were foreign investments in the territory of ukraine in the amount of hundreds of billions of dollars, then i guarantee you that the situation with the speed and volume of provision help in the event of aggression in the event of a threat by the capital of foreign investors. this would be such a catalyst that it would all be much faster and in a larger volume. therefore, we need your explanations for your professional comments for including our broadcasts i will remind our viewers that on the air, when we had espresso, oleksiy melnyk, director of international programs

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away of russian terrorists, a unique special operation tit, let's run and take them , evacuation along the perimeter became how military intelligence managed to lure a russian pilot with a helicopter to our side no one wants to see war. when will ukraine win this? it's a matter of time. documentary shot down russian pilots . watch today at 10:00 p.m. not with the press. this is the 23rd separate rifle battalion of the armed forces of ukraine. the lines are holding the defense, the battalion is wedged in the defense of the orks in donetsk region and is holding its position right now, the military needs our help, the fighters need drones to lead the development and destroy the enemy even on the approach, we take a shot

, every drone is lost to the enemy and preserved the life of our soldier, join the gathering, let's show our fighters that we are with them. greetings, dear tv viewers, and for your attention, the news every year on the second sunday of september remembers the victims of the forced eviction from lemkivshchyna to tsyan kholmshchyna, southern podlasie, lyubachivshchyna, and western boykivshchyna , september 9, 1944, the ussr and poland concluded an agreement on the so-called mutual exchange of population ukrainians were forcibly evicted from their ethnic territories to the ukrainian ssr and poles from ukraine to poland then about 700,000 people were deprived of their homes let's remember 24 countries opened their national investigations of russia's war crimes against ukraine this was reported by