[000:00:00;00] i'm going to return this amount, it's worth it, in fact, one day the war will end, do some kind of merch, you know, i don't know , expresso tv channels to those who were active , to those who transferred this money, so that these people would have a reminder. well, in principle, so that we could somehow celebrate those who they transfer the money and in this way it helps. well, i think i will. i think they will be grateful and i will record those videos . some kind of thanks. i think adam's fighters and uh and others, yes, and a whole range of legendary two formations, absolutely, and we owe them these platforms with turrets hand over and then already from to hear their feedback, dear friends. well, now we continue to talk about money. ivan, candidate of economic sciences, the chief consultant of the national institute of strategic studies joins us . ivan, good morning

. good morning, ms. lesya . first of all, let's try to understand what is happening now in some global figures, let's compare how the gross domestic product is growing in russia and ukraine, what is happening in our country, there is fantastic growth of the domestic product score and gdp in fact for half a year, i am not mistaken that by 27 percent, and the comparison is indeed this, but it should be understood that here the effect is the basis of the comparison. that is, we are comparing the situation that was in 2022, and at the same time, this is just the second quarter, when the peak of our economic decline was it was a percentage back then, and now the situation is definitely leveling off , that is, now, on the contrary, we definitely have growth. this is not a return to what was before a certain large-scale war, but at least we see positive trends. actually, they were observed earlier and in may of the current

year, and if i add, iberar said that they expect the rights of ukraine to increase by 1% based on the support of the current year. for the next month, the world bank and its forecast said that you know, most likely, 2% growth will be so, and this is emphasized in the may , june estimates, that is, i think that now in october , many forecasts are traditionally made, but regarding the estimates for the end of the year and for the next year i think that we are getting an even bigger and better forecast for ukrainian prospects i have already seen even estimates of 5% growth next year and a year from now, and this would mean that in principle, in two years, we will be at least at pre-war indicators. that 's right, and maybe we can even record a small increase, since 3% remains there. yes, no. no 3 somewhere 6 probably before before the war

, yes, the russians are not doing so well, but their forecast has also improved, it seems that this year they may even grow a little by 0.7 percent, but they say all kinds of different things, that is, the russians also give themselves more or less council look, we are definitely adapting to the new realities of economic life, but let's be honest, to a large extent , ukraine's economy is supported by the help of our partners, and what is important is not only loans, these are grants that do not need to be returned, so when someone will say that ukraine is now driving itself into a harrow hole in fact, no , that is, what the united states of america gives are grants - it does not return what the europeans give. yes, these are loans. but you need to read the terms - these are loans . because when loans are given for 35 years and if you will make reforms that we need in principle and that will contribute to our european integration, then i don't think that this is some kind of difficult condition, on the contrary, this condition is for the benefit of the future of ukraine, so i don't

see any problems here either, and the plus point is that a 35-year loan means payments there in nine years and the interest will be paid by our partners if ukraine implements this reform, that is, it is very good that you are a valuable factor for us , in the end, after the reform, we will have to carry out other reforms that you know for a decade at 10:00 a.m. i wonder how we will not achieve them at the same time there is a factor of international aid and it is ukraine, and the russian federation does not have this factor because those who have close ties with it, let's say, they will not be able to help economically simply because they themselves need help, that is, the same ones on the mixture of belarus china now has its own problems, so it will not save russia , and while there are rumors that it is increasingly looking for opportunities, so to speak , to emphasize its neutrality and not to have any clear connections with russia, that is why

we constantly hear statements from representatives to china, what is the phrase about being friendly with russia, these are just words, no actions , this is what the chinese ambassador to the european union said in the city two years ago. that means that there is no help factor in russia, and therefore what they are hoping for. well, it may not happen here. plus, russia expects a lot from us, a significant increase in hydrocarbon prices, first of all, for oil, but the irony is that this global increase in oil prices has led to a shortage of gasoline in russia itself, especially diesel, especially in the period when it is necessary to harvest a diesel there is no reason farmers say that we are not sure that we will be able to do it why because once again this is the rise in world prices that russia was now hoping for, and we have a deficit on the screen, and the deficit is because of the increase in the negative balance of the russian budget due to the fact that the du- let's say this income

they are, let's say, reduced and expenses are increasing, this led to the fact that starting from september 1, it was decided that it is not more economical to choose a denfa and a damper - this is additional payments to russian sellers of fuel in the event of a difference in prices. if these are all traditionally increased, but now they have increased, and accordingly, all these companies that sell fuel in russia asked to compensate them for the increase in this difference, and they said that no, we do not have money, as there is no money, there is no money, you stay there, said the former mayor of moscow , otbutina medvedev, and here, and because of the fact that there is no such money, so they decided ok, then we will not sell fuel on the domestic market, we are his work, and what is the fuel shortage, it would seem to the oil country russia, and it is really strange, but also in them by the way, the prices have risen, they complain a lot that fuel is very expensive now, but to be fair, i can tell you that

fuel is even very expensive by russian standards, the main thing is that it costs two times cheaper than in ukraine. well, i know that there in turkmenistan, i don't know how much a liter of gasoline costs now i haven't been there for a long time, but you could get gasoline there, i don't know how to wash, relatively speaking, here it was cheaper than there, a bottle of mineral water in the store is also a country like a gas station, i wanted to know what else to say about ukrainian history, the magazine de ikony was published of the city all week, of course, i remember him because he is dedicated to ukraine, we can even show the cover for rethinking and how to help ukraine win in a long war in a long war, this is the question asked by the best heads of journalism in the world. it seems to me that it is economical and journalism in the world and and the question is that

if the war lasts a very long time and ukraine should not count only on this foreign aid, which steadily receives several billion dollars and euros each month you just need to understand that it will not last 10 years, for example. and the war can last for years and in one form or another . first and second. in such a case, ukraine begins to prosper. it must learn to prosper even in those conditions and develop , and that is why the authors of the editorial article in particular you have probably also read p. ivan well, i won't say that you are a journal, but the uniqueness of the authors in particular lies in the fact that instead of concentrating on future plans for the future development after the victory of the capitulation of russia, the parliament the marshal of all reparations and compensation is surrendered to russia, so to speak, it is better to concentrate on how to transfer

business to the western regions of the state of ukraine, how to develop this business, how to reform economic freedom in this country, and so on and so forth. well, in principle, what do you think about this issue this appeal of the british magazine that ukraine should rethink its victory, first of all, this is a hint in this world that, you know, it was not possible to finish this story quickly. therefore, you need to be ready for the ground, but this does not mean that it will be really long because, you know, it is dragging on, we already have more than a year and a half of a plan for a large-scale war, but i am not ready to say that it will last another 15 years or something, simply because the russian economy is not improving at the same time ukraine should also understand that the end of a large-scale war is unknown when it will be. economically, it is already there and it is already necessary to develop and think not only about how we

exist at the expense of aid, thanks to the help of partners, and how to earn money yourself you know, recently there was a nice round table in the center of razumkovo, and there was a good idea that in general, someone in our country did a stress-trust of that . what would happen to the country then, just model it, and this is exactly what the magazine is about, the partial hints at the fact that after all, oleksiy danilo , we have oleksiy danilov. remember this week i feel a little, well, if i were not myself, a little, well, i am not myself, because when the secretary of the council, we would not have security in our plan, and that the assistance to us was stopped, then what well, that's why, in fact , coming back to this call during the round table in the center of the reasonable

these plans are still really necessary, that is, we need to understand what to do in the situation, this mergers , let's call it that, if the help is for various reasons . that is, we understand that the western world is a world of democracy, that is, the political forces that say that we cannot give money are winning plus, let's not forget about the significant, significant corrupt image of ukraine, which also affects the opinions of many politicians, if you ask housewives in the united states of america or in the eu, a lot has been said for a long time, ukraine is a corrupt country, we give its money, well, this cannot be done, that's why ukraine really needs to prepare to the fact that this option , perhaps i am not saying that it has a high probability , nevertheless, i cannot say that it will not happen, therefore , in fact, it is really necessary to work out the possibilities of this development of how the economy will work, provocations of enterprises are really necessary think how to do it at the same time. you also know right away that a lot of this will depend on the dynamics of the fall at the front, that is, if we

relocate, it means that the pilaf will be spread after, let's say, the end of the large-scale war and the restoration of control over this territory, our country will change, although b because people who traditionally lived in the same regions will come mostly in the western direction and it will be let's say that ukraine is already different , i would even say so. trade, and therefore exports, to establish opportunities to export in conditions when russia also blocks the black sea and neighboring countries forbid ukrainian agricultural products from them, of course , poland, slovakia, hungary, thanks to romania, she did not make such statements, that is, with romania, it means closer cooperation in the implementation of projects that the italians have now started this dry port is valuable for the city of zakarpattia region because it has the advantage that it is an elevator to which

tracks of both ukrainian size and actually european average size go there are portugal, spain, a few others have them, but mainly eu countries have this size, and this means that ukraine, without the right to change the wheels in trains, can safely send these grains by railway tracks to neighboring countries without affecting their elevators, their storage capacity, because actually the problem we currently have with poland, first of all, and other neighbors is precisely related to the fact that the logistics of our exports were not calculated. so we will delay our grain in their warehouses and thereby take the place that traditionally occupied their domestic farmers, therefore, it is necessary to work on these delivery routes as much as possible so that they do not affect warehouses in neighboring countries and immediately

move on. these realities, one must be prepared that these realities for the private well, let's give it two or three years , you know, and not to be very optimistic , the most pessimistic, at the same time prepare for the adjustment of the economy in this period, and then we'll see. because you know how the riot showed beautiful. everything can happen in an instant, and at one moment we will wake up in russian, if at all. it's not like it was before, well, actually , how is it that someone writes what is being done in the editorial office of these articles? we must pray for a quick victory of the armed forces of ukraine, but we must prepare for the worst plans. to have this plan b i insist on this ivan thank you very much for this science, the chief consultant of the national institute of strategic studies was also with us. 30,000 hryvnias, we have

1 million 138,875 hryvnias and again those unfortunate six kopecks at the end . we are google turn on hundreds of channels in thousands of movies and sports i have discounts on voltaren forte and voltaren emulgel 20% in pharmacies podorozhnyk bam and oschad vasya vasya vatu and what is wrong with you and bad brother antibiotics swallowed the antibiotic probiz was drunk and lesya is kind of frail gavrilo petrovych to you also bad she drank the antibiotic probiz in her tummy, let her mother give her probiz, the girls came out

and the man's life is like how after the antibiotic, like probiz, so that ukrainians don't think about it, so that they don't talk about it in the first place , war, war, and our victory only on espresso, from monday to sunday, completely different spheres of human activity, sports, health, politics , the return of crimea, military analytics of the ninth presenters, journalists, experts , opinion leaders in real time about the most relevant events through the prism of war in author's projects on espresso, with you vitaly portnikov and we will discuss the main events of this week vitaly portnikov and top experts about the most striking events of the last seven days, our guest will be the generator of satellite forces, the former national security adviser of the president of the united states, donald trump

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of information, even the most anticipated event of the year, what is actually happening at the front, what are the losses of personnel and equipment on the battlefield, how do we evaluate our successes, the international community and about what moscow is lying about in the news that is coming from everywhere, we single out the most important ones, closely monitoring whether there will be weapons for ukraine and what kind . welcome to all viewers at 9:00 p.m. nayspresso weekly saturday political club

helps to understand the processes taking place in ukraine and the world vitaly portnikov host of espresso and invited experts based on facts give their assessment and forecast of development events, you want to understand how our today will affect our tomorrow, see saturday's political club, that saturdays at espresso. good morning, everyone, somehow the pause ended so unexpectedly. well, dear friends, we will now analyze the situation at the front, we will talk about what is happening there, and we will also talk about what took place in crimea oleksiy hetman - reserve major of the national guard of ukraine veteran of the russian-ukrainian war he will help us in this we are setting up mr. and there is already mr. oleksiy with us p oleksiy good

morning everyone, let's start with examination of a piece of the map, so to speak, which was published by the american institute of war research, fresh today and as we see, as we see, there is a serious wedge in such an advance of the armed forces of ukraine in the strategically important tokmak direction . that's right, well, this was already an official confirmation of our military, let's say so, the leadership of the institute two days ago, the american war research wrote about the fact that they see by geolocation that the heavy equipment of our armed forces is already behind the third line of defense, that is, to completely these dragon's teeth and the anti-tank roma have passed there and they can conduct hostilities already there. well, you know. i think that here. well , you have to understand that the second or third line, which we often said about, was not as powerful

and fortified as the first line, so we expected that there will be faster advances, even though the enemy held the international third line. well, the armored vehicles were guns. that's why the line was like that. well, more or less, it was difficult to overcome now if the eyes. well, according to this geolocation, it can definitely be confirmed, then the experts will not there are no more enemy structures. and it will be easier to move. i think that further on we can move more calmly even to the very coast of the azov region. in particular, the taking of tokmak means that tokmak will open up space for further breakthroughs, but tokmak is a fairly large city , 30 m², i think it's 40 m², well, slon is

a fairly large city, and we saw that andriyuku how did they take it, brother? what, how did they take the tick, that is, in fact, this is a settlement that simply does not exist anymore, they exist only on the map e it was destroyed there, in particular, they made a fortification in a circle, they will guard it, although it is on the yellow road to the south, it was not for the sake of freeing the poppy, i had to the railway, which is the main main artery of russian logistics, the automatic machine in volnovakha, tokmak, further , even to dzhankoy, and which feeds the entire southern grouping, the kherson grouping and the crimean grouping of the russians , well, the kerch place can go there along it something can move forward, so i'm sure that no one will do anything to the frontal side, as they say tokmakus, he could simply be bypassed further there, how long he sticks around, well, it's hard to say. i think it's a matter of several weeks, and that's the most important thing today it is to this railway

and hmm well, it is impossible to deliver anything serious in large volumes or there is also a road over there, but there is a train of 340 cars on it, you can immediately bring something so serious in a large number of cars a few cars well, these are completely different things, by and large, all of them are of the professional line, they were built exactly parallel to this road, that is, they go there from, well, some settlement, whatever it is called, after all, for the railway, and the russians understand this very well that when they are left without an opportunity something to subdivide everything significantly, well, worsen their capabilities there , in this direction, that is why they are not putting certain reserves there. well, not reserves, they are mad at the front, they are transferring here the 76th 7th

airborne division, not the division. well, f-f i think that judging from what we see in the news, what we see even in the analytics of the american war, well, they don't do it very well, and well, what will happen next, as now volodymyr zelenskyi predicted during his visit to washington that bakhmut will be released by the end of the year. he said that by the end of the year bakhmuts should be released , and the new york times wrote that this indicates a difference in the disagreements and positions of ukraine and the united states regarding the counteroffensive that the united states said american planners say that ukraine should focus more in the south and besides journalists write that the battle actually some american officials say that the battle in bakhmut has become something like the obsession of mr. zelenskyi and his military leaders, yes, there was such information that not quite our partners understand why yes

why bakhmut is so important to them because it is so strategic the importance of the southern direction is not there . well, this is also important. crimea is temporarily occupied, and then there will be more serious negative consequences for the russians. well, why is bakhmut there? president zelenskyi said that there are several more bakhmuts and two more cities, at least two places that he cannot name yet. i don’t know, maybe it’s some kind of it was said on purpose to confuse the enemy, because i also don't quite understand why exactly why exactly why exactly it is necessary to focus on bakhmut, although you know from the other side, you know, after all, they are planning a military operation

, not uh, our military, not political the leadership, the military leadership, and so far the limitations of the early headquarters are the actions that he planned. well, they were far-sighted and reasonable , so let’s wait and see what we will see directly on the map of the hostilities. they have the right to exist, but we must still remember that it is not the political military leadership that is planning the hostilities, it is the reduction of the real issue. what, after all, is the last word for the military in these matters? well, nevertheless, we see that a huge number of one of the armed forces of ukraine is concentrated near bakhmut in the direction of bakhmut, offensive actions continue there, and we will follow it.

it has been going on for more than one month, one way or another, someone has already started to say that the new york times is saying that it is some kind of commissioned material from an american american publication. i do not support this rhetoric. to be honest, i have much more respect for such respected publications than, for example, for many representatives of the ukrainian community media . well , what else did we want to talk about ? announcement without announcement, then they say that they give, then they don't give, then they say that they give a little, and then they say that maybe they will give, but when it is known, because in our country, all this is the subject of some such thing, literally very broad discussion i understand that with

f16 it definitely needs such support and publicity at the international level and what about those attacks ? it seems to me that the communication situation means that it can be harmful, but it can also create political pressure. well, you know about the attack in my case about the fact that they have a way of transferring them to us . there are fewer machines already at the beginning of the year . and so on ie well, such conversations so far, well, judging by this, we do not have these missiles , will they be or not, well, they will be, it seems, they are talking about it again, the same people who said that the papers are already for the signatures of the president of the united states , information about a limited number in general well, you know well, when

we comment on something, we try to talk about some combat operations about the supply of weapons well , these are the phrases , a limited number looks, well, you know. the number is so limited, so let's wait. i'm sure that we will have this weapon and it will help us, it won't be solved again, it's still atagroms, everything will be solved by water, we won't all have one, we'll win, nothing like that, it'll just help our news to advance faster and let's shoot more on the street , so as not to blow, well, just as we were talking, we broke through there, the third line, make a dragon, and so on, we are moving to the south . thank you, we are winning with hard efforts, but for now we are winning, the enemy will be abroad it is to do more, faster and better, but in itself it is a weapon that does not solve the question of victory, it solved the question because it is related to

love. here we write offensively, it will be good but it will not be. of the ukrainian war, now let's observe a moment of silence in memory of the ukrainian military and peaceful citizens of ukraine who died in the war