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greetings to you viewers choose ukrainian ones view from espresso, congratulations friends mykola veresen vitaliy portnikov autobot health to all thank you ukrainians for their trust espresso works for we are coming back to you and here is a fresh message from yuri ignat regarding today's attack on khmelnytskyi, i quote khmelnytskyi was attacked again, it is clear that the enemy is looking for where the commander hid our bombers after the events that took place recently in our sea near the crimea so crimea and boris babin doctor of law, the representative of the president of ukraine in the autonomous republic of crimea in the 17th and 18th years are already in touch with us glory to ukraine in russia glory to the heroes good day sir borisovich, we understand that there are two such powerful attacks in a row, namely the ship repair plant in dry docks minus

the ship minus the submarine well, and then the newly created base of the ppu with the s-40 triumph and absolutely accurate destruction and it speaks of well, we have quite seriously modified weapons, including ukrainian -made ones, etc. well, for our part, we are analyzing what this gives us in terms of the strategic plan for the liberation of crimea. and how does the crimean occupation group, according to you , react to this, how did they read it all and what are the trends you see, well, in general, the crimean customers and collaborators currently have even more problems, in fact, even than pampered, it ’s difficult and kind , but they have fuel there. there are no tanks for the civilian population, and they neglected the civilian population , but there are still some remnants of the economy

, and now this is the main headache for them. they generally don't prepare petargs, they don't see anything, nothing happened, they just get hysterical that they will put all the petargs who posted videos on the internet, so we can't even say anything about sevastopol, they have such a beginning of consciousness that here is this criminal amuses, sort of, sort of asked for additional air defense that their planes were somewhere in the wrong place at that moment, well, you know that. they are trying to explain something. the question is that what i am saying is ukrainian military experts, this episode is characteristic of several indicators, first of all, sevastopol - this is the key base of the occupation fleet of the criminal and of course air defense. well, according to any textbooks there should be as much as possible. so if they do not provide this air defense, then this means the absence of other local ones

as well. they can't help. in addition, there was panic, there was real panic during these events, they also can't calculate it, and the main thing is precisely in the strategic dimension, well, in addition to the fact that this is really the first time in history when a submarine has been hit like this. thus, you know this in relation to any you already know analysts and the military, this is even more interesting than even the flooding of moscow, because after all, the cruise ships were flooded before, and here you know this know-how, so here is the main factor , which is geopolitical, strategic for kyiv of ukraine this is the issue of the aggressor's lack of ability to control shipping in the black sea. today, the aggressor is blackmailing the whole world with his so-called demands regarding the unblocking of swifts there, the lifting of sanctions, and their blackmail is based on the fact that they are making demands.

in the northern part of the black sea, as with any terrorist and hostage, if the hostage does not make sense to enter into negotiations with him, if the actions of the armed forces of ukraine are the main development department of other specialized structures of the security service ukraine proves that there is no complete control that ukrainian special forces land on boyka towers inside the waters of the black sea, if ukrainian special forces successfully save their own comrade in the middle of the black sea, and here i am not even talking about a humanitarian choice, i will remind you of a little-known fact that last year , when active actions under kherson under mykolaiv fighting russia lost several planes like the black sea and the pilots ejected they were alive they kp-cultivated the water was relatively warm but

the aggressor was unable to save any of them alive. they caught them. after a few days, such good salted 200s are some kind of marker of the technical capacity of the russian fleet, and this is also assessed very well by analysts. the same applies to sevastopol in dry terms, it is a pro-front place becomes for the russian occupation fleet a classic graveyard of sunken ships. so they only have to attach new dies to the corresponding wailing wall. so, even under these conditions, there is still something to say about what they want it is very, very difficult to exercise control over the northern part of the black sea, all of them see, all of them understand, uh, we understand that 10 years ago, crimea was one crimea, today it is another, uh , even before the beginning of the invasion. i am talking about this invasion, which actually took place from crimea at the beginning in the 14th year, it was believed that there is a lot of russian-speaking population in crimea, that they have their own views, and how has

crimea changed over these 10 years, that it represents today, the opinions of the population, the views of what they want and who or what they are waiting we remember that already yesterday there were statements that the credit for the success of these operations in the last two days also belongs to the local partisans or to those forces of resistance to the movement that kyiv supports for hours there for weeks, but very tezoo first , the crimean resistance movement exists, this is an objective reality , secondly, about ukrainian sentiments in crimea, they have always been under conditions of large-scale aggression, they appear brighter and more vivid due to two reasons: the first is a crisis. everyone understands that

if not now, then when the road everyone understands that everything will change, it won't be like this after a large-scale aggression, it won't happen after february 24. last year, roll back to the decade of occupation , the situation in crimea will change as a result of the great war of ukrainian victory, everyone understands that and it will change in 10 years, but the measurement goes to the month, yes, this is the same, it inspires people, this is the first thing, this is the main thing, then, in general, in relation to the population and the mood of the population in any region of ukraine, there are different moods of the population in the occupied territories, of course , to separate two things, the first thing is the mood the population of ukrainian citizens is different from the attitudes of the colonizers, because of the colonizers, there is a lot of talk about hundreds of thousands of people who are concentrated in simferopol, who already make up almost half of the population of sevastopol at the expense of the military and so on, that's the opinion of the colonizers, of course, not who, well, the opinion of the colonizers, of course, no one is interested in us at the moment, i am interested in only one thing: how will we

deport these people according to international human rights standards, because believe me, this is a very, very huge operation that will require enormous efforts, which, unfortunately, have not yet been have begun and here we expect a lot from the relevant decisions of the civil authorities - this is currently not the military evidence, this is currently being prepared by the ministries and agencies for accounting mechanisms for such appropriate procedures, because this is a question and of course, few people are interested in their opinion regarding the population with ukrainian passports and ukrainian citizenship, of course they have different positions, but i will repeat that there are always people in crimea who actively supported the aggressor . they were a minority in the 14th year. luhansk, just as an example in the 22nd year, was occupied melitopol or temporarily kherson or izyum, it should be understood that the question of the mood of the population should not be evaluated as a key dimension of de-occupation, where the occupation is a question for

the ukrainian army of other structures , including diplomats, special services, the economy , and so on, reintegration and after de-occupation, there must be a very difficult thorny path, but again, i would first of all operate there on the issue of us getting into people's brains . the form of responsibility, the form of economic activity, because there will be a very important transitional period, where, let's just say it directly, of course , ukrainian legislation from the first day of work in crimea is full -fledged. well, let's be heavy -handed. such a flashing factor. and it reminds so much of this kerch bridge and some kind of flashing every twenty or so hours they close it again at the same time. if cotton also

appears, then it is the western crimea and not the eastern part of kerch at all. what's up with that? the crimean bridge, because on federal channels they show that one lane of the highway is already working in two directions, this is such a reportage, but more and more often it is closed in connection with some kind of aerial alarm, which in reality seems to be nothing, what is going on there two things should be understood, firstly, after the first explosions, last year, russia stopped the illegal transportation of trucks through the crimean bridge, and this is a key factor, because today they are forced to deliver these goods by the railway, which is also not there, not in good condition, by which ferries they don't have much, and the so-called land corridor through mariupol-melitopol near the war zone is such a huge cross on the coffin of crimean logistics, this is the first thing, and regarding these concerns themselves, i understand that they

simply have manua after the price of cotton due to a number of factors, experts understand why are they forced to block the crimean bridge during any, let's say, situation on the entire crimean peninsula near it? well , let them block it here, in principle, let them train anyway, well, the result will be very, very predictable, they understand it thank you for your inclusion and analysis of the situation. boris babin, doctor of law, the representative of the president of ukraine in the autonomous republic of crimea in 17-18 was in touch with us. pavlo martyshev, they are in contact with us, they are in ukraine, mr. pavla, yes. good day, we are playing . slava. well, it seems that the bulgarians thought so , they listened from there, analyzed the numbers and

realized that ukrainian grain is not like that terrible and not as threatening as this, uh, since april, all our neighbors have been drawing that they are threatened with total economic, some kind of horror, the ruin of farmers , and so on . rests on today, the 15th, we have to hear something from the european structures, yes, there is indeed a discussion about whether to continue the ban on the import of ukrainian grain and not only grain , by the way, the poles, for example, are very afraid even of dairy products. yes, the bulgarians and romanians are understood that in essence ukrainian grain is not so terrible that this price reduction what is happening now is this global phenomenon

and this is a global phenomenon in essence because the big one is affecting the whole planet and indeed, if we are talking about romania, then since may of this year ukrainian grain does not enter the domestic market of romania, it goes exclusively through transit, and they do not like the competition for port capacity, that is, from the side of ukrainian grain, but still, in reality , there is nothing so critical in ukrainian grain, so it seems that this is a positive dynamic once again, i told bulgaria and the mood in romania, will we be able to send, sell, export our grain this year , and what it plans to do, and, accordingly, also make money from it, because the country

needs money now very much, you know, it is not a fact, to export grain because we have crop estimates, they have been increasing for the past few months and we are quite uh, we are lucky with the weather this season, we have about 80 million tons of grain and oilseeds, we expect this for comparison in the 22nd year, it is somewhere around 72 million tons plus we still have transitional stocks from the past season. that is, we need the danube to be fully operational. and this is actually not so easy in the conditions of the drone attacks on izmail and reni . we need that there are no obstacles with the railway. i am talking about poland in particular, including the program, because in romania's problem is the slow logistics inside romania. it is quite weak there and ukrzaliznytsia can deliver much more grain to the borders with romania. that is why the capacity of these transshipment points on the border with romania

is occupied by about 40%. that's why romania is everything remains a promising direction, that is why it is not a fact that we will be able to bring out our export potential there. well, somewhere around 60 million tons. yes, and it is possible that we still need a little bit , we need deep water. i am talking about the sea, that is, we need to look at alternative ways, how to combine the danube with the territorial waters of romania is the same so that we spill the grain of zbarazh on a ship in the open sea, and if we go back to today, what do you personally expect ? what will the decision of the european union on the export of ukrainian agricultural products sound like well, this is such a complex question. what do you expect from the europeans ? and what will the europeans be able to do about the two decisions that have already been announced

, the polish decision announced by their prime minister that they will block the import of ukrainian grain and agricultural products into the country? i understand that e transit should not be moved and an even tougher announcement came from e-e collective bodies and from hungary that they, on the contrary , are even expanding e-e the number of bans from september 15 regarding ukrainian agricultural products , so what does europe say and what will europe say hungary and poland actually have a rather difficult situation and brussels itself does not yet know how to react to it because the farmer lobby is strong not only at the national level, it is stronger not at the european level, we are talking about the common agricultural policy of the european union which there since 1956, in fact, it was not aimed at such protectionism of internal markets and they protected the interests of farmers, so it seems

to me that there will be some kind of hybrid option, yes, there will be transit, most likely, through poland , including because we see the potential of polts of ports in the baltic countries is about 10 million tons per month, which will be very useful for us, but i would like to see subsidies to compensate for logistics costs for our farmers, because we do not have a sea and we would have to spend at least 37 for 20-30 dollars 100 nai so that our farmers have already gone into the plus for such basic grain crops, but the fact that they will open their own markets for us, well , maybe this will not be completely, but they just mentioned about subsidizing about that that the costs

are actually for the transportation of our food is growing very, very significantly due to the fact that we cannot send all this from the odesa ports, we cannot send it from our rooster as before, can you give some figures in percentages about how much we in t- can lose this year actually because of the increase in prices transportation due to the fact that the ukrainian south is actually blocked in terms of access to the sea. well, as a percentage of what is there? well, let's go to uh, well , of course, we can't talk about last year, because it was the same story and it was maybe even more difficult even here it is not a little, just pre-war the level is different, there were different prices there, and this is different. our harvest was 108 million tons in the 21st year. that is, it is not possible to compare a little, let’s probably say in billions of dollars, it’s tens of billions of dollars . it seems to me somewhere

there, we can still lose up to 20 billion dollars due to road logistics and certain delays with exports. therefore, this is really an important thing , considering that in the 22nd year, about 60% of export revenue was just such an agrarian export, so for us it is very important very important logistics again i do not believe especially in such a way, the development of railway routes is quite fast, but the danube and romania are the main main and transport arteries now, and they really have the potential to expand, the fact that already several ships are safe, they were not ships with grain, but still by sea from the ukrainian

half a day passed to the bosphorus, safely crossed this or that route, despite russia’s refusal to participate in the grain agreement , it is still being considered now, and maybe someone from other countries has volunteered to take the risk and still export grain by this route, despite the lack of of agreements between turkey, the un and russia. so far, there are no insurance companies, they are london-based, the same insurers that would be the main ones on this market, they refused to insure our ships because the military risks are really high. direct contracts with countries are interesting, with turkey, let’s say, with china or china enters our deep-sea ports with large ships and loads corn, and if, for example, there is a direct dialogue with china to purchase corn directly from us, i am not sure that the russians are

attacking chinese ships in the black sea therefore, these direct schemes are indeed possible, i am primarily talking about turkey and china, are negotiations on this topic already underway, if of course it is possible to voice such information, and as far as i know, not yet, e-e is actively buying russian grain, cheap mouth but really if we we talk there about corn, about sunflower oil, then the turks are interested in ukraine, but about wheat, probably no , but er, er, such fodder crops or oils. this is really interesting for them, an interesting direction. and there is also an alternative and dangerous for us

the option that at least was announced, that is, russia does not offer its grain plus ukrainian carat to erdoğan with the support of qatar with the exclusion of any european structures and ukraine as such, and there on this front, as the situation is, it is difficult to say so far, well, so far since russia exports, that's why, for them, it's trying to pretend that it's saving africa, even though it's not true. they did it in the principle of research that russia's contribution to exports to a poor african country is less than five percent of their export revenue. that's why it's a myth about what russia is saving poor countries from starvation. it seems to me that these prerequisites cannot, in principle, exist. unfortunately, we see that ukraine is losing export markets. we are forced to admit that because the market is a living mechanism and it is already there. the same indonesia does not

buy our wheat. we lost a part of egypt there, but as we have already understood, it is still not formalized with them as some kind of scheme and agreement. thank you for the analysis. this is mr. pavly, pavlo martyshevy, an analyst at the center for food and land use research of the kyiv school of economics. we have a small a pause, after which our colleagues will tell you all the news for this hour and we will return. do you want to wake up rested and full of strength, but from the old mattress , the whole body constantly hurts, and on the sofa you can't turn around, you can't find a comfortable position, you need to improve your sleeping place, meet the new product from experts mattress tv mattress stopper casper ortholight instant solution to the problem of an uncomfortable sofa or an old mattress at a good price for only 999 uah

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