[000:00:00;00] air strikes on the entire territory of the country, strikes on infrastructure, industry, etc., and generally unclear prospects for the state, how to continue state building in such conditions, the russians, on the one hand , of course, did not plan such a long war in advance, but after that, kiev it didn't work out in 3 days, and even after the retreat from... kharkiv region from kherson region, in principle, if you take a couple of steps back and look, the situation of russia at the front is not so bad, there is no the collapse of the front, there is no collapse of the russian army, the russian statehood, the enemies of moscow, in principle, it is possible to fight, that is why all these plans for the long game, all these already announced plans until the twenty -sixth year for building up the armed forces,

and we see the twisting of the military industry and the already announced figures of the increase in military expenditures, indeed, russia enters this long war of attrition in a better position than ukraine, because even the same shelling, for example, affects only a few border regions, of course, no one is flying deep into russia, and the whole question, indeed, is how much longer it is possible to continue like this, especially given that in terms of armament of military equipment, ukraine is almost completely dependent on the western allies, that is, speaking of depends on how they see the goal of this war, far from the amount that ukraine would like for itself, for some kind of decisive victory, this is all not enough, therefore everything precisely rests not so much on the possibility as such, but on the intentions, but in the case of the intentions of the western leaders in the first place turn, in the united states, and here again, additional political points, we are entering the pre-election period in the united states, in principle, any war is primarily

a political matter. then already a military one, but this specific war is even more so, precisely because ukraine is almost completely dependent on the western allies, they themselves do not fight, therefore they are guided not so much by military reasons as by political reasons, so we will see, indeed, in which direction their desires will go regarding that how do they see what is called the end game of this war, in which direction is it pushing, is it, for example, theoretically speaking, pushing the ukrainian leadership to go to some... or in the other direction, they can theoretically say that it is permissible, even this summer offensive did not bring such results as we wanted, but in principle the war is not yet lost, we will continue to supply weapons, for example, for the next summer offensive, we will allocate so many other things, but this must be resolved first

western leadership, this is not so much a military as a political issue, we still do not know how the same abrams m1 tanks will be used, yes, but as if the process has started, yes, i want to believe that their number will increase there, i don’t know, from a dozen units to several hundred, but this, as you rightly noted, will depend largely on the plans of the united states, on the other hand, there are chances of receiving cassette etekems, and here the key story is that america can overcome this psychological threshold, yes, because etecoms is extremely...' seriously, although we understand various modifications and so on, well, but what concerns the south , cassette attacks would be very, very good, in principle, you can say, i stretch my legs, the same as storm shadow, and the scalps were also not placed, but they do not fully prove their usefulness if you add more kms to them, an additional, additional plus

, perhaps for ukraine in that you do not need to use airplanes for them, they are launched from ground-based aimars, perhaps it will be easier for ukraine, in any case case, not for nothing ukraine has been asking for ecms for a long time, in principle, for a reason, the united states has not yet given it, apparently both sides agree that it will bring a positive effect, and perhaps so positive that the united states are afraid of escalation, that is why they do not give it, that is, not giving shows that a lot is given to it. importance, but on the other hand, it is still necessary to emphasize once again that this is not something by itself, it will not solve the war, but it is another plus, an additional plus, let's say, an impact on the southern front, because russia is too far from the front, they still have schedules and they can’t pull it off, because sooner or later they won’t be able to reach the sea, so they have limitations, they can reach all this depth, so we’ll really see

will they go to the front in the near future, because information every day... they already promised, no, they didn't promise , in fact they already gave them, they just don't want to be told, but in any case, the application as such was not visible at the front yet would, so let's see if they still are will arrive, be applied, then we will already be able to really see, no longer theoretically, but practically, dear mr. handelman , how in your opinion, under the current circumstances , the breakthrough of the enemy's front line could look like, because it is complicated by the fact that the entire territory, the entire perimeter mined, we understand that the russians, well, their key, main task is to stop the offensive impulse, so that it is possible to move on to some actions of their own, possibly counter-offensive. plan, but in any case we understand that logistics russia is collapsing, gradually, but collapsing, and if, for example, the so-called railway part of the tokmak is destroyed, the russians may have additional big

problems. after the first requests in june, when the ukrainian command saw that it was not really possible to make a quick breakthrough, then the dilemma arose, either to curtail the offensive completely, or to switch to the tactics of slow procrastination. decided that it is better slowly than not at all, so now it is also difficult to expect that the russians will suddenly run out of strength, and this will allow some a quick breakthrough and exit to the operational space, while the slow penetration continues, also in principle a couple of hundred meters , according to the same principle, it is better slowly, how about, indeed, if it was possible at least, then it could be considered partially. this offensive, as for the transition to a counteroffensive for the russians right now, is far from a fact, if they have more or less enough for defense, for an offensive they need much more, first of all military equipment, it is not a fact that they are already

ready in this regard now, especially if these are 18-25 armies already hastily, unformed, rush to the front even at the stage of defense, it is not a fact that even if the ukrainian offensive stops in the near future, and it is not a fact that the russians, purely physically, will be able to carry out some kind of massive offensive in the near future, in other areas, as in the same kupinsk and limansk direction, we saw the offensive demands of the russians, there in general they have a rather large grouping in the kupinsk-imblemsk direction in total, more than 100,000 and 800-900 tanks further, we have not seen any great successes of the russian offensive, that is, precisely in terms of the prospects of the russian offensive... their chances are not particularly great, but the problem for ukraine is that it is now counting on the success of its own offensive, therefore let's see when it finally ends, how exactly it ends, what achievements there will be, even without

the russians immediately going on the offensive, if , for example, there are no significant results, that is, the end of our offensive impulse does not mean that the russians have the strength and equipment, well, it is said there, i do not know about the personnel and additional mechanized units, thanks to which they could, for example, open a new additional section of the front. in general, we can see that the lemano-kupyan axis that they wanted to form has basically stuck, but maybe they would start trying to roll out additional sections of the front? the question is, where exactly, now, in principle , the russians are now conducting strategic defense in the south, and they are also defending on in the bakhmut direction, they are conducting offensive offensives on kupinskoye without much success so far, so if they go somewhere to conduct offensive actions, it will be on one, on one of the active sections of the front, expect that they will open some new direction,

for example, through the dnieper or through belarus, this is extremely unlikely, because, in principle, it is not very profitable from all sides in terms of logistics, first of all, so if they enter somewhere, it will simply increase offensive demands there... already are headed, that is, in the north-eastern kupyan, lyman direction, but let's see, first of all, how this phase of the war will end , after all, we still don't know how the ukrainian command wants to use these 10 brigades, which are now preparing, perhaps they will want to leave let's say a permanent offensive, if the ukrainian command decides not to stop its offensive in the winter, then the russians will still not be up to their offensive, if ukraine continues... its offensive, then automatically the russians they will be forced to defend themselves there, and perhaps they simply will not have enough strength for some other area, and for their own offensive, everything depends on the results

, on the desire of the ukrainian command , depending on these results, to continue or not to continue their offensive operation after the autumn breakup, possibly even during well, it’s clear that it will be even slower than... if we talk about the use of mechanized units, what about mechanized units, in particular, we are talking about leopards and american abrams. we understand that there is a front line, it is mined, on the other hand, we understand that the guns and our fighters are working extremely successfully, i don't know if it's interesting or not, just this war, once again shows that quality is not so important in this war , what is the quantity and the main benefit of the same leopards, then the abrams, when they do not yield, not in some quality , how much they specifically shoot there and what are

the millimeters of armor penetration, etc. let it be more, this war will swallow even more than that amount, in principle, even the same leopards we have already seen, they are also like any other tank, they also fight back, they also talk, there is no such thing as a miracle of tanks, and challengers are all the same it will all depend on the quantity, not on the quality, purely here again, before them a purely military political resume, now, if it is 31 abram really... going, then it is clear that if desired, the united states, unlike europe, in which is really no longer the case there are a lot of people left, the united states could, if it wanted, take out of its pocket not 30, but 300 obromtsov, and ukraine would find for them tankers, mechanics, etc., but the united states does not want, they hold back, that is why, in principle, the problem even in principle, there are two combined problems here, one of them is that it is clear that in those conditions ...

it is difficult for the southern front, as it is, to use large mechanized forces, but the very fact that there are not many tanks makes them more economical, if there were more of them, then maybe ukrainian the command once again thought about the possibility of some kind of major breakthrough, but it is clear that there are several aspects acting simultaneously on all these aspects of the totality, it was decided to act mainly in small infantry groups, and armored vehicles mainly support them. but here and there we see the message that where possible , even if it is small units , they still use armored vehicles, then we will see if it will really be possible to break through these lines of defense, to get more or less into the operational space, if it at all possible in the conditions of such slow progress, let’s see, but in any case , in general and in general, regarding technology, it should be emphasized once again that in this war , quantity is much more important than quality, dear david, at one time you said without a doubt a prophetic

phrase, so russia : did not prepare for and did not expect such a war, no one certainly did, in particular, it is about the situation in the sky , so we understand that the russians prevail, but despite this, our counteroffensive is developing, on the other hand, drones, unmanned, lethal, including naval, even drones, they are starting to play an increasingly important role, on the other hand, we understand, they are increasing the production of drones, i think they have already established the production of iranian products and not only iranian products. if we are talking specifically about drones, then in general, if at the beginning of the war, ukraine had an advantage, the russians lacked drones in the first place, again in the quantitative aspect, because in principle , they had individual copies of almost the entire line, that’s all. they had what was needed, but it was banally not enough, it was not enough for such a big war, so they urgently turned to a few months after the start of the war, iran

closed as much as possible, partially, of course, but closed the bottlenecks for the russians in this area, and then over the past time, russia has so developed all this the field of unmanned aerial vehicles of all kinds, that now it has basically bypassed ukraine at the turn, this whole topic, the lancet and fpv, russia has now already moved forward, if ukraine does not... withdraw its capabilities in terms of the production of such purchases and other things, then in general this war, as it is, it is going on, now the trend towards a war of drones is unfavorable for ukraine, joint production in poland, in principle in ukraine itself, if desired , it was also possible to create even an underground production in a year and a half, well perhaps, this is also being done, for obvious reasons, it does not get into the open press, because immediately after this, russian gifts are flying for this

production, it is clear that what is possible is being done, but if you look at it as a purely objective indicator of how it looks at the front, russia has come forward, in your opinion, where would the new minister of defense umerov and the new team of the ministry should make maximum efforts now, that is, in which areas of what is called the work of the ministry of defense, where should they speed up, in principle it is understood no.. they themselves know everything very well, they have a list of tasks, but the ministry of defense, in fact, its task is not to fight, but to prepare everything for the army, logistics and planning, yes, yes, yes, everything, named everything for the front, everything for victory, in first turn military production, including in cooperation with the allies, precisely because if it is possible to transfer at least part of the production abroad, where it will not be attacked, this, of course, must be done, it is partially already being done and even partially it has already been announced in the press , as - danilov said that at least part

of ukraine's rocket production is carried out abroad, it is clear that what can be done far away, not everything gets into the press, but the fact itself, if there are still... grounds, then despite all the objective reasons, this means that it is necessary to strengthen even more, up to necessarily more science-intensive, let's say, the production of rockets for the same mortars, which at one time was not for nothing in the entire ukrainian army with a splash on the internet about the fact that there is an extreme shortage of mortars. recently, we have seen reports that apparently this topic has been taken up more actively, it seems that there have been more of them, but in any case, we need to do it again... well, by the way, these are not planes, not tanks, in principle, it is not difficult to produce, and it is strange why it appeared at all such a topic, the shortage of mortars, it would seem that in the first hour it was possible to produce much more, it is clear that in principle everyone knows the list of tasks, the only thing left is to just take it and do it, it is clear that

it is easy to say, but in principle, if it is not to activate, then no excuses will help, that it was difficult, that they could not, that they did not manage. that ukraine will lose, because of this no one will be interested in these excuses and explanations, finally , david, do you see any prospect of what russia can raise the level of escalation in one way or another, in particular, it may be about the use of ballistic missiles, in principle ballistic missiles are already in use, iskanders exist both in the form of cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, in principle this topic started an hour ago. now she got a second wind, about the fact that, in addition to the martyrs, russia will probably buy from iran also medium-range ballistic missiles, possibly the atah 110 or zulfikar, an hour ago this topic was actively

discussed, then, apparently, by those or those for some reason, it was still not possible to obtain this uranium, but next month the next restriction imposed on iran in terms of... trade in missile weapons, on this topic, it is quite possible to expect that perhaps in the near future we will once again hear news about iran hockey for russia, if indeed it will happen, then it is unlikely that there will be individual copies, if there are already deliveries, most likely it will be about at least dozens, if not hundreds, of iran, in this area of ​​ballistic missiles, as well as in the field of unmanned aerial vehicles, it has advanced very far since the eighties, in particular because they have big problems with air defense systems . therefore , they invested in other aerial regional missiles and drones. it's only going to get worse before we get there. thank you very much, david, for this extremely interesting and honest conversation, i want to remind our viewers that

david handelman, an israeli, was currently working for them on espresso military expert. our program time is up, stay. channel espresso. my colleagues will analyze the most important events of the day. take care of yourself and your loved ones. see you on air. a week of high debates at the un general assembly in new york. the presidents of ukraine and poland cancel the planned meeting at the last moment. the official reason is delays in the schedule of leaders' speeches at the un. it is disturbing to see how some in europe play solidarity in political theater by transforming. supplying grain to the thriller may seem like they are playing their own part, but in fact, they help set the stage for the moscow actor. in response , polish president andrzej duda made a statement that added even more fuel to the fire. in particular, because of a not very accurate translation, because he compared ukraine to a drowning man, not

a drowning man. we are dealing with something like a drowning man. anyone who has even once participated in the rescue of such a person knows that it is not... of course dangerous, because it can drag you to the depths, it has incredible power due to personal fear, the release of adrenaline and can simply drown the savior, it is a bit like the situation between poland and ukraine. the exchange of harsh statements in absentia left a depressing impression, and mutual claims took on a threatening scale. kyiv filed a lawsuit against poland at the world trade organization. in warsaw, they announced their intention to reduce social support for ukrainian refugees, and prime minister mateusz morawiecki's statement that poland will no longer supply kyiv with weapons, as it needs them itself, became a national concern. she surprised not only ukraine and the united states, but also, as they write. media and polish ministry of foreign affairs. president duda tried to soften the effect, saying that the prime minister was misunderstood, it was about new types of weapons

that warsaw is currently actively buying from the usa and south korea. however, many observers thought that the tension in the relations between the two countries was developing into a deep crisis. and i invite the president of the republic of poland, andrzej duda, to speak. after the start of the full-scale invasion, poland acted as one of ukraine's biggest allies. in the first months, it gave us tanks, armored vehicles, planes and ammunition, accepted more than a million refugees and gave them maximum support. after all, it became a key hub through which western weapons enter our country. against the background of a full-scale war, ukrainian-polish relations experienced a honeymoon. for decades, and maybe, god forbid, for... centuries, we will have a fraternal state for poland and , as i hope, prophetically, said zelensky, there will be no

more borders between our countries, poland and ukraine, so that we live together on this land, building and rebuilding their common happiness and common strength, which will allow to repel any danger or any possible threat but the border appeared and very quickly, on the night of april 16, 2023, poland unilaterally and without warning. banned not only the import , but also the transit of practically all ukrainian agricultural products, grain, milk, vegetables, honey , tansy oil, the piquancy of the decision was added by the list of exceptions to which the ban was not extended, bananas, olives and rice. warsaw did not even hide that it did it for political reasons. parliamentary elections will be held in the country on october 15, and the ruling law and justice party wants to maintain support of the polish countryside and polish farmers, dissatisfied with the influx of... products into the local market since the beginning of the large-scale invasion, when the eu, as a sign of solidarity and under the conditions of the blockade of black sea ports

, canceled all tariffs and restrictions on domestic agricultural products. the reason is the symmetry between polish and ukrainian agriculture. it is about the quality of the land and the fact that international companies with extensive infrastructure work in ukraine on huge areas. therefore, the government's decision in favor of the polish countryside and polish farmers, but kyiv should also be interested so that our government does not change and that new people do not revise the policy of radical aid to ukraine. following poland , hungary, slovakia, romania and bulgaria introduced a similar embargo. this decision contradicted the rules of the eu, because the bloc must implement a common customs policy , the european commission took on the task of extinguishing the trade fire, but it turned out so-so, as if a compromise decision until september 15 banned the import of ukrainian agricultural products to all eu countries, but allowed it to transit the territory of the european union. however, even after this date, the poles together with the hungarians and slovaks

decided to extend the embargo. such concern was not appreciated in kyiv. if poland and hungary do not agree to coordinate measures with the european commission and do not cancel unilateral bans on our goods, we will make a decision to ban the import of certain categories of goods from the specified countries into ukraine. further blocking of our agricultural exports by neighboring countries will hit the ukrainian economy, finances, tax revenues and jobs. denis shmehal, prime minister of ukraine. what happens next? pre-election polls show that law and justice will gain the most votes, but will not be able to form a government on its own. negotiations may drag on and even lead to another election. probably, all this time the ban on the import of ukrainian agricultural products will remain in effect one way or another. but the problem may turn out to be even bigger. for decades, poland was considered ukraine's advocate in the eu. despite the open resistance of western european

countries, primarily germany and france, warsaw consistently defended kyiv's membership in the european union. now before our eyes, the lawyer turns into a prosecutor. against the background of bloomberg's report on the european commission's intention to announce the start of negotiations on ukraine's accession to the eu, the polish minister of agriculture stated his intention to block this process if the issue of ukrainian grain exports is not settled once and for all. if we do not create these instruments today, poland will definitely not agree to ukraine's accession to the european union. when poland joined the eu, we had to fulfill very strict conditions. now we must put forward conditions for ukraine. for more than 30 years, the biggest problem in ukrainian-polish relations has been the issue of historical memory. kyiv and warsaw argued about the policy of pacification. ukrainians in interwar poland, the events in volyn in 1943, stepan bandera and the role of up, but now instead of a superstructure, the basis appears -

economic relations. a large part. of the eu multi-level budget are subsidies to agriculture. if ukraine becomes a member of the european union , a fifth of all agricultural lands of the bloc will be concentrated on its territory. today, 18 of the 27 eu members receive more from the bloc than they give. according to western publications, in the event of ukraine's accession, there will be at most five such subsidized countries. do you want to wake up rested? full of strength, but the whole body hurts all the time from the old mattress, you can't find a comfortable position on the sofa, you can't help but turn , you need to improve your sleeping place , meet the new product from matalight experts, a washable solution to the problem of an uncomfortable sofa or an old mattress at a good price, for only 999 uah. old sofas, uneven mattresses,

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