that everything is fine with him, but, let's say, he could have been there from the very beginning, i don't know, or piskov could have commented on his state of health, piskov said that we are not a hospital, we do not issue health certificates, kadyrov himself could have shot a video and said today there is such a thing, i am alive, everything is okay, well, what was filmed, but then it turned out that it was not filmed there, on the wrong day, and at all at the wrong time, why just again and we return to prigozhin, it is as if these structures are kremlin, yes, they themselves are mystifying. thus some behavior that later we get results both with faith in prigozhin's life, yes, now with kadyrov, why, why was it not possible to respond normally there, for example, to these measures regarding the deterioration of health? well, i can answer you from a scientific point of view, and i can tell you a simpler one, there is a book, well, its authorship is attributed to this man, as his ex, sorkov, well, under the pseudonym, allegedly, nathan dubovitsky, and it is called ultranormal. where, strictly speaking

, is signed this technology of plunging society into a state of confusion, when everything it is possible, yes, there is another wonderful book by a british researcher, well, of ukrainian origin, well, from ukraine , i mean the scumbags who talk about the fact that this is not propaganda and that everything is a lie and everything is possible, this is about russian propaganda, they deliberately produce, as you said, mystify reality in order to create a space for... perhaps in order to impose some absolutely absurd, absolutely incredible versions on society, and for these versions to fall on the ground of public consciousness , where they will germinate and give the desired result, that is, they will continue to mystify all this, that is, it is normal, by the way, this is a part of their culture of much deeper times, already dmitry 1, already dmitry 2, ivan - known as yemilyan pugachev,

and the death of stalin, who is not does not understand what it is about, you can watch the film, the death of stalin, the british one, this scandalous one, which was banned in russia, just to understand what the atmosphere is like in these ruling classes and why they use all these concealments, mystifications, this is at least gives they have space in order to gain time, in order to agree something between themselves, well, kadyrov is alive, kadyrov is not alive, is it kadyrov, is it kadyrov, well, in reality, domestic political processes could start in russia if , for example, well, there was, there would be a suspicion that it was one of the towers of the kremlin, or that putin directly influenced the deterioration of the chechen leader's health, well, he, as there is a beautiful russian saying, died forever, well, well, that is, well, and a quiet house with him, well, like that, yes, but in reality you have to realize that there is a legacy that you have to share.

and there are many people who encroach on this heritage, and it is clear that the struggle for this heritage could become a factor of turbulence, well, at least at the level of chechnya, well, since what is chechnya, chechnya is also, well, kadyrov transformed it for such a vassality, if we use some medieval terminology, and their interests go far beyond the borders of chechnya, well, they would start tearing them all over russia, well, that is, where their groups are. have their shares in the criminal business, in the criminal business, well, it is clear that other groups would start trying to push them out of it, well, it’s clear that different parts crush different structures , well, russian, somewhere there, right, well, law enforcement officers , no, i probably said it too loudly, their security forces, no, well, their security forces are also different, there are there are fsbshniks, there are fsoshniks, there are these, grushniks, there are.

the policemen there are ordinary, that is, it is clear that they all control all the parts there, it is clear that all this could entail certain processes, but you should not think that it broke out so instantly, and even more so one should not think that kadyrov can be replaced by a liberal democrat who will adhere to a secular ideology, because , again, a certain ground has been prepared there, and there is the concept of political... tutkan rice wrote about this very well, that bananas do not grow in the polar region, well, in principle, you can grow bananas in the polar region, but for that you need to build certain greenhouses there, yes, that is, create certain climatic conditions, and this can turn out to be very expensive, so you should not root the russian political regime in individual personnel, so the putin regime is an authoritarian regime of the personalist type, but this does not mean that the disappearance of putin will automatically lead to its dismantling. of this

regime, this means that there may be other personalities who want to fight for the status of this central figure of this regime, the same can be said about chechnya only at the local level. that's why we pay too much attention, to be honest, to these issues and processes, well, because i belong to those people who still believe that history is driven by impersonal people, let there be objective forces and, well, the role of the individual in history, well, it is rather a tool for the realization of these forces than a source, well, we also cannot not talk about these personalities, because a lot of what happens around them and with them, it it also decides, it decides ours, well, i don’t know to what extent it decides, but it affects, affects, affects in fact, yes, on the situation, both politically between our states, and at the front and in many other moments, mr. pavle, you can to also ask about this renal history

of kadyrov, because before he lay down or lay down, whether he was undergoing surgery, a kidney transplant, or a transplant, he appeared. that he can be appointed to a leadership position in the russian guard, mr. valentin, mr. valentin will laugh at this, but then he suddenly thundered into the moscow hospital, exactly the same, what is happening, or is this another resolution, and really, there is a scattering, a scattering of some kind there throwing in grains, different formats, different types, domestic, russian and foreign consumers, or is it? well, kadyrov's health is really bad, it's obvious from his appearance kadyrov doesn't look like such a healthy uncle at all, but i'm not a doctor and i can't make a diagnosis, regarding the kidneys, regarding everything else that concerns the rosguard, then indeed, this is

a structural unit, it is gaining more and more scope, the power unit intercepts certain ones, strongholds, those informal networks that were under control, let’s take it easy, a large part of the wagnerites are now intercepted in the russian guard units, now again zolotov is pulling up his russian guard, cossacks, all kinds of formations, there are practically in... everyone of all kotsitsen vodoladskyi, this mobilization resource is quite easily consumed, easily digested, and all this is directed into such a not

quite not quite military structure, rather militarized, so often these same rosgvards are involved in the fronts of the russian-ukrainian war, and on the other hand, with a greater part of them actions within the russian federation, for example, the protection of the same crimean bridge across the kerch strait is also entrusted by putin to the russian guard, although it is clear that this is a strategic object of a military nature, that is, it can really be protected by the military, which they also do anti-aircraft defense, anti-sabotage defense, and anti-sabotage defense, but the formal brigade that is in charge is the zolotovka brigade, the guards brigade, by the way, in zolovat there are, surprisingly enough, amphibious troops in this brigade means are appearing, quite atypical, this is something, that is, amphibious assault boats, in the kerch straits, the subordination of the russian guards, what are they for, well, this question is also

quite broad for the interpretation of such a thing, so what to talk about who will intercept and in which will seize power within the limits. russia, if it falters, well, it is still too early, but there are a lot of contenders for it. mr. valentin, you laughed so hard when you talked about kadyrov and about some leadership position in the russian guard, does it make you laugh? well, of course, well, because i’ll repeat myself, kadyrov, actually , his, these nukers, well, they do all the dirty work, well, from the point of view of political theory, organized crime, and crime is the institution of civil society, well in... even organized crime is an institution of the state which is completely under the control of the state, and some things are done with its hands in order to intimidate, extort, exterminate political opponents, and not only political, but also economic opponents, well, but everyone

perfectly understands that when you have there some, roughly speaking, predatory animal, well, which you use there, then there is always a question of controlling this predatory animal, yes, so that it... eats those you want, and not eats you, so it is clear that there certain structures that i mentioned above that try control, well, of course, that they give them some kind of feeding , if... you can say that, you can do it here, you get such a reward for it, don't go here anymore, it's not yours, it's someone else's, here's their feeding, well, for that you will carry certain people there, work off the panshchy, if you can say so, not only do you pay rent there, yes, but also work off the manshchyon, although they also pay the rent, they do, the suitcases with money vertically function, but in addition, they also work off murders, intimidation, kidnappings, and eventually participating in the war against ukraine. that is, you have to do it, and they do it, but i don't think that anyone in russia

is burning with the desire to expand kadyrov's sphere of influence even more than it is, i tend to think that there is just the opposite tendency there, to limit the spheres of his influence, well, but he has this leadership, he sits there, well, he turned chechnya, simply into his by and large, urkhaganate, that's what i would call it, and there is no other way to do it. to name, and what's next, well, but it can't last forever, well, someone said it very well about him, and we really spend a lot of time on him, he is not worth it, but someone once said very coolly about him, even before the start of a full-scale war, kadyrov was a lightning-fast politician of the 15th century, well, in the 15th century, the models of his behavior, his foreign policy, his domestic policies would be brilliant, because he made a very profitable vassal agreement. speaking, from this vassal agreement he has a huge amount of profit, he strengthened his domestic political position,

well, to some extent he guaranteed there, well, global security for his country, well, he handsome, only problems, well, since the 15th century, only now it is not the 15th century in the yard, this is one point, and secondly, that even in the 15th century it did not last long, well it still ended with the fact that new challenges arise, and this model is mutual, it has exhausted itself, that is, for today... day, again , can kadyr give in the putin regime what the putin regime expects to receive from him, and the main question for kadyrov now is whether the putin regime can guarantee him all that he at one time, concluding this vassal agreement received, i tend to think that it cannot , well, simply because putin's regime itself has lost this power potential, that is, kadyrov supposedly has this power potential, at least in some fiefdoms, but the russians. left nagorno- karabakh, just got together and fell, well, what did they fall? well, because they, did they have

the opportunity to act differently there, did they have the tools to behave differently? well, hypothetically, we can assume that there was some, but the use of this toolkit is within the limits in which it is there they had it, would inevitably lead them to even greater disaster. they don't have the potential to get involved there, that's what pashinyan said , russia is leaving the caucasus, all of karabakh, about karabakh. we will still have time to talk, now we will add to our broadcast , we will add one more guest, in particular, ivan varchenko, a security expert , joins us, mr. ivan, congratulations, good day, glory to ukraine, glory to the heroes, we have announced the main topic today , in particular, processes related to the remnants of the wagner fighters, underproduction, so i i have already used these words once, i decided not to say them twice on the air , and in fact recently there was an interesting news from cnn about the fact that the ukrainian special services may probably be involved in attacks on the remnants

of the wagner fighters, who are currently in the territory of africa. attention, for of our viewers, who skip cnn publishes first-person video recordings of attacks on cars by militants who shot kamikaze drones, according to five, officials and military from the united states, sudan, chad and ukraine itself, precisely ukrainian special services, according to their style. the use of certain drones, it is very likely that they are behind the attacks on the wagnerites in africa. mr. ivan, how do you assess the likelihood of such a possibility, yes, is it at all advisable to catch, let's say, someone who committed crimes on the territory of ukraine and then left for africa, hoping that he would continue his life there, and his work, in particular under the leadership of the war criminal prigozhin, that's just a situation with a really loud headline, ukraine kills, liquidates vagne's militants. on the territory of africa, please, mr. ivan, well, a loud headline, surely it is wrong

to say that ukraine kills on the territory of africa, ukraine has not practiced such things until now, we did not carry out unofficial governments, we did not bring to justice, in including international criminals, we brought them within the limits of international criminal law, but currently russia, which has crossed all the limits of criminal law, has put the special service of ukraine, including in the tutuation, that everyone with a crime will be punished, and i think that ukraine will find levers, of course official, formal ones, we have bilateral agreements with these states, and if these bilateral agreements do not work, if world rules do not work and russian war criminals, war criminals, will seek and find a warm place for themselves

in any of the countries of the world, they will be found and brought to justice, there are precedents in the work of other special services, and i am sure that where international law will not work, there the ukrainians will bring the case to the end, and criminals will be held responsible for crimes committed in ukraine. i am not ready to talk now about counterlogical versions or versions of what happened , i hope that over time we will learn the real situation, in the memories, it will definitely have a response, a reflection, but there is the very fact that the wagnerites, wherever they are now transferred, but they will be exterminated , they will be destroyed, i think this is the right signal, mr. ivan, in particular, our head of military intelligence, general bodanov, said that ukraine does not need a special signal, i apologize, but for those who cherish the hope of joining terrorist groups, be it the wagnerites or their rise, so

absolutely, in this context, yes, mr. ivan, said general bodanov, about the fact that ukraine does not need a separate auxiliary ... a unit that will deal with, well, let's say this, the destruction and punishment of military liquidations, war criminals, because they say, our, the ukrainian version of the mossad is there, it is already active, it is already working, of course we did not confirm the involvement at the official level so loud liquidations on the territory of the russian federation are enough, let's say, but our ukrainian intelligence works in this direction and budanov does not hide it, in general, mr. ivan, to what extent did the war change, let's say, the methods of work of the ukrainian... services, can we really say that those war criminals who cannot be prosecuted under international criminal law , let's say, justice and some forces friendly to ukraine can catch up with them, well, as for the russian federation, it is clear that we are working and we will to work, and we do not accept it, and our

special services should not come, these are completely legal targets located on the territory of the russian federation. the aggressor state, which itself crossed out all those international rules by which wars are waged, and we act within the limits of the international rules in relation to this state, which preyed on them, that is why they will be destroyed here on the territory of russia, and on the territory of belarus, with which the aggression is taking place of ukraine, they will also be destroyed within the limits of precisely the internationally recognized norms and rules of introduction war, eh, when i spoke, i said that what other countries have with us: there are relevant agreements, including on criminal prosecution, and the fact that the methods of the special services will change, it is unlikely that the methods of the special services will change additionally , but the toolkit, the tools that the special services have today, in principle, in society, even civil society, i will remind you that we have

a number of investigative bodies, structures, organizations that investigate, including military ones.. . crimes, they do not belong to special services, they use public open data, this is banence, this is a series of other similar organizations, including in ukraine, there are those who are able to do this efficiently and effectively, so the toolkit says that no criminal with today's video surveillance system , reporting and receiving information, will not have the opportunity to avoid responsibility, and here, of course , there is a huge field for professional special services in the powers of detection itself and for which money is paid for identifying criminals and bringing them to justice to responsibility, i think that the special services, including public organizations, individual figures and specialists, now all over the world and in ukraine, of course, will be the further, the more effective, yes, mr. pavle, it is possible, once we mentioned africa, once we mentioned the wagnerites

there, on this continent, we saw them quite, quite like this... work, what to call it, probably bright, while i was alive, beautiful, i won't say it differently, brightly active, nothing, if bright, it creates nightmares, creates revolutions , nightmare the peoples, nightmare, yes, what will happen to them on this continent now, what will happen to the wagnerites now, i don’t know, they transfer them, they don’t transfer them to ukraine, but they take them out of belarus or bring them in, but what will we see in the near future, uh, with the activists of this pmc , what fate will await them in the near future, on which continent they did not appear, your opinion , what will happen...' to wagner, in fact, putin's regime, to them, to those who participated in the rebellion against putin when , they signed a death sentence, planes will fall,

cars will break down, etc., putin will do his thing fear is not forgiven, and it is recalled, as for ordinary wagnerites , they are considered as a labor resource, the wagner company was created as such a new hybrid... instrument of influence of the russian federation in africa, in order to hide the official interference of the russian state in african affairs, so to speak, they invented such a way when they occupied the crimea, they invented various cossacks and green men there, it seems that this is not over, we will show you, the same thing happened in africa, later it turned out, and it was clear that this tool... it is subject to or the game, or the fsb, in one of the two power structures, sometimes the interests of russia intersected there, and he realized the state

interests of russia in africa, no more and no less, and when the syrian company arose, then about the libyan, syrian, in the end, they simply used an already working mechanism for plugging holes, in the same one in libya, ugh. effectively, in syria there is already a very weak effectiveness, because this tool was sharpened in a different way, for other tasks, and now after the reins were seized from those, suicide bombers, corpses, political, well, and management tools are being transferred to the physical ones. will there be any russian private vision companies under the ministry of defense or under the rosguard, russia will try to maintain in africa

, maintain those high positions, blackmail and force pressure, absolutely, we understand that they will want to maintain a certain influence, so we will see if this will work out , in general , thank you for joining, pavlo lekiychuk, head of security programs of the strategy 21 center for global studies, joined our broadcast, we are moving to mr. valentine, we indirectly touched on the topic of the operation in karabash and saw absolutely no reaction from russian peacekeepers, yes they saw , well, they didn’t really see, and now aliyev has also apologized to the russian federation for the death of at least six russian peacekeepers, at the beginning of the ministry of defense of russia they said, they say, russian peacekeepers are brothers they will not take part, because nothing threatens their lives, in the end, it is not threatened so much that they already recognize their losses, and theirs in general, well , i am not saying that they were supposed to protect there, this is a quasi-formation, however. but surely that to prevent a forceful scenario of liquidation there, of such a structure in general, yes of this formation, it is certain that they should have prevented,

in the end, yes, even the death of russian peacekeepers, absolutely, in no way affected the fact that russia raised its hands and not in absolutely this process, did not interfere, why? well, because they didn't have the tools to interfere with this process. i think that if georgia now decided to bring these separatist entities back under its control, well, i think that it is simply logistical, from the point of view of logistics it would be easier for the russians to act, well, but by and large they would have difficulties there too, because it would still have to take forces somewhere and transfer them there. at the moment, they did not have such forces, and the russians simply clearly show that the war in ukraine is still a priority for them, that is, they could afford to create... these zones of instability and feed off of that somehow, to this day, when the question is either, or, or there in karabakh, where , by the way, there was an absolutely pro-russian government,

not even pro-armenian, but frankly pro-russian, which acts exclusively in the interests of the russian federation, even created certain conflicts with the central government of armenia, but nevertheless, when the issue of rubb arose, it turned out that it can be handed over just like a glass container, handed over to a store. and that's all, well, there is just one more nuance, well, point one, what were the international agreements, russia was entrusted with certain functions that they did not fulfill, well, that is, their peacekeeper, they did not just stand there, to prevent force scenario of liquidation, that's all, please, and there are still nuances, there were already weapons there, and so on the project, which was at least made public, envisages the transfer of these weapons, this separatist... enclave of the russian federation for disposal, i think that if this did not happen, we would not be able to dispose of it somewhere in the east of ukraine, that is, it was also possible from

russian motifs. how to legally obtain the weapons that they urgently need there, so this must be taken into account, but what is fundamentally important in this, after all, is the awareness of the russian federation about the limitations of its available resources and the need to set priorities in the use of these resources, so i tend to think that if they left already from karabakh, then i think that maintaining all these structures in africa will be. it is even more complicated, but there is another nuance here, there is a beautiful book called narconomics, how drug cartels do business, and in particular there is an interesting passage about this well-known cartel lossettos, the so-called , well, it is, so it is, network marketing, well , roughly speaking , these are not the same people, these are just different different groups, no, which simply work under a certain brand and with they make up a whole structure, a franchise.

yes, so when we talk about the same wagner in africa, well, we understand that in that wagner, yes, roughly speaking, people from all over the world gather there, they are just soldiers of fortune who want to make money, or are there some of them are russians, of course, that is, whether it was sponsored by the russian state, definitely yes, whether they protected russian interests, definitely yes, whether it helped to influence local regimes, definitely yes, but you have to understand that these regimes there there were no vacuums, they will also now be displaced by their competitors, to whom someone will provide other assistance, these are absolutely normal working relations, i repeat, the key moment for the russians to realize the limitations of their resources in order to pursue a daring foreign policy and hope for the fact that everyone will swallow it, that's why they left, they will leave from the caucasus, they will leave,

well, from ukraine, it stands for itself. obviously, i tend to think that they will leave the entire post-soviet space eventually, and there are a lot of peoples of the former soviet of the union do not even realize to the end what a huge significance the victory of ukraine will have for them, and for many peoples even of the current russian federation, that is, however paradoxical it may be, today we are fighting against them, in particular, for their future political, well, freedom and independence, and as for these ones... they will be caught, well, they will be caught all over the world, i have already said many times that criminals and war criminals during the post-world war ii period are still caught, well, they are found, framed and searched for until make sure that the person is no longer there, that's why there are all the conversations about the fact that there are ukrainian massats , i remember when the kid was appointed to a position, he talked about it, well, it works and will work, but you have to understand that after all

even the same masat, this nimizide operation , it was carried out only when all other tools for arresting and punishing the perpetrators of that terrible terrorist attack, which were committed against the citizens of israel, were exhausted, so there are many instrumental means, that some ukrainian snipers are leaving there and they are doing something, well, in principle, this is possible, but usually for this there is agent work in the cities, there are some groups of their own, and the main thing is that no one likes it when something happens on your... territory, in your jurisdiction, that i don’t agree with you, but i think that no one will have any objections to finding such characters and either extraditing or liquidating them, because no one wants to see all this human death on their territory, let’s not let's forget how the americans liquidated in pakistan, and how they conducted them

operations at bin laden itself, well, this is happening all over the world, i will tell you that perhaps a small fraction of everything that is happening does not get into the mass media at all, that is, it is not pr agencies, no how to say, no they definitely don't need advertising, mr. ivan, once we talked about karabakh, we can't help but mention that the prime minister of armenia pashinyan himself, he spoke quite harshly about the activities and effective work of the security service of ukraine, he considers it to be ineffective, he criticized it , if true. i remember, that's right i remember, he criticized the csto as early as at the congress of this organization in september of last year, and actually here again in his televised address he expressed his rather harsh position regarding the organization of the collective security agreement, in fact, are we likely to see any drastic actions in the near future among the management, maybe they...